Bitcoin bifurcation risk free arbitrage
About bitcoin, the news is flying all over the world these two days
specifically, a foundation called BTN foundation announced that it has set up a bitcoin bifurcated development team to launch a new bitcoin bifurcated BTN. Now its official website is online, which is called btn.kim. Two days later, bitgo, another bitcoin development team, announced that it would fork out from bitcoin. Its name is BTF, which literally means "bitcoin faith"
according to Yao yuan, a well-known bitcoin columnist, bitcoin will "have 10 children" in December, and will at least bifurcate out of 10 "children" such as BCX, SBTC and LBTC
as soon as these things happened, the bitcoin market began to fluctuate again, some investors blew up, and all kinds of rumors came out: why so many forks? Is bitcoin out of order
in fact, the bifurcating of bitcoin is far more complicated than what it shows. If we don't explain its historical background clearly, we really can't understand what happened
< b > the origin of bifurcations: the origin of the bifurcations of bitcoin has existed. The so-called bifurcations refer to the accounting differences caused by different underlying protocols. According to Xue Hongyan, director of the Internet financial center of Suning Financial Research Institute, bitcoin is jointly maintained by a number of point-to-point decentralized nodes. The orderly operation of the whole system depends on the consensus of all nodes, that is, there is a set of recognized standards for key issues such as which transactions are acceptable and which nodes have accounting rights. This set of standards is deployed in the underlying protocol of blockchain and implemented automatically
but nodes are operated by people after all, which is the so-called "miner", but everything operated by people will be different. For example, the miners of some nodes go online every day, while the miners of some nodes go online occasionally; Some nodes are in the eastern hemisphere, some nodes are in the Western Hemisphere... In a word, e to various reasons, over time, bitcoin has different underlying protocols in different nodes
if different versions of underlying protocols are running in a node, different standards will appear, which will result in bifurcation. If the nodes can deal with these version differences and finally form a unified standard, the bifurcation will eventually disappear, which is called soft bifurcation. If the difference cannot be eliminated, when some nodes continue to run different versions of the protocol, the bifurcation will continue, which is called hard bifurcation
it's easy to solve the problem of soft bifurcation, that is, if the account book is wrong, just modify it. Hard bifurcations are not easy to solve. No one thinks he is wrong and explains them according to his own standards. In the end, he can only go his own way and keep his own account. At present, bitcoin bifurcation refers to hard bifurcation
< b > the first bifurcations: the first hard bifurcations of bitcoin technology upgrade are purely technical reasons. The settlement performance of bitcoin itself is limited. According to the original technical agreement, bitcoin can only support up to seven settlements per second. This was not a problem in the early days. With the fire of bitcoin, more and more people flocked in, and the settlement became more frequent than ever. At this time, the original technology was not enough
therefore, in the middle of 2017, some miners proposed new technology agreements, but the other miners did not agree with them. Eventually, both sides held one end and ran their own underlying agreements, which was the first bifurcation in the history of bitcoin
However, with the development of bitcoin trading means, speculators graally regard the bifurcation as a means of money collection, which leads to a great change in the nature of the current bifurcationthe principle is that each bifurcation is essentially equivalent to the issue of a new digital currency, which is linked to bitcoin. The target audience is larger than the general ICO, and it is easier to be accepted by ordinary users than issuing a new digital currency directly
because the team that creates this kind of bifurcation takes the lead, it is very easy to control the transaction of the new currency, especially in the early stage, and it only needs a small cost to control the price trend of the whole currency. This leaves a lot of room for speculation. The forked team only needs to make the new currency accepted by the users, and then it can artificially raise the price to a sky high price. After the real users come in, they can sell all the money they hoard, and get high profits out of thin air
on October 25 this year, a domestic team forked out bitcoin gold (BTG). Two days before the forking, Jiang Zhuoer, CEO of leibitchi, denounced the forking as money looping: "Liao Xiang, founder of BTG, had g 200000 BTG coins in advance before the forking, and wanted to convert them into 20000 bitcoins, looping 80 million yuan."
