The lowest price of bitcoin in 2018
When bitcoin first appeared in 2009, its price was less than 1 cent. One dollar could be converted into 1300 bitcoins, that is to say, seven yuan could be converted into 1300 bitcoins
on May 5, 2017, bitfinex, an overseas digital currency trading platform, quoted a price. Bitcoin once hit US $1700, about RMB 11737
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in China, some Taobao stores have also begun to accept the use of bitcoin, and businesses will graally increase
in October 2013, the first bitcoin quarterly, one bit, was released
on October 15, 2013, the network accelerator service of the network announced its support for bitcoin
on October 26, 2013, btcmini reported that GBL was hacked
on October 31, 2013, Lei Teng, a famous Internet lawyer, proposed the event of "filing a case to investigate the closure of GBL bitcoin trading platform as soon as possible", analyzed the "value function" and "use function" of bitcoin, and bitcoin should be governed by relevant laws
on December 5, 2013, notice of the Ministry of instry and information technology of the people's Bank of China, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission on preventing bitcoin risk: bitcoin is a specific virtual commodity; Bitcoin trading is a kind of commodity trading on the Internet. Ordinary people have the freedom to participate in it at their own risk
on September 4, 2017, the announcement of the people's Bank of China Central Network Information Office, Ministry of instry and information technology, State Administration for Instry and commerce, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission on preventing the risk of token issuance financing: it is prohibited to engage in token issuance financing activities (ICO)
the trading platform shall not engage in the exchange business between legal tender and token, or virtual currency, or buy or sell token or virtual currency as a central counter party, or provide pricing, information intermediary and other services for token or virtual currency
on November 2, 2018, the people's Bank of China released the 12th topic of China financial stability report 2018, which talked about "encrypted assets"
"Spring Festival red envelope" refers to the rising market of bitcoin ring the Spring Festival. Big V jiangzhuo'er once predicted the end of bitcoin on Weibo, and then it stopped the sharp decline since November 2018 and began to shock. In the same microblog, it was also mentioned that bitcoin bottomed out before the Spring Festival, which was thought by fans to be very likely to come true
latest bitcoin Market:
bitcoin (BTC) market_ Golden Finance
24459.78 & # 160; RMB 53.02 + 0.22%
02-11 14:27 Trading
In 2009, when bitcoin first appeared, one dollar could buy 1300 bitcoins. In 2010, it was only $0.003. In November 2013, the highest price created by bitcoin reached 8000 yuan for the first time. In 2017, bitcoin's price rose wildly. In this year, bitcoin once created the highest price in history, with the highest value of about 20000 US dollars
that is to say, a bitcoin costs about 130000 yuan. According to the proportion, bitcoin has soared by 2.73 million times in eight years, becoming a well deserved proct with huge profits. According to the data of coindesk digital currency trading platform, the price of bitcoin once fell below $6000 in 18 years, and it has dropped 70% compared with the highest value of $20000 in 2017
with the decline of bitcoin, many digital currencies have been affected, with a decline of more than 10%. It has been less than 10 years since the development of digital currency. Many large enterprises can't compare with it. It can be seen that the future of digital currency is worth looking forward to
there are many unsuccessful currencies in history, such as the Deutschmark in the Weimar Republic and, more recently, the Zimbabwean dollar. Although previous currency failures were usually e to over inflation that could not happen on bitcoin, there were always potential technical errors, currency competition and political problems. The basic lesson is that no currency can be considered absolutely safe from failure or difficult times. Bitcoin has been proven reliable for several years since its birth, and it has great potential to continue to grow. But no one can predict the future of bitcoin< The rapid rise in price of BR />
does not constitute a bubble. Artificial overestimation will lead to a sudden downward revision, which will form a bubble. The price fluctuation of bitcoin caused by the indivial behavior of thousands of market participants is the result of the market determining the price. From the emotional point of view, the reasons for price changes include: the loss of confidence in bitcoin, the huge difference between price and value not based on the fundamentals of bitcoin economy, more and more news reports stimulating speculative demand, fear of uncertainty, and outdated irrational prosperity and greed.
