BTC Bear City

1.

By midday, bitcoin had fallen to around $10700. Bitcoin's previous attempt to break through $12000 failed, and yesterday's downward trend continues to this day. As a result, the cryptocurrency market fell, with 90 of the top 100 currencies falling

in the past 24 hours, according to the okex platform, the net outflow amount of bitcoin reached 638 million yuan, and according to the currency security data, the net outflow amount of bitcoin reached 152 million yuan. Although the capital outflow in the past 24 hours is relatively large, it has decreased compared with yesterday's capital outflow, and bitcoin has hit the bottom of US $10600 for many times in the past 24 hours. However, in terms of trading volume, there is strong support in this position. After that, we still need to observe the withdrawal of funds, so as to confirm whether the market goes up or continues to fall below the down. In fact, the so-called "bear market" in the currency circle is more popular than the "three o'clock community" before. In my opinion, I basically dare to assert that there are makers in the currency circle who have successfully harvested a batch of "leeks" by using some financial means or big men. This view may sound like "conspiracy theory" to many people, But I have to admit that speculators are everywhere in the coin circle. Zhu Xiaohu's warning that "I hope you don't stay in history because you reap leeks to earn money with blood" also has a certain basis in my opinion

the craziest time was in December 2017, when bitcoin reached more than 100000 yuan. Before that, people who invested in bitcoin could make a fortune overnight. At the end of 2017, the price dropped to below 40000 yuan, and there was also a correction in 2018

there are two ways to invest in bitcoin

one is to buy bitcoin directly and wait for it to rise, that is, simply buy it low and sell it high. Judging from the historical data and the popularity of blockchain, there is still a lot of room for bitcoin to rise, but the cost of this investment method is relatively low, and the price of bitcoin fluctuates too much, so although the income of buying bitcoin directly is high, But the risk is also great

the other is to "dig" bitcoin with professional equipment. The total amount of bitcoin is 21 million. mining is the only way to get bitcoin, that is, through a professional computer, which is called mining machine in the instry, to get bitcoin through a lot of calculation, and then sell bitcoin to get income. At present, the price of a mining machine is about 10000, Another problem is the cost of electricity. This kind of equipment consumes a lot of power and needs 24-hour uninterrupted operation, so after a long time, the electricity cost is not a small cost

at present, there are many people engaged in mining, mostly in the form of mines, finding cheap electricity for centralized mining to rece costs

every day will generate income, the highest is more than 200. In addition, the fluctuation of the currency price has little impact on the mining, because the bitcoin can be sold at any price. Even if the price of the coin is low, it can be sold after the price rises. Therefore, the investment income is relatively stable, the risk is relatively low, and the current machine price is also low, There is no threshold for investment, so it is a good opportunity for investment

According to the current market, mining income is not high, and even some retail investors have caused losses, but it is difficult to lose money in large-scale professional mines. Mining requires the cost of machinery and equipment and the cost of electricity price. With the decline of bitcoin market, the cost of machinery has been reced again and again, and the electricity price in large mines is also extremely low. Therefore, the income of mining in large mines will be higher than the cost for a long time in the future, and the income will be higher after the price of bitcoin rises

compared with self built mines, it has certain advantages to invest in mining machinery trusteeship business. Firstly, the time cost is saved to a certain extent, and the mining business can be started immediately. Secondly, unnecessary expenses, such as labor cost, are saved. Since the custody business concentrates the mining machines of multiple investors in one mine, the labor cost is shared by all investors. Finally, there are cheaper electricity prices. The ultimate goal of hosting enterprises to carry out mining machinery hosting business is to make profits. If they can not get lower than the normal electricity price on the market, it is difficult for hosting enterprises to make profits. Of course, the electricity price given to investors will also be lower than the normal electricity price on the market. Another important advantage is that some trusteeship enterprises are able to cash the virtual currency g up by investors' mining machines directly, which also relieves some investors from the worry that they can't cash the virtual currency

