The impact of futures on special currency
Publish: 2021-05-13 04:15:04
1. As a financial technology enthusiast, kuanke online Xiaobian, I think, there are several major factors to promote
1, the short-term factors that determine the price: supply and demand and market sentiment
the relationship between supply and demand means that if the amount of money spent on buying bitcoin is more than that spent on selling bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will rise. If more people buy bitcoin, it will rise
market sentiment refers to the views of the market and the media on the price trend of bitcoin at that time. When many people strongly see bitcoin, the market sentiment is confident, and the price of bitcoin will rise rapidly. If the media makes pessimistic reports on the price of bitcoin, it will affect people's confidence and lead people to sell bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin will fall
2, the medium-term factors that determine the price: policy, news and mining cost
on the policy side, it is the policy attitude of governments towards bitcoin. For example, the recent crackdown and regulation of bitcoin by the South Korean government has led to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the near future. If more and more countries support and encourage the development of bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will be higher and higher. On the contrary, if many countries begin to suppress bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall
on the news side, there are some important things in the bitcoin instry. For example, around December, the two major stock exchanges in the United States launched bitcoin futures, which are good for bitcoin and directly push the price of bitcoin up to about $20000
mining cost is the cost of bitcoin miners using machines to dig out bitcoin. At present, the cost of digging out a bitcoin is about 12000 US dollars, so it is difficult for the price of bitcoin to fall below 12000 US dollars. Mining cost is the bottom line of bitcoin price. With the continuous increase of mining costs, the reason is that more competitors enter the mining field, especially many large institutions, companies and countries
3 determines the long-term price factors: the US dollar trend, the global bubble, the official digital currency, and the block chain technology.
the trend of the US dollar. According to the personal analysis data, the US dollar will weaken in the next few years, which means that the global monetary system with us dollar as the world currency in the past will be rebuilt. The rise and future of bitcoin is to assume the identity and mission of the world currency
global bubble. Since the United States abolished the gold standard Bretton Woods system in 70s, many countries in the United States have been printing banknote printing machines. The bubble of currency has caused the global economic bubble and asset bubble. The global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is the crisis triggered by the currency bubble. At present, the global economic bubble and asset bubble have reached the critical point of collapse. The birth of bitcoin was e to the reason of the currency bubble, which made people no longer believe in the currency of national credit, and began to believe and recognize bitcoin.
official digital currency, countries around the world have begun to prepare to issue official digital currency, that is, digital currency issued by countries. Venezuela has issued a national level digital currency - Petroleum currency. Israel is preparing to issue it, Russia is also preparing to issue it, and the Japanese government is issuing it. 2018 will become the first year of the global official digital currency. The accelerated launch of official digital currency and its increasing popularity show that the value of bitcoin as internet currency is unlimited.
1, the short-term factors that determine the price: supply and demand and market sentiment
the relationship between supply and demand means that if the amount of money spent on buying bitcoin is more than that spent on selling bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will rise. If more people buy bitcoin, it will rise
market sentiment refers to the views of the market and the media on the price trend of bitcoin at that time. When many people strongly see bitcoin, the market sentiment is confident, and the price of bitcoin will rise rapidly. If the media makes pessimistic reports on the price of bitcoin, it will affect people's confidence and lead people to sell bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin will fall
2, the medium-term factors that determine the price: policy, news and mining cost
on the policy side, it is the policy attitude of governments towards bitcoin. For example, the recent crackdown and regulation of bitcoin by the South Korean government has led to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the near future. If more and more countries support and encourage the development of bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will be higher and higher. On the contrary, if many countries begin to suppress bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall
on the news side, there are some important things in the bitcoin instry. For example, around December, the two major stock exchanges in the United States launched bitcoin futures, which are good for bitcoin and directly push the price of bitcoin up to about $20000
mining cost is the cost of bitcoin miners using machines to dig out bitcoin. At present, the cost of digging out a bitcoin is about 12000 US dollars, so it is difficult for the price of bitcoin to fall below 12000 US dollars. Mining cost is the bottom line of bitcoin price. With the continuous increase of mining costs, the reason is that more competitors enter the mining field, especially many large institutions, companies and countries
3 determines the long-term price factors: the US dollar trend, the global bubble, the official digital currency, and the block chain technology.
