Bitcoin support line
"Gold and silver are not money naturally, but money is gold and silver naturally." this is a sentence Marx said about money
How to understand? In fact, it is very simple that money is the inevitable proct of the development of human life. In the earliest stage, gold and silver were only used as a kind of metal or a kind of ordinary commodity to exchange things. However, with the development of society, people find that gold and silver are easy to separate, easy to preserve, easy to carry and other advantages, so the suitability of gold and silver as currency is reflected, and naturally evolved into currencyWhat about bitcoin
There are many views on the reasons why bitcoin fell below $10000 this time, some people in the instry said: "maybe it's a good play prepared by the main force to commemorate the 94 event in advance." more people think that the withdrawal of OTC funds by mining of defi (decentralized Finance) may be one of the main reasons for the current round of decline. However, there are also views that the main reason for the decline of bitcoin is e to the market smashing by the makers
according to the website of coinmarketcap, in the early morning of September 3, bitcoin dropped more than 10% in the short term. At one time, bitcoin fell below the US $10000 level, and the lowest fell to US $9960, which was a new low since July 27, with a 24-hour decline of 9.98%. At present, bitcoin has rebounded to US $10302. At the same time, cryptocurrency declined collectively, and most of the top ten popular currencies in market value, except stable currency, fell by more than 10%
However, e to the special date of bitcoin's decline and the foreshadowing of the decline in the previous two days, some people in the instry said: "maybe it's a good play prepared by the main force to commemorate the 94 event in advance.". It is reported that the coin circle 94 incident originated from September 4, 2017, when seven ministries and commissions jointly issued the announcement on preventing the financing risk of token issuance, officially calling for the suspension of ICO (initial token issuance) financing, which was regarded as an important watershed in the history of China's digital currency speculationhowever, it is not the tradition of the coin circle to fall every festival. On the decline of bitcoin this time, more people think that the withdrawal of OTC funds by the mining of defi (decentralized Finance) may be one of the main reasons for this round of decline
however, there are also views that the main reason for the decline of bitcoin is e to the market smashing by the makers
KOL, an analyst known as the trend maniac of digital currency, pointed out that there have been a large number of smashing orders in the exchange recently. When the currency price is around us $11770-11800, the exchange's large investors mp goods at US $11750 in 500btc, and all the orders are instantly eaten by the brick moving robot, about 4000 coins are smashed
extended data
mining of DEI (decentralized Finance) and withdrawal of over-the-counter funds are the reasons for the current round of decline.
Wu Gang, founder of bitcoin wallet letter, publicly said on the social platform that the market decline is the "blood sucking" of the defi (decentralized Finance) project, and gave an example of sushi project, which has soared 100 times recently
Kang Lu, a senior researcher of fire coin Research Institute, said to the analysis of interface news that the recent hot spot of digital currency is not in the bitcoin market, but the prosperity of the overall digital currency market caused by the graal prosperity of the decentralized financial market in Ethereum ecology and wave field ecology
it can be seen from the fact that the trading volume of decentralized exchanges has reached 6% of that of mainstream exchanges. In addition, at the beginning of September, the 24-hour trading volume of uniswap, a decentralized exchange, reached US $441 million, surpassing the head centralized exchange coinbase Pro for the first time
Novice first of all to know how to calculate your cost, recharge, trading, cash, there are fees. At least you can understand the K-line. There are a lot of people on the K-line. You can look at it casually and understand it. You need to be risk aware. Bitcoin is a high-risk and high profit investment. It may double overnight, or BMW may become a bicycle overnight. At the beginning, we suggest a small amount of investment
but it's hard to get bitcoin for indivial mining, so it's basically large-scale mining, and you need to cooperate with the mine pool. So if you still want to make money by mining, at present, the most suitable mining method is cloud mining or mining machine hosting. After all, the era of single person mining is over
Since January, the real supervision has not come, only a few ambiguous scrapes have come, the exchange is still there, the project party has not gone, the media of the office is getting better and better, and the related instries are also sleeping day and night. But the bear market has come. It seems that it is unwilling to go. It went down in January, fell in February, and was sluggish in March. Many people cry out that it is a pity to abandon them. They are very surprised. Some people say that the 2014 bear market will repeat itself, while others say that the past is good and we should hold on. We might as well think from the following angles and get our own answers
"bitcoin is the vane of the digital money market. The rise and fall of bitcoin price determines the heat of the overall market and the ability to attract external funds. Therefore, we mainly discuss bitcoin and other mainstream digital currencies."
