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Factors affecting bitcoin policy

Publish: 2021-05-06 20:50:33
1. As a financial technology enthusiast, kuanke online Xiaobian, I think, there are several major factors to promote
1, the short-term factors that determine the price: supply and demand and market sentiment
the relationship between supply and demand means that if the amount of money spent on buying bitcoin is more than that spent on selling bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will rise. If more people buy bitcoin, it will rise
market sentiment refers to the views of the market and the media on the price trend of bitcoin at that time. When many people strongly see bitcoin, the market sentiment is confident, and the price of bitcoin will rise rapidly. If the media makes pessimistic reports on the price of bitcoin, it will affect people's confidence and lead people to sell bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin will fall
2, the medium-term factors that determine the price: policy, news and mining cost
on the policy side, it is the policy attitude of governments towards bitcoin. For example, the recent crackdown and regulation of bitcoin by the South Korean government has led to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the near future. If more and more countries support and encourage the development of bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will be higher and higher. On the contrary, if many countries begin to suppress bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall
on the news side, there are some important things in the bitcoin instry. For example, around December, the two major stock exchanges in the United States launched bitcoin futures, which are good for bitcoin and directly push the price of bitcoin up to about $20000
mining cost is the cost of bitcoin miners using machines to dig out bitcoin. At present, the cost of digging out a bitcoin is about 12000 US dollars, so it is difficult for the price of bitcoin to fall below 12000 US dollars. Mining cost is the bottom line of bitcoin price. With the continuous increase of mining costs, the reason is that more competitors enter the mining field, especially many large institutions, companies and countries
3 determines the long-term price factors: the US dollar trend, the global bubble, the official digital currency, and the block chain technology.
the trend of the US dollar. According to the personal analysis data, the US dollar will weaken in the next few years, which means that the global monetary system with us dollar as the world currency in the past will be rebuilt. The rise and future of bitcoin is to assume the identity and mission of the world currency
global bubble. Since the United States abolished the gold standard Bretton Woods system in 70s, many countries in the United States have been printing banknote printing machines. The bubble of currency has caused the global economic bubble and asset bubble. The global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is the crisis triggered by the currency bubble. At present, the global economic bubble and asset bubble have reached the critical point of collapse. The birth of bitcoin was e to the reason of the currency bubble, which made people no longer believe in the currency of national credit, and began to believe and recognize bitcoin.
official digital currency, countries around the world have begun to prepare to issue official digital currency, that is, digital currency issued by countries. Venezuela has issued a national level digital currency - Petroleum currency. Israel is preparing to issue it, Russia is also preparing to issue it, and the Japanese government is issuing it. 2018 will become the first year of the global official digital currency. The accelerated launch of official digital currency and its increasing popularity show that the value of bitcoin as internet currency is unlimited.
2. There are many factors that can affect the price of digital currency, which can be summarized as follows:

1. The factor of investment supply and demand is actually not independent, and investors' demand for digital currency is also affected by various news factors. However, from the price surge of last year, in the absence of obvious policy and other news, The admission of investors and investment institutions will also promote the price growth

2. Policy factors are also important factors affecting the price of digital red packets. In the past, the implementation and formulation of policies in South Korea, Japan, the United States and China have affected the price trend of bitcoin

3. The real financial factors and the instability of the real financial world make the demand for digital assets rise from time to time. For example, the Chinese government's policy adjustment, the brexit of the UK, the setback of the global stock market at the beginning of 2018 and other events all give play to the hedging characteristics of digital currency

4. Technical factors. Although the security of digital currency has been highly respected in its development, several technical crises still occurred in its development history. For example, bitfinex, the largest bitcoin dollar exchange, was attacked by hackers and stole 120000 bitcoin, and bitcoin fell by 25% in the following six trading days

