How to develop bitcoin in the future
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
In terms of technological innovation, people who know blockchain are very supportive; About the future trend of bitcoin, as the earliest blockchain proct, it has been basically in the market. As for how big a pie there will be in the future, you can see my share
[John McPhee, the head of IBM and the board of directors of PayPal all predict that bitcoin will reach $1 million]
in recent days, the market has slowed down temporarily. However, this has not deterred investors. As previously reported, although some bearish pressure is forming, bulls have responded well and kept prices stable
since bitcoin failed to break through $5450, bitcoin bulls have kept the price above $5000. Recently, after a stable weekend, there was almost no report on the price trend, and the market rose appropriately. Now all attention is turning to $5200 as the next key target, and finally retesting the resistance level of $5450
as of April 15, the marginal revenue of bitcoin was less than 2%, and the transaction price was $5160. Earlier in the day, it had risen to a high of $5193, but failed to reach the target of $5200
Then bitcoin fell back to US $5157. The high degree of stability and flexibility that bulls maintain and push prices up shows how strong the current bull market is. As long as bitcoin can remain above $5000 and avoid a sharp correction, the bullish trend will continue to get more support and push prices higherthe price of bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million
a few weeks after PayPal first invested in blockchain technology, its latest board of directors made a bold price forecast for bitcoin. Wences Casares, a member of PayPal's board, said bitcoin could reach $1 million in the next 10 years. IBM blockchain & amp; Jesse Lund and John McAfee, directors of digital currency, have also made such predictions, which many believe are overconfident
in my (subjective) opinion, the chance of success is at least 50%. If bitcoin really succeeds, a bitcoin could be worth more than $1 million in seven to 10 years
the growth of bitcoin has driven Shanzhai coin
with the rise of bitcoin, most Shanzhai coins are also rising. Although the income is relatively low, most Shanzhai coins have about 1% to 4% income, but this growth is likely to continue
before the deadline, lightcoin's LTC was one of the best performing currencies. In the past few weeks, the performance of this coin has been extraordinary, which seems to determine the price trend of Shanzhai coin again
XRP and eth are also on the rise, but the marginal returns are 0.30% and 1.26% respectively. XRP's short-term goal is to return above $0.33, and its long-term goal is above $0.4. On the other hand, ETH hopes to climb back to more than $170, becoming its next target, and its preferred position is more than $190
blockchain is the underlying system of distributed ledger in bitcoin. Bitcoin ledgers are built in a distributed and spontaneous way. Anyone can generate new currency blocks by performing specific cryptographic calculations, so as to obtain a digital "currency" that can be used for transactions. Bitcoin's impact on the world monetary system can be said to be subversive, which is also an important reason why it has attracted a lot of people's strong attention since it came out. After that, there were dozens of similar electronic currencies such as
"lightcoin". The abstract extraction of distributed digital currency technology from bitcoin forms a "blockchain" technology, which can be used in more fields
bitcoin and other virtual digital currencies are only an application scenario of blockchain technology. Theoretically speaking, based on the characteristics of blockchain technology, human beings can create a very rich form of services and procts. There are a large number of scenarios in finance, government, enterprises, cross instry and other fields, which are suitable for blockchain technology and have broad prospects. At present, many countries around the world have started the research of blockchain technology, and a series of instry organizations and alliances have been established. However, as blockchain technology is a brand-new technology, which subverts the traditional centralized mode, major institutions are still in the research stage, with only a small number of actual projects landing, and the great development of the instry has just begun
now, blockchain economy is on the eve of outbreak. The exploration of financial instry is ahead of others, while the application of other instries is developing rapidly. The obvious advantage of blockchain instry application is to optimize business process, rece operation cost and improve collaborative efficiency. This advantage has been graally reflected in financial services, Internet of things, public services, social welfare and supply chain management
as the backbone of emerging technologies, blockchain is not only used in the field of virtual currency, but also in other fields such as finance, medical care, intellectual property certification, etc. a large number of excellent enterprises have emerged in China to explore or enter the blockchain instry. According to the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry released by foresight Instry Research Institute, as of the end of 2016, there were 105 blockchain related enterprises in China, 80% of which were concentrated in eastern coastal cities, including Shanghai, Hangzhou and Taipei
trustworthiness is the core requirement of blockchain, and the importance of standards and specifications is becoming increasingly prominent
in the future value delivery network based on blockchain, we will completely use algorithms and software to build the trust foundation. However, we believe that this is far from enough, and we need the standard to increase the credibility of the blockchain. In the future, the standard of blockchain will standardize the technology and governance of blockchain from the perspective of users, business oriented, and from the dimensions of smart contract, consensus mechanism, private key security, and authority management, so as to enhance the credibility of blockchain and add weight to the trust of blockchain.