is mining profitable or not? There are several factors affecting the mining income: first, the currency price. The higher the currency price, the more profitable the mining. The second is the difficulty. The slower the difficulty rises, the more profitable the mining will be. The lower the cost, the more profitable the mining. Of course, the cost here refers to the purchasing cost and operating cost of computing power, including labor, network, construction, electricity and so on. The lower the cost, the better. Mining needs to deal with the risk of currency price plummeting, mining difficulty soaring, and mining costs rising. At present, the risk of mining currency speculation is much smaller

now the currency price continues to fall. Some people say that it's better to buy money directly than to buy a miner. In fact, it's not the case. Buying money must bear the risk of currency price falling, and the risk and income coexist, while buying a miner is to "protect the income from drought and flood" and keep the value of money rising; In the absence of rich market experience, the decision to buy money is only the choice of speculators

2. You'd better not touch the illegal things, otherwise you will lose everything. Hope to adopt.

3. Bear market refers to the situation that the stock market is depressed, the trading is shrinking, and the index is falling all the way. For example, the period from July 2001 to the end of 2002 is a typical bear market. During this period, the management frequently issued favorable policies to rescue the market, but the stock market still fell. The turnover has shrunk repeatedly, there is no hot plate speculation, and the number of people entering the market has decreased
the so-called "bear market", also known as short market, refers to a market that is generally bearish and lasts for a relatively long time
the so-called "bull market", also known as the bull market, refers to the market generally bullish, lasting for a long time
in English: bear, bear market. "English Chinese Dictionary of securities investment" by the commercial press explains: bear market; short position. Also known as down market, light market, short market; Short selling market, etc. A declining market with a depressed market and a long period of time. Generally, when the market falls by more than 20%, it is a bear market. The other is bear market

compared with the recent top level, it has dropped by more than 20%, that is, it has entered a bear market. For example, on July 10, 2008, the standard & Poor's 500 index has dropped more than 20% compared with its highest level in October last year, which indicates that it has begun to fall into the so-called "bear market". The Dow Jones Instrial Average has also fallen as much as 21% and started to fall into a bear market on July 2

Bear City... Think about it

4. Bull market, also known as bull market, refers to the market generally bullish, lasting for a long time. Bear market, also known as short market, refers to the generally bearish market, which lasts for a relatively long time. Generally, it is good to know what is a bear market and a bull market, but how to judge a bull market and a bear market is really difficult for many stock investors to grasp. How to judge a bear market and a bull market? There are several ways to judge bear market and bull market as follows:
1. Economists often say that "the stock market is a barometer of the economy", which is correct. Therefore, in order to judge whether the stock market has a medium and long-term bull base, we must first see whether the macro-economy starts to recover
2. The peripheral stock markets mentioned by gold miners mainly refer to the United States, Britain, France and Germany. Their stock markets are more mature, and their trends have a very strong reference role for global financial markets, whether in the medium or short term. Relatively speaking, China's stock market is more of a follow-up trend. Therefore, to judge whether China's stock market can go bull or not, we must depend on the trend of the major financial markets in the periphery
3. Let's see whether the 30 week line of China's stock market starts to level and whether the 10 week line starts to turn upward. Gold miners believe that the operation cycle of the stock market is always determined by the big cycle and the small form by the big form. Therefore, when we conct technical analysis, we must first look at the weekly line, then the daily line, and then the time-sharing. This order can not be wrong
4. Whether the instry is a sunrise instry supported by policy. Gold prospectors often say that the national policy orientation is the biggest capital baton of the stock market. Retail investors see the main force, and the main force depends on the national policy. Therefore, to judge whether a stock has mid-line investment potential, we must first see whether the instry belongs to the sunrise instry supported by national policies. If it is, then the potential for the overall rise of the sector will be much greater
5. Judge whether indivial stocks are in the middle line and whether they belong to the leading sector. When indivial stocks start, we can technically see whether the 30 day line is at the bottom after a long-term decline, the first time it turns upward to form an upward trend, and whether the short-term stock price is running above the 5-week line. If so, it is more likely to be in an upward cycle (more detailed resistance analysis and prediction of the rise are not discussed here). In addition, whether it belongs to the strong stock in the plate, it is better to belong to the leading stock. If it is this kind of stock, then the possibility of midline rise in the future is greater
I hope it can help you, and I hope it can be adopted!