The advantage of bifurcations can be seen, so that the word "bifurcations create value" has become popular in the field of currency speculation. For this reason, a new word "IFO" - first token issue has been derivedHe Sheng, a well-known financial blogger, once told the media that most of the so-called IFO may evolve into the operation of collecting money by harvesting leeks. "Many previous ICOS are doing IFO, and ICO needs to write a white paper and go to the stock exchange to gain market recognition, while IFO does not even need to write a white paper."
this also explains why bitcoin is becoming more and more profitable. To put it bluntly, everyone wants Nakamoto
Can< b > not bifurcate
whether it's Hong shuning of Suning finance, or Mike & Chen, CEO of bitgo, a bitcoin wallet software provider and one of the project leaders of segwit2x; Mike belshe, the instry actually refuses this bifurcation of bitcoin. In fact, real blockchain practitioners have always hated speculation. At present, the leading enterprises in the domestic blockchain instry have clearly expressed their opposition to the overflow of bitcoin bifurcation. For example, when Xunlei launched the first popular blockchain project in China, its CEO Chen Lei said in an interview: "Xunlei opposes all speculative activities using blockchain, so it is definitely against bitcoin for the purpose of speculation and leek cutting arbitrage."
However, to solve this problem, it is not enough to have an attitude alone, but to have specific means. The best way is not to let bitcoin bifurcatethis is difficult to achieve. Bitcoin's own technology is a relatively primitive blockchain technology with limited computing power. It can barely cope with the previous transaction scale. In view of the current situation of bitcoin fire, it is difficult to support. So sooner or later bitcoin will have to solve the problem of its own computing power
but there is no hope at all. With the innovation of blockchain technology, there will always be some new ways. For example, the shared computing proposed by Xunlei can effectively improve the total amount of computing power and rece the cost per unit of computing power without changing the existing hardware facilities. If bitcoin is combined with shared computing, it can effectively solve the problem of bitcoin's computing power limit without new bifurcation
secondly, the bifurcations for the purpose of cutting Chinese chives can be supervised by means of supervision. For example, compared with the real name system of special currency wallet, the real name system of transactions can effectively prevent the risk of Financial Bureau. At present, the real name system has been implemented in some blockchain projects, and has achieved good results. For example, Xunlei's blockchain is the first blockchain application to introce the real name system in China, which basically eliminates the hidden danger of malicious speculation
in a word, there is a way. It depends on whether bitcoin players accept it or not, and there is a process to implement it. It takes time. Therefore, at this stage, it is better for us to stay away from the bifurcations of bitcoin in various names
Q: What is bitcoin bifurcation and why
A: the reason why bitcoin bifurcates is that the underlying technology of bitcoin is blockchain. Some people begin to think that bitcoin's block capacity is too small and there are always congestion. So they ask for bitcoin's upgrade and expansion. Some people think that bitcoin's function is too single and its future development is not optimistic, So these people ask bitcoin to have the function of building DAPP (decentralized application), and some support it, while others oppose it. This kind of divergence can be understood as the bifurcation of bitcoin
Q: the classification of bitcoin bifurcation
A: there are two kinds of bifurcations of bitcoin, one is soft bifurcations, the other is hard bifurcations, so what is soft bifurcations
Q: the formation principle of soft bifurcation
A: soft fork refers to optimizing and modifying bugs in the original bitcoin network to improve the capacity of the block, such as 2m, 4m or 8m, 16m. The segwit lightning network is the mainstream solution, which is equivalent to a traffic jam on the main road, and the development team will build an auxiliary road to help the main road to divert congestion
this is a mild solution, which can make the original bitcoin network compatible with the network after soft bifurcation, and the main transaction of bitcoin is still on the main chain
Q: disadvantages of soft bifurcation
A: of course, there are disadvantages of soft bifurcation, that is, it can only solve the temporary congestion problem, and after the implementation of soft bifurcation, it can only keep the network unobstructed for a few years. In the future, it needs continuous expansion, which has an impact on the stability of the system
Q: what is hard bifurcation and its formation principle
A: another solution is hard fork, which means to upgrade the bitcoin system again, change the height of the block completely in the form of code, and take bitcoin unlimited as the mainstream solution. Generally speaking, it is equivalent to a traffic jam on the main road. We directly abandon this road and find a place to build a three-dimensional transportation hub on the ground and underground. All new cars use this transportation system, which changes the block size of the bitcoin network and optimizes the processing speed of the network
