Ground push BTC
Ethereum ushered in 2019 with a price of $130 and ended 2019 with a price of $130. In this year, Ethereum has gone through ups and downs, but in the end, it has returned to its starting point
(the price trend of bitcoin in 2015)
in that year, bitcoin finally went out of the way near the end of the year, and for most of the year, it performed mediocre. Although it rose and fell, its price remained at the same level
so, will Ethereum go out of the 2016 bitcoin market in 2020
these two years are similar. They are both "halved" years, two years after the last high point, and also expected to walk out of the soaring market
besides, Ethereum has the same illusion as bitcoin in 2015. Just as bitcoin experienced the failure of payment demand in those years, the ic0 project on Ethereum became a burden ring the bear market, and the project parties could sell the ETH that got from ic0 without any worry
like Nakamoto's bitcoin, v-god's vision of network scalability has been stuck for years rather than months, but in other areas, they are becoming more and more attractive
first, the external is blockchain, and the internal is defi
blockchain rose in 2014, but it rose at a faster speed in 2016, which is also a major reason why bitcoin can take off in 2017
the launch of Ethereum may also drive bitcoin, because initially you need to buy BTC to get eth
However, because Ethereum is Turing complete, it does not need a new blockchain network to realize a new invention. On the contrary, anything that can be coded can be coded with eth, including some primitive but fully automated banks
for example, one case is the stable currency Dai issued by the decentralized bank maker, which provides a demand interest rate of 10 times that of the bank (generally speaking, the bank's demand interest rate is about 3%)
it can be said that traditional banks lack advantages in this respect, because they have costs such as offices, employees who want rich bonus, and so on, which are obviously paid by bank users. And all of these are replaced by extremely cheap code on Ethereum
at present, this invention is still very young and has great development space, and the concept of DEI (decentralized Finance) has been generally proved to be feasible
2. From defi to technological revolution
some smart contracts are very complex. For example, to create Dai contracts, you need to put into eth to manage collateral, hedge, arbitrage, and create code price management strategies. Basically, you need to be your own bank
but from the perspective of end users, you don't have to care so much. All you need to know is: is the contract hacked? If not, how long has it been running
this is not a perfect way to measure safety, but relatively speaking, it is an effective way to quantify risk with technical level. You don't have to worry about managing collateral, you just need to exchange eth for Dai to earn savings
suppose you have a deposit of $100000, you think the stock price may be too high, or you think the dollar will strengthen, or you just want to have some quick and convenient financial savings
the last way is to put it in the survival period of the bank, but if you do, you will lose money because of inflation, because the bank interest rate in many places is very low, and the interest on the current savings account is basically 0%
but if you put it in a decentralized banking system such as Dai, you can get 4% deposit interest. All people have to do is buy eth first and then switch to Dai
let's imagine that if more people do this, it will indirectly push up the price of Ethereum. Therefore, it is wise to keep a part of eth, not all of them become Dai. Through this example, you may be able to imagine the development direction of Ethereum in the future
3. Will eth rise in 2020
if you regard Ethereum as the gateway to the new field of defi, then its value may be underestimated at present
just as bull sentiment is high, it will be divorced from reality, so will bear. Bears can often give a lot of reasons for the decline, but at present, in addition to some common reasons, we still don't know what negative aspects Ethereum will have in the future
Yes, the upgrade is always delayed, because it's too complicated, or for other reasons, you're not even sure whether it will be released in the end
Yes, like bitcoin developers, Ethereum developers will become arrogant because of their poor communication skills and contempt for "investors". Some of them have even left, thus slowing down the progress
Ethereum lacks a clear monetary policy - that said, Ethereum aims to rece inflation to near zero
ic0 projects are sold and sold. Many projects are fruitless, and the progress is delayed again and again. It is not too much to say that they are semi decentralized
in the bear market of the past two years, these shortcomings have surfaced, and there are more than these, but in the end, Ethereum still has a price of $130
this may mean that all the negative factors have been digested, and the market still believes, or even stubbornly believes, that it is worth at least $130
if there is no further decline, it probably means that it must rise, because ring the bear market, many potential positive factors and upgrading development have been ignored
Although defi seems to be only a field, it can slowly and graally automate more financial services through a large number of applications, and ultimately promote the development of banks and other financial entities
in addition, the delay of upgrade has been reflected in the price, although it is not clear whether other established factors have also been reflected in the price
for example, does the market really believe that the inflation rate of Ethereum will drop to near zero or even negative
has the potential demand for interest through POS been reflected in the price of digital assets? Once POS exits the market, what will happen to the locked eth? What's the new plan to convert eth 1. X (the name of the existing Ethereum platform protocol upgrade set) into POS fragmentation mechanism
we can list a lot of problems, but you know, Ethereum was declared dead earlier last year, but it has come to this day
therefore, it still has the opportunity to rise again, because it has achieved many goals, and there are more goals to achieve. At the same time, it has created a lot of new ideas (such as defi), some of which have been implemented, and some of which have just started
as for valuation, if we only talk about one aspect, such as replacing some banking services, even if there is only 20% chance, even if only 1% market share, it is still a thing worth trillions
as Darwin once said, "the species that can survive in the end are not the strongest or the smartest, but the ones that can adapt to change best."