5. The highest point 1429 on May 26, 1992
the lowest point 388 on November 11, 1992, decreased by 72.8%
the highest point 1559 on February 17, 1993
the lowest point 326 on August 1, 1994, decreased by 79.1%
the highest point 2245 on June 15, 2001
the lowest point 1339 on January 23, 2002, decreased by 40.3%
the highest point 1778 on April 9, 2004
the lowest point 998 on June 7, 2005, decreased by 43.9%
the highest point 6124 on October 18, 2007
the lowest point 1665 on October 28, 2008 It's 72.8%

all of these have fallen by more than 40% in one round, and the other smaller ones have not been counted.

it took me more than an hour, but the landlord didn't give me extra points. It's hard to say, ha ha ha....

6. In fact, stock index futures is mainly used to merge the risks of stock trading, which can be traded in two ways. If you are mainly for stocks, when the stock market goes up, you can concentrate on the stock market. If the stock market goes down, you can make a blank order for the stock index in the futures market. To those who lose money is mainly chasing up or some friends who are hesitant in operation, which is the taboo of stock trading and futures trading.

7. To learn

8. One of the characteristics is the policy city. The market only has policy. Over the past decade, every major turning point in the market and behind the emergence of the market have been deeply marked by policies. Whether we admit it or not, the most prominent factor affecting China's stock market is still the direction of policies. We have noticed that no matter the speed of issuing new shares, the return of red chips, the introction of stock index futures, the introction of monetary policy, the rection proportion of state-owned shares, including the issuance rhythm of new funds, may become chips for policy control of the stock market. When the bull market index keeps climbing to a new peak, overvaluation is not the main concern of the market. Fear of policy pressure is the "Damocles sword" on investors. The policy trend has become the most important influencing factor of the stock market, changing the inherent operation law of the market, and the volatility of the market can be finally explained by policy regulation, It constitutes the main characteristics of "Chinese style bull market". Policy can not only proce market, but also create inflection point. It can also change the rhythm of the stock market and speed up or slow down the evolution of the market. Many market people are keen to study the "policy bottom", which graally constitutes the "backbone" of the stock index operation. We believe that for quite a long time, the stock market is still difficult to get rid of the shadow of policy control. China's stock market is often in a kind of ambivalence, which is not only afraid of policy regulation, but also inseparable from the policy backing, which has become the main obstacle for the market to graally mature relying on its own regulation function< The second characteristic is game market. The stock market is the place where interests are redistributed. After IPO, the fund-raising in the primary market flows into the business activities of listed companies, while if the dividend is not considered in the secondary market, the redistribution of market interests can only be seen as a "zero sum game" brought by capital gains. Statistics show that in 2006, more than 1400 listed companies made a net profit of 389.2 billion yuan. However, if the stamp ty is 0.3%, if the average daily trading volume of 200 billion yuan is considered, 288 billion yuan will be returned to the State Treasury every year. If the average commission of securities companies is 0.2%, 192 billion yuan will be generated in the whole year, and the sum of the two will be 480 billion yuan, It has exceeded the total net profit of listed companies and reached 100 billion yuan, making the secondary market become a zero sum game. Behind the game lies the multiple game relationships between management and market, between banned shares and tradable shares, between institutions and retail investors. There are not only the competition between policy and market, but also the structural game within the market. In this game relationship, the premise for retail investors to win over the market is to win over institutions, and institutions to win over the market must avoid policy risks“ The unexpected introction of "5.30" stamp ty is the fuse of this round of stock market adjustment. From the perspective of preventing the systematic risk caused by the sharp rise of the market, it is a successful game between the management and the market