Q: what are the disadvantages of hard bifurcation
A: but hard bifurcations also have disadvantages, that is, they are not compatible with the original bitcoin system, which requires all people in the bitcoin network to support hard bifurcations. If some people do not support hard bifurcations, there will be two versions of bitcoin network, which will proce two bitcoins. The blockchains of the two bitcoins form a competitive relationship, This kind of internal friction will lead to greater price volatility and uncertainty of bitcoin's future situation
Q: a classic case of bitcoin bifurcation
A: Eth and etc are typical cases of hard bifurcation. The Dao project is a crowdfunding project initiated by slock.it, a blockchain Internet of things company. It was officially released in May 2016. As of June of that year, the Dao project has raised more than $160 million. It wasn't long before the Dao project was targeted by hackers. Because of the huge loopholes in the smart contract, the Dao project was transferred to ether coin with a market value of 50 million US dollars
in order to recover the assets of many investors and stop the panic, vitalik buterin, the founder of Ethereum, finally proposed the idea of hard bifurcation, and finally completed the hard bifurcation in block 1920000 of Ethereum through a majority vote of the community, rolling back all the Ethereum coins occupied by hackers
even though Ethereum hard bifurcates into two chains, some people who believe in the tamper proof property of blockchain still stay on the original chain of Ethereum classic. Today, Ethereum (ETH) and Ethereum classic (etc) are ranked in the top 20 in the global cryptocurrency market value, which is one of the reasons why they are regarded as classic cases in the field of hard bifurcations
Q: the difference and influence between soft bifurcation and hard bifurcation
A: for users, soft forking will not proce new bitcoin currency. They only need to understand the transaction mode and K-line characteristics of bitcoin. They only need a mainstream wallet of bitcoin
hard bifurcation will generate new currencies, and there may be more than one new currency. Once the core code of bitcoin is modified and the core code of bitcoin is reconstructed, there may be a second time for the first time, and btc1 and btc23456789 may all happen. Users will be confused. Which kind of coin would be better for me to trade? What kind of bitcoin do I use to pay for a large circulation range? In short, users with dyschooia will crash. Moreover, users need to download wallets of different hard bifurcated systems, which brings complex operation to save and pay bitcoin
however, correspondingly, the user's right to choose has also increased. You can choose the bitcoin code developed by the development team you like and trust. When the bifurcations of bitcoin are not clear, when the soft bifurcations start to activate and the computing power starts to vote, the best way for users to deal with it is to wait and see. Don't recharge and extract bitcoin in the process of bifurcation
in addition, soft fork will change the settlement mode of bitcoin all nodes, and some small settlement will be confirmed by the third party node, namely settlement channel. The settlement channel may incur part of the service charge. Similar to the role and business model of UnionPay
what is bitcoin bifurcation? The difference and influence of soft bifurcation and hard bifurcation
The capacity of a block in bitcoin is 1m (megabytes). A transaction is between 250 and 500 bytes
according to this algorithm, a block contains about 4194.3 transactions
the confirmation time of a block in bitcoin is 10 minutes, so the seven transactions that a block can process per second may sometimes be less than seven
What are the consequences The bifurcations of
bitcoin are divided into hard bifurcations and soft bifurcations
hard fork means that when the block format or transaction format of bitcoin changes, the UN upgraded nodes refuse to verify the blocks proced by the upgraded nodes
the upgraded nodes can verify the blocks proced by the non upgraded nodes, and they continue the chain they think is correct, so they are divided into two chains
What is soft bifurcationsoft bifurcation means that when the data structure of bitcoin transaction changes,
UN upgraded nodes can verify the blocks proced by upgraded nodes,
and upgraded nodes can also verify the blocks proced by UN upgraded nodes
In the discussion of blockchain, bitcoin and other digital currencies, we often hear the word "bifurcation". So what is bifurcation? What is the effect of bifurcation
blockchain
before talking about bifurcation, popularize a little knowledge of blockchain, so as to help us understand what bifurcation is more easily (if you don't have any concept of blockchain, please read my previous articles, which are all popular words to help you understand what blockchain is)
