February 7 BTC Market
the price of bitcoin is always floating, so the price of bitcoin for RMB is always changing. From the beginning, a few years ago, when bitcoin was converted into RMB, it was only one to several, and finally it graally developed to one to more than ten, and then to one to dozens. At this time, it has been very shocking, and many people think it is a very strange phenomenon, As a virtual currency, although many people don't know what its main function is, most people think it's a bit similar to stocks, so they made a series of investments in bitcoin. Until January 2020, the value of bitcoin has grown crazily, rising to nearly 1:47000 this growth rate has exceeded most excellent stocks. Many people are shocked and often want to understand why this phenomenon occurs. In fact, my analysis is mainly caused by the following reasons:
3 Of course, one of the main reasons why the price of bitcoin has risen so fast is also related to the psychology of chasing up and killing down. For example, when many stocks have been rising, more people will buy them, but when they are falling, many people withdraw because of fear. So far, bitcoin's rise is still very large, Therefore, some people think it has investment value, so they have been buying it
Bitcoin is just like the currency in the game, but no one releases bitcoin. Instead, it relies on a specific algorithm to generate , so now people looking for bitcoin also call themselves miners, but they rely on computers to mine
the rise of bitcoin is e to the restructuring of global risk assets , and the widening of investment channels for encrypted assets . Since the beginning of this year, the volatility of securities and foreign exchange markets has intensified, and global investors are looking for safe assets. Traditional safe asset gold is more dependent on the real economy and inflation expectations, Bitcoin is more like a sensitive index, gaining a certain asset hedging advantage
The impact of the okex incident on the currency market is fading; With the US election becoming increasingly white hot, the difficulty and hash rate of bitcoin are higher than before
in terms of price, so far, BTC has rushed to around us $11720, with a 24-hour increase of more than 2%
so the question is: where will bitcoin go in the next week
here are five factors that may affect the BTC price trend in the coming week
No.1 US macro level: election and stimulus plan this week, the US is the absolute focus of the macro market. The US presidential election will soon usher in a decisive moment (November 3)
analysts warn that if the Democratic Party (Biden) wins, the dollar will depreciate - and the long-term outlook for the dollar is already precarious. Goldman Sachs said last week that Trump's re-election was not enough to get the dollar out of danger
however, no matter what the election result is, professionals recommend buying gold as a hedge. However, in the view of others, bitcoin may bring more profits
However, e to the inverse correlation between BTC / USD and the dollar currency index (DXY), the strength of the US dollar, in the view of some bitcoin traders, will still affect the price trend of bitcoin. Although this correlation has become less and less obvious in recent weeks, the sudden weakness of the US dollar is still likely to be a boon for bitcoin
six month chart of US dollar currency index. Source: tradingview
at the same time, not only the election, but also what happened before is also a topic of interest. Specifically, a coronavirus stimulus plan was in place before polling day
If this happens, trillions of dollars of liquidity will increase the growing debt pile of the United States, and Americans will see additional benefits, such as an additional $1200 economic stimulus planNo.2 Europe suggests more intervention
with the outbreak again, the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further measures
European Central Bank President Christina; In an interview with Le Monde on Monday, Lagarde said the European Central Bank would use more financial instruments if necessary
the European Central Bank's coronavirus stimulus program has purchased a total of 1.5 trillion euros of assets
"We haven't run out of options in our toolbox yet," says Lagardebrexit is increasingly moving towards "no agreement" brexit, which makes the possibility of instability worse
No.3 the fundamentals of bitcoin have reached a new high
recently, bitcoin has maintained a strong resilience in the face of various black swan events. Influenced by okex, BTC recently dropped below $11200, but recovered steadily soon. So far, it has exceeded $11600
and on the technical level, the fundamentals of bitcoin also maintained a record strength this month
two days ago, the difficulty of the latest adjustment increased by 3.5% than expected
at the same time, the hash rate also climbed to a record high on Monday. At the time of publication, the estimated computing power for mining is 146 exahashs (EH / s) per second
as often reported in the media, the popular theory is that the price follows the hash rate, because the long-term investment prospect of bitcoin is better than ever before
bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart
No.4 analysts focus on $12000 BTC price breakthrough
for famous analyst Micha & # 235; For Lvan de Poppe, the key price conversion of bitcoin is becoming more and more reasonable
in his latest video update on Sunday, he stressed that the significant resistance level of weekly closing price below US $12000 for several consecutive years will soon end
Van de Popper believes that since the beginning of the bear market in early 2018, US $12000 has become the rejection point of the weekly chart, but the consolidation below cannot last forever
he concluded: "we are likely to rebound to the range of US $16000 to US $17000, because this is the obvious level and the last obstacle for bitcoin to begin to break through the all-time high."
