94 Black Swan bitcoin
the issuance of bitcoin does not depend on indivials or teams, but through a process called "mining". By solving the problem of cryptography, people get the right to create new blocks and get rewards. It can be said that the new bitcoin is proced to reward miners to verify blocks. In the beginning, 50 bitcoins were awarded for each block packed. Nakamoto designed a set of rules. For every 210000 blocks excavated (about four years), the reward will be halved. This is what we call "halving" event
the first half was at the end of 2012, when 50 bitcoins were awarded to the 210000 block, but only 25 bitcoins were awarded to the 210001 block
the second half took place in the middle of 2016, and the reward was halved again, so 12.5 bitcoins were awarded in 420001 block
and so on...
until around 2140, 21 million bitcoins were g up, and then they stopped rewarding
Why do we need this half design? If bitcoin is issued too fast and there is no circulation limit, there will be a large amount of bitcoin in circulation in the market, and it will definitely be greatly devalued. One thing to remember: bitcoin is valuable. First, the number of bitcoins is fixed, that is 21 million; Moreover, through the halving process, inflation in the bitcoin economy can be suppressed
the third halving will take place in May this year. Let's wait and see.
The impact of the okex incident on the currency market is fading; With the US election becoming increasingly white hot, the difficulty and hash rate of bitcoin are higher than before
in terms of price, so far, BTC has rushed to around us $11720, with a 24-hour increase of more than 2%
so the question is: where will bitcoin go in the next week
here are five factors that may affect the BTC price trend in the coming week
No.1 US macro level: election and stimulus plan this week, the US is the absolute focus of the macro market. The US presidential election will soon usher in a decisive moment (November 3)
analysts warn that if the Democratic Party (Biden) wins, the dollar will depreciate - and the long-term outlook for the dollar is already precarious. Goldman Sachs said last week that Trump's re-election was not enough to get the dollar out of danger
however, no matter what the election result is, professionals recommend buying gold as a hedge. However, in the view of others, bitcoin may bring more profits
However, e to the inverse correlation between BTC / USD and the dollar currency index (DXY), the strength of the US dollar, in the view of some bitcoin traders, will still affect the price trend of bitcoin. Although this correlation has become less and less obvious in recent weeks, the sudden weakness of the US dollar is still likely to be a boon for bitcoin
six month chart of US dollar currency index. Source: tradingview
at the same time, not only the election, but also what happened before is also a topic of interest. Specifically, a coronavirus stimulus plan was in place before polling day
If this happens, trillions of dollars of liquidity will increase the growing debt pile of the United States, and Americans will see additional benefits, such as an additional $1200 economic stimulus planNo.2 Europe suggests more intervention
with the outbreak again, the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further measures
European Central Bank President Christina; In an interview with Le Monde on Monday, Lagarde said the European Central Bank would use more financial instruments if necessary
the European Central Bank's coronavirus stimulus program has purchased a total of 1.5 trillion euros of assets
"We haven't run out of options in our toolbox yet," says Lagardebrexit is increasingly moving towards "no agreement" brexit, which makes the possibility of instability worse
No.3 the fundamentals of bitcoin have reached a new high
recently, bitcoin has maintained a strong resilience in the face of various black swan events. Influenced by okex, BTC recently dropped below $11200, but recovered steadily soon. So far, it has exceeded $11600
and on the technical level, the fundamentals of bitcoin also maintained a record strength this month
two days ago, the difficulty of the latest adjustment increased by 3.5% than expected
at the same time, the hash rate also climbed to a record high on Monday. At the time of publication, the estimated computing power for mining is 146 exahashs (EH / s) per second
as often reported in the media, the popular theory is that the price follows the hash rate, because the long-term investment prospect of bitcoin is better than ever before
bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart
No.4 analysts focus on $12000 BTC price breakthrough
for famous analyst Micha & # 235; For Lvan de Poppe, the key price conversion of bitcoin is becoming more and more reasonable
in his latest video update on Sunday, he stressed that the significant resistance level of weekly closing price below US $12000 for several consecutive years will soon end
Van de Popper believes that since the beginning of the bear market in early 2018, US $12000 has become the rejection point of the weekly chart, but the consolidation below cannot last forever
he concluded: "we are likely to rebound to the range of US $16000 to US $17000, because this is the obvious level and the last obstacle for bitcoin to begin to break through the all-time high."
