BTC instability
Publish: 2021-04-05 11:41:04
1. To be honest, I may come into contact with bitcoin later than many of my peers, but I'm one of the quickest people to make a decision to join the instry. I learned from the news that Jet Li's one foundation was grateful to the enthusiasts who donated bitcoin. After less than ten minutes of thinking, I immediately decided to put down 90% of the projects I had completed and devote myself to this instry with incomparable prospects. I am a technology controller. Although I am not well-known in the Internet instry, I have operated no less than 10 it projects, and have cooperated with or established 7 companies. Among them, there are also successes and failures. The only instry that has not been involved is group buying, because I thought from the beginning that group buying deviated from its original appearance and would not be a very promising instry. But after learning about bitcoin, I feel that I have found a window, a window to the palace of ideals, a way to change the world. Today, I still insist on my choice, but the real use value of bitcoin in China is rarely reflected except for its speculative property. After multi-party analysis, I think the short-term downward trend is irreversible. Let's list the following factors that cause the price of bitcoin to fall:
first, the excessively free market - the copper price killer
bitcoin is born for freedom and lives for freedom, which has created a group of bitcoin fans who are crazy about pursuing freedom. The decentralization of the bitcoin exchange has been rampant for a time. The current situation of no supervision of the bitcoin exchange is obvious to all, and it can not be solved by itself, such as the forever anonymous dark village, the disorderly competition of mining machinery, etc. these important factors that are often ignored by people are also important drivers of the price drop
just think of the capitalist social system in the early days. People had great expectations and perseverance. They could sacrifice their lives for freedom and cut the rope on puppets at all costs. During the transition from feudal socialism to capitalism, people were like holding on to the water for several generations, suddenly came out to breathe fresh air, and no one was allowed to press themselves into the water again, The result is a social system of excessive freedom. The result of excessive freedom is that once someone obtains certain resources and social advantages, he can quickly devour everything around him like a black hole, forming a monopoly and giving birth to an oligarchy. They don't care about other people's lives, just like gladiators. If you lose, you have to bear all the consequences; If I win, I can enjoy some honor. But after all, oligarchs are a minority. Society is made up of thousands of ordinary people, so the system made up of people must be unstable and unreasonable. Therefore, modern capitalist society has learned to compromise. After learning from many advantages of capitalist society at that time, it is found that there are anti-monopoly laws, various anti-commercial bribery and other daily laws for proper supervision, In order to effectively delay the outbreak cycle of the financial crisis
the reason why so many words are used to describe capitalist society is that bitcoin has too many similarities with it. A brand new financial system does not depend on specific institutions or indivials, but also depends on all participants. With it, we can eliminate all external influences and keep our wallets. It's a great idea, but what about the reality? Holding a large amount of bitcoin, amzhuang can control the price of bitcoin. In the capital market, 1 billion yuan is only a very small amount. For the bitcoin market, it is enough to control the price rise and fall of any exchange, back and forth volatility, commonly known as "fleece". Easier said than done, as like as two peas in the market, you will be able to control the bitcoin in your hands. But you have to be in the market. For these makers, they can benefit from the ups and downs, because in the trend of the rising market, they will increase ring each shock period, and fall more every time the market falls. At the top of the pyramid, there are always only a few people
after more than a year of communication with players in the instry, we found that those who are still left behind are either deeply covered or persistent believers. Even if they are covered, only a few of them are entities. Most of the left behind are pure it houses, and they blush when they meet. Most of them have no financial experience, even few of them have speculated in stocks, so they are in shock, It's certain that Xiaosan will be injured< Another important factor is that, like stocks, the amount of cash in circulation is far less than the total value. Although several exchanges have not announced the amount of bitcoin and the total amount of RMB assets, it can be concluded from the data of mtgox's bankruptcy that the amount of cash announced by mtgox is US $40 million, Bitcoin is worth US $450 million, reaching a staggering 1:11. According to my preliminary understanding, the general comparison of domestic trading platforms is between 1:3 and 1:6, which is slightly better than mtfox, but it is also enough to illustrate the problem. Once the bear market comes, the power of shorting is far greater than that of long