Like the development and prosperity of the stock market, the game of multi countries will become the theme of the future. Investors will also become more rational, and graally rece the weight of policy in the face of digital money marketWhere will ICO itself go and what will the currency of investment be
answer: as a means of financing, ICO is more efficient than IPO and more fair in the distribution of profits. Of course, its own limitations will also limit the development of this financial instrument. ICO and IPO will exist for a long time in the future, serving different instries. Whatever is suitable for token will promote the development of ICO, as well as in policy. IPO will not disappear, because it is more in line with the existing legal framework, in line with international standards and other first mover advantages will support him to continue to maintain the financial channel of related instries
stop loss after the end of February 2020, the bitcoin market will graally form a symmetrical triangle. This is a common finishing form in technical analysis. The upper limit is downward inclined line and the lower limit is upward inclined line if the price goes up and breaks through the resistance line, it is a bullish signal; On the contrary, if the price falls below the support line, it is a bearish signal. After the price of bitcoin broke through the support line at the end of February, it actually indicated that the bitcoin market entered a downward trend at present, bitcoin has entered the downward channel. If bitcoin investors still hold the expectation that "half market price will bring bitcoin price rise", they will face greater market risk in the future and should stop loss in time extended data: bitcoin generation: in addition to packaging the received transaction information into data blocks, each data block will be allowed to issue a certain number of new bitcoins to motivate the miners who successfully discover data blocks. The bitcoin system determines the number of bitcoins to be issued according to the predetermined rhythm of additional currency issuance. If there is a service charge for other payment transactions, the miner will also receive a service charge since the miner can decide whether to package a transaction data into a data block, the miner may give priority to the transaction with higher handling charge. The block generation rate is expected to be one every 10 minutes, but the number of new bitcoins issued in each block cannot exceed 50, and this number will be halved every four years, so the total number of bitcoins will not exceed 21 million with the decline of the number of new bitcoin issues, handling charges will become the main motivation for mining. And that number is halved every four years. Users who put their computer resources into bitcoin mining activities in the earlier period are much easier to get bitcoin than miners who joined later the main reason for this design is to ensure that in the early development stage of bitcoin, enough computing power can be attracted to process data blocks. In fact, if no one digs, the initial trading activities of bitcoin will not be handled, and the bitcoin economy will stop in December 2012, the number of bitcoins was halved for the first time, which should be around July 16, 2016. At present, more than 15 million bitcoins have been g up. Because the total amount of bitcoin is limited, and the loss in circulation, bitcoin is a deflationary currency, and the current global market price is about 4.5 billion US dollars as for the fixed total amount, bitcoin has a lot of room for appreciation. If everyone uses bitcoin, the consequences can be imagined simply speaking, the generation of bitcoin is that the designer uses the concept of human digging for gold, uses a specific algorithm, calculates through the computing power of the computer, and obtains bitcoin. This method is also called "mining" on the Internet in order to maintain the normal operation of the system permanently, "miner" will also receive a certain amount of handling fee when receiving the transaction confirmation information, and "miner" can also freely choose the transaction with high transaction fee to package. At present, the global computing power has reached 1000p
because the output of bitcoin is fixed, the demand for bitcoin is increasing
who is buying bitcoin? This round of increase is mainly caused by overseas institutions
why should institutions configure bitcoin
in fact, it may not necessarily be the special currency, but the essence is the diversification of assets (the most fundamental difference is that retail investors invest for value-added, while large capital investment only for non depreciation)
so will bitcoin continue to rise? Then it's time to ask if all the institutions have bought
in the previous article "how to catch up with the last bus of bitcoin, I have just introced that more than 20 institutions / listed companies such as PayPal, grayscale and MicroStrategy have entered the market
among them, we have already bought 530000 bitcoins through this "help sell channel"
grayscale is just a channel, and there will only be more and more channels like grayscale
behind these channels are a variety of institutions, all of which have the need to configure bitcoin. The current situation is that one institution has finished buying, and there are more institutions after it
the bitcoin market is very small and needs too many institutions. So if you ask me, is the agency finished? I think this is just the beginning.
