The influence of bitcoin on the future financial market
Publish: 2021-05-10 11:16:53
1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
2. With the existence of Internet and blockchain, bitcoin will exist. It has existed for a long time, and people graally recognize and widely apply it to payment. Then, it can play a positive balancing role in world finance.
3. As a financial technology enthusiast, kuanke online Xiaobian, I think, there are several major factors to promote
1, the short-term factors that determine the price: supply and demand and market sentiment
the relationship between supply and demand means that if the amount of money spent on buying bitcoin is more than that spent on selling bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will rise. If more people buy bitcoin, it will rise
market sentiment refers to the views of the market and the media on the price trend of bitcoin at that time. When many people strongly see bitcoin, the market sentiment is confident, and the price of bitcoin will rise rapidly. If the media makes pessimistic reports on the price of bitcoin, it will affect people's confidence and lead people to sell bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin will fall
2, the medium-term factors that determine the price: policy, news and mining cost
on the policy side, it is the policy attitude of governments towards bitcoin. For example, the recent crackdown and regulation of bitcoin by the South Korean government has led to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the near future. If more and more countries support and encourage the development of bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will be higher and higher. On the contrary, if many countries begin to suppress bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall
on the news side, there are some important things in the bitcoin instry. For example, around December, the two major stock exchanges in the United States launched bitcoin futures, which are good for bitcoin and directly push the price of bitcoin up to about $20000
mining cost is the cost of bitcoin miners using machines to dig out bitcoin. At present, the cost of digging out a bitcoin is about 12000 US dollars, so it is difficult for the price of bitcoin to fall below 12000 US dollars. Mining cost is the bottom line of bitcoin price. With the continuous increase of mining costs, the reason is that more competitors enter the mining field, especially many large institutions, companies and countries
3 determines the long-term price factors: the US dollar trend, the global bubble, the official digital currency, and the block chain technology.
the trend of the US dollar. According to the personal analysis data, the US dollar will weaken in the next few years, which means that the global monetary system with us dollar as the world currency in the past will be rebuilt. The rise and future of bitcoin is to assume the identity and mission of the world currency
global bubble. Since the United States abolished the gold standard Bretton Woods system in 70s, many countries in the United States have been printing banknote printing machines. The bubble of currency has caused the global economic bubble and asset bubble. The global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is the crisis triggered by the currency bubble. At present, the global economic bubble and asset bubble have reached the critical point of collapse. The birth of bitcoin was e to the reason of the currency bubble, which made people no longer believe in the currency of national credit, and began to believe and recognize bitcoin.
official digital currency, countries around the world have begun to prepare to issue official digital currency, that is, digital currency issued by countries. Venezuela has issued a national level digital currency - Petroleum currency. Israel is preparing to issue it, Russia is also preparing to issue it, and the Japanese government is issuing it. 2018 will become the first year of the global official digital currency. The accelerated launch of official digital currency and its increasing popularity show that the value of bitcoin as internet currency is unlimited.
1, the short-term factors that determine the price: supply and demand and market sentiment
the relationship between supply and demand means that if the amount of money spent on buying bitcoin is more than that spent on selling bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will rise. If more people buy bitcoin, it will rise
market sentiment refers to the views of the market and the media on the price trend of bitcoin at that time. When many people strongly see bitcoin, the market sentiment is confident, and the price of bitcoin will rise rapidly. If the media makes pessimistic reports on the price of bitcoin, it will affect people's confidence and lead people to sell bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin will fall
2, the medium-term factors that determine the price: policy, news and mining cost
on the policy side, it is the policy attitude of governments towards bitcoin. For example, the recent crackdown and regulation of bitcoin by the South Korean government has led to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the near future. If more and more countries support and encourage the development of bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will be higher and higher. On the contrary, if many countries begin to suppress bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall
on the news side, there are some important things in the bitcoin instry. For example, around December, the two major stock exchanges in the United States launched bitcoin futures, which are good for bitcoin and directly push the price of bitcoin up to about $20000
mining cost is the cost of bitcoin miners using machines to dig out bitcoin. At present, the cost of digging out a bitcoin is about 12000 US dollars, so it is difficult for the price of bitcoin to fall below 12000 US dollars. Mining cost is the bottom line of bitcoin price. With the continuous increase of mining costs, the reason is that more competitors enter the mining field, especially many large institutions, companies and countries
3 determines the long-term price factors: the US dollar trend, the global bubble, the official digital currency, and the block chain technology.
the trend of the US dollar. According to the personal analysis data, the US dollar will weaken in the next few years, which means that the global monetary system with us dollar as the world currency in the past will be rebuilt. The rise and future of bitcoin is to assume the identity and mission of the world currency
global bubble. Since the United States abolished the gold standard Bretton Woods system in 70s, many countries in the United States have been printing banknote printing machines. The bubble of currency has caused the global economic bubble and asset bubble. The global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is the crisis triggered by the currency bubble. At present, the global economic bubble and asset bubble have reached the critical point of collapse. The birth of bitcoin was e to the reason of the currency bubble, which made people no longer believe in the currency of national credit, and began to believe and recognize bitcoin.
official digital currency, countries around the world have begun to prepare to issue official digital currency, that is, digital currency issued by countries. Venezuela has issued a national level digital currency - Petroleum currency. Israel is preparing to issue it, Russia is also preparing to issue it, and the Japanese government is issuing it. 2018 will become the first year of the global official digital currency. The accelerated launch of official digital currency and its increasing popularity show that the value of bitcoin as internet currency is unlimited.