blockchain, as the name suggests, is a chain composed of blocks. Of course, this kind of chain is just a figurative metaphor. To put it bluntly, data blocks are connected orderly. In bitcoin, the transaction records of bitcoin are stored in the block. The size of the block and the space occupied by the transaction records determine how many transactions can be stored in a block. These transaction records are packaged into blocks, and then the blocks are connected one by one to form a blockchain
We know that bitcoin software, like other software, needs to be updated and modified regularly in order to make it better. So a new version will appear, but not everyone will download the new version, so one miner will run the old version, and some will run the new version. If the old and new versions are not compatible, the blockchain will bifurcate. Because there may be differences between the version blocks and the old version blocks, they cannot be connected to the same blockchain, so there will be two or even more chains, which is called bifurcation
soft forking
soft forking refers to that when the new consensus rules are released, nodes that have not been upgraded will proce illegal blocks because they do not know the new consensus rules, resulting in temporary forking. This kind of bifurcation will be graally repaired with the upgrading of nodes
hard fork
hard fork refers to the permanent divergence of the blockchain. After the release of the new consensus rules, some nodes that have not been upgraded cannot verify the blocks proced by the upgraded nodes, and usually hard fork occurs. Therefore, in the field of digital currency, hard bifurcation often leads to the emergence of new currencies. For example, the hard bifurcation of Ethereum led to the emergence of eth
What is bifurcation? What is bitcoin bifurcationIn short, the principle of brick Arbitrage: buy low and sell high, buy money from the place with low price and sell it at the place with high price, that is to earn the price difference of different platforms
but there are three risks in moving bricks:
A. time difference of currency transfer: it takes a certain waiting time to pick up or deposit the currency, so it may miss the best trading time
B. currency price fluctuation: if the currency price fluctuation is relatively large and the process of moving bricks has not been completed, the price difference has disappeared
C. platform problems: some trading platforms may shut down services from time to time, or even run away
principle: carry out brick arbitrage on two platforms at the same time to avoid the risk of "time difference of currency transfer" and "currency price fluctuation"
before moving bricks: the brick moving platform must support the same currency transaction, and the brick moving platforms must be able to transfer currency to each other
Step 1: price difference calculation. There are handling charges for currency trading and currency transfer, so you have to calculate the cost according to your own funds. Only when the price difference reaches how much can it be profitable to move bricks
Step 2: simultaneous operation. Buy BTC on the low price platform and sell BTC on the high price platform. At this time, the number of BTC holdings remains unchanged and the number of usdt increases You need to pay attention to transaction fees.)
Step 3: balance funds. It is difficult to predict which platform has a lower price and which has a higher price e to the price difference. Therefore, the two platforms that move bricks need to prepare usdt and BTC. When the price difference appears, it is convenient to move bricks There are also handling charges for cross platform currency transfer.)
the above is the principle and steps of risk-free arbitrage using BTC and usdt. It also has a big name: quantitative hedging. The fundamental purpose is to earn usdt, not BTC
You can take a closer look at this: Web linkshere are two ways to carry out risk-free arbitrage in kucoin Futures:
1, Because of the nature of the delivery contract itself, it will be delivered according to the actual bitcoin price on the delivery date, so the final price of the perpetual and the delivery contract will be almost the same.
we can arbitrage in this way that there is a price difference in the early stage and the price is the same in the later stage, The actual situation is that the perpetual price is 7300 dollars and the delivery contract price is 7482 dollars. We buy 100 contracts when the perpetual price is 7300 dollars and sell 100 contracts when the delivery contract is 7482 dollars, When the price difference between the interim delivery contract and the perpetual delivery contract is less than the initial price difference, we can carry out arbitrage for many times.
2. Double short interest arbitrage, risk-free 11% stable annualized income
when you hold BTC, you are bullish on BTC; When BTC falls by $3000, you will lose $3000. But you don't want to play BTC, you just want to make money with your RMB or US dollars, so you can double short bitcoin in kucoin futures. Double short bitcoin will never burst. At this time, the rise and fall of bitcoin has nothing to do with you, You don't need to have any relationship with bitcoin's data and market. Because the kucoin futures contract mechanism has a great probability that long users will give short users a small amount of interest every 8 hours, and the annualized stable income will be more than 10%.
note: you must take a position in the perpetual contract