Bitcoin analysis and forecast

1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas

2. At present, bitcoin is in a state of shock and sideways. Recently, bitcoin has rebounded slightly. I will go to Matcha MXC later and sell a few bitcoins that I bought in the last few days.

3.

Peter boockvar, chief investment officer of bleakey Consulting Group. I won't be surprised if the price of bitcoin drops to $1000 to $3000 in the next year, because bitcoin is not really relevant in this $19 trillion economy. Any commodity with a parabolic rise in price will usually fall back to the starting point< However, I'm not sure whether bitcoin will slow down or plummet suddenly

the implementation of loose monetary policy by central banks such as the Federal Reserve is the main reason for people's enthusiasm for virtual money. As interest rates graally return to the right track, virtual money will collapse. Once there is a crack in the virtual currency market, investors' attitude towards high-risk assets will also change, and the stock market may be injured. All this depends on the market psychology and has nothing to do with the economic fundamentals. "

Emma, the first one is scared to pee, so hurry to add a BTC

Soros

"as a currency, it should have a stable value storage function. The fluctuation of bitcoin in a day can be as high as 25%, which means that it is not feasible to pay wages with bitcoin

compared with the rapid collapse, the price of bitcoin may remain at a flat high. The reason why the outcome of bitcoin may be different is that some people, such as dictators, want to store wealth overseas through bitcoin

, however, can not change the nature of bitcoin as a typical bubble. It is based on misunderstanding as well as tulip fever. p> It seems that BTC is not reliable. But an alligator is an alligator. There's something in it, but it's not clear. I have an epiphany. You can do it yourself

Robert Shiller, Nobel Laureate in economics and professor of economics at Yale University, reminds me of the tulip craze that took place in the Netherlands in the 1640's. basically, bitcoin has no value unless some market participants believe it is valuable. In contrast, gold has some uses even if it is not used as an investment commodity

up to now, people still pay for tulips, and sometimes the price is even quite high. In contrast, bitcoin is afraid to collapse completely and then be forgotten by the public. However, bitcoin may still exist for a long time, or even last for 100 years "

I don't understand, thank you

"Bitcoin and blockchain attract people's attention because they think it's an 'interesting experiment'". If it succeeds, it may change the world more than the Internet

however, it is also possible to fail, and the probability of failure is at least 20%. It is suggested that the amount of cryptocurrency held should be controlled within the range of bearable loss

the main reason for bitcoin's failure is that people put too much money into bitcoin and can't afford to lose money. "

raise so much money from all over the world just for an interesting experiment? Give me 0.005 BTC

dailyfx, a professional financial media of Fuhui group, said: "as the price of bitcoin failed to rebound to its historical peak in December, the price continued to fall. But objectively speaking, although the price of bitcoin fluctuates greatly, it will not fall by 50%. On the disk, the price has obvious support at the 11750 / 160 level, and the price rebounds above or after touching the support level; If the price falls below this point, it may continue to fall later

the price of Ethereum may break through the current slope area, but it will reach 1380 in the short term from the low point of 500 in December, or it will show that the bull rally is almost exhausted. Therefore, if the price does not fall in the later period, it will be more likely to consolidate. At present, the first support is at 863. If the price is still up, it will be a good opportunity for bulls to make another correction

in the later period, Ruibo currency may be in the trend of high consolidation or downward correction. As the price fell below the support level of 2.1577 yesterday, it continued to fall. In view of the sharp rise in prices last month, it is still unclear which point the current price will stabilize after falling or hitting. Therefore, it is still necessary to be cautious about the trading of Ruibo currency. "

The stock review has been changed to currency review. Brother, I recommend a coin circle of Guizhou Maotai

Dennis gartman, founder of the "king of commodities" gartman news agency, said: "nothing can change my skepticism about bitcoin. Bitcoin will bring disaster to all those involved. At the same time, once this happens, investors will rush to the gold market. There is no doubt that bitcoin will fall below $5000. "

It seems that it is necessary to collect some gold

2. Good prediction

cesares, member of PayPal's board of directors

"the probability of successful bitcoin and blockchain experiments is more than 50%. But instry participants must be patient, because it will take another five to 10 years to achieve solid success

if the experiment is successful, the world will be very different. By then, the value of a bitcoin will reach one million dollars. Therefore, most people in the world will want to buy bitcoin in the price range of $14000 or $20000. "

previously, it was said that the probability of failure is at least 20%. Now it is said that the probability of success is more than 50%. You have all the good words and bad words. Do you owe a BTC

analyst van Petersen of Shengbao bank

"the price of bitcoin is likely to reach $50000 to $100000 in 2018. Digital currencies other than bitcoin will also soar

first of all, you may think that the price of bitcoin has been properly adjusted. After all, it has dropped by 50%, which is healthy. But we haven't seen the full effect of futures contracts

this year, Ethernet may surpass bitcoin, and it will appear later than bitcoin, but it has a more unified leadership position than bitcoin. "

He was right about this guy last time. When the transaction price of bitcoin was below $900 in December 2016, he predicted that bitcoin would reach $2000 in 2017. As a result, bitcoin exceeded $2000 in May 2017. However, it is predicted that eth will surpass BTC. Well, it's not impossible for the second child to seek power to usurp the throne and kill the first child. It's just difficult