As we approach the end of the year, when we plan to sprint for the goal of the end of the year, earn more bonus and prepare to release ourselves in the Spring Festival, don't forget that the fraudsters also have such a plan. At this time, the tide of shopping on double 12 and new year's day comes one after another, and people working outside are also busy booking tickets and air tickets for the Spring Festival, which provides opportunities for fraudsters. Here, liewang, the first online fraud information reporting platform linked by the police and the people in China, makes an inventory of the new trends of online fraud in 2017. Can you see through all these scams
trend 1: mobile payment has become the mainstream, beware of two-dimensional code trap
mobile payment has greatly facilitated people's life and made people travel easily. However, there are many criminals who use the way of scanning two-dimensional code to carry out fraud, which is impossible to prevent. For example, on bike sharing, a fake QR code is used to cover the regular QR code, and the avatar is set as the official icon of bike sharing to cheat users to pay or recharge; Next to the store's two-dimensional code, there are words full of temptation, such as "scan code to grab red packets", "scan code discount", etc., to lure users to scan the code, and then obtain user information or directly guide users to transfer money. There are even criminals who the illegal parking notice posted on the car by traffic police. The fake ticket is attached with a payment QR code to lure the car owner to scan the code to pay a "fine"
trend 2: fake businesses want to refund. Users should be careful of being" loaned online "
generally, people think that their bank card balance is small, even if they encounter swindlers, it doesn't matter. However, according to the report cases received by liewang platform, In the common refund fraud in 2017, fraudsters use mobile phones to receive SMS verification code to lure victims into Internet micro loan business, and finally transfer the loan to the swindler's account. This kind of fraud often involves a high amount of money and brings serious property losses to users
trend 3: mobile phones also contain extortion virus, and the payment method is more" people-friendly "
mobile phone extortion software has become a common tool for criminals to seek benefits e to its low proction cost and fast cash flow. At present, there are different forms of blackmail software in the mobile application market. Different from the blackmail software in the computer, bitcoin is needed to pay for it. The payment form in the mobile blackmail software is more "people-friendly"
a batch of blackmail software captured in 2017 attached wechat two-dimensional code information to the blackmail interface, and prompted the winner to directly scan the two-dimensional code for payment by wechat, which will automatically unlock after successful payment, and the user will automatically enter the transfer interface after scanning the code. However, through technical analysis, this kind of blackmail software does not have any code related to wechat transfer. The so-called "scan payment, automatically unlock" is actually a fraud, even if the user transfers, it will not automatically unlock
trend 4: fake customer service requests to provide payment code and swipe only by numbers
because code scanning payment is simple and convenient, in 2016, many fraudsters took a screenshot of the two-dimensional code to swipe. But in 2017, as payment companies added anti fraud tips or confidentiality settings in the process of payment QR code screenshots, swindlers immediately thought of countermeasures and swindled the numbers under the payment code, forming a new instrial chain
criminals often disguise themselves as merchants customer service, requiring users to provide figures such as Alipay, WeChat and other payment bar codes, and then, on the grounds of digital failure, require users to refresh the numbers and send them several times to achieve the purpose of stealing. p>
trend 5: download the specified software, but the account password is shared by cloud disk
users' privacy information can be stolen without using phishing websites and Trojan horse software. This year, swindlers have come up with new tricks: as long as the victims' trust is obtained, they can download cloud disk, synchronization software and other procts, log in to the account designated by the swindler to upload files and synchronize, and then they can easily get information. What's more, if the user synchronizes the SMS verification code at any time, the swindler can easily steal the funds in the bank card
fraudsters often disguise themselves as e-commerce, suppliers and other customer services, requiring users to download some cloud disk synchronization software, and then provide the specified account password for users to log in. At this time, if the user logs in and synchronizes the personal account, password and other information on the software according to the swindler's instructions, the funds on the account will be transferred quietly
