CFA analysis of bitcoin
Publish: 2021-04-01 05:06:59
1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
2. We usually link Ponzi fraud, pyramid schemes and asset bubbles with bitcoin, so we will analyze the past one by one. Three. Asset bubbles are strictly not fraulent, because they do not involve coercion or deception, but in order to make the discussions more complete, we also add them.
1. Is bitcoin a Ponzi scheme
what is Ponzi scheme? The funds invested by the latecomers are equally distributed to the former participants as their benefits. Do you need to hand over an extra sum of money to all current bitcoin holders when you first buy bitcoin? No, so bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme
2. Is bitcoin MLM
what is MLM? The funds invested by the latecomers are distributed to the previous participants as their benefits. When you buy bitcoin for the first time, do you need to hand over an extra sum of money to the person who brought you into the bitcoin world? No (bitcoin brings you in a lot of times), so bitcoin is not MLM
a typical mistake that people are prone to make is to judge whether bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme or pyramid scheme according to "previous bitcoin holders will benefit from the participation of later investors". This is obviously e to the unclear concept. Previous stock holders will also benefit from later investors. Is the stock market also a Ponzi scheme? The real difference between the above-mentioned scams and the formal investment market is whether the first participants and the latter are equal in the rules. The Ponzi scheme and pyramid scheme are unfavorable to the latter in the rules, and this is concealed, which is the deception. In the bitcoin market, no matter first come first served, everyone has to complete the transaction in the market according to their own judgment. No one can use the rules to profit others, which is exactly the same as the stock market< Is br />3. bitcoin an asset bubble?
what is asset bubble? The price of an asset is too high relative to its own value (all but resale). What determines the price? Supply and demand. There is a certain supply and the price soars, which means that there are too many buyers
take the tulip bubble that we often talk about for example. The most important value of tulips is its ornamental value. When five people buy a tulip, it's red. When 500 people buy it, it's colorful. Does it bring night light at night? Obviously not. The ornamental value of tulips will not increase because of the increase in the number of buyers. Therefore, soaring prices in the short term will lead to bubbles. After analyzing bubbles, let's look at bitcoin.
what is bitcoin? Value network. What are the characteristics of Internet? Scale effect
QQ with only 200 users, QQ with 2 million users, and QQ with 200 million users are obviously different in value. The same is true for bitcoin. Every additional bitcoin holder means an additional user who is willing to accept and able to pay for bitcoin. Accordingly, the value of the whole network increases a little bit. The scale effect of bitcoin determines that its value will naturally increase with the increase of the number of buyers. Therefore, it is untenable to assume that the inference of asset bubbles is based solely on price spiking. If we want to prove that bitcoin is an asset bubble, we must prove that the price change of bitcoin is even higher than that of its scale effect.
unfortunately, at least in the discussion of bitcoin bubble that I saw at present, I did not take this proposition into account. Although such proof is complex, it is not infeasible. For example, one idea I can think of is to take the valuation of Tencent / Facebook (Social Network), Alibaba / Amazon (trading network) and visa / PayPal (value network) in different user number periods as a reference to see if the growth rate of bitcoin's market value is too high compared with that of user number. Obviously, there is more than one way to prove, but the propositions to prove should be consistent
conclusion is obvious now that bitcoin is not a hoax, and even the accusation of bubbles lacks convincing grounds. When we discuss bitcoin, there are many misunderstandings, not only conceptual and logical, but also emotional. In the final analysis, it is because of the lack of understanding of bitcoin. However, e to the openness of the network, bitcoin has indeed been artificially played bad. Useful adoption
1. Is bitcoin a Ponzi scheme
what is Ponzi scheme? The funds invested by the latecomers are equally distributed to the former participants as their benefits. Do you need to hand over an extra sum of money to all current bitcoin holders when you first buy bitcoin? No, so bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme
2. Is bitcoin MLM
what is MLM? The funds invested by the latecomers are distributed to the previous participants as their benefits. When you buy bitcoin for the first time, do you need to hand over an extra sum of money to the person who brought you into the bitcoin world? No (bitcoin brings you in a lot of times), so bitcoin is not MLM
a typical mistake that people are prone to make is to judge whether bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme or pyramid scheme according to "previous bitcoin holders will benefit from the participation of later investors". This is obviously e to the unclear concept. Previous stock holders will also benefit from later investors. Is the stock market also a Ponzi scheme? The real difference between the above-mentioned scams and the formal investment market is whether the first participants and the latter are equal in the rules. The Ponzi scheme and pyramid scheme are unfavorable to the latter in the rules, and this is concealed, which is the deception. In the bitcoin market, no matter first come first served, everyone has to complete the transaction in the market according to their own judgment. No one can use the rules to profit others, which is exactly the same as the stock market< Is br />3. bitcoin an asset bubble?