although the stock market did not rise sharply last year, many people did profit from the stock market and attracted many of the few users who swayed between the stock market and bitcoin. Many of the professional investment users and deep-seated users who benefited from bitcoin also left the bitcoin instry for various reasons. The big reason is that for bitcoin, They think that in addition to speculation, it is a game played by technical talents. Although this is a misunderstanding, let's think about it from another perspective. If you are an investor outside the IT instry and face the world's largest trading platform, you will go bankrupt if it goes bankrupt. If bitcoin is stolen, it will be stolen without supervision and responsibility. What would you think? Therefore, the reason for today's situation is that the number of bitcoin has not decreased, but the capital is decreasing. Although there are many foreign advantages ring this period, the domestic situation has been declining. This is an indisputable fact
with the decrease of funds, long has lost enough momentum. The reason why there is no sharp decline is that there are still a number of bitcoin loyalists. Some of them have been engaged in bitcoin for several consecutive years, and almost every year they have to experience a similar slump. Therefore, they still firmly believe that this year is just a repetition of the market rules of previous years, and the final price will rise; Of course, I personally believe that in the long run, the trend of bitcoin will go up, but is it half a year or three to five years? I'm really not sure, because the biggest constant in the world is change. As the saying goes, the flowers are similar year by year, but the people are different year by year. The past experience may not be applicable to the present< Third, domestic policy - gold price killer
I don't know if the Americans have understood that it was not Japan, the United States, Europe, but China that decided the price of bitcoin in 2013. Made in China used to be a headache for foreigners. Now, they also realize the power of China's speculation. China's real estate speculators are like locusts everywhere they go. At present, China's speculators are also rapidly overdrawn the growth value of bitcoin. China, which has 80% of the world's trading volume, explicitly forbids the value of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, so it has no real value in China except for speculation
I believe that the world's understanding of the power of Chinese speculators in bitcoin began with the documents of five ministries and commissions, because before that, almost no organization participated in the international bitcoin conference. After that, many foreign media swarmed in, professional and unprofessional media came. This time, although the documents on April 15 have not been confirmed, the financial times interviewed bitcoin in advance, which shows that they recognize the power of Chinese speculators
why is an Internet proct that started in foreign countries so influenced by China's policies? This is not its main application place, which just reflects that the price of bitcoin is seriously out of its actual value line, artificially pushed up and overdrawn its value. In my opinion, without CCTV's report and China's participation, it would have been good for bitcoin to have a price of more than 1000 last year. It was also e to excessive attention, which created the fastest five ministerial documents in history< 4. Crazy miner - the ultimate price killer
the computing power of bitcoin miner has increased from 1p at the end of last year to more than 30p now. In less than five months, the price of bitcoin miner has dropped from 6000 to 2700 today. In other words, the number of miner has increased dozens of times, from CPU to motherboard, power supply, power supply, etc The chassis and processing costs are all paid in RMB. Just imagine how much cash flow the mining machine has taken from the whole bitcoin ecological chain. Once the cash flows into the hands of TSMC, motherboard factory and others, it will never be kept back. This is also the result of disorderly competition, once profitable, the number will never end! It is said that Shenzhen proces 90% of the world's computing power of mining machines, and each time the chips are streamed, the chips are less than 3.5 million, more than 20.3 million, not to mention the whole machine. A mining machine manufacturer I know in Shenzhen club said that he sold 1000 USB mining machines a minute, which shows the madness
to sum up, all aspects have exerted pressure on cash flow, so the continuous decline of bitcoin in the short term is caused by many reasons. Even without the 4.15 document, I believe a continuous decline process will be formed. As for the bottom, it depends on the belief of those who still hold fast to it and when the crazy mining machine will not continue, And the actual application of bitcoin in foreign countries
those who played with stocks in 2008 may find that bitcoin shares a striking resemblance to the price trend of stocks. If bitcoin goes up from 2000 to 5300, any good news, even an additional issue, will make stocks soar all the time. After that, although the stock surged to the highest point, the downward trend was like "defeat like a mountain". Any bad news would cause a decline. Coupled with the excessive issuance of new shares and serious overdraft of market cash, the a share once fell back to about 1600 points. Although it rebounded to more than 3000 points, it would still jump to about 2000 points. After several years of shock, it did not improve
bitcoin plate is small and easy to rise and fall. However, if the retail investors are excessively injured, bitcoin's loyalty can only be powerless to let bitcoin rise. The false rise of the makers will face a lot of market capital pressure and can only follow the trend