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according to the bitcoin market on cailu.com, the current price of bitcoin is $3386, with a drop of more than 10% in 24 hours and more than 40% in 7 days
generally speaking, the value of money depends on its activity: the central bank prints a lot of money and puts it into the economy with high-speed monetary activity. Therefore, we find that if the value of money decreases, we will be more inclined to sell in the future, resulting in a further decline in the quoted price. This cycle will lead to a runaway effect
for bitcoin, there is no high speed activity of bitcoin. Only the speculative bubble burst, and the quotations get closer to the mall balance point. This leads to a humorous question: where is the balance? First of all, let's make some assumptions. If in the future, no one in the world will hoard bitcoin at all: no one believes that bitcoin will rise, but will only fall in the future. Therefore, in the near future, we will only purchase procts by purchasing just enough bitcoin. In this way, the quotation of bitcoin depends entirely on the demand (the amount of bitcoin that people spend on purchasing procts and services) and the supply (the amount of bitcoin that exists). We are going to test to set up a lower bound: there will be some conjecture data in it, so we are going to choose the more extreme (disappointed) data. Data results are relatively small, and are affected by many factors, but data results can let us roughly know the magnitude of the answer to the question. In addition, we have the same assumption that everyone has lost interest in all counterfeit coins: we only pay attention to the bitcoin quotation supported by the bitcoin demand brought by real procts and services, that is to say, we do not use the statistical data of business channels to count the demand
let's get started. It is an excellent representative of the total demand of bitcoin for procts and services. It is the total activity of coinbase and bitpay, the two largest bitcoin payment processors in the bitcoin instry. Of course, bitcoin for procts and services also occurs in other places (this does not include the bitcoin compensation paid by some companies). The total bitcoin traffic of these two payment processors can exceed 50% of the bitcoin demand in all bitcoin businesses: the service of all large-scale commercial bitcoin transactions is coinbase or bitpay
surprisingly, neither coinbase nor bitpay clearly revealed their detailed business data. Fortunately, we can make a reasonable and accurate guess about the implied meaning of some articles announced by them. For example, we know that bitpay's business volume in 2013 was $100 million, and we also know that its business volume in 2012 was $3 million. Bitpay was founded in 2011, so we can reasonably guess that the total business volume of bitpay at the end of 2013 will be at least $94 million. Coinbase didn't disclose similar data, but both sides made clear the detailed number of cooperative businesses: bitpay is "more than 30000 businesses", coinbase is "31000 businesses". If we assume that the average bitcoin business volume of each of the two payment processors is similar, then the revenue of coinbase and bitpay are very similar. Let's calculate according to this. They are all US $100 million per year, or the remaining 50% of bitcoin needs that do not flow through coinbase and bitpay will bring us $300 million per year. In fact, since it is almost certain that there will be a continuous increase in 2014, these figures are likely to be higher. Since it is difficult to evaluate the detailed increase, let's leave it alone and simply assume that it will be $300 million in 2014
according to the current quotation of bitcoin (US $474), the total value of bitcoin mall is about US $6 billion, so US $300 million only accounts for 5%. That is to say, 95% of the total demand for bitcoin is speculative. Therefore, our estimation of the lower bound of bitcoin price is 23 US dollars. At this moment, the natural market's strength will prevent the price from further falling
let's analyze the above achievements reasonably. Our approximate data comes from bitpay and coinbase's bitcoin traffic (2013), and the bitcoin traffic of the three major business channels is accounted for by the partners working in coindesk. The channel traffic of bitcoin business is mainly speculative business (and counterfeit money business), which can hardly represent the business needs of bitcoin brought by any procts and services. At the same time, the three major business channels in the world (Mt. GOx, bitstamp, btc-e) account for 93% of the total amount of bitcoin shopping malls, and 7% are not included. We think that it is appropriate for the real commercial bitcoin demand to account for 5%
but will bitcoin really fall to $23? Very likely not. Let's assume that bitpay and coinbase did not increase in 2014, which is 100% wrong. Overstock, a US online retailer, Dell, a global PC retailer, and Xindan, a US e-commerce channel, announced in 2014 that they had accepted bitcoin payment, so the real amount could be several times higher. In addition, no one can store bitcoin and counterfeit coins at all. Therefore, this achievement is likely to be far lower than the low bound of the actual quotation, but it also gives us a general idea of where the equilibrium point of the market can exist, and the current bitcoin quotation is actually unsustainable.