the trend of the US dollar. According to the personal analysis data, the US dollar will weaken in the next few years, which means that the global monetary system with us dollar as the world currency in the past will be rebuilt. The rise and future of bitcoin is to assume the identity and mission of the world currency
global bubble. Since the United States abolished the gold standard Bretton Woods system in 70s, many countries in the United States have been printing banknote printing machines. The bubble of currency has caused the global economic bubble and asset bubble. The global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is the crisis triggered by the currency bubble. At present, the global economic bubble and asset bubble have reached the critical point of collapse. The birth of bitcoin was e to the reason of the currency bubble, which made people no longer believe in the currency of national credit, and began to believe and recognize bitcoin.
official digital currency, countries around the world have begun to prepare to issue official digital currency, that is, digital currency issued by countries. Venezuela has issued a national level digital currency - Petroleum currency. Israel is preparing to issue it, Russia is also preparing to issue it, and the Japanese government is issuing it. 2018 will become the first year of the global official digital currency. The accelerated launch of official digital currency and its increasing popularity show that the value of bitcoin as internet currency is unlimited.
2. The main reason is that different trading mechanisms and trading platforms lead to different trading volumes. The gap between the spot prices of various platforms is generally very small, but sometimes futures are very large, because futures are a kind of hedging
bitcoin is a consensus network, contributing to a new payment system and a fully digital currency. It is the first decentralized peer-to-peer payment network, which is controlled by its users without a central management organization or middleman. From the user's point of view, bitcoin is much like Internet cash. Bitcoin can also be regarded as the most outstanding three style bookkeeping system.
bitcoin is a consensus network, contributing to a new payment system and a fully digital currency. It is the first decentralized peer-to-peer payment network, which is controlled by its users without a central management organization or middleman. From the user's point of view, bitcoin is much like Internet cash. Bitcoin can also be regarded as the most outstanding three style bookkeeping system.
3.
Bitcoin is no stranger to a person who loves to invest. In 2008, bitcoin still appeared in our view at a very low price. But 18 years later, the price of bitcoin began to soar, and soon broke through the 10000 yuan mark. Now, bitcoin has exceeded 100000 yuan each, and bitcoin is not a real capital or material property, but a virtual currency. In the Internet, the value of such a virtual currency has been speculation above 100000 yuan. What is behind such madness
Some people also take advantage of this loophole to buy virtual currency abroad in the way of RMB, and finally cash out through trading, which is also a violation of China's foreign exchange system. Such a practice will undoubtedly lead to fire and even prison. Of course, the price of bitcoin is so high nowadays that most of the people who can afford to buy bitcoin are economic tycoons, and there will be no retail investors taking over< br />4. On the delivery date of stock index futures, generally speaking, there will be a delivery date effect, or maturity date effect, delivery date curse and so on
the so-called & quot; The curse of delivery day;, That is to say, on the settlement day of stock index futures, the trading volume and volatility of futures and spot will increase significantly. The reason is that stock index futures use cash delivery, arbitrage trading and position shifting trading will occur on the same day, resulting in fluctuations in the spot market. The most obvious performance is the sharp drop in the spot market
delivery: the transfer of spot goods between the seller of futures contract and the buyer of futures contract. All exchanges have specific proceres for the delivery of spot commodities. Some futures contracts, such as stock index contracts, are settled in cash
delivery date: - the date on which the parties agree to exchange money. According to the rules of the Chicago Board of trade, the delivery date is the third day in the delivery process. The contract buyer's clearing company must deliver the delivery notice together with a full amount certified check to the office of the contract seller's Clearing Company on the delivery date. Delivery in futures means that when your futures contract is e, you need to make physical delivery. That is, when the futures contract is e, the seller should perform his ties according to the law stipulated in the contract, and the buyer should pay for the goods in full. Generally used for legal person