4. Bitcoin is the so-called "cryptocurrency", which is a digital asset in the form of data. Your money in the bank may also be a bunch of numbers, but these numbers are equivalent to real money. Bitcoin is not. In the world of bitcoin, there is neither a central bank to manage nor an inherent legal framework. Because of this, the value of bitcoin is entirely determined by the market, which is currently very hot
bitcoin is stored in a digital wallet. You can store it on your local hard disk or mobile phone, or in a variety of online bitcoin exchanges. Keeping bitcoin locally is like hiding money under a mattress. If something goes wrong with your digital wallet, your money will be gone
to remit or collect money, you need to point your bitcoin client or network exchange to a bitcoin address, which is the address of every wallet. After a few minutes, bitcoin will generally leave your wallet and enter the other person's wallet. There are few sites that accept bitcoin, but there are a few. It's more difficult to use bitcoin in real life, but it can be achieved through some systems
what is the impact of bitcoin on the economy
despite all kinds of problems, the soaring price of bitcoin is partly e to more and more people using it. Bitcoin fans believe in its future. Ordinary people are also graally interested in cryptocurrency, but because it is too complex, it is difficult to popularize in the mass market. If it is really popular, the fluctuation of bitcoin's value will lead to greater turbulence in the global economy
if you bought $1000 bitcoin in 2010, it's worth about $35 million now. But if you buy $1000 bitcoin in early 2014, you'll only have a quarter of your purchasing power a year later. How would you feel if you paid with bitcoin and found that you could only buy half of what you had a few days ago
this kind of inflation is unstable, but if it is used in parallel with the government supported currency, bitcoin does have some advantages. Few people will exchange all their assets for bitcoin.
bitcoin is stored in a digital wallet. You can store it on your local hard disk or mobile phone, or in a variety of online bitcoin exchanges. Keeping bitcoin locally is like hiding money under a mattress. If something goes wrong with your digital wallet, your money will be gone
to remit or collect money, you need to point your bitcoin client or network exchange to a bitcoin address, which is the address of every wallet. After a few minutes, bitcoin will generally leave your wallet and enter the other person's wallet. There are few sites that accept bitcoin, but there are a few. It's more difficult to use bitcoin in real life, but it can be achieved through some systems
what is the impact of bitcoin on the economy
despite all kinds of problems, the soaring price of bitcoin is partly e to more and more people using it. Bitcoin fans believe in its future. Ordinary people are also graally interested in cryptocurrency, but because it is too complex, it is difficult to popularize in the mass market. If it is really popular, the fluctuation of bitcoin's value will lead to greater turbulence in the global economy
if you bought $1000 bitcoin in 2010, it's worth about $35 million now. But if you buy $1000 bitcoin in early 2014, you'll only have a quarter of your purchasing power a year later. How would you feel if you paid with bitcoin and found that you could only buy half of what you had a few days ago
this kind of inflation is unstable, but if it is used in parallel with the government supported currency, bitcoin does have some advantages. Few people will exchange all their assets for bitcoin.
5. No impact, the CBRC clearly stipulates that financial institutions shall not participate in bitcoin transactions
6. The biggest obstacle is that we all hold bitcoin. Like RMB, we all have the ability to trade. I don't have you. That's impossible. But now with okex, the trading between bitcoin becomes simple. I believe more and more people will try to have it. It's just a matter of time.
7. Special currency has four main characteristics: no centralized issuers, limited amount, no geographical restrictions and anonymity. Although some people call bitcoin "currency", it is not a real currency because it is not issued by the monetary authority and has no monetary attributes such as legal compensation and compulsion. In terms of nature, bitcoin is a specific virtual commodity, which does not have the same legal status as currency and cannot and should not be used as currency in the market.
8.
Bus line: Metro Line 2 → Metro Line 5, the whole journey is about 23.1km.
1. Take Metro Line 2 from Guangzhou south station, pass 15 stations, and reach Guangzhou railway station
2. Walk about 130m, then transfer to Metro Line 5
3. Take Metro Line 5, pass 1 station, and reach Xiaobei station
4. Walk about 740m, and reach Guangzhou Youth Science and technology center
9.
The crazy rise of bitcoin price reflects the potential crisis in the global financial market, that is, it may be rotten in the hands and can not be realized. All kinds of virtual currencies you see now are very popular, but you should clearly know that virtual currency itself has no economic value and is not recognized by any government, If you say that he has no value and no one will buy him, he has no value at all{ RRRRR}
although it is simple to say, it is not so simple in actual operation, but the general principle is similar, because the virtual currency itself is affected by the investment tuyere, more and more investors pour into the instry, and oversupply will lead to its price rising rapidly. Before Tesla put forward a one currency car purchase plan, If it can be implemented, it means that it has the purchasing power in real life, and the risk is much lower. At the same time, there are a lot of virtual currencies. Because of the rapid rise in the price, also because of this, its price once rose rapidly, but whether it can survive or not
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