Views on the future development trend of bitcoin
In terms of technological innovation, people who know blockchain are very supportive; About the future trend of bitcoin, as the earliest blockchain proct, it has been basically in the market. As for how big a pie there will be in the future, you can see my share
[John McPhee, the head of IBM and the board of directors of PayPal all predict that bitcoin will reach $1 million]
in recent days, the market has slowed down temporarily. However, this has not deterred investors. As previously reported, although some bearish pressure is forming, bulls have responded well and kept prices stable
since bitcoin failed to break through $5450, bitcoin bulls have kept the price above $5000. Recently, after a stable weekend, there was almost no report on the price trend, and the market rose appropriately. Now all attention is turning to $5200 as the next key target, and finally retesting the resistance level of $5450
as of April 15, the marginal revenue of bitcoin was less than 2%, and the transaction price was $5160. Earlier in the day, it had risen to a high of $5193, but failed to reach the target of $5200
Then bitcoin fell back to US $5157. The high degree of stability and flexibility that bulls maintain and push prices up shows how strong the current bull market is. As long as bitcoin can remain above $5000 and avoid a sharp correction, the bullish trend will continue to get more support and push prices higherthe price of bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million
a few weeks after PayPal first invested in blockchain technology, its latest board of directors made a bold price forecast for bitcoin. Wences Casares, a member of PayPal's board, said bitcoin could reach $1 million in the next 10 years. IBM blockchain & amp; Jesse Lund and John McAfee, directors of digital currency, have also made such predictions, which many believe are overconfident
in my (subjective) opinion, the chance of success is at least 50%. If bitcoin really succeeds, a bitcoin could be worth more than $1 million in seven to 10 years
the growth of bitcoin has driven Shanzhai coin
with the rise of bitcoin, most Shanzhai coins are also rising. Although the income is relatively low, most Shanzhai coins have about 1% to 4% income, but this growth is likely to continue
before the deadline, lightcoin's LTC was one of the best performing currencies. In the past few weeks, the performance of this coin has been extraordinary, which seems to determine the price trend of Shanzhai coin again
XRP and eth are also on the rise, but the marginal returns are 0.30% and 1.26% respectively. XRP's short-term goal is to return above $0.33, and its long-term goal is above $0.4. On the other hand, ETH hopes to climb back to more than $170, becoming its next target, and its preferred position is more than $190
blockchain is the underlying system of distributed ledger in bitcoin. Bitcoin ledgers are built in a distributed and spontaneous way. Anyone can generate new currency blocks by performing specific cryptographic calculations, so as to obtain a digital "currency" that can be used for transactions. Bitcoin's impact on the world monetary system can be said to be subversive, which is also an important reason why it has attracted a lot of people's strong attention since it came out. After that, there were dozens of similar electronic currencies such as
"lightcoin". The abstract extraction of distributed digital currency technology from bitcoin forms a "blockchain" technology, which can be used in more fields
bitcoin and other virtual digital currencies are only an application scenario of blockchain technology. Theoretically speaking, based on the characteristics of blockchain technology, human beings can create a very rich form of services and procts. There are a large number of scenarios in finance, government, enterprises, cross instry and other fields, which are suitable for blockchain technology and have broad prospects. At present, many countries around the world have started the research of blockchain technology, and a series of instry organizations and alliances have been established. However, as blockchain technology is a brand-new technology, which subverts the traditional centralized mode, major institutions are still in the research stage, with only a small number of actual projects landing, and the great development of the instry has just begun
now, blockchain economy is on the eve of outbreak. The exploration of financial instry is ahead of others, while the application of other instries is developing rapidly. The obvious advantage of blockchain instry application is to optimize business process, rece operation cost and improve collaborative efficiency. This advantage has been graally reflected in financial services, Internet of things, public services, social welfare and supply chain management
as the backbone of emerging technologies, blockchain is not only used in the field of virtual currency, but also in other fields such as finance, medical care, intellectual property certification, etc. a large number of excellent enterprises have emerged in China to explore or enter the blockchain instry. According to the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry released by foresight Instry Research Institute, as of the end of 2016, there were 105 blockchain related enterprises in China, 80% of which were concentrated in eastern coastal cities, including Shanghai, Hangzhou and Taipei
trustworthiness is the core requirement of blockchain, and the importance of standards and specifications is becoming increasingly prominent
in the future value delivery network based on blockchain, we will completely use algorithms and software to build the trust foundation. However, we believe that this is far from enough, and we need the standard to increase the credibility of the blockchain. In the future, the standard of blockchain will standardize the technology and governance of blockchain from the perspective of users, business oriented, and from the dimensions of smart contract, consensus mechanism, private key security, and authority management, so as to enhance the credibility of blockchain and add weight to the trust of blockchain.
