BTC wallet demand analysis

1.

Based on these two situations, price fluctuation seems to occur within 18 months after each halving. However, the data is still insufficient for proper analysis and price forecasting model

Will history repeat itself< p> It is important to note that in terms of the number of bitcoin holders, market value, regulations and the overall outlook for cryptocurrency, there are huge differences between 2012, 2016 and 2020. For example:

market value: November 2016 - & gt; $11 billion, December 2019 - $132 billion

daily trading volume: November 2016 - & gt; 84 million US dollars, December 2019 - 17 billion US dollars

e to the increased public awareness of bitcoin and the interest of institutional investors, the risk is higher this time. Although many other cryptocurrencies have been introced since 2016, BTC's dominant position is still 66.6%. As a result, the bitcoin miner is unlikely to switch to other coins, which means that halving may have a long-term impact on bitcoin prices

However, the main gain is that there is a certain correlation between the halving of bitcoin reward and the price fluctuation after the event. These supply changes happen every four years, and it's interesting to watch their impact on the price of the bitcoin

2. Bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas

3. The concept of bitcoin was first proposed by Nakamoto on November 1, 2008, and was officially born on January 3, 2009. According to the idea of Nakamoto, the open source software is designed and released, and the P2P network on it is constructed. Bitcoin is a virtual encrypted digital currency in the form of P2P. Point to point transmission means a decentralized payment system

unlike all currencies, bitcoin does not rely on specific currency institutions. It is generated by a large number of calculations based on specific algorithms. Bitcoin economy uses a distributed database composed of many nodes in the whole P2P network to confirm and record all transactions, and uses cryptography design to ensure the security of all aspects of currency circulation. The decentralized nature and algorithm of P2P can ensure that it is impossible to artificially manipulate the value of bitcoin through mass proction. The design based on cryptography can make bitcoin only be transferred or paid by the real owner. This also ensures the anonymity of money ownership and circulation transactions. The biggest difference between bitcoin and other virtual currencies is that the total amount of bitcoin is very limited and it has a strong scarcity

on December 17, 2017, bitcoin reached an all-time high of $19850. On July 27, 2020, bitcoin broke through the $10000 mark again [2]<

Chinese name
bitcoin
foreign name
bitcoin
type
encrypted digital currency
circulation platform
Network
founder
Nakamoto Cong

blockchain from Xiao to proficient
a total of 24 episodes
2196 heat
fast
navigation
founder

proction principle


monetary characteristics

monetary transaction
< br />
legal status

external evaluation
development history
What are blockchain and bitcoin< In 2008, the global financial crisis broke out. On November 1 of the same year, a person who called himself Satoshi Nakamoto published bitcoin white paper "bitcoin: a peer-to-peer e-cash system" on the P2P foundation website, stating his new idea of e-money bitcoin came out. On January 3, 2009, bitcoin Genesis block was born
there are three bitcoins in total
compared with legal tender, bitcoin does not have a centralized issuer, but is generated by the calculation of network nodes. Anyone can participate in the manufacture of bitcoin, and it can circulate all over the world. It can be bought and sold on any computer connected to the Internet. No matter where they are, anyone can dig, buy, sell or receive bitcoin, And in the transaction process, foreigners can not identify the user's identity information. On January 5, 2009, bitcoin, which is not controlled by the central bank and any financial institutions, was born. Bitcoin is a kind of digital currency, which is composed of a series of complex codes generated by computer. The new bitcoin is made by preset program
whenever bitcoin comes into the view of mainstream media, mainstream media always ask some mainstream economists to analyze bitcoin. Earlier, these analyses always focused on whether bitcoin was a scam. Now the analysis is always focused on whether bitcoin can become the mainstream currency in the future. The focus of the debate is often on the deflationary nature of bitcoin[ 7]
many bitcoin players are attracted by the fact that bitcoin can not be added at will. Contrary to the attitude of bitcoin players, economists have a polarized attitude towards the fixed amount of 21 million bitcoin
Keynesian economists believe that the government should actively regulate the total amount of money, and use the tightness of monetary policy to timely fuel or brake the economy. As a result, they believe that bitcoin's fixed aggregate currency sacrifices its adjustability, and worse still, it will inevitably lead to deflation, thereby harming the overall economy. Austrian economists hold the opposite view. They think that the less the government intervenes in money, the better. The deflation caused by the fixed amount of money is not a big deal, even a sign of social progress
bitcoin network generates new bitcoin through "mining". In essence, the so-called "mining" is to use computers to solve a complex mathematical problem to ensure the consistency of bitcoin network distributed accounting system. Bitcoin network will automatically adjust the difficulty of mathematical problems, so that the whole network will get a qualified answer about every 10 minutes. Then bitcoin network will generate a certain amount of bitcoin as block reward to reward the person who gets the answer[ 6]
in 2009, when bitcoin was born, block rewards were 50 bitcoins. Ten minutes after its birth, the first 50 bitcoins were generated, and the total amount of money at this time is 50. Then bitcoin grew at a rate of about 50 every 10 minutes. When the total amount reaches 10.5 million (50% of 21 million), the block reward will be halved to 25. When the total amount reaches 15.75 million (5.25 million new output, i.e. 50% of 1050), the block reward will be further halved to 12.5.