however, coin pack believes that there are risks as well as benefits; Because income and risk exist at the same time
this is similar to the stock market, there must be high risk while obtaining high returns
but bitcoin is proced by bitcoin software system based on P2P network; If there is a new currency software system, and users generally accept it, it may have a certain impact compared with the special currency.
When the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, someone published a paper under the pseudonym of "Nakamoto Tsung", describing the mode of bitcoin
many bitcoin players are attracted by the fact that bitcoin can not be issued at will. Contrary to the attitude of bitcoin players, economists have a polarized attitude towards the fixed amount of 21 million bitcoin
Economists of Keynesian school believe that the government should actively regulate the total amount of money, and use the tightness of monetary policy to timely fuel or brake the economy. As a result, they believe that bitcoin's fixed aggregate currency sacrifices its adjustability, and worse still, it will inevitably lead to deflation, thereby harming the overall economy. Austrian economists hold the opposite view. They think that the less the government intervenes in money, the better. The deflation caused by the fixed amount of money is not a big deal, even a sign of social progressbitcoin network generates new bitcoin through "mining". In essence, the so-called "mining" is to use computers to solve a complex mathematical problem to ensure the consistency of bitcoin network distributed accounting system. Bitcoin network will automatically adjust the difficulty of mathematical problems, so that the whole network will get a qualified answer about every 10 minutes. Then bitcoin network will generate a certain amount of bitcoin as a reward to reward the person who gets the answer
when bitcoin was born in 2009, each reward was 50 bitcoins. Ten minutes after its birth, the first 50 bitcoins were generated, and the total amount of money at this time is 50. Then bitcoin grew at a rate of about 50 every 10 minutes. When the total amount reaches 10.5 million (50% of 21 million), the bounty will be halved to 25. When the total amount reached 15.75 million (5.25 million new output, or 50% of 1050), the bounty was further halved to 12.5
first of all, according to its design principle, the total amount of bitcoin will continue to grow until it reaches 21 million more than 100 years later. But the total amount of bitcoin will grow very slowly in the later period. In fact, 87.5% of bitcoin will be "g up" in the first 12 years. Therefore, in terms of the total amount of money, bitcoin will not reach a fixed amount, and its total amount of money will continue to expand, although the speed is getting slower and slower. So it looks like bitcoin is the inflation currency
However, the judgment of deflation or inflation is not based on whether the total amount of money is decreasing or increasing, but on whether the overall price level is falling or rising. The rise of overall price is inflation, and vice versa. In the long run, the issuing mechanism of bitcoin determines that the growth rate of its total amount of money will be far lower than that of social wealth Economists of Keynesian school believe that the continuous decline of prices will make people tend to postpone consumption, because the same dollar can buy more things tomorrow. The rection of consumption will further lead to shrinking demand, unsalable goods, lower prices and a vicious circle of "deflation spiral". Similarly, the deflationary currency itself can appreciate even if it is not deposited in the bank (the purchasing power becomes stronger and stronger), people's willingness to invest will increase, and social proction will fall into a downturn[ 5] Therefore, bitcoin is a currency with deflationary tendency. In bitcoin economies, commodity prices priced with bitcoin will continue to fallbitcoin is a kind of network virtual currency with limited quantity, but it can be used to cash out: it can be converted into the currency of most countries. You can use bitcoin to buy some virtual items, such as clothes, hats, equipment, etc. in online games. As long as someone accepts it, you can also use bitcoin to buy real-life items
We know that this is an era of high economic development. More and more people begin to pay attention to the self-development of the economy. At the same time, they are willing to put their spare funds into other instries to make money. This is a way to make future investment or risk aversion, After all, people are full of many factors for the instability of the market, such as a wave of new epidemic action in 2020. So what's the next step for bitcoin to reach a new high in 2020{ RRRRR}
3. For companies that issue bitcoin, it will have a very good development< p> Finally, for companies that issue bitcoin, this is a very good development, because the more people hold bitcoin, the higher the market value and price of the company
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