the third characteristic is the nationwide market. The narrow investment channel makes the stock investment become the main investment channel for residents. In the absence of sound social security, wealth accumulation has become the goal pursued by the whole people. However, the rapid growth of residents' savings over the years reflects people's worries about the rising costs of housing, children's ecation, pension and future inflation. Asset appreciation has become an inevitable choice for people to get rid of poverty and pursue asset security. The stock market has become the first choice for domestic residents to get rich because of its strong liquidity, low investment threshold and quick money making in people's consciousness. In the first half of the year, the market showed the characteristics of moving savings and the retail structure of the stock market. Under this background, a vigorous nationwide stock speculation movement came into being. However, e to the lack of investors' awareness of the nature of the stock market and the establishment of risk prevention awareness, in the first half of the year, the market saw the rise of low-priced stocks and junk stocks, and then triggered a sharp drop of theme stocks and poor performance stocks in May 30, which sounded an alarm for investors to pursue short-term wealth< The fourth characteristic is transitional city. As listed companies are in the period of non tradable shares prohibition, the market has entered a special stage, in which listed companies become supporters of their own market value growth. First of all, because of equity incentive, it is necessary to make the promise of future profit or market value growth. Secondly, the major shareholders have changed from "tunneling" to "injection" in the past, but because the "injection" of "high-quality" assets is often one-time, there is no corresponding guarantee for the sustained growth of profits. Third, the listed companies are both investment objects and market participants. They are keen on equity investment in the secondary market and create a profit sensation, which may deviate from the original main business and enlarge the company's operational risk. Fourth, Dafei seeks favorable cash out opportunities to further overdraw the company's profits. Listed companies are likely to create short-term profit growth, pull up the stock price, overdraw the future and create the best escape opportunities. The transitional market makes it more difficult for research institutions to predict market trends and corporate profits

the fifth characteristic is to shock the market. First, there is a high degree of convergence of varieties and views recommended by research institutions. Due to the growing influence of the research, it directly affects the mainstream capital flow of the market, and it is easy to become the influencing factor of the market helping to rise and fall. Second, with the participation of the whole people and the rush of retail institutions, the market development is highly related to the number of retail accounts. It is easy to ince the market to follow blindly. Third, the inflow of overseas funds into the stock market is surging, aggravating the market turmoil. Fourth, fund cross shareholding increases the risk of the stock market. Although the setting up of blue chip stocks and blue chip stocks may objectively stabilize the market, e to the serious phenomenon of cross shareholding, once the market plummets and a large number of holders redeem, the fund will still be difficult to get rid of the "prisoner's dilemma", which may become the last straw for the market to collapse and overwhelm Luotuo. Fifthly, the profit fluctuation of listed companies is increasing. Because the profit of listed companies is not only affected by the economy itself, but also by the impact of asset injection, the possibility of big ups and downs of profit is increased. In addition, under the background of the merger of the two taxes, the new accounting standards and equity incentive, the false prosperity of the performance growth of listed companies is ushered in. Accordingly, the fundamental research based on profit analysis is also faced with unprecedented challenges

in essence, the "emerging plus transition" domestic securities market has created the main characteristics of "Chinese style bull market", which has also constantly led to the escalation of value valuation debate, increased the difficulty of fundamental research and magnified the market risk“ The characteristics of "Chinese style bull market" remind investors that the stock market is a place where interests are redistributed. If the profit growth of listed companies is unsustainable, the market will become a "zero sum game". In addition, fundamental research should pay special attention to the study of policy direction, fully understand the market risks brought by the participation of the whole people, and rationally deal with the abnormal fluctuations of listed companies' profits in the transitional period, So as to prevent the risk of high volatility operation of the stock market.

9. I'm not very clear about such a long time ago. When I was in junior high school,
according to the development history of China's stock market, there was no economic depression or crisis in 2001-04. I'm afraid that what I can think of is the reform of the stock market system between 2001-04, in which the negative factor is relatively large, should be aimed at the problem of non tradable shares
because the non tradable shares in the past can be changed into restricted tradable shares after the share reform, and they can also be listed and circulated after the sales restriction period. In addition, many state-owned enterprises take advantage of this big wave, the panic of the shareholders and the listing of a large number of restricted shares lead to a long-term bear market, but it is not a serious financial problem after all, So the decline in the stock market is not very big. When the market digested the storm of stock reform, the stock market became more reasonable and standardized, and the stock market returned to normal after the return of P / E ratio

personal understanding

10. Bull market: from December 19, 1990 to May 26, 1992,

after the formal opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, it took two and a half years for the stock market to continue to rise. Finally, stimulated by the cancellation of the price limit, it reached a high of 1429 points

bear market: from May 26, 1992 to November 17, 1992,

after the impulse, the market began to return to value, and the immature stock market fluctuated greatly. In only half a year, the stock index fell from 1429 to 386<