4. Bitcoin is a virtual currency with a total number of only 21 million. In 2014, the opening price of bitcoin was about 3562.41 yuan; On the second day of 2021, the bitstamp platform showed that the price of bitcoin broke the $30000 mark, that is, the price of a single bitcoin was about 220000 yuan, with a total market value of $560 billion. It can be seen that the market price of bitcoin fluctuates greatly, and the price of bitcoin is easily affected by news events, policies, market demand and other factors, so please invest carefully

warm tips: the above explanations are for reference only, without any suggestions. There are risks in entering the market, so investment should be cautious. Before making any investment, you should make sure that you fully understand the nature of the investment and the risks involved in the proct. After a detailed understanding and careful evaluation of the proct, you can judge whether to participate in the transaction

response time: March 11, 2021. Please refer to the official website of Ping An Bank for the latest business changes
[Ping An Bank I know] want to know more? Come and see "Ping An Bank I know" ~
https://b.pingan.com.cn/paim/iknow/index.html

5.

Let me tell you the answer first: No

or don't invest all of bitcoin. Let me give you a brief analysis

first of all, let's talk about 100000 yuan. If the 100000 yuan is a windfall, we suggest that you allin invest in bitcoin, which may be several times more when you take it out at the end of this year. There will be another windfall

if the 100000 yuan is a year-end bonus, you can consider investing half of it in blockchain and bitcoin

if the 100000 yuan deposit is your hard-earned money, you must be cautious in your investment, so first of all, you are not recommended to invest in blockchain

in fact, your question tells me two basic facts: 1. You are Xiao of blockchain / currency circle; 2. You have a little deposit and want to manage money, or you need to make some money

so from my point of view, I don't recommend you to buy bitcoin or make any other blockchain investment, because there is a saying that a person can't make money beyond his cognition, and the blockchain world is beyond your cognition for you, and the coin circle is basically an extension or part of the financial system. And the financial system is the most cruel and ruthless world. When you want to make money, you should also think that there are hundreds of thousands of people, millions of people who have the same ideas as you, so as to drive them into this bloody and merciless market. So you ask yourself, can you make sure you make money

first pour a basin of cold water on you, and then answer your questions seriously. Let's take a look at the historical trend of bitcoin

I feel optimistic that the recovery may come slowly, the Federal Reserve's move may be the beginning of financial release, and the capital market may recover slowly. As a small part of the financial market, the blockchain world may also recover

from the perspective of investment, bitcoin in the blockchain world is not only the genesis currency, but also the mainstream currency that accounts for the vast majority of the total market value at present. Therefore, if you really want to invest in the blockchain world, bitcoin is the best choice

however, please note that from the perspective of professional investment advice, risks should always be shared. Exclusive bitcoin will be taken off by a currency, and it will also fall miserably. So please consider holding other mainstream currencies, such as BoChang coin, which is known as "the last good heart of the blockchain", which is also the most powerful counter trend growth currency in the bear market of the currency circle. For a long time, when the mother of other currencies, including bitcoin, didn't know each other, BoChang was the only currency that was growing slightly, which was a miracle

another example is Ethereum. Although Ethereum's hard fork has been delayed for a long time, the arrival of Constantinople's hard fork upgrade will make Ethereum the most eye-catching star in a short time. At this time, the investment can be regarded as low-level market entry, and you can make a profit by waiting for high-level investment

finally, back to my answer, if you don't even know wave field, bitcoin, Constantinople hard fork and other words, how can you determine whether you can make a sum of money in the world of currency. So this in itself is a very high risk thing

a strange capital market will swallow up all your savings. Although some people get rich overnight, they are a few people after all. If you are sure to invest in the blockchain world, bitcoin can be invested. However, from the perspective of risk sharing, please buy some other mainstream currencies to minimize the risk. Finally, I wish you a happy investment and a big fortune in the year of the pig. Please be cautious in your investment

is to read more about the various currencies or project's white paper. I pay attention to my WeChat official account: "Nanjing block chain" can get thousands of white papers free of charge, so that you will have a better understanding of the chain world. p>