trend 6: new phishing websites on mobile terminals are more covert and easy to be recruited
as security manufacturers increase their efforts to crack down on phishing websites, phishing website makers also strengthen their covert means, spread links by using proct sharing functions such as short URL, cloud disk service, browser and social tools, and finally jump through the URL, Guide users to phishing sites to launch online fraud
trend 7: indemnity should be paid in intimate way. Be careful with this kind of fraud SMS
as early as 2013, 360 company discovered a high-risk fraud binding the victim's online banking account. In recent years, with the use of mobile payment becoming more and more popular, In 2017, there was a similar kind of fraud, which used a payment platform to bind accounts and swipe victims' accounts
in May 2017, Mr. Di received a flight delay text message sent in the name of the airline, with flight information and customer service phone number attached in the text message, and said that Mr. Di could get 300 yuan of delay compensation. Fake customer service in the phone to guide Mr. Di refund operation, and provide the enterprise account, but also ask Mr. Di to open intimate payment function. However, after Mr. Di opened, he found that he had two dections, and realized that Mr. Di was cheated and immediately called the police
trend 8: investment in the circle of friends? Do not gambler psychology
in everyone's wechat group or circle of friends, there are often many activities or proct recommendations under the banner of discount. Not long ago, Mr. Wang saw a WeChat official account named "double half price win" in WeChat group chat. Mr. Wang then identified the official account as having an enterprise certification and believed that the platform had high credibility. p>
Mr. Wang invested a small amount in the early stage, and found that there was a certain income every day, so he subsequently invested in batches, but graally began to lose money“ He wants to invest more in order to earn back the capital. As a result, when contacting customer service again, he found that the other party had blackmailed him. Only then did he realize that he had been cheated and that the money he had invested had gone to nothing
trend 9: identity impersonation has a new pattern, be careful that "friends" are high imitations
in the past, online fraud of identity impersonation often occurred on QQ, wechat and other social platforms, but this year, swindlers shifted their focus to microblog. The swindler specially studies the social habits of the victims, such as the relationship between microblog staff and chat content, and then changes their avatars and nicknames to create high imitation numbers. Because most of the fake users are abroad, it is difficult for their microblog friends to distinguish the true from the false in time
trend 10: the combination of various means makes it impossible to prevent the" ghost "fraud.
in March 2017, 360 assisted the Shenzhen police in successfully cracking down the" midnight ghost "Telecom fraud Gang, which the police identified as an illegal trade instry chain relying on personal information, It is a high-tech, high intelligence, cross platform, remote-control new type of telecom network fraud crime that combines mobile cloud service, operator's deputy number service and Internet financial service. And this kind of stealing brush mainly uses different services of various platform service providers. A single service does not have the security risk of stealing brush, but it is combined to form stealing brush. In order to make it difficult for the victims to detect, the criminals choose to commit crimes late at night. The whole process does not need to have any contact with the victims, and the victims do not need to reply to any SMS, so prevention is very difficult
from the above ten cases, the current situation of network fraud is still not optimistic. The anti fraud experts of liewang platform hereby remind the netizens that the new year is approaching, the fraudsters are highly active, and all kinds of fraud means emerge in endlessly. At this time, we need to improve the anti fraud awareness, so that the fraudsters have no chance to take advantage of it
net hunting platform is jointly launched by Beijing Public Security Bureau and 360. It is an innovative platform to crack down on Internet fraud through Internet platform and Internet technology. Up to now, liewang platform has established contact with public security organs in more than 300 regions of the country, helped to detect more than 100 major Internet fraud cases, involving 170 million yuan, and knocked down more than 10 large-scale fraud gangs with strict organization and clear division of labor. Internet users can report malicious programs, malicious web addresses, fraulent phone calls, etc. to 360 Internet security center through the platform. Every piece of information reported by Internet users will be included in the big data of liewang platform, providing effective clues for the police to solve cases