however, coin pack believes that there are risks as well as benefits; Because income and risk exist at the same time
this is similar to the stock market, there must be high risk while obtaining high returns
but bitcoin is proced by bitcoin software system based on P2P network; If there is a new currency software system, and users generally accept it, it may have a certain impact compared with the special currency.
Bitcoin as a new thing, its existence has its value application, but it is only limited in its era. So if we look at the big time cycle, there are only two forms of bitcoin in the future. One is hidden in the long river of history, and the other is in the era of digital currency, which can lead to the existence of this special value of borderless and creditless endorsement. At that time, a bitcoin may be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars
up to now, bitcoin has been born for more than 10 years, and there have been four big bull markets in these 10 years, but the mission of bitcoin has been achieved to a certain extent, that is, a currency without borders and value endorsement has formed a certain consensus, and led the blockchain technology to the world. So far, the price of bitcoin has been maintained at around us $12000, which is a certain amount different from its previous record high of US $20000. However, whether it can set off a bigger blockchain bull market in the future still needs to wait< br />
bitcoin price has been cut by the waist
how to implement blockchain application is still the main problem. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage. Looking back to the second half of 2017, the price of bitcoin almost reached a new high every day, and finally reached the peak in the South Korean exchange with the highest premium in the world - about 140000 yuan per piece. On June 3, 2018, as of press time, coinbase bitcoin trading platform quoted 49688 yuan, and the price of bitcoin has been cut. Since the beginning of this year, the price of bitcoin has rarely seen eye popping ups and downs, and the overall trend of monthly decline
bitcoin development status
according to the data of the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of the blockchain instry released by the foresight Instry Research Institute, bitcoin prices showed a downward trend in May, with the overall market value falling from US $157.3 billion at the beginning of the month to US $127.4 billion at the end of the month, a decrease of 19%; In addition, there are 444000 active addresses and 197000 transfers per day. From the trend point of view, the number of active addresses and daily transfers are positively correlated with the transaction price. In May, the overall trend is volatile, and the downward trend is very obvious
reasons for the steady decline of bitcoin in the past half year
how to understand the "steady decline" of bitcoin in the past half year? There are two main reasons: firstly, the most important reason is that institutional investors and speculators who have accumulated a large number of "profit" are cashing in their profits and leaving the market; Secondly, before the blockchain instry has no real application and profit model, the rise of bitcoin price can only be regarded as speculative speculation. In addition, it is an undeniable fact that the Central Bank of China has made a decisive move to close the bitcoin trading platform, which has achieved remarkable results in preventing bitcoin speculation
at present, the domestic bitcoin exchanges have basically moved to foreign countries, which has nothing to do with China. Investors operate on those platforms at their own risk
the current market is not very good. Only when the market is good, can investors find ways to participate in bitcoin investment. As the total market value of the coin circle is still small, with more blockchain applications, there is still potential in the future
over consumed blockchain
e to the "tepid" price of bitcoin, blockchain, as its underlying technology, has reached the level of "known to all women and children", and even surpassed bitcoin in recent years
recently, a series of related reports are suspected of making up for the number and full of hype, and blockchain has obviously been over consumed. In addition to bitcoin, the large-scale application of blockchain in other scenarios has not yet reached the commercial stage
with the graal deepening of the understanding of blockchain technology, domestic enterprises have laid out blockchain technology, platforms and applications, including Internet enterprises such as network, Tencent, Ali, Jingdong, Netease, major banks, financial enterprises such as Ping An of China and Huawei. In terms of application, China actively explores and promotes blockchain + applications in the form of alliance chain and private chain to help solve the pain points of related instries, improve efficiency and rece costs.
