BTC fluctuation

Based on these two situations, price fluctuation seems to occur within 18 months after each halving. However, the data is still insufficient for proper analysis and price forecasting model

market value: November 2016 - & gt; $11 billion, December 2019 - $132 billion

daily trading volume: November 2016 - & gt; 84 million US dollars, December 2019 - 17 billion US dollars

e to the increased public awareness of bitcoin and the interest of institutional investors, the risk is higher this time. Although many other cryptocurrencies have been introced since 2016, BTC's dominant position is still 66.6%. As a result, the bitcoin miner is unlikely to switch to other coins, which means that halving may have a long-term impact on bitcoin prices

After the end of February, on March 11, bitcoin reached a high of US $57000 again . At about 3 a.m. on March 11, the price of bitcoin surged to more than US $57000, up to US $57200, the highest in nearly two weeks, according to coinmarketcap

previously, at the end of February this year, the price of bitcoin broke through 57000 US dollars, once a record high, and even the price of indivial trading platforms has jumped to more than 58000 US dollars. However, in the following days, the price suffered a big plunge, falling to US $43000 at one time

extended data

reasons for the recent rise of bitcoin:

"this round of bitcoin bull market is the proct of high inflation expectations. Some time ago, when the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose rapidly, the market believed that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve would change faster than expected. It was predicted that the Federal Reserve would rece the purchase of bonds in advance, and even increase the interest rate earlier. In this context, bitcoin has plummeted. " The chief researcher of Ouyi okex Research Institute told the reporter of Securities Daily

"the recent rise of bitcoin is e to the fact that the market has stepped out of the haze of the previous period and the rising expectation of medium and long-term inflation." The above-mentioned researchers believe that it is mainly based on the following factors:

on the one hand, the Fed's statement on the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has dispelled the market's concern about the change of monetary policy, and the market's inflation expectations have been revised

on the other hand, through the US $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan, this economic stimulus plan will stimulate the growth of social demand, push up commodity prices, and raise global inflation expectations for a period of time

With the extension of time, the volatility is relatively small, but it is still increasing. The real volatility in one month was 64%, more than 10% higher than the decline of US $8000. The volatility in three months and one year was 58% and 71% respectively

the real fluctuation of 10 days last appeared in the long-term indicators, between January 14 and January 17. Bitcoin rose more than 10% in this round, driven by an unlikely "safe haven" argument

looking ahead, the implied volatility (IV) based on the pricing of bitcoin option contracts has also increased, but in terms of the larger trend, the range is not large. Bitcoin's three-month implied volatility was 3.5%, the highest in the past three weeks