Bitcoin bull market conditions
the last time bitcoin was halved was in July 2016. We found that from July to December 2016, the price of bitcoin fluctuated between $500 and $700. Bitcoin halved block rewards in 2016, but it did not lead to a bull market that year
but in 2017, bitcoin began to rise unreasonably until it reached a new high of $20000 in December 2017
why? I think one of the most important aspects is the speculative frenzy triggered by Ethereum ICO, which has attracted a lot of funds from outside the currency circle. Due to the continuous pursuit of various ICO projects by funds from outside the circle, a large number of funds will enter the market, and the price will also rise, thus triggering a huge bull market
Rome was not built in a day. Ethereum ICO was not launched in 2017, but started to develop in 2016. Until its wealth effect begins to attract the attention of OTC funds, it will cause the prices of various currencies in the market to soar
according to this idea, let's continue to look at the bitcoin halving market in 2012:
at that time, bitcoin halving took place in November 2012. However, bitcoin did not break through $100 from November 2012 to July 2013 for a long time, which indicates that it did not enter the market of halving in the half year after halving. Until October 2013, the price of bitcoin began to rise from $200, and in December 2013, it hit more than $1000
▌ comparing the two bull markets, we can find two rules:
first, the half market will not come at the first time after the half market. The two halving prices are at least half a year after the halving. Before that, bitcoin did not rise significantly
secondly, if only bitcoin is halved and there is no other factor that can stimulate the market to rise, then the market brought by halving will not be as strong as expected
in the second half, the market was stimulated by the factor of Ethereum ICO and the half price of bitcoin itself, which made bitcoin rise from nearly $1000 to a new high of $20000, and the price of bitcoin directly increased by 20 times; When it was cut in half for the first time, no other factors were involved. The price of bitcoin only increased from $100 to $1000, a 10 fold increase
in addition to the two above, there is also a fuse that triggered the bull market. If we consider from this aspect, Ethereum ICO is obviously the fuse of bitcoin's second halving, and the fuse of bitcoin's first halving may be the curiosity of investors or investment institutions outside the circle caused by bitcoin's relatively low price and volatility. At that time, bitcoin of about $100 could control the price of bitcoin without too much capital. Once the speculative effect reached a certain level, it would lead to a continuous flow of follow-up funds, thus forming a bull market
as long as you have free money, you can start to invest on a fixed basis.
according to the history of bitcoin, someone has made a correlation model between halving and price. According to this model, the next time bitcoin halves, the price will exceed $10000 or even $100000.
analysis of the conditions and reasons for the bull market from October to December in 2017:
1. The 94 policy led to a large number of shanzhais being taken off the shelves, resulting in the rection of currency compression and the concentration of funds
2. The stop of RMB recharge has enabled BTC and eth tokens to circulate substantially in the digital currency trading market
3. In the medium term, there are thousands of currencies incubating private placement, and there is a demand of 100 billion funds for tokens
4. The expectation and numbness caused by the lack of understanding of the value of blockchain
5. The understanding of the cruelty of financial transactions is simple, and the mode transformation from 2017 to 2018 is not understood (the spot price rises continuously, and the futures hedging price fluctuates)
6. The market lacks understanding of the financial financing (currency) routines of incubation, early bird and private placement (for example, the price of private placement has expanded 5-10 times or even dozens of times since incubation)
7. The derivatives of a large number of forked coins and candy promotion promoted the bull market
in May and June of the year 18, the public chain was hot, and the financiers cooperated with EOS's favorable main network and node election to pull the market as soon as possible, which drove the market mood and completed a calf
whether the future market is bull or not, brother Zhu thinks that September and October should digest part of the smashing market in July and August and be bullish. The rise of LBTC has little effect on it, and there is more than one LBTC rising fiercely from low to high
to sum up, LBTC is the initiator. It's right to say that the price will rise to 1000 yuan. It depends on the time. It's unlikely to rise in 19 years, but as an investment for the future, it's entirely possible for LBTC to rise to 1000 yuan.
Bitcoin's surge is just a short-term phenomenon. In the past, bitcoin was really hot, which made many people crazy, but its hot period has passed. At present, the sudden rise of bitcoin is obviously a kind of hype by some people who hold a lot of bitcoin. Their purpose is also very pure, through this way to attract more retail investors to invest, and then they start to make crazy profits. Don't be attracted by the heat
in fact, when it comes to bitcoin, many people may not know what it is, but the only thing people value is that it can make money, which reflects the phenomenon that people blindly follow the trend of investment. The risk of investment market is big, but the profit is also big, which requires our investors to recognize the hero. Let your own investment knowledge enrich, so that you know investment like the palm of your hand, and you won't be blind
the popularity of bitcoin will soon disappear, and it must not be speculated and invested by some people
the era of bull market has long passed, so investment should be cautious
The soaring price of bitcoin leads to the shortage of chips. I think there is a certain connection between the two. Because bitcoin itself is a kind of virtual currency, which can be g. It is simply understood that you can crack the password of bitcoin through infinite attempts, crack a password, crack a key, This bitcoin is nominally yours, you have the right to trade. Now that the price of a bitcoin is so high, there are many people going to mine{ RRRRR}
now is not the time for retail investors to invest in bitcoin, and mining also has economic power. Now, the price of graphics card is so expensive that ordinary people can't afford to play with it, so don't think about it. Even if the price rises very fast, you can see the popularity is very high, and you think you can make money after you buy it. In fact, it's not like this, You can't predict that the price of bitcoin will double from three months ago to now, or triple from six months ago to now. Since it can rise so fast, who can guarantee that it won't fall back in the next six months? The risk is too high. Obviously, it's not a good choice for investment
the major financial institutions have also expressed the intention to continue to be optimistic about the appreciation potential of the special currency, and even think that it can be used as a financial tool for value reserve
for bitcoin and the digital money market, which frequently set new records, Tesla's entry is a major positive, and even provides a strong value support for bitcoin to a certain extent. With bitcoin graally becoming the mainstream choice of the market, its future value potential is also accelerating to release.