bitcoin has entered the downward channel, showing a cliff like decline
since then, bitcoin has entered the downward channel, and the myth of bitcoin's sudden wealth is being shattered. According to the latest data of the "in depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry" released by foresight Instry Research Institute, on June 25, bitcoin fell to US $6160. The previous trading day, bitcoin fell below US $6000, a new low in the past six months. Compared with the record high of US $19187 in December 2017, the decline was as high as 68%
the total number of bitcoin is 21 million. According to this estimate, the total market value of bitcoin in December last year was as high as US $402.9 billion, and now it has shrunk to 129.36 billion yuan. In the past six months, the total market value of bitcoin has evaporated US $273.567 billion, which is about 1.79 trillion yuan at the current exchange rate
at the same time, other cryptocurrencies also fell. Ethereum eth has dropped from a peak of $1350 at the beginning of the year to around $454.9 at present, with a cumulative decline of 66%. The LTC of Leyte currency dropped from the highest of $342.25 in December last year to the current $80.99, with a cumulative decline of 76.34%
the negative feedback of price decline is being transmitted in the instrial chain. Under the pressure of cryptocurrency market price, bitmain and Canaan, the top two Chinese manufacturers of bitcoin mining machines, may cut 50% of the orders of chip companies TSMC and Samsung Electronics
stricter supervision is a sign of chaos
stricter supervision worldwide is the main reason for the sharp decline of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin
on June 22, Japan's Finance Department officially issued an order to improve the business of six cryptocurrency exchanges, including bitflyer, quoine, bitpointjapan, bitbank, btcbox6 and tech
Bureau
bitflyer, Japan's largest digital currency exchange, immediately suspended the opening of new accounts and carried out rectification, especially in its anti money laundering and control of terrorist funds. Japan has developed into one of the largest bitcoin trading markets. As soon as the news came out, the price of bitcoin fell to a new half year low
on June 10, coinrail, the cryptocurrency exchange of South Korea, said that its system had suffered "network intrusion", which also led to a sharp drop in bitcoin after its opening
judging from the change of regulatory attitude, countries have previously held an open and embracing attitude towards blockchain technology. However, with the rising price of bitcoin and the increasing use of ICO for illegal financing, the application of blockchain technology has "deteriorated", the speculative activities have increased significantly, and the cross-border capital outflow has been boosted, The attitude of regulators is also changing
the tightening of supervision will lead to the shrinkage of trading volume and the decline of activity, because the pricing mechanism of bitcoin price is highly positively correlated with the number of participants, which will lead to the decline of bitcoin price. Of course, we don't think bitcoin or digital currency will die out. As long as there is a trading caliber in the world, bitcoin will not die out. It's just a decline in valuation
blockchain technology - a potential change technology in the future
the "hype" capital of bitcoin represents the capital with strong risk preference in the financial market. Bitcoin is characterized by decentralization. As a distributed virtual currency, bitcoin is charged by users independently, and there is no unified regulatory core, such as the Central Bank of each major economy that supervises legal currency. Moreover, the development of bitcoin markets in different countries is different, so it is difficult to coordinate and supervise them. The characteristics of bitcoin make it more speculative
from the perspective of diffusion, bitcoin's recent sharp decline may be transmitted to risky assets such as stocks and commodities, which will depress the risk preference of the global capital market
block chain technology is not a bubble in itself, but bitcoin may be a bubble. Bitcoin is the first representative application of blockchain, but blockchain is not the same as bitcoin. The decentralized and distributed storage of blockchain technology has great application value. It is a potential new technology in the future. It is optimistic about the development of blockchain technology for a long time.
with the development of digital currency, bitcoin may continue to rise, but the public's doubts about it may not decrease although the price of bitcoin has reached a new high recently e to the continuous release of water by central banks, the controversy surrounding bitcoin has never stopped. The main reason is that the scale of bitcoin is still too small. It is easy to be manipulated by some large institutions, and the mood of some retail investors will fluctuate with it. Therefore, the rise and fall of bitcoin will be particularly large. Many investors enter the market, most of them still want short-term speculation and arbitrage, and few of them put long-term funds in the bitcoin market, And no one can guarantee its future development and prospects
However, it is still a question how long these funds can stay. Once the liquidity of the central bank shrinks, the funds of institutions are likely to flow out of bitcoin, and bitcoin may face a big drop. Therefore, the current bitcoin market is extremely immature, and it is easy to be affected by institutions