at present, there are several companies in the whole instry that can support short selling, such as fire coin, China bitcoin and okcoin, which also aggravates the dection process
of course, I am still very optimistic about the long-term development of bitcoin, but I really can't see how to break the current deadlock. The purpose of this article is to provide some personal opinions for the majority of small businesses. Maybe you are more in-depth and complete than I think, but finance is nothing more than that
first, the excessively free market - the copper price killer
bitcoin is born for freedom and lives for freedom, which has created a group of bitcoin fans who are crazy about pursuing freedom. The decentralization of the bitcoin exchange has been rampant for a time. The current situation of no supervision of the bitcoin exchange is obvious to all, and it can not be solved by itself, such as the forever anonymous dark village, the disorderly competition of mining machinery, etc. these important factors that are often ignored by people are also important drivers of the price drop
just think of the capitalist social system in the early days. People had great expectations and perseverance. They could sacrifice their lives for freedom and cut the rope on puppets at all costs. During the transition from feudal socialism to capitalism, people were like holding on to the water for several generations, suddenly came out to breathe fresh air, and no one was allowed to press themselves into the water again, The result is a social system of excessive freedom. The result of excessive freedom is that once someone obtains certain resources and social advantages, he can quickly devour everything around him like a black hole, forming a monopoly and giving birth to an oligarchy. They don't care about other people's lives, just like gladiators. If you lose, you have to bear all the consequences; If I win, I can enjoy some honor. But after all, oligarchs are a minority. Society is made up of thousands of ordinary people, so the system made up of people must be unstable and unreasonable. Therefore, modern capitalist society has learned to compromise. After learning from many advantages of capitalist society at that time, it is found that there are anti-monopoly laws, various anti-commercial bribery and other daily laws for proper supervision, In order to effectively delay the outbreak cycle of the financial crisis
the reason why so many words are used to describe capitalist society is that bitcoin has too many similarities with it. A brand new financial system does not depend on specific institutions or indivials, but also depends on all participants. With it, we can eliminate all external influences and keep our wallets. It's a great idea, but what about the reality? Holding a large amount of bitcoin, amzhuang can control the price of bitcoin. In the capital market, 1 billion yuan is only a very small amount. For the bitcoin market, it is enough to control the price rise and fall of any exchange, back and forth volatility, commonly known as "fleece". Easier said than done, as like as two peas in the market, you will be able to control the bitcoin in your hands. But you have to be in the market. For these makers, they can benefit from the ups and downs, because in the trend of the rising market, they will increase ring each shock period, and fall more every time the market falls. At the top of the pyramid, there are always only a few people
after more than a year of communication with players in the instry, we found that those who are still left behind are either deeply covered or persistent believers. Even if they are covered, only a few of them are entities. Most of the left behind are pure it houses, and they blush when they meet. Most of them have no financial experience, even few of them have speculated in stocks, so they are in shock, It's certain that Xiaosan will be injured< Another important factor is that, like stocks, the amount of cash in circulation is far less than the total value. Although several exchanges have not announced the amount of bitcoin and the total amount of RMB assets, it can be concluded from the data of mtgox's bankruptcy that the amount of cash announced by mtgox is US $40 million, Bitcoin is worth US $450 million, reaching a staggering 1:11. According to my preliminary understanding, the general comparison of domestic trading platforms is between 1:3 and 1:6, which is slightly better than mtfox, but it is also enough to illustrate the problem. Once the bear market comes, the power of shorting is far greater than that of long
although the stock market did not rise sharply last year, many people did profit from the stock market and attracted many of the few users who swayed between the stock market and bitcoin. Many of the professional investment users and deep-seated users who benefited from bitcoin also left the bitcoin instry for various reasons. The big reason is that for bitcoin, They think that in addition to speculation, it is a game played by technical talents. Although this is a misunderstanding, let's think about it from another perspective. If you are an investor outside the IT instry and face the world's largest trading platform, you will go bankrupt if it goes bankrupt. If bitcoin is stolen, it will be stolen without supervision and responsibility. What would you think? Therefore, the reason for today's situation is that the number of bitcoin has not decreased, but the capital is decreasing. Although there are many foreign advantages ring this period, the domestic situation has been declining. This is an indisputable fact
