Bitcoin accelerates international trade
money can be circulated and used, and this kind of "coercion" is indispensable. For example, if some states in the United States restore the gold standard and do not recognize your dollars, will your dollars still be useful? In fact, before that, the federal government of the United States is likely to use the "compulsory" method to force these states to terminate such acts
therefore, bitcoin without "mandatory" background can be hot fried, but it is impossible to become a large-scale general currency. If someone wants to overthrow it, it can't protect itself at all. How can this kind of thing be listed in the national trading market? Even if there is, it is just short-term speculation.
1, the short-term factors that determine the price: supply and demand and market sentiment
the relationship between supply and demand means that if the amount of money spent on buying bitcoin is more than that spent on selling bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will rise. If more people buy bitcoin, it will rise
market sentiment refers to the views of the market and the media on the price trend of bitcoin at that time. When many people strongly see bitcoin, the market sentiment is confident, and the price of bitcoin will rise rapidly. If the media makes pessimistic reports on the price of bitcoin, it will affect people's confidence and lead people to sell bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin will fall
2, the medium-term factors that determine the price: policy, news and mining cost
on the policy side, it is the policy attitude of governments towards bitcoin. For example, the recent crackdown and regulation of bitcoin by the South Korean government has led to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the near future. If more and more countries support and encourage the development of bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will be higher and higher. On the contrary, if many countries begin to suppress bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall
on the news side, there are some important things in the bitcoin instry. For example, around December, the two major stock exchanges in the United States launched bitcoin futures, which are good for bitcoin and directly push the price of bitcoin up to about $20000
mining cost is the cost of bitcoin miners using machines to dig out bitcoin. At present, the cost of digging out a bitcoin is about 12000 US dollars, so it is difficult for the price of bitcoin to fall below 12000 US dollars. Mining cost is the bottom line of bitcoin price. With the continuous increase of mining costs, the reason is that more competitors enter the mining field, especially many large institutions, companies and countries
3 determines the long-term price factors: the US dollar trend, the global bubble, the official digital currency, and the block chain technology.
the trend of the US dollar. According to the personal analysis data, the US dollar will weaken in the next few years, which means that the global monetary system with us dollar as the world currency in the past will be rebuilt. The rise and future of bitcoin is to assume the identity and mission of the world currency
global bubble. Since the United States abolished the gold standard Bretton Woods system in 70s, many countries in the United States have been printing banknote printing machines. The bubble of currency has caused the global economic bubble and asset bubble. The global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is the crisis triggered by the currency bubble. At present, the global economic bubble and asset bubble have reached the critical point of collapse. The birth of bitcoin was e to the reason of the currency bubble, which made people no longer believe in the currency of national credit, and began to believe and recognize bitcoin.
official digital currency, countries around the world have begun to prepare to issue official digital currency, that is, digital currency issued by countries. Venezuela has issued a national level digital currency - Petroleum currency. Israel is preparing to issue it, Russia is also preparing to issue it, and the Japanese government is issuing it. 2018 will become the first year of the global official digital currency. The accelerated launch of official digital currency and its increasing popularity show that the value of bitcoin as internet currency is unlimited.
Bitcoin price accelerated to rise at the same time, there has been a more rapid decline in the callback
according to the price of coindesk on bitcoin news and information network, on January 11, the price of bitcoin fell to about US $30305, down 27.78% from the highest price of US $41962 in history. In other words, the price of bitcoin fell from $40000 to $30305 in just over a day. Before that, bitcoin took six days to rise from $30000 to $40000
from the macro-economic environment, Yu Jianing believes that the correction on January 11 can be regarded as a hedging measure taken by overseas mainstream investment institutions. He believes that one of the reasons for bitcoin's rise this year is the continued decline of the dollar index. At present, Biden's government is coming to power, "bad is good", the dollar may rebound, global commodity assets have a significant correction, and the digital asset market will adjust accordingly
in recent days, the US dollar index has risen significantly. As of press release, the US dollar index is about 90.49, down 0.06 from the previous day and up 1.16% from the closing price of 89.42 on January 6
he also pointed out that many bitcoin miners choose to sell at relatively high prices. According to cq.live, the miner's position index (MPI) has reached its highest level this year. The MPI index is higher than 2, which indicates that miners tend to sell bitcoin after mining; If MPI is negative, it indicates that they are optimistic about the short-term trend and choose to hoard bitcoin. At present, the value is about 5.26, indicating that the miners are selling bitcoin on the over-the-counter market or exchange. In addition, bytetree data also shows that in the past week, bitcoin miners g out 6894 bitcoins, but sold 10047 bitcoins, which means that the miners sold nearly 3153 bitcoins in stock
Yu Jianing mentioned that another reason for the decline is the website downtime of the largest compliance exchange in the United States, such as coinbase, after the market fluctuated violently, which delayed the trading of users, and many buying orders could not be traded normally, which also led to the bitcoin price on the website far lower than the market price, further aggravating the market panic
"e to the failure of the coinbase system, we could only sell but not hang up the bill yesterday, and the whole trading world order was destroyed." A coin circle employee also said
regulatory warning bitcoin volatility risk
it is worth noting that the recent ups and downs of bitcoin has also aroused the vigilance of regulatory authorities in various countries
On January 12, the New Zealand financial market authority (FMA) warned new Zealanders to invest in cryptocurrency prudently, according to the New Zealand Herald"new Zealanders who are considering buying cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin should realize that they are high-risk and highly volatile assets," a spokesman for the New Zealand Financial Markets Authority said. "Cryptocurrencies are not regulated in New Zealand and are often used by fraudsters and hackers."