6. Bitcoin is a kind of cryptocurrency based on decentralization, using peer-to-peer network and consensus initiative, open source, and blockchain as the underlying technology. The concept of bitcoin was first proposed by Nakamoto on November 1, 2008, and was officially born on January 3, 2009. Unlike all currencies, bitcoin does not rely on a specific currency institution to issue. It is generated by a large number of calculations based on a specific algorithm. Bitcoin economy uses a distributed database composed of many nodes in the whole P2P network to confirm and record all transactions, and uses cryptography design to ensure the security of all aspects of money circulation. The decentralized nature and algorithm of P2P can ensure that it is impossible to artificially manipulate the value of bitcoin through mass proction. The design based on cryptography can make bitcoin only be transferred or paid by the real owner. This also ensures the anonymity of money ownership and circulation transactions. The biggest difference between bitcoin and other virtual currencies is that the total amount of bitcoin is very limited and it has a strong scarcity

warm tips:
1. The above explanations are for reference only, without any suggestions
2. Before investing, it is recommended that you first understand the risks existing in the project, and clearly understand the investors, investment institutions, chain activity and other information of the project, rather than blindly investing or mistakenly entering the capital market. Investment is risky, so we should be cautious when entering the market
response time: December 17, 2020. Please refer to the official website of Ping An Bank for the latest business changes
[Ping An Bank I know] want to know more? Come and see "Ping An Bank I know" ~
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7.

When you heard that many people who bought bitcoin got rich overnight, Japan also legislated to accept bitcoin, and then the major businesses supported bitcoin payment... You also have grass in your heart. Although I don't know what this coin is, it seems to make a lot of money. Do you want to buy it for two yuan

With a wave of his hand, Mr. Nakamoto, you guys need not worry. In order to make money... Oh no, in order to save the economic crisis, I have already considered this small matter carefully. In order to ensure the authenticity and quantity of each coin, each of us has a small notebook. On this magical notebook, you can see the birth of each coin, and everyone is a witness. At the same time, for the sake of safety, our notebook also has a very cool function, which is to have an invisible lock. You can only see it, but you can't change it. This kind of bitcoin has authenticity and authority

at the same time, you can rest assured that bitcoin will not be used in vain. I have found many "bricks" of mainstream economics, analyzed bitcoin and predicted that it will become the mainstream currency in the future. Now you can dig (Jian) currency without spending a cent, and you can wait for the currency to appreciate. Isn't it super good

this boasting, we listen to the bious, some people go to dig (Jian) money, some keep watching. At this time, Nakamoto took action. In 2014, he secretly united with American e-commerce giants such as eBay, airbnb and Uber, which began to accept bitcoin payment. Since then, the bitcoin market has really begun. Many people know that there is money coming in vain, and they also begin to join the ranks of coin digging. However, the number of people is still small, and there are not many coins g up

until 2017, when the blackmail virus incident occurred and the whole world suffered from large-scale network virus attacks, the poisoning unit had only two choices, either waiting for the computer to GG and the data disappeared, or paying about RMB 2069 bitcoin to unlock

this made bitcoin instantly become global famous. At the same time, all units had no choice but to buy coins. At this time, the brothers who had been digging for (Jian) coins for five or six years had a collective climax. There were so many coins. You want to buy them, right. In this way, the value of pure virtual bitcoin without real value soared to $2151 / piece

since then, as you have heard, XXX has accumulated more than n bitcoins, which have soared ten thousand times and become rich overnight

up to now, the creator of bitcoin, Nakamoto Tsung, has become a fan of identity, but bitcoin is still not accepted by most countries, including China. At present, bitcoin's high trading volume is also an illusion. Most of them are bad speculators. Through high-frequency trading, they create an illusion to attract investors' attention. This practice is equivalent to Taobao's swiping orders

for you who want to invest, you still need to clarify some things

1. Bitcoin is not restricted by law, and of course it is not protected. Once your trading platform is attacked by hackers, your currency will be lost, there will be no place to find it, and there will be no place to reason Many people go to the rooftop)

2. The fluctuation is very great. You only see a ten thousand fold increase, but not a half drop overnight

3, bitcoin has no issuer. In today's financial world, the currency of no issuer is worthless, and the bubble economy may collapse at any time. p>

the last word of advice: don't touch bitcoin as a rookie, or the old bird will speculate and run when they earn money, otherwise they will be sad

8. It's fake. Don't believe it. This is a Ponzi scheme on the Internet

9.

