BTC's latest analysis

1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas

2.

The impact of the okex incident on the currency market is fading; With the US election becoming increasingly white hot, the difficulty and hash rate of bitcoin are higher than before

in terms of price, so far, BTC has rushed to around us $11720, with a 24-hour increase of more than 2%

so the question is: where will bitcoin go in the next week

here are five factors that may affect the BTC price trend in the coming week

No.1 US macro level: election and stimulus plan this week, the US is the absolute focus of the macro market. The US presidential election will soon usher in a decisive moment (November 3)

analysts warn that if the Democratic Party (Biden) wins, the dollar will depreciate - and the long-term outlook for the dollar is already precarious. Goldman Sachs said last week that Trump's re-election was not enough to get the dollar out of danger

however, no matter what the election result is, professionals recommend buying gold as a hedge. However, in the view of others, bitcoin may bring more profits

However, e to the inverse correlation between BTC / USD and the dollar currency index (DXY), the strength of the US dollar, in the view of some bitcoin traders, will still affect the price trend of bitcoin. Although this correlation has become less and less obvious in recent weeks, the sudden weakness of the US dollar is still likely to be a boon for bitcoin

six month chart of US dollar currency index. Source: tradingview

at the same time, not only the election, but also what happened before is also a topic of interest. Specifically, a coronavirus stimulus plan was in place before polling day

If this happens, trillions of dollars of liquidity will increase the growing debt pile of the United States, and Americans will see additional benefits, such as an additional $1200 economic stimulus plan

No.2 Europe suggests more intervention

with the outbreak again, the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further measures

European Central Bank President Christina; In an interview with Le Monde on Monday, Lagarde said the European Central Bank would use more financial instruments if necessary

the European Central Bank's coronavirus stimulus program has purchased a total of 1.5 trillion euros of assets

"We haven't run out of options in our toolbox yet," says Lagarde

brexit is increasingly moving towards "no agreement" brexit, which makes the possibility of instability worse

No.3 the fundamentals of bitcoin have reached a new high

recently, bitcoin has maintained a strong resilience in the face of various black swan events. Influenced by okex, BTC recently dropped below $11200, but recovered steadily soon. So far, it has exceeded $11600

and on the technical level, the fundamentals of bitcoin also maintained a record strength this month

two days ago, the difficulty of the latest adjustment increased by 3.5% than expected

at the same time, the hash rate also climbed to a record high on Monday. At the time of publication, the estimated computing power for mining is 146 exahashs (EH / s) per second

as often reported in the media, the popular theory is that the price follows the hash rate, because the long-term investment prospect of bitcoin is better than ever before

bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart

No.4 analysts focus on $12000 BTC price breakthrough

for famous analyst Micha & # 235; For Lvan de Poppe, the key price conversion of bitcoin is becoming more and more reasonable

in his latest video update on Sunday, he stressed that the significant resistance level of weekly closing price below US $12000 for several consecutive years will soon end

Van de Popper believes that since the beginning of the bear market in early 2018, US $12000 has become the rejection point of the weekly chart, but the consolidation below cannot last forever

he concluded: "we are likely to rebound to the range of US $16000 to US $17000, because this is the obvious level and the last obstacle for bitcoin to begin to break through the all-time high."

after this move, there will be another consolidation period, which may last longer than the current period

van der BOPP added that he advised viewers to work hard to accumulate bitcoin, even in the $16000 range

BTC / USD 7-day price trend chart. Data source: coin360

No.5 market sentiment: greed is back

with the graal strengthening of prices, investor sentiment is also changing: data shows that investor sentiment is becoming more and more greedy. In the latest market data, the fear and greed index has returned to the "greedy" area, rising slightly from "neutral" in the past week

this indicates that bitcoin investors' emotional expectations will be bullish, but it should be noted that if the price rises too fast, "greed" will become "extreme greed", in which case the index is more likely to callback

3. Since the issue price of bitcoin was 0.008 cents in 2009, the highest price of bitcoin has risen to 1280 US dollars (equivalent to more than 8000 RMB). Now the price has been maintained at 2000-3000 RMB. Because the mining time has been very long, and now the price has been in a declining stage, so bitcoin is no longer a first chance. Khan is the successor of bitcoin The third generation of digital cryptocurrency, the current Khan currency, is equivalent to the bitcoin of 2009. Its price is very low, and it has only entered China for nearly two months

4. In the last rising cycle, BTC usually experienced multiple 30% + correction, and the average increase after each correction was 153%. That is to say, if you can buy accurately at every low point, you can get an average return of 150%
since then, the pie has risen to US $14000 for more than a month. Today, it has been nearly two months since this high point. At present, the range of shock is almost a 30% callback
so, according to the historical situation, we are likely to experience another 150% rise this year? And if it can be realized in the next few months, it also means that the bear market is really far away from us:
however, it should be noted that the above is based on the rising cycle in history, and now, logically speaking, we can't be 100% sure that we must be in a rising cycle now. If we choose this chart today, we also want to remind the players who are looking at the general trend, Or we should be cautious to do some catch-up and sell down, or wait for a "bottom hunting" point, because it is possible to miss one or two times the income of ten or twenty points
time really flies. It is expected that bitcoin will rise to US $15000 by the end of the year

5. Many sellers are often troubled, this is clearly their own Buyer show, but was plagiarized, the result of sales were super. For buyers, the display pictures are the same, but the quality of buyers is greatly reced. Alipay applies the blockchain technology to protect the "seller show" and has launched a tool for businesses to "steal pictures and protect their rights" - que, which provides one-stop online self-service such as picture right confirmation, infringement forensics and evidence verification. The evidence meets the standards of judicial recognition. Combined with Alipay blockchain, it makes use of traceability and tamper proof features to enable businesses to "steal pictures and protect rights" online. That is to say, when the owner of the seller who uses the magpie chisel to store the certificate is infringed by the pirated map, he can use the right certificate on the blockchain to rightfully ask the other party to "delete the map", and he will no longer be troubled by the "difficulty of proof". In this way, it also promotes the original sellers' enthusiasm for creativity and design.