5. Good news and bad news will affect the fluctuation of currency value

6. The market trend will be affected by the actions of the leading enterprises in this field, platforms, digital currencies with large market share, leaders with great influence in the market, etc

besides, choosing a good project can avoid risks to a certain extent. For example, HNB, the next generation of decentralized blockchain economy, is a reliable project. It relies on the real economy, and at the same time uses value exchange to continuously create endogenous value. It uses blockchain to build an economy, so that everyone can participate in it and get returns through labor, instead of relying on currency speculation.
3. Bitcoin is valuable because it is useful as a form of currency. Bitcoin has the mathematical characteristics of money (persistence, portability, interchangeability, scarcity, separability and identifiability) rather than relying on physical characteristics (such as gold and silver) or the trust of central authorities (such as fiat money). In short, bitcoin is backed by mathematics. With these characteristics, a form of money to have value requires trust and use. In contrast, this can be reflected in its growing base of users, businesses and start-ups. Like all currencies, the value of bitcoin comes directly from people who are willing to accept it as a means of payment, which is the only source In China, it is defined as a special Internet commodity by the central bank
the price of bitcoin is determined by supply and demand. When the demand for bitcoin increases, the price of bitcoin rises; As demand decreases, prices fall. At present, only a few bitcoins are in circulation, and new bitcoins are issued at a predictable rate of graal decline, which means that demand must follow this inflation level in order to maintain price stability. Compared with the market scale it may become, bitcoin is still a relatively small market at present. It does not need a lot of money to make the market price fluctuate up and down. Therefore, the price of bitcoin is still very unstable.
4. It's divided into price and value
1: value is the so-called currency born from the early decentralized blockchain Technology (in fact, the capital owns the centralized computing power, and the capital owns the centralized currency quantity, which may not be ideal here). At that time, people had certain expectations and beliefs. The decentralized low trust cost world chase was a good future imagination, which made most people recognize its value (of course, it also caused negative use value, which could not be controlled and regulated by the government, and provided a lot of extra convenience)
of course, some attributes of digital currency can be used for reference, Now countries are also in the trend of legal digital currency. Due to certain technical reasons, BTC may eventually disappear, or it is difficult to achieve the vision of believers. If there is no better change of technology, the limitation of technology will be phased out with the current development of science and technology
2: of course, the price is basically determined by market transactions. BTC is used by a lot of capital, and more value may be used as financial value Another common perception of price is that the quantity is limited and the output is getting slower and slower. With the increase of the use area, the scarcity increases the price, and the story of halving the price is also a good help for capitalists)
because it is a minority, there is no regulation, so the power of capital has a great impact on the price. The good effect of getting rich can attract more and more people to come into the market. The exchanges of various capital institutions have solved the problems of business instry, gained some additional operating income, and created instries (such as basic financial derivatives and more)
including this year's events, with the epidemic situation and the situation in the United States, new financial derivatives are manufactured by joint institutions. In the secondary market, a new circular wealth story is born. This mode is still relatively solid, with stable prices and rising prices. Of course, the final digester is the ordinary people
at the same time, the characteristics of BTC also lead to a part of human allocation of hedging assets
and so on, the price of BTC is proced under the game
personal final conclusion (for reference only): bitcoin is more of a kind of financial value, its use value is still limited at present, and it is also very difficult to promote in the future. If the technology does not evolve, it will still be small. Of course, the game of the world government is also a certain resistance
the current price is based on the financial game of institutions, and it is stable to a certain extent. The premise is that if there is no new large number of people participating in the game, the current rising trend will slow down, and the gray scale and institutions are also expanding the playing methods of other digital currencies (after all, the number of BTCs targeted by GBTC has accounted for more of the total BTCs - physical contribution plus less cash contribution), But there may still be a rise, but when it will be the top depends on the results of various games (I think there are several points: 1. How long can the game between the trading frequency and holding amount of BTC or other currencies in the primary market last, and when people's purchase and consumption will reach a limit. It can't be bought and sold all the time, there is a limit when what the 2. gradation and what the BTC of the GBTC corresponds to is the two level market digestion of the market, when it will be indigestion is also a game... Etc.)
BTC has bubble, and the financial game of capital is full of bubbles. Of course, this is the opportunity to get rich easily.
but the risk is very high, which is not suitable for the public. It can only be said that it depends on fortune and opportunity
BTC has big moves with every financial trend game
investment should be cautious.
5.
  1. Dazhuang