what is asset bubble? The price of an asset is too high relative to its own value (all but resale). What determines the price? Supply and demand. There is a certain supply and the price soars, which means that there are too many buyers
take the tulip bubble that we often talk about for example. The most important value of tulips is its ornamental value. When five people buy a tulip, it's red. When 500 people buy it, it's colorful. Does it bring night light at night? Obviously not. The ornamental value of tulips will not increase because of the increase in the number of buyers. Therefore, soaring prices in the short term will lead to bubbles. After analyzing bubbles, let's look at bitcoin.
what is bitcoin? Value network. What are the characteristics of Internet? Scale effect
QQ with only 200 users, QQ with 2 million users, and QQ with 200 million users are obviously different in value. The same is true for bitcoin. Every additional bitcoin holder means an additional user who is willing to accept and able to pay for bitcoin. Accordingly, the value of the whole network increases a little bit. The scale effect of bitcoin determines that its value will naturally increase with the increase of the number of buyers. Therefore, it is untenable to assume that the inference of asset bubbles is based solely on price spiking. If we want to prove that bitcoin is an asset bubble, we must prove that the price change of bitcoin is even higher than that of its scale effect.
unfortunately, at least in the discussion of bitcoin bubble that I saw at present, I did not take this proposition into account. Although such proof is complex, it is not infeasible. For example, one idea I can think of is to take the valuation of Tencent / Facebook (Social Network), Alibaba / Amazon (trading network) and visa / PayPal (value network) in different user number periods as a reference to see if the growth rate of bitcoin's market value is too high compared with that of user number. Obviously, there is more than one way to prove, but the propositions to prove should be consistent
conclusion is obvious now that bitcoin is not a hoax, and even the accusation of bubbles lacks convincing grounds. When we discuss bitcoin, there are many misunderstandings, not only conceptual and logical, but also emotional. In the final analysis, it is because of the lack of understanding of bitcoin. However, e to the openness of the network, bitcoin has indeed been artificially played bad. Useful adoption
3. blockchain enabled content instry can take a look at Gao Xiaosong's previous speech at Tsinghua University, saying that blockchain + entertainment is a part of content instry. In my opinion, the main points are as follows:
1. Traceability technology can better protect right
2. Decentralization can break the monopoly of instry giants and no longer rely on platforms
3. The circulation of token will bring more value to indivials.
1. Traceability technology can better protect right
2. Decentralization can break the monopoly of instry giants and no longer rely on platforms
3. The circulation of token will bring more value to indivials.
4. At present, there is only one quick order on the fire coin. For the time being, the K-line shape is still more professional. There is still a big gap according to the technical indicators of the compass profession. The experts don't look at that thing.
5.
Significance:
1. Improve the welfare of all cats
2. Promote and improve the cat breeds approved by CFA
3
4. Improve the welfare of breeders and participating cats
CFA = the cat fans' Association
CFA is a non-profit organization registered in the United States, which was founded in early 1906. At the beginning of its establishment, CFA was a small organization. After years of development, CFA has become the organization with the largest number of registered purebred cats in the world. Every year, more than 400 cat exhibitions are held around the world, and more than 30 cat varieties are exhibited 
extended data:
related standards:
cats under the following conditions can be included in the cats database completely independent of the conventional system. Other cases will be considered separately
1. Recognized varieties, but do not meet the requirements of CFA registration
2. Recognized varieties, but no pedigree record
3. The recognized varieties come from organizations that are not recognized by CFA and can be exchanged and registered (ice, ACE, UFO, etc.)
4. Species not recognized by CFA but recognized by other associations, such as Australian mist, burmilas, etc
5. Varieties not recognized by CFA or other associations
6. Due to the variety or color found in the experience, it does not meet the CFA registration requirements
6. It's a joke. It's zero
7. 1. First, create a blank excel file, select cell A1, and click data from website. 2. Click go, click the yellow arrow next to the table you want to select, and then click Import
how to use Excel to import sobtc market data for bitcoin analysis
note: if you can't get the data, please check the security warning, click options, select enable this content, and click OK.
how to use Excel to import sobtc market data for bitcoin analysis
note: if you can't get the data, please check the security warning, click options, select enable this content, and click OK.
8. The attribution of bitcoin in network finance. It mainly evaluates and classifies money according to its characteristics,
9. My name is zdong199
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