after this move, there will be another consolidation period, which may last longer than the current period
van der BOPP added that he advised viewers to work hard to accumulate bitcoin, even in the $16000 range
BTC / USD 7-day price trend chart. Data source: coin360
No.5 market sentiment: greed is back
with the graal strengthening of prices, investor sentiment is also changing: data shows that investor sentiment is becoming more and more greedy. In the latest market data, the fear and greed index has returned to the "greedy" area, rising slightly from "neutral" in the past week
this indicates that bitcoin investors' emotional expectations will be bullish, but it should be noted that if the price rises too fast, "greed" will become "extreme greed", in which case the index is more likely to callback
in terms of price, so far, BTC has rushed to around us $11720, with a 24-hour increase of more than 2%
so the question is: where will bitcoin go in the next week
here are five factors that may affect the BTC price trend in the coming week<
No.1 US macro level: election and stimulus plan
this week, the US is the absolute focus of the macro market. The US presidential election will soon usher in a decisive moment (November 3)<
analysts warn that if the Democratic Party (Biden) wins, the dollar will depreciate - and the long-term outlook for the dollar is already precarious. Goldman Sachs said last week that Trump's re-election was not enough to get the dollar out of danger
however, no matter what the election result is, professionals recommend buying gold as a hedge. However, in the view of others, bitcoin may bring more profits
however, e to the inverse correlation between BTC / USD and US dollar currency index (DXY), the strength of US dollar will still affect the price trend of bitcoin in the view of some bitcoin traders. Although this correlation has become less and less obvious in recent weeks, the sudden weakness of the US dollar is still likely to be a boon for bitcoin
six month chart of US dollar currency index. Source: tradingview
at the same time, not only the election, but also what happened before is also a topic of interest. Specifically, a coronavirus stimulus plan was in place before polling day
if this happens, trillions of dollars of liquidity will increase the growing debt pile of the United States, and Americans will see additional benefits, such as an additional $1200 economic stimulus plan
No.2 Europe suggests more intervention
with the outbreak again, the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further measures
European Central Bank President Christina; In an interview with Le Monde on Monday, Lagarde said the European Central Bank would use more financial instruments if necessary
the European Central Bank's coronavirus stimulus program has purchased a total of 1.5 trillion euros of assets
Lagarde said: "we haven't exhausted the options in our toolbox."
brexit is increasingly moving towards "no agreement" brexit, which makes the possibility of instability worse<
the fundamentals of No.3 bitcoin have reached a new high
recently, bitcoin has maintained a strong resilience in the face of various black swan events. Influenced by okex, BTC recently dropped below $11200, but recovered steadily soon. So far, it has exceeded $11600
on the technical level, the fundamentals of bitcoin also maintained a record strength this month
two days ago, the difficulty of the latest adjustment increased by 3.5% than expected
at the same time, the hashing rate also climbed to an all-time high on Monday. At the time of publication, the estimated computing power for mining is 146 exahashs (EH / s) per second
as often reported in the media, the popular theory is that the price follows the hash rate, because the long-term investment prospect of bitcoin is better than ever before<
bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart
No.4 analysts focus on the $12000 BTC price breakthrough
for the famous analyst Micha & # 235; For Lvan de Poppe, the key price conversion of bitcoin is becoming more and more reasonable
in his latest video update on Sunday, he stressed that the significant resistance level of weekly closing price below $12000 for several consecutive years will soon end<
Van de Pope believes that since the beginning of the bear market in early 2018, US $12000 has become the rejection point of the weekly chart, but the consolidation below can not last forever
he concluded: "we are likely to rebound to the range of US $16000 to US $17000, because this is the obvious level and the last obstacle for bitcoin to begin to break through the all-time high."
after this move, there will be another consolidation period, which may last longer than the current period
van der BOPP added that he advised viewers to work hard to accumulate bitcoin, even in the $16000 range
BTC / USD 7-day price trend chart. Data source: coin360
No.5 market sentiment: greed is back
with the graal strengthening of prices, investor sentiment is also changing: data show that investor sentiment is becoming more and more greedy. In the latest market data, the fear and greed index has returned to the "greedy" area, rising slightly from "neutral" in the past week
this indicates that bitcoin investors' emotional expectations will be bullish, but it should be noted that if the price rises too fast, "greed" will become "extreme greed". In this case, the possibility of index correction is greater.
Bitcoin plummeted, and 360000 people burst their positions within 24 hours. This event has also aroused heated discussion among netizens on the Internet. We have to say that we are very familiar with bitcoin. A few years ago, it was an unknown virtual asset. But now, e to Tesla's high-profile entry, it has led to the sharp rise of bitcoin, This time bitcoin crash also let 360000 people burst positions, which is a great pity
Third, when investing, we need to pay attention to more communication with our friends and relatives.
at the same time, we have to say that the price of bitcoin is very high. If it is an ordinary family, it is better to stay away from bitcoin as far as possible. If we really want to invest and manage money, So the financial procts in the bank are more reliable than bitcoin. We all know that the financial procts in the bank are regulated by the state, but bitcoin is outside the law, which makes people feel very unsafe. At the same time, we also need to pay attention to more communication with our relatives and friends when we invest. Don't go your own way. If your family dissuades you, you must listen to them. Only in this way can you avoid losses, because when you are in a hot head, you will encounter some inevitable problems when you invest
I think there is still a market for bitcoin mining, but from the era when ordinary computers can participate in bitcoin mining to today's mines, miners all over the world compete in computing power at the same time. With the increasing number of miners, the difficulty index of the game is getting higher and higher, and it depends on their strength to play it in the end. If you want to open a mine, then the basic costs include mining machinery, electricity, maintenance, labor, mine rental, etc., and the only source of income is to replace the bitcoin with legal currency. Mining machinery will be lost, bitcoin prices will fluctuate, and electricity charges will rise, all of which are uncontrollable therefore, a certain price of bitcoin is lower than the mining cost, which has a great impact on small and medium-sized investors and the vast majority of retail investors, but has almost no impact on the mines with huge financial support. There is a market for mining, but retail investors and small and medium-sized investors are graally eliminated