  2. news from governments

  3. progress and development of bitcoin

6. The people's Bank of China banned financial institutions from trading in bitcoin, saying that bitcoin is not a "real" currency. As far as the investment risk of bitcoin is concerned, the government's view may be reasonable
the media's hype about bitcoin has made more than one newspaper sneer: "at present, journalists recognize bitcoin more than investors as a reliable way to store wealth." Government departments around the world are also paying attention to bitcoin. Although the Chinese and American governments have not banned it, they do not encourage people to participate in it. Here we focus on two questions: why is bitcoin so important? Why doesn't the government like bitcoin

bitcoin is a virtual payment system, which is not controlled or governed by any central government or private institutions. Unlike Alipay or Paypal, the system has its own monetary unit (bitcoin) instead of Renminbi, US dollars or other legal tender. Strictly speaking, bitcoin has no physical form. Instead, it trades over the Internet, and users store their bitcoin in their wallets. The bank account books record the depositors' deposits and withdrawals. The public can not see these records, but it is legal for the government to ask to review these records. The account book of bitcoin is called "block chain". In theory, it is a public document (anyone can download a ), but the participants of bitcoin system can easily hide their identity, because bitcoin is sent to the address randomly generated by electronic money package, which is composed of letters and numbers. In other words, I can provide a new address for each transaction. So even if people can figure out how much bitcoin they can get, they won't know if I have bitcoin

Where can I get bitcoin? One way is through "mining.". This method is by no means easy, and the computing power required for "mining" is now more than most people can afford (according to the design of bitcoin system, it will be increasingly difficult to find bitcoin). I know it's too simple to say that. The fact is that bitcoin's revenue and expenditure books are jointly maintained by "miners" all over the world. Most of the "mining" groups (more than 60000 users) that "miners" participate in spend a lot of time and power, and some of them can get bitcoin. For the majority of non professionals, it is much easier to buy bitcoin online on the bitcoin "exchange" with regular currency. Until recently, Japan's Mt. GOx was the world's largest bitcoin "exchange.". In China, bitcoin "exchange" BTC China has the longest history
I'm not surprised that China has quickly become a major bitcoin market because bitcoin has performed so well as a private trading channel. It is estimated that in 2013, the trading volume of bitcoin in China (including Hong Kong) accounted for more than half of the global trading volume, and more than 100000 bitcoins were traded in "bitcoin China" every day. People's interest in bitcoin has increased greatly, especially in China, which has led to a significant increase in the value of bitcoin, from about $0.08 in June 2010 to $1124.76 in November 2013. This led to reports that a Norwegian man bought 5000 bitcoins for $26.60 in 2009 and sold them for $886000 in 2013
unfortunately, those who bought at the peak have found that their bitcoin has almost halved in value - the current price of bitcoin is less than $600. What's wrong
for some investors, it is a problem that bitcoin has no physical form. For example, the Norwegian man mentioned above forgot his e-wallet password and had to take great pains to delete and rebuild it. Mt. GOx is much larger. It stopped trading on February 25, 2014, and then filed for bankruptcy protection in Japan and the United States because it lost about 550000 bitcoins, which were worth $473 million at that time, accounting for 7% of all bitcoins in circulation. Attorneys for Mt. GOx said in court that the reason for the loss of the bitcoin may be that "there is an algorithm defect in the bitcoin software, and someone has used this defect to invade the bitcoin network.". Investors usually stay away from such risks that they cannot understand
however, the bigger problem with bitcoin is that the Chinese and US governments are not friendly to bitcoin. In December 2013, the people's Bank of China banned financial institutions from engaging in bitcoin trading, saying that bitcoin is not a "real" currency. The bank made it clear that investors were free to participate in bitcoin trading, but at their own risk. Analysts pointed out that the Chinese government is worried that bitcoin trading by financial institutions will threaten the government's control over the financial instry, especially in terms of money supply and cross-border money flows. Before too many parts of the economy become "invisible" and untraceable, the Chinese government must act< Almost at the same time, U.S. Department of Homeland Security agents detained more than $5.1 million of bitcoin in Mt. GOx's account. They said the money came from a criminal network called silk road. In January 2014, a director of MT GOx was charged with money laundering. However, the U.S. government did not declare bitcoin illegal. Instead, after explaining the tax law, it used an unconventional means to punish users of bitcoin. In March 2014, for example, the Internal Revenue Service announced that bitcoin was an asset, not a currency. This has a significant impact. For example, if an American taxpayer buys $500 of bitcoin and then uses them to buy $1000 of goods e to the rising market price of bitcoin, he has to pay tax for his income. If the taxpayer purchases foreign currency, he does not need to pay tax when the foreign currency appreciates against the US dollar. In addition, bitcoin miners must declare the value of bitcoins by the date they were discovered, not by the time they were spent. In other words, bitcoin related taxes need to be paid immediately, even if the "miner" intends to keep these bitcoins for a few years. Recently, the U.S. government announced that it would transfer the bitcoin detained from "Silk Road", but asked the buyer to show his identity, which would inevitably weaken people's desire to buy and rece the transfer price of these bitcoins