with the decrease of funds, long has lost enough momentum. The reason why there is no sharp decline is that there are still a number of bitcoin loyalists. Some of them have been engaged in bitcoin for several consecutive years, and almost every year they have to experience a similar slump. Therefore, they still firmly believe that this year is just a repetition of the market rules of previous years, and the final price will rise; Of course, I personally believe that in the long run, the trend of bitcoin will go up, but is it half a year or three to five years? I'm really not sure, because the biggest constant in the world is change. As the saying goes, the flowers are similar year by year, but the people are different year by year. The past experience may not be applicable to the present< Third, domestic policy - gold price killer
I don't know if the Americans have understood that it was not Japan, the United States, Europe, but China that decided the price of bitcoin in 2013. Made in China used to be a headache for foreigners. Now, they also realize the power of China's speculation. China's real estate speculators are like locusts everywhere they go. At present, China's speculators are also rapidly overdrawn the growth value of bitcoin. China, which has 80% of the world's trading volume, explicitly forbids the value of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, so it has no real value in China except for speculation
I believe that the world's understanding of the power of Chinese speculators in bitcoin began with the documents of five ministries and commissions, because before that, almost no organization participated in the international bitcoin conference. After that, many foreign media swarmed in, professional and unprofessional media came. This time, although the documents on April 15 have not been confirmed, the financial times interviewed bitcoin in advance, which shows that they recognize the power of Chinese speculators
why is an Internet proct that started in foreign countries so influenced by China's policies? This is not its main application place, which just reflects that the price of bitcoin is seriously out of its actual value line, artificially pushed up and overdrawn its value. In my opinion, without CCTV's report and China's participation, it would have been good for bitcoin to have a price of more than 1000 last year. It was also e to excessive attention, which created the fastest five ministerial documents in history< 4. Crazy miner - the ultimate price killer
the computing power of bitcoin miner has increased from 1p at the end of last year to more than 30p now. In less than five months, the price of bitcoin miner has dropped from 6000 to 2700 today. In other words, the number of miner has increased dozens of times, from CPU to motherboard, power supply, power supply, etc The chassis and processing costs are all paid in RMB. Just imagine how much cash flow the mining machine has taken from the whole bitcoin ecological chain. Once the cash flows into the hands of TSMC, motherboard factory and others, it will never be kept back. This is also the result of disorderly competition, once profitable, the number will never end! It is said that Shenzhen proces 90% of the world's computing power of mining machines, and each time the chips are streamed, the chips are less than 3.5 million, more than 20.3 million, not to mention the whole machine. A mining machine manufacturer I know in Shenzhen club said that he sold 1000 USB mining machines a minute, which shows the madness
to sum up, all aspects have exerted pressure on cash flow, so the continuous decline of bitcoin in the short term is caused by many reasons. Even without the 4.15 document, I believe a continuous decline process will be formed. As for the bottom, it depends on the belief of those who still hold fast to it and when the crazy mining machine will not continue, And the actual application of bitcoin in foreign countries
those who played with stocks in 2008 may find that bitcoin shares a striking resemblance to the price trend of stocks. If bitcoin goes up from 2000 to 5300, any good news, even an additional issue, will make stocks soar all the time. After that, although the stock surged to the highest point, the downward trend was like "defeat like a mountain". Any bad news would cause a decline. Coupled with the excessive issuance of new shares and serious overdraft of market cash, the a share once fell back to about 1600 points. Although it rebounded to more than 3000 points, it would still jump to about 2000 points. After several years of shock, it did not improve
bitcoin plate is small and easy to rise and fall. However, if the retail investors are excessively injured, bitcoin's loyalty can only be powerless to let bitcoin rise. The false rise of the makers will face a lot of market capital pressure and can only follow the trend
at present, there are several companies in the whole instry that can support short selling, such as fire coin, China bitcoin and okcoin, which also aggravates the dection process
of course, I am still very optimistic about the long-term development of bitcoin, but I really can't see how to break the current deadlock. The purpose of this article is to provide some personal opinions for the majority of small businesses. Maybe you are more in-depth and complete than I think, but finance is nothing more than that
2. Now we have to hurry to buy bitcoin. The third half of bitcoin has just been completed, and the U.S. economy is not good. Bitcoin is bound to rise. I have been making a fixed investment in okex myself. I think it's good. You can find out about it in the next app. Please accept my answer. Thank you very much. If there is any need, you can ask, thank you!
