Investment analysis of bitcoin

1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas

2.

Last night's bitcoin was destined to be recorded in history

at 2:00 a.m., bitcoin suddenly plummeted, rapidly falling by nearly $1500. 3: 45, bitcoin fell rapidly from $9700 to a low of $7998. This is the first time since mid June that bitcoin has fallen below $8000, the lowest level in four months

The sharp drop in the price of the currency has brought about a terrible situation in the contract market, which was full of blood last night

according to the statistics of coin data, in the past 24 hours, a total of 920 million usdt (about RMB 6.65 billion) of burst orders were added

"bitcoin crash" also appeared on the microblog hot search list again two months later

it is worth noting that a few days ago, there was news in the market that "the Central Bank of China will issue digital currency within 80 days". At a news conference yesterday (September 24), Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, said that there is no timetable for the introction of digital currency. He said the goal of digital currency and electronic payment in the future is to replace part of cash

bitcoin plummeted by more than 15% in 100 minutes

below US $8000

last night, the collapse of bitcoin shocked investors again

at 2:00 a.m., bitcoin suddenly plummeted, rapidly falling by nearly $1500. 3: 45, bitcoin fell to a low of $7998, down more than 15%. This is the first time since mid June that bitcoin has fallen below $8000, the lowest level in four months

"in terms of bitcoin, this is quite a rare event," said Qiao Wang, proct director of messari, a New York based cryptocurrency centric data and research company

so far, bitcoin has plummeted nearly 35% from the highest point of US $13355 in the year

this means that bitcoin's bull market in 2019 is in trouble

since September 2, BTC has started to collapse from a bearish downward triangle, which has been noticed by most people in the cryptocurrency twitter community

some market participants said that the decline of bitcoin was partly e to technical factors. They pointed out that the digital currency has been falling in a triangle, which is a bearish signal

ZBG CMO Lizzie of the Hong Kong digital currency exchange
Lo told the fund that a series of expectations have been digested, including the expected baktt exchange online, but the trading is flat. In addition, the institutions will make corresponding strategic adjustments,
several major institutions short bitcoin

It is reported that bakkt is one of the main catalysts for the sharp rise in bitcoin prices earlier this year. However, he further added that it is too early to see the long-term impact of this futures proct on bitcoin

as of the press release, the price of bitcoin was $8651.53, down 11.08% in the past 24 hours

and the coin circle is also full of sorrow: EOS, Ethereum, etc. all fell by more than 10%

however, Lizzie Lo said that after a round of slump,
it noticed that usdt, a stable currency, had a large premium as a ticket for investment in the currency circle, which meant that there was a lot of money on the sidelines. In the medium and long term, it believes in the consensus of bitcoin, and the downward adjustment only gives opportunities for traditional funds that had not entered the market

investors were awakened by qiangping's SMS in the middle of the night

the overall collapse of the currency circle has brought about a miserable contract market, which was full of blood last night

according to the statistics of coin data, in the past 24 hours, a total of 920 million usdt (about RMB 6.65 billion) of burst orders were added. Among them, bitcoin added 6.34 million burst warehouse receipts, about 72000
BTC; EOS added 9.79 million explosive warehouse receipts, about 36.07 million EOS; Ethereum added 10.5 million explosive warehouse receipts, about 652000 eth

some bitcoin investors said that they woke up in the middle of the night last night, received a burst SMS, and then couldn't sleep any more...

the long short ratio ranged from 2:1 to 1:1

however, there were also those who made a lot of money by shorting:

according to the triple BTC short index of ZBG platform, the short profit reached its peak at 3:30 on September 25. So far, the short index has grown by 33.5% in 24 hours

Lizzie Lo points out that at 3:30 a.m., the triple shorting index reaches its peak, which means that the most people are short at that time

under the crazy counterattack of bears, the market long short ratio was slaughtered from 2:1 to 1:1

in addition, as investors sought to close their positions in the crazy sell-off, they withdrew from the market of $30 billion within 24 hours About 213.3 billion yuan)

Yi Gang: at present, there is no timetable for its launch. The goal is to replace part of M0. It is worth noting that recently, it was reported in the market that "the Central Bank of China will issue digital currency within 80 days". At a news conference yesterday (September 24), Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, said that there is no timetable for the introction of digital currency

Yi Gang said:

I would like to say a few points about digital currency. First, the people's Bank of China has been studying digital currency since 2014. We have a digital currency Research Institute and a special team, and we have made positive progress. We combine the central bank's digital currency and electronic payment tools, so it is called a package of digital currency and electronic payment

Second, what are the goals of digital money and electronic payment in the future? The goal is to replace a part of M0, that is, to replace a part of cash. It does not mean to replace M1 or m2

Third, the future framework of our digital currency is a two-tier operation system of the central bank and commercial banks, which will not change the current money supply path and system, so as to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the market

Fourth, we will adhere to the centralized management, do not presuppose the technical route in the research and development work, we can choose the best in the market through fair competition, we can consider the blockchain technology, we can also adopt the new technology evolved from the existing electronic payment, fully mobilize the enthusiasm and creativity of the market, we have also set up a mechanism compatible with the incentive mechanism of market institutions. As for when you ask, we don't have a timetable. I think there will be a series of research, testing, pilot, assessment and risk prevention. Especially if digital currency is used across borders, there will be a series of regulatory requirements such as anti money laundering, anti terrorist financing, anti tax haven and "know your customer"

- for more data, please refer to the in depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of China's blockchain instry published by foresight Instry Research Institute