No, but it seems that it is difficult to explain in a few simple sentences. Let's study this ark article together

to expose the common myth of bitcoin

bitcoin has been established for more than 11 years and is striving to be widely recognized by institutions. Although constructive criticism is healthy, ark believes that some influential financial research institutions are refuting bitcoin based on outdated information, inconsistent arguments and flawed analysis

in view of Goldman Sachs' recent position on bitcoin, ark is reconsidering the most common misunderstanding, which has affected its acceptance. We look forward to participating in the health and ecational debate on bitcoin, as well as the important role we believe bitcoin should play in a diversified portfolio

According to ark, some influential financial research institutions are refuting bitcoin based on outdated information, inconsistent arguments and flawed analysis

statement: bitcoin is too volatile to serve as a store of value. Counterclaim
: the volatility of bitcoin highlights the credibility of its monetary policy

critics often point out that the volatility of bitcoin is the "value store transaction breaker". Why would anyone want to store the price of an asset in such drastic fluctuations in daily prices

we believe that these critics do not understand why bitcoin fluctuates and why its volatility may decrease

although the fluctuation of bitcoin distracts opponents from evaluating its role as a value storage tool, it actually highlights the credibility of its monetary policy. The impossible trinity is the dilemma of macroeconomic policy. As shown in the figure below, the dilemma assumes that when setting monetary targets, the decision-maker can satisfy two of the three goals instead of three, because the third goal is opposite to one of the first two goals

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd. in 2020, each side of the three difficulties triangle is mutually exclusive. For example, monetary authorities that choose a fixed exchange rate and allow free capital flow cannot control the growth of money supply. Similarly, the monetary authorities that choose fixed exchange rate and control currency can not accommodate the free flow of capital, and the monetary authorities that choose to accommodate the free flow of capital and control money supply can not determine the exchange rate

based on the three dilemmas, we can understand why volatility is the natural result of bitcoin monetary policy. Contrary to the modern central bank, it does not give priority to exchange rate stability. On the contrary, based on the quantitative rules of money, bitcoin limits the growth of money supply, allows the free flow of capital, and abandons the stable exchange rate. As a result, the price of bitcoin is a function of demand relative to its supply. Its volatility is not surprising

that is to say, over time, the volatility of bitcoin is decreasing, as shown below. With the increase of adoption rate, the marginal demand of bitcoin should account for a small proportion of its total network value, so as to rece the price fluctuation. If all other conditions are equal, for example, a new demand of $1 billion with a market value of $10 billion or a network value, the impact of the price of the bitcoin should be greater than a new demand of $1 billion with a network value of $100 billion. Importantly, we believe that volatility should not rule out the main reason why bitcoin is used as a store of value, mainly because it usually occurs at the same time as a sharp rise in price

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

for a long time, the purchasing power of bitcoin has been greatly improved. For example, since 2011, the price of bitcoin has grown at a compound rate of about 200% per year. Although significant changes have taken place in the year, since 2014, the price of bitcoin has appreciated year by year at its lowest price. It's been a good year

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: Coinmetrics

claims: bitcoin bubble. Counterclaim
: bitcoin is a competitor for the role of global currency

, some economists like Nouriel Roubini (Nouriel Roubini) believe that bitcoin will suddenly disappear when it is in the bubble. The line of reasoning is that bitcoin has no intrinsic value, and its appreciation depends on speculation, such as a hot potato or tulip game, and the willingness of the "bigger fool" to pay a higher price. They believe that bitcoin is not an investable asset

we believe that this statement eliminates the reason why bitcoin has accumulated value over time. Yes, bitcoin doesn't behave like a traditional investable asset[ 1] The value of equity is determined by discounting the expected cash flow. Given the high future cash flow based on growth and / or investment capital gains, the stock appreciates independently of the shareholder base