2 characteristics: rising very fast

bull market: November 17, 1992 ~ February 16, 1993

rapid decline is cool, rapid rise is more cool, half a year's decline, all rise back in three months. It took only three months from 386 o'clock to 1558 o'clock

bear market: from February 16, 1993 to July 29, 1994,

after the completion of the rapid bull market, the old eight stocks in Shanghai announced the expansion. With the continuous issuance of new stocks, the stock index returned to 325 points<

3 characteristics: to rescue the market, relevant departments issued three favorable policies: 1. To suspend the issuance and listing of new shares ring the year; 2; 2. Strictly control the scale of rights issue of listed companies; 3. Take measures to expand the scope of funds into the market. In one and a half months, the stock index rose by 200%, up to 1052 points

bear market: from September 13, 1994 to May 17, 1995

with the stock price rising, there is always an invisible hand to lower the stock market. On May 17, 1995, the stock index has returned to 577 points, with a decline of nearly 50%<

4 characteristics: bull market is very short

bull market: from May 18, 1995 to May 22, 1995

this bull market has only three trading days. Affected by the news that the management closed the Treasury bond futures, the stock index rose from 582 to 926 in three days

bear market: from May 22, 1995 to January 19, 1996,

after a short bull market, the stock index reached a stage low of 512 points, and the shares of blue chip stocks generally oversold, so a new round of market conditions are available<

5 characteristics: blue chip stocks take the lead

bull market: from January 19, 1996 to May 12, 1997

advocating blue chip stocks began to become the mainstream investment concept in the market. Under the leadership of Shenzhen Development and other stocks, the stock index returned to 1510. From April 1, 1996 to December 12, 1996, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 124%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 346%, and there were more than 100 stocks that rose more than five times. The development of the two leading enterprises in Shenzhen is from 6 yuan to 20.50 yuan, and that of Changhong in Sichuan is from 7 yuan to 27.45 yuan

bear market: from May 12, 1997 to May 18, 1999,

this round of adjustment is also e to excessive speculation. After the blue chip stocks have been fully hyped, the stock index has dropped to 1047 points. The most well-known is the special commentator's article "a correct understanding of the current stock market" published by people's daily, which points out that we should be highly vigilant against serious excessive speculation and possible risks in the stock market. The day the article was published, with the introction of the price limit system, the market plummeted<

6 characteristics: once the highest in history

bull market: from May 19, 1999 to June 14, 2001

this bull market is commonly known as "May 19" market. The strong eruption of network concept stocks pushed the Shanghai stock index to the highest point in history of 2245 points“ "5. 19" market is the direct outbreak of the Shanghai Securities Daily reporter Li Wei's "Internet stocks can become a leader - about China's listed companies to enter the network instry thinking", the opening of the market is led by the Oriental Pearl TV, radio and television shares, Shenzhen sands and other network stocks.

this time, the people's daily once again published a special commentator's article "firm confidence, standardize development", reiterating that the stock market is a restorative rise, requiring all parties to firm their confidence. It was in this round of market that Yian technology broke the 100 yuan mark, but it eventually became a scandal<

bear market: from June 14, 2001 to June 6, 2005,

"May 19" market, the market is most concerned about the issue of non tradable shares. The stock index also fell all the way from 2245 to 998, falling more than 50% in four years<

7 features: the longest adjustment history

bull market: June 6, 2005 ~ October 2007
after the longest adjustment in history, the P / E ratio of A-share market has dropped to a reasonable level, and a new round of market is quietly brewing. This round of bull and bear market is now in ups and downs, with a new high from 998 to 6124, which makes countless new investors dream of becoming rich overnight. When they wake up, they are struggling in the swamp of 3000. We went through the first half in this bull and bear market. What will be the trend in the second half
bear market: October 2007 - Unknown