since December 2013, China's official attitude towards bitcoin has not changed. However, the Chinese government does not allow domestic banks to do business with bitcoin "exchanges", especially in transferring RMB deposits from personal accounts to "bitcoin China". On April 28, 2014, bitcoin China said on its microblog that its user account had voluntarily stopped accepting RMB deposits. Since then, China has not encouraged bitcoin "exchanges" to allow users to withdraw Renminbi from their accounts. The future of bitcoin in China is not good, only Hong Kong may be an exception; At the same time, there are bitcoin ATMs in Hong Kong
but as far as the investment risk of bitcoin is concerned, the government's view may be reasonable. Recently, it has been reported that a "mining" group has controlled more than half of the bitcoin computing power, which may enable the group to veto bitcoin transactions verified by other "miners", or reuse the same batch of bitcoin without fear of being questioned. For most people, these problems can be too complex to solve. However, in mid June, Peter Chen, the main developer and advocate of bitcoin, made a breakthrough; Peter Todd, who sold half of his bitcoin, said: "I've learned that the factors that make bitcoin motivating are flawed, for a number of reasons. To say the least, even if only a few of the main reasons are taken into account, it will make people worried when a mining group controls 50% of its computing power. "
7. Price evaluation should be carried out. If the value exceeds 3000 yuan, it is suspected of fraud and sentenced to fixed-term imprisonment of not more than three years
if it is less than 3000 yuan, it does not constitute a crime and cannot be sentenced.
8.

In fact, there is one more detail that we need to pay attention to, that is, the price of bitcoin has been directly reced from US $60000 to US $52000, and countries have directly indicated that they will strengthen supervision. Before that, you should know that the price of bitcoin soared from more than 10000 US dollars to 60000 US dollars. It's boring. Why didn't the regulators of various countries directly intervene in such a long period of time? So today we will discuss the factors that affect the fluctuation of bitcoin{ Third, the confidence of consumers or investors

in the past few months, bitcoin's long-term success is that the manual has brought her a high degree of popularity, and at the same time, its price has gone up by leaps and bounds. But everyone is tired. After seeing some information about bitcoin for a long time, we are not very interested. The visual impact of tens of thousands of dollars has lost any freshness. In this case, everyone's investment enthusiasm for bitcoin will naturally decline, which will lead to its price decline

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