3.
Bitcoin as a virtual currency, has been a lot of people's attention and recognition, and more and more people want to get more income through certain investment, and also very much recognize the development of bitcoin. Many people want to put some of their money into bitcoin, and they think bitcoin can have a better future, and more and more people want to have a better future. Therefore, more and more people think that investing in bitcoin can have a better development
But actually we all know that investment has certain risks, and if we can't grasp this degree well, we are likely to make serious losses. Especially bitcoin. Our understanding of bitcoin is not so deep, and we may not have a comprehensive and in-depth understanding of bitcoin. If we invest in bitcoin casually, we may have a bad result, and we may have a worse behavior. Bitcoin has exceeded US $52000. Why do you still suggest that we do not invest blindly? I think there are three main reasons:first, bitcoin is still unstable
in fact, as a virtual currency, since bitcoin exists in the market, it means that bitcoin will still have some instability. If you invest in bitcoin casually, it is likely to lead to a bad result and also be affected by the instability of bitcoin. This may cause us to have greater risks, which is actually unfavorable for us, and we can not allow ourselves to have a more casual behavior{ RRRRR}
that's my opinion. Do you have any ideas? Welcome to leave a message in the comments area
4. It's very common
for all the things traded, some people buy and some people sell, the number of people who buy will rise and the number of people who sell will fall
and the person who bought one minute before may want to sell one minute later, and the person who sold one minute before may want to buy one minute later
because who among the holders can accurately predict whether it will rise or fall
if you can predict that it will keep falling, why do you buy it? In fact, many retail investors are reluctant to cut their losses when they fall below the cost price. It is very common for them to drag on for two or three years
you should not think that you are smarter than others, even if you are willing to cut the meat, if you rebound immediately after cutting the meat, you will be slapped on both sides< In a word, no one can predict what will happen in two years.
for all the things traded, some people buy and some people sell, the number of people who buy will rise and the number of people who sell will fall
and the person who bought one minute before may want to sell one minute later, and the person who sold one minute before may want to buy one minute later
because who among the holders can accurately predict whether it will rise or fall
if you can predict that it will keep falling, why do you buy it? In fact, many retail investors are reluctant to cut their losses when they fall below the cost price. It is very common for them to drag on for two or three years
you should not think that you are smarter than others, even if you are willing to cut the meat, if you rebound immediately after cutting the meat, you will be slapped on both sides< In a word, no one can predict what will happen in two years.
5.
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bitcoin is bought and sold on specialized trading platforms, such as gate platform, where the web page links to the old platform, and now it's moved overseas, because you know, pure Chinese, it's easy to watch
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transaction steps: in the platform, you can use Xbox to spend RMB to buy usdt. Usdt is equivalent to a trading medium, and bitcoin trading uses intermediate currency globally
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when you want to sell, sell bitcoin to get usdt, and then sell usdt to get RMB
if it helps you, please remember to adopt it, thank you
6. I feel that the impact of the epidemic, bitcoin in the unstable surge, this is only a brief bubble phenomenon, following the outbreak of stability, the price of bitcoin should also stabilize.
