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4. 1. The housing price gap between cities will be greater
the government has always wanted to achieve the balanced development of large, medium and small cities in the process of urbanization. However, e to the unbalanced allocation of public resources, development opportunities are more concentrated in the capital, municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capitals and special zones, so the "Matthew effect" in urban development will become increasingly obvious
in the past five years, China has formed six population growth centers, namely, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, as well as their surrounding cities“ "Three small" are Zhengzhou, Changsha and "Xiamen + Quanzhou". In terms of capital increment, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Cheng, Hangzhou and Nanjing have become star cities. In these places, the house price will be supported by people and money
2. The houses in big cities are becoming more and more capitalized
in the first tier cities and about 10 second tier cities, the properties in their central areas will become more and more capitalized, and the investors will be globalized and nationalized. In small and medium-sized cities, especially in cities with population loss, houses will return to the original properties of residence, office and commerce. For most Chinese, the most painful days of housing are over. After 95 of the city's majority, their youth will no longer be squeezed by housing. This is the biggest welfare that bubbles bring to us in real estate.
3. Small house types will be mechanized
in the central area of big cities, mechanized small house types will rise. The small apartment with an area of 20 square meters will evolve into a sophisticated instrument, which can be folded and opened to create rich life scenes. Developers, more and more like aircraft, cruise ship manufacturers
4. Counter urbanization is difficult to appear
many countries will appear counter urbanization after full urbanization. That is to say, city people go to the countryside to buy land and build villas. In the next 10 to 20 years, it will be very difficult for China to have such a situation. Because there are more Chinese people and less arable land, the land is owned by the state. In addition, the unbalanced distribution of public resources also makes people living in rural areas inconvenient and unsafe
5. It is difficult for big cities to "decentralize"
most cities in Europe and the United States have the trend of decentralization. At present, China's mega cities are all facing the pressure of traffic and environment. It has become a dream for many people to have a multi center city. But China's national condition is that the per capita cultivated land is small and the land is nationalized. The state is delimiting the boundaries of big cities to prevent unrestricted occupation of land. In addition, public resources can not be evenly distributed, so it is very difficult to go to the central area. On the contrary, the development of mobile Internet technology is making a new change in transportation: if there are 1.5 million taxis and special cars in a city like Beijing, there is no need for private cars. In this way, the traffic deadlock of the city will be opened, and the significance of decentralization will be small
6. Shops are faced with value revaluation
the biggest problem that shops are facing is that "bag consumption" (clothing, shoes and hats, home appliances, etc.) is increasingly replaced by online shopping, and only "experiential consumption" (catering, film, training, skating rink) is left to support the value of shops. Street shops in traditional commercial districts may be the most dangerous asset, because the unit price is too high. In addition, it is a complex of suburbs and new areas of cities with population loss“ It is more and more difficult to support three generations in one shop. The tragedy of "three generations support one shop" happens at any time
7. The prices of office buildings and residential buildings will be inverted for a long time
in the first tier cities, there has always been a phenomenon that the residential buildings and office buildings (including business apartments) of the same location and grade are more expensive. Why? There are three reasons: first, commercial property basically does not have a degree, can not be registered; Second, the commercial property land use life is short; Third, management fees, high water and electricity prices, generally can not pass gas
in the Internet age, home office, scattered office and suburban office are becoming fashionable, and the "just need color" of office buildings is insufficient. A person in the office, may only need 3 square meters is enough, but the demand for residential area is more. In the future, this phenomenon will continue, and the first choice for real estate investment is the residential buildings in the central area of big cities. Of course, if you want plenty of cash flow, invest in good office buildings
8. The real estate tax will be introced, but it has little impact on the market
e to the inflection point of the real estate in most cities, in order to stabilize the growth, the state is unlikely to introce a strict real estate tax. Real estate tax is the tax source of local governments. In the future, it will be adjusted to local conditions, with different tax rates and tax rection policies. First tier cities are bound to have the highest property tax rate. Overall, property tax has little effect on house prices
9. The family planning policy will be graally adjusted, but it has little impact on the property market
there is no suspense about the full liberalization of the second child policy, it is just a matter of time. In the future, there may be more relaxed population policies. Otherwise, China will face a severe population crisis (over aging, labor shortage) in decades. This has a long-term positive effect on the property market, but the effect may not be as great as expected, because the cost of childbearing is getting higher and higher, and the enthusiasm of young people in childbearing is declining, which is also the trend of the world. Sooner or later, the local government will announce that it will reward half a house for having one more child
10. House prices in big cities: rising
the urban pattern of China is totally different from that of the United States. We are stacked cities with high density and high concentration of population. Once this trend is formed, it is difficult to change. It is impossible for Chinese people to live a life of "driving for 10 minutes to buy a toothbrush". Therefore, it is difficult for housing prices to fall in cities with increasing population. In addition, the money supply of RMB has been on the high side for a long time, so house prices can only keep rising
in US dollar terms, house prices in China's big cities may fluctuate, repeat or even fall in the next few years. But in terms of RMB, the general trend of house prices is rising. In other words, a big factor is currency depreciation< In February 2014, I wrote an article entitled "2014: the year of developers' escape". The escape routes include: escape from the third and fourth tier cities, escape from the suburbs, escape from high debt, escape to diversification, escape to overseas. Now it seems that it has come true. In the next 10 years, this trend will continue, and a large number of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises will be acquired, transformed or died. In the end, there may be only about 100 large real estate enterprises left in China, and they are diversified. A large number of people will leave the instry for another way out
12 and the "interconnection and real estate" bubble will break the new wave of
e to the special status of real estate in the national economy, changes in house prices are easy to cause changes in the economic situation. Experts have obtained the above forecast results by analyzing the 10-year trend of house prices in Beijing, of course. Practice is the only standard to test the truth, and the authenticity remains to be tested by time. However, judging from the current situation of Beijing's housing prices, the trend of housing prices in 2016 should be dominated by the following behaviors. Perhaps the collapse of Beijing's housing prices in 2016 will create the best opportunity for house buyers who have been waiting for the property market for a long time.

5. If there is no leverage, it will be $100000