According to the times on January 9, HSBC has decided to stop providing cryptocurrency trading services to customers in the UK, including prohibiting customers from depositing funds into HSBC from their digital wallets. At the same time, many other UK banks have banned customers from using credit cards to buy digital currencies such as bitcoin"the virtual currency represented by stable currency is facing more and more complicated compliance risks. As more and more economic activities migrate to the blockchain, the instry is facing great compliance pressure. The circulation of stable currencies such as usdt will grow explosively in 2020, reaching a record high. Behind this, part of the use demand comes from the normal transactions in compliance, but there are also black and gray demands for money laundering, illegal financing and other problems. In the future, the blockchain instry will face more and more compliance challenges. " Yu said
he pointed out that according to the report on anti money laundering of virtual currency released by peckshield in 2020, the value of unregulated outbound virtual currency reached US $17.5 billion in 2020, an increase of 51% compared with that in 2019, and it is still growing rapidly. The number of fraud cases involving virtual currency continued to rise to 151, an increase of 655% over 2019
Yu Jianing said: "since the second half of 2020, fraud, attack, extortion, gambling and other assets, as well as money laundering, run points and other gray assets, have begun to turn into virtual currency money laundering. The number of extortion cases has increased rapidly, and the situation of virtual currency anti money laundering is grim. In 2021, it is necessary for the blockchain and digital assets instry to adopt a more strict and prudent KYC (know your customer) review mechanism, More stringent anti money laundering standards will be implemented. "what we are doing now with Hong Kong is just routine technical testing. When the time is ripe, digital currency can be applied in the scenario of cross-border payment now digital goods are developing faster and faster, and each country is developing its own digital currency. In the case of existing technology, digital currency at the national level certainly has no technical obstacles
in order to promote the application of digital currency, countries are also trying to carry out various tests. On the technical level, digital currency has no barriers, but cross-border projects are not just technical. Digital currency has a long way to go{ RRRRR}
Third, digital currency is far away from internationalizationdigital currency is now in the pilot stage of a few cities in China. But the promotion of domestic application scenarios also takes time. Although there are no technical barriers for digital currency, after all, digital currency involves a wide range of aspects, and the promotion of digital currency can not be completed overnight
now when digital currency is promoted in China, it is easy to carry out cross-border projects after accumulating enough experience and waiting for the right time
for & lt; Digital currency & quot; If you have any different opinions on the progress of cross-border projects, please leave a message in the comments area
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Many countries have opened up models to protect their economies from seemingly inevitable economic trends. De dollarization is popular not only among countries, but also among investors, mainly e to the growth of global technology and the increasing popularity of the Internet. At the same time, the global financial market also reflects the trend of de dollarization
At present, many countries are following this practice. The United States, through international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the world bank, continues to exert financial and economic pressure on all countries, so these countries unite to resist US interference. Technological progress has accelerated the transfer of the UK and the US as global financial centers. First of all, the unrestrained printing of US dollar also distorts the development of global economy, resulting in the expansion of stock market and out of control of US debt. Quantitative easing monetary policy, derivatives Ponzi scheme and other forms of financial leverage have also led to manipulation of the global gold market. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, if the market collapses, the central banks will go through the difficulties through the quantitative easing monetary policy, ensure the market cash flow, and let taxpayers and small investors bear the pain of the financial crisis Ordinary people may not be able to understand the market situation in time. But in fact, the dollar is devaluing. However, gold is still manipulated and controlled. Like other markets, the gold market is also affected by the dollar, central financial institutions and market manipulationthe expansion of the cryptocurrency market is not only related to the popularity of the Internet and smart phones and the development of the digital world, but also regarded by investors as a safe haven from central financial institutions and central banks. Whether bitcoin can prove to be a long-term investment remains to be seen, but the concept of cryptocurrency already exists. Blockchain technology, which supports cryptocurrency, is absolutely a typical example of economic transactions to central China. Through blockchain technology, the transaction of cryptocurrency will not involve any intermediary who can manipulate and distort the market at will