Michael Graham, analyst at canaccord genuity, an investment company, said, "one of our themes is that more institutions will enter the cryptocurrency market in 2018. The number of institutional investment procts related to bitcoin is increasing. Regulators will approve a bitcoin Trading Fund in the second half of this year or early 2019

I confirm that this year, the public will see IPOs from some encryption companies and more widely from blockchain companies. "

it's better for me to break the news! CBOE applied for six cryptocurrency ETFs at the end of 2017 and may go online in 2018. What the hell is this? That is to say, it increases the opportunity for institutional investors to have close contact with cryptocurrency and opens channels for professional speculators

Tom Lee, co-founder of fundstrat and super bull of bitcoin, predicts that the bottom of bitcoin will be about $9000. If it falls to this position, we will buy strongly, and $9000 is the best time to enter this year

it is estimated that bitcoin will rise to US $25000 by the end of the year and US $125000 by 2022

bitcoin has experienced many ups and downs, but it always stands back to the previous high point, and the low point becomes a good opportunity to buy

since the middle of 2016, bitcoin has risen more than 75% for five times and plummeted more than 25% for six times. Similar ups and downs in the stock market will take several years, but the virtual currency world can do it in a few months

also optimistic about three kinds of virtual currency. The first is eth, which has the function of smart contract and has a bright future. It is estimated that eth will rise from the current US $1000 to US $1900 at the end of this year. The second is etc, a virtual hybrid of bitcoin and Ethernet, which will rise from the current $25 to $60 at the end of the year. The third is the virtual currency Neo developed by China, whose price will rise from US $114 to US $225 at the end of the year. "

Say! How much did the project give you? I'd like to introce you to Mr. Ali, chief investment officer of blocktower capital, a cryptocurrency investment company; Ari Paul

"at some point in 2018, the price of bitcoin can be as low as $4000 or as high as $30000."

Go away

Julian hope, co-founder and President of tenx

"bitcoin may break the $60000 mark in 2018, but it may also drop to the bottom of $5000, but it's not sure which one will come first, surprise or scare."

go away + 1

Nick colas, analyst of datatrek research, a data analysis organization, said, "the fluctuation of bitcoin in 2018 will exceed that in 2017, and the fluctuation may range from US $6500 to US $22000, all of which are reasonable valuations. And $14035 would be a reasonable median. In addition, there will be four price collapses of bitcoin in 2018, with the magnitude of each collapse being about 40% or more. "

are there still four opportunities for bottom selling and position increase this year

George Tung, co-founder of cryptos r us and a veteran of cryptocurrency investment, will we see another virtual currency whose market value exceeds that of bitcoin? Yes, I believe it is absolutely possible in the next three to five years. Or as soon as three years, there will be competitors who can compete with bitcoin. "

the 3000 year old little demon wants to kill the 7000 year old demon? It's still tender

Lex Sokolin, global head of financial technology strategy, automous research, said, "the currency circle may usher in a new round of" furcation frenzy "in 2018, with a maximum of 50 furcation times!"

Pro, we are here to talk about the price. What do you mean by having a second child

4. The global economic downturn has brought great pressure on the stock market and other financial markets. The currency market does not have a good bottoming process at present. It is likely to hit a new low again and enter the bottom grinding stage after bottoming out.

5. First of all, the answer is yes, but the real success of prediction is only the tip of the iceberg. If you pay more attention to bitcoin market, it is suggested that you can download an okex to view it anytime and anywhere, which is very convenient.

6. There's no way to predict the baby in the belly of a pregnant mother.
you can't predict the baby in the belly of a pregnant mother like you.
whether you guess it's a boy or a girl, you have a 50% chance of being correct.
if you meet someone who promises to predict the trend, there's no doubt that it's a swindler.
it's possible to predict the baby in the belly of a pregnant mother once in a while.
it's possible to invest in bitcoin, You must do your homework first, to understand the basic market, to see the K-line, to understand the relevant keywords and so on
learn first, then invest

7. Theoretically speaking, it's possible. After all, there are so many precedents of sudden wealth. At present, it's also a rising period. I think I can buy it at any time, but the trading platform should be carefully selected. In China, the more reliable one is okex, which is safer.

8.

Bitcoin is more optimistic, and many people want to invest in bitcoin, and some enterprises want to own bitcoin, and also want to have more wealth

But in fact, we should have a rational view, and we should not rely too much on bitcoin, and we should not invest too much in bitcoin, because bitcoin is also very unstable. According to data analysis, bitcoin's profit has soared 20 times. How long can bitcoin's popularity last? I don't think the popularity of bitcoin can last long. There are three main reasons for this:

first, the value of bitcoin is not very stable

in fact, in my opinion, I don't think the popularity of bitcoin can last long, because I think the value of bitcoin is not very stable, and there may be some ups and downs. This means that many times some people may not let themselves to determine the value of their investment, and they may not be able to have a better accuracy. So there may be times when some people don't like bitcoin very much{ RRRRR}

that's my opinion. Do you have any ideas