However, monetary assets such as bitcoin are unproctive, and their appreciation depends on how they effectively maintain or increase their value over time. In a sense, the value proposition is cyclical: monetary assets will appreciate with the demand of more people, and if it is an effective monetary asset, more people will evaluate it. In other words, "money is a common illusion" and "money is valuable because others think it is valuable"

The claim that the value of money depends entirely on the common illusion, however, indicates that the form of money is arbitrary. In fact, according to monetary history, the most common and sustainable currencies have the quality of maintaining their demand. For example, for thousands of years, because of its scarcity, substitutability and rability, economists have regarded gold as the most successful form of money

we think that bitcoin is usually called digital gold, which not only has many characteristics of gold, but also can improve them. Although bitcoin is rare and rable, it also has the characteristics of divisibility, verifiability, portability and transferability. A series of monetary features of bitcoin endow it with outstanding utility, which is likely to promote demand, and believes that bitcoin is suitable for the role of global digital currency even if it is not superior

we believe that as a suitable competitor for the first batch of global digital currencies, bitcoin should at least attract demand similar to gold. However, contrary to the claim that it is in a huge bubble, the net value (or market value) of bitcoin is less than 2% of gold. p>

prediction is limited in nature, so it cannot be relied on

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

statement: bitcoin will lose the value of fork and digital . Counterclaim
: the value of bitcoin cannot be copied only by software

in the digital field, goods are invisible and can be easily copied without destroying the original goods. Indivials can send word documents extensively by e-mail, for example, while retaining the original . Similarly, thousands of people can listen to a song simultaneously and repeatedly, which actually improves the value of the original work, especially when other songwriters imitate its unique voice

Bitcoin software is no exception. It's free and open source. Indivials can software, "create network branches" and create their own versions. However, skeptics still question how scarce bitcoin will be if it is based on open source software that can be copied indefinitely

first, the bifurcated bitcoin network will not create new bitcoin units, just as the expansion of Venezuela's Bolivar will not add dollars to the US monetary base. Instead, bifurcated bitcoin creates a new network with new units or coins. Although existing bitcoin holders have the right to use new coins, the forked network operates under a set of independent rules supported by a single stakeholder. Open source software does not dilute the money supply of the original network. It not only encourages cheap experiments and new networks, but also encourages new tokens and competitive markets

the scarcity of bitcoin is crucial to its network. Today, the number of bitcoins has reached 18 million, which is measured mathematically to 21 million, as shown below. Each bitcoin is linked to a wallet at a time and cannot be copied. Importantly, the only way to control user bitcoin is to have access to its associated private key

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

so, when it forks, what makes 21 million units in bitcoin network more valuable than 21 million units in bitcoin cash (BCH) or BTC? To equate the value of bitcoin cash with the value of bitcoin is equivalent to assuming that Facebook's source code can "fork" and automatically the value of its 2.6 billion users and 50000 employees. Their value comes from the network effects of bitcoin and Facebook, not just their existence

as far as bitcoin is concerned, we believe that network effects include not only the efforts to protect the hash rate of the blockchain, but also the liquidity of bitcoin and the infrastructure supporting its adoption and use. If it is dilutive, then bifurcations will have to share bitcoin's computing power, users and liquidity. As shown below, bitcoin cash and other bifurcations do not seem to derail bitcoin's network effects

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

claims that bitcoin is for criminals
counterclaim: bitcoin is anti censorship

critics still accuse bitcoin of allowing criminal activities because of its early evil activities. In its early years, bitcoin financed the Silk Road, an online black market platform known for selling illegal drugs

In our opinion, criticizing bitcoin for promoting criminal activities is one of its basic value propositions: censorship. As a neutral technology, bitcoin allows anyone to trade and cannot identify "criminals". It does not rely on centralized permissions to identify participants by name or IP address, but by encrypted digital key and address to distinguish participants, thus giving bitcoin powerful censorship ability. Anyone can trade anytime, anywhere as long as the participants pay the miners. Once secured, the transaction cannot be easily reversed

if criminal activities can be censored on the bitcoin network, then all activities can be censored. On the contrary, bitcoin allows anyone to exchange value globally and without permission. This is not to make it an inherent tool of crime. Phones, cars and the Internet are no less powerful than bitcoin in promoting crime

In other words, it seems that only a small part of bitcoin transactions are for illegal purposes. According to chainalysis, the number of bitcoin transactions related to illegal activities is still less than 1%, which may be a contribution to the transparency of bitcoin. Any user can view the complete history of transactions on the Internet, which shows that physical cash is a better means of illegal activities