Bitcoin big data forecast
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it is estimated that 21 million pieces will be excavated in 2140
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according to the relevant literature of bitcoin, in 2140, 2100 bitcoins will be proced and will not grow any more. According to the principle of bitcoin, after 33 halving periods, the mining output of each block will reach 0.58 Cong, less than the minimum unit of one Cong. The interval of each half rection is 210000 blocks, and the total proction time (2140 years) given in the above literature is calculated from the proction time of each block of 10 minutes 210000 * 10 / 60 / 24 / 365 = 3.9954 * 33 = 132 years. Since 2008, 132 years later, it is 2140 years)
however, the "proction time of each block is 10 minutes" used in the above calculation method is an ideal state, which is only true when the computing power and difficulty of the whole network do not change. Looking at the bitcoin blockchain, it is not difficult to find that bitcoin's whole network computing power has been growing for a long time, and the difficulty of mining has also increased. Therefore, it is not difficult to find out that the above calculation is not tenable and there is a huge error
the shortcomings of the above methods are that they can not accurately predict the change of bitcoin network computing power and the mining speed of bitcoin. The 11.3-day data used in the above calculation method is only the average value from May 2013 to April 5, 2014, and the representativeness is questionable. We can integrate the results of big data analysis and mining machine proction to establish a more accurate mathematical model
In the past 24 hours, more than 110000 people in bitcoin have burst their positions, and 5.8 billion funds have been swallowed. In fact, I think the team is cutting leeks. In fact, the decline of bitcoin can be met in advance, and nothing can prosper all the time, So for most people, they still need to maintain a rational attitude to buy some funds or stocks and bonds. If it becomes a state of large-scale loss, then their money will be tied up, which is certainly not very good for them. Our attitude towards bitcoin is that it will not decline, it will only rise, So most people may not consider this situation and put all their money into it, but in such a situation, if the institutions withdraw their funds, they will inevitably face a lot of capital losses of retail investors
however, in the face of such a situation, we must understand that not all such things can have an answer, such as this kind of irregular things. As an ordinary investor, if we want to buy opportunistically, we may have to bear a greater risk, but in the face of the relative institutional investment, They may take less risk, because the risk they need to take is actually created by them. For most institutions, if they want to go up in the last stock, the probability of the stock's rise may be much greater than the probability of its decline. As for bitcoin, more than 110000 people burst their positions in the past 24 hours and 5.8 billion funds were swallowed, losing money in succession, in fact, I think the team is cutting leeks