generally speaking, the value of money depends on its activity: the central bank prints a lot of money and puts it into the economy with high-speed monetary activity. Therefore, we find that if the value of money decreases, we will be more inclined to sell in the future, resulting in a further decline in the quoted price. This cycle will lead to a runaway effect
for bitcoin, there is no high speed activity of bitcoin. Only the speculative bubble burst, and the quotations get closer to the mall balance point. This leads to a humorous question: where is the balance? First of all, let's make some assumptions. If in the future, no one in the world will hoard bitcoin at all: no one believes that bitcoin will rise, but will only fall in the future. Therefore, in the near future, we will only purchase procts by purchasing just enough bitcoin. In this way, the quotation of bitcoin depends entirely on the demand (the amount of bitcoin that people spend on purchasing procts and services) and the supply (the amount of bitcoin that exists). We are going to test to set up a lower bound: there will be some conjecture data in it, so we are going to choose the more extreme (disappointed) data. Data results are relatively small, and are affected by many factors, but data results can let us roughly know the magnitude of the answer to the question. In addition, we have the same assumption that everyone has lost interest in all counterfeit coins: we only pay attention to the bitcoin quotation supported by the bitcoin demand brought by real procts and services, that is to say, we do not use the statistical data of business channels to count the demand
let's get started. It is an excellent representative of the total demand of bitcoin for procts and services. It is the total activity of coinbase and bitpay, the two largest bitcoin payment processors in the bitcoin instry. Of course, bitcoin for procts and services also occurs in other places (this does not include the bitcoin compensation paid by some companies). The total bitcoin traffic of these two payment processors can exceed 50% of the bitcoin demand in all bitcoin businesses: the service of all large-scale commercial bitcoin transactions is coinbase or bitpay
surprisingly, neither coinbase nor bitpay clearly revealed their detailed business data. Fortunately, we can make a reasonable and accurate guess about the implied meaning of some articles announced by them. For example, we know that bitpay's business volume in 2013 was $100 million, and we also know that its business volume in 2012 was $3 million. Bitpay was founded in 2011, so we can reasonably guess that the total business volume of bitpay at the end of 2013 will be at least $94 million. Coinbase didn't disclose similar data, but both sides made clear the detailed number of cooperative businesses: bitpay is "more than 30000 businesses", coinbase is "31000 businesses". If we assume that the average bitcoin business volume of each of the two payment processors is similar, then the revenue of coinbase and bitpay are very similar. Let's calculate according to this. They are all US $100 million per year, or the remaining 50% of bitcoin needs that do not flow through coinbase and bitpay will bring us $300 million per year. In fact, since it is almost certain that there will be a continuous increase in 2014, these figures are likely to be higher. Since it is difficult to evaluate the detailed increase, let's leave it alone and simply assume that it will be $300 million in 2014
according to the current quotation of bitcoin (US $474), the total value of bitcoin mall is about US $6 billion, so US $300 million only accounts for 5%. That is to say, 95% of the total demand for bitcoin is speculative. Therefore, our estimation of the lower bound of bitcoin price is 23 US dollars. At this moment, the natural market's strength will prevent the price from further falling
let's analyze the above achievements reasonably. Our approximate data comes from bitpay and coinbase's bitcoin traffic (2013), and the bitcoin traffic of the three major business channels is accounted for by the partners working in coindesk. The channel traffic of bitcoin business is mainly speculative business (and counterfeit money business), which can hardly represent the business needs of bitcoin brought by any procts and services. At the same time, the three major business channels in the world (Mt. GOx, bitstamp, btc-e) account for 93% of the total amount of bitcoin shopping malls, and 7% are not included. We think that it is appropriate for the real commercial bitcoin demand to account for 5%
but will bitcoin really fall to $23? Very likely not. Let's assume that bitpay and coinbase did not increase in 2014, which is 100% wrong. Overstock, a US online retailer, Dell, a global PC retailer, and Xindan, a US e-commerce channel, announced in 2014 that they had accepted bitcoin payment, so the real amount could be several times higher. In addition, no one can store bitcoin and counterfeit coins at all. Therefore, this achievement is likely to be far lower than the low bound of the actual quotation, but it also gives us a general idea of where the equilibrium point of the market can exist, and the current bitcoin quotation is actually unsustainable.