The Curse of delivery date is the "maturity effect", which is common in overseas markets. In mature markets, the "triple witch effect" often occurs, that is, when stock index futures and options mature, some trading phenomena that are different from usual occur. Relevant studies found that: in the last hour of the simultaneous maturity of all index derivatives contracts, there will be an abnormally large trading volume and small stock price volatility. In the last half hour before the closing of maturity, the trading activity of S & P500 stock decreased significantly, and increased significantly in the opening stage of maturity. It is worth mentioning that before the official launch of stock index futures in China, Singapore launched Xinhua FTSE A50 stock index futures. Even if it was as far away as Wanli, the delivery date of A50 futures still had an impact on a shares. Among them, in the last round of bull market, several deep-seated falls of investors, such as "2.27", "5.30" and "6.27", were related to the maturity and delivery of Singapore FTSE A50 Index futures contract to a certain extent. A50 is highly correlated with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index. The impact of its delivery date on a shares has won it the nickname of "A50 curse"
the so-called & quot; The curse of delivery day;, That is to say, on the settlement day of stock index futures, the trading volume and volatility of futures and spot will increase significantly. The reason is that stock index futures use cash delivery, arbitrage trading and position shifting trading will occur on the same day, resulting in fluctuations in the spot market. The most obvious performance is the sharp drop in the spot market
delivery: the transfer of spot goods between the seller of futures contract and the buyer of futures contract. All exchanges have specific proceres for the delivery of spot commodities. Some futures contracts, such as stock index contracts, are settled in cash
delivery date: - the date on which the parties agree to exchange money. According to the rules of the Chicago Board of trade, the delivery date is the third day in the delivery process. The contract buyer's clearing company must deliver the delivery notice together with a full amount certified check to the office of the contract seller's Clearing Company on the delivery date. Delivery in futures means that when your futures contract is e, you need to make physical delivery. That is, when the futures contract is e, the seller should perform his ties according to the law stipulated in the contract, and the buyer should pay for the goods in full. Generally used for legal person
The Curse of delivery date is the "maturity effect", which is common in overseas markets. In mature markets, the "triple witch effect" often occurs, that is, when stock index futures and options mature, some trading phenomena that are different from usual occur. Relevant studies found that: in the last hour of the simultaneous maturity of all index derivatives contracts, there will be an abnormally large trading volume and small stock price volatility. In the last half hour before the closing of maturity, the trading activity of S & P500 stock decreased significantly, and increased significantly in the opening stage of maturity. It is worth mentioning that before the official launch of stock index futures in China, Singapore launched Xinhua FTSE A50 stock index futures. Even if it was as far away as Wanli, the delivery date of A50 futures still had an impact on a shares. Among them, in the last round of bull market, several deep-seated falls of investors, such as "2.27", "5.30" and "6.27", were related to the maturity and delivery of Singapore FTSE A50 Index futures contract to a certain extent. A50 is highly correlated with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index. The impact of its delivery date on a shares has won it the nickname of "A50 curse"
5. http://www.wakuangtu.com
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6. As bitcoin is a virtual currency, and it is also issued on the Internet, it has little influence at present. However, because it is a new thing after all, and stock futures are the representative of bulk goods and company performance, bitcoin is a virtual currency, but it can be purchased. Therefore, the influence between them remains to be observed and studied.
7. Futures can be bullish or bearish, but bitcoin can only be bullish
8. Bitcoin is a virtual currency, not futures. Futures use margin to buy and sell commodities. If the position is not closed, the actual transaction must be carried out after the maturity date.
9. You may have misunderstood this. There are futures exchanges both at home and abroad
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