7.
bitcoin has dived into US $8000 in the day. The main reason why bitcoin is so powerful is that its price is high, its valuation is high, and investors make huge profits. Bitcoin itself does not generate profits, but its total market value is several trillion. Any rash will make investors realize their profits
with the continuous improvement of science and technology, the continuous development of the Internet and the emergence of emerging instries, bitcoin has gained more development in our times. As an emerging instry, bitcoin has attracted many people's attention, and its price has increased tens of thousands of times in a few years, which is the performance of wealth legend. Bitcoin's price is high and its valuation is also very high. Investors have made huge profits in the short term. Bitcoin itself does not proce profits, which leads to the deviation of valuation. The total market value is as high as several trillion. This shows that the chips have been loosened. This is also the reason why bitcoin's price is so strong
3. Can bitcoin the bottom
bitcoin's intra day plunge of US $8000 is indeed very volatile, but for ordinary investors, I do not recommend bottom hunting, because bitcoin is a high-yield and high-risk investment variety, and the fluctuation range is as high as RMB 45000 a day. In this way, not all legal persons can bear the fluctuation. There is no sign of stabilization for this position, so bottom hunting bitcoin is not recommended, In particular, general investors are not recommended to participate, so the risk is relatively high
8. As an electronic currency, China and most other countries in the world are carrying out restrictive regulation now. Not every digital currency can be used like bitcoin. It is still unknown whether some digital currencies can be used in real life. These digital currencies include reborn, iota, NEM and Neo. At present, without the support of Chinese laws and regulations, online transactions of any electronic currency are not allowed. If most of the existing trading platform servers are abroad, and the fund trustee is also abroad, the risk can be imagined. However, there are still prospects for the future development of this kind of electronic currency investment, as the development of blockchain technology, In the near future, China will make great achievements with the supervision of electronic money market. However, in the current situation and risk assessment, the transaction risk of e-money is a matter of high probability.
9. In fact, I think you can rest assured that bitcoin is similar to gold in quantity. But the value of bitcoin comes from the mathematical framework, P2P network characteristics, and people's confidence. Therefore, compared with gold, it has higher instability. After all, gold has existed as currency since ancient times. The current development trend of bitcoin is not very clear, and many countries hold a wait-and-see attitude. So bitcoin is going to be a free currency in the world. At present, it seems that there are still some barriers<
as for deflation, you don't have to worry about it.
1) there are about 12 million bitcoins now, and the total number is expected to reach 21 million by 2040. There are many small units of measurement under bitcoin. If bitcoin becomes the world currency, the unit of bitcoin will not be one bitcoin, but may be one bitfen, one millibit. These are smaller units
so we can't treat bitcoin as fixed, it's just a number that can be divided. So it won't create a currency situation
2) the total amount of bitcoin is limited, even if it has reached 21 million, and the total value of the currency in circulation in the world now, I think, may be several hundred trillion! Think about it. If it's going to become currency, what's the value of a bitcoin. If you compare it with gold, you will know
e to the characteristics of bitcoin, I think it will become a speculative proct like stocks, silver and real estate
it is not entirely said that bitcoin has no real possibility, but from the perspective of financial development trend, it will develop in this direction in the future. After the value of bitcoin stabilizes, I think there will still be many people and businesses willing to engage in this instry.
as for deflation, you don't have to worry about it.
1) there are about 12 million bitcoins now, and the total number is expected to reach 21 million by 2040. There are many small units of measurement under bitcoin. If bitcoin becomes the world currency, the unit of bitcoin will not be one bitcoin, but may be one bitfen, one millibit. These are smaller units
so we can't treat bitcoin as fixed, it's just a number that can be divided. So it won't create a currency situation
2) the total amount of bitcoin is limited, even if it has reached 21 million, and the total value of the currency in circulation in the world now, I think, may be several hundred trillion! Think about it. If it's going to become currency, what's the value of a bitcoin. If you compare it with gold, you will know
e to the characteristics of bitcoin, I think it will become a speculative proct like stocks, silver and real estate
it is not entirely said that bitcoin has no real possibility, but from the perspective of financial development trend, it will develop in this direction in the future. After the value of bitcoin stabilizes, I think there will still be many people and businesses willing to engage in this instry.
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