after this move, there will be another consolidation period, which may last longer than the current period
van der BOPP added that he advised viewers to work hard to accumulate bitcoin, even in the $16000 range
BTC / USD 7-day price trend chart. Data source: coin360
No.5 market sentiment: greed is back
with the graal strengthening of prices, investor sentiment is also changing: data shows that investor sentiment is becoming more and more greedy. In the latest market data, the fear and greed index has returned to the "greedy" area, rising slightly from "neutral" in the past week
this indicates that bitcoin investors' emotional expectations will be bullish, but it should be noted that if the price rises too fast, "greed" will become "extreme greed", in which case the index is more likely to callback
stolen
mark kalpler, chief executive of mt.gox, bowed his apology at a news conference held in Tokyo yesterday, saying that "the loss of bitcoin is e to a loophole in the company's system"
a lawyer for Mt. GOx said that almost all the bitcoins traded on the platform were stolen, including about 750000 bitcoins in the user's trading account and about 100000 bitcoins in Mt. GOx's own account. According to the trading on February 28, the loss is estimated to be about $467 million
according to media reports, mt.gox trading platform had more than 1 million accounts at its peak, mainly from customers outside Japan, including many users trading more than US $10000. Some bitcoin investors have rushed to Tokyo from overseas in an attempt to recover trading funds from Mt. GOx
on February 7, e to hacker attacks, mt.gox temporarily stopped the bitcoin extraction business, causing transaction confusion and user dissatisfaction. From the noon of February 25, users cannot log in to mt.gox trading platform. The home page of the website then pasted a "notice to customers" to suspend all transactions
Li, a native of Hefei, spent 140000 yuan to buy 124 bitcoins in October this year. Afterwards, Li joined some chat groups of bitcoin players to pay close attention to the bitcoin market. On October 22, a person named Michael in the group took the initiative to chat with Li and asked him if he was mining“ I won't, and I won't get any money. " Mr. Li replied. Michael repeatedly urged Li to have a try and sent him a "mining tool", claiming that he could use the tool to dig more bitcoin. In the subsequent chat, Michael constantly reminds Li to put bitcoin in his wallet, saying that the trading website is not safe“ From time to time, there are news that trading websites are closing down and running away. What he said is quite reasonable, so I believe him. " Li told Anhui Business Daily
100 bitcoins disappeared
Li received and installed mining tools. On the evening of October 26, he was inced by Michael to put 100 bitcoins in his wallet. However, when the bitcoin in the E-wallet just reached 100, it suddenly disappeared. Li suddenly panic God, and then contact Michael, the convenience of invisible disappeared
Li told reporters that at present, a bitcoin costs about 5000 or 6000 yuan, and 100 bitcoins are worth 500000 or 600000 yuan. Afterwards, Li reported the case to the police. However, to Li's disappointment, because bitcoin is a virtual currency, there is no relevant domestic law to regulate and protect its transactions. The police did not file a case“ Now, this man named Michael is still active on the Internet. He's just taking advantage of the law. " Li told Anhui Business Daily
there is a Trojan horse in "mining tools"
How could Li's bitcoin disappear? 360 security engineer contacted him and tested Michael's "mining tool", and found that this tool is a very popular "bitcoin robber" Trojan horse this year. According to the analysis of 360 security center, most of the "bitcoin thieves" Trojans are disguised as mining tools, simplified wallets and other compressed files. Once a player is recruited, the Trojan will automatically search for bitcoin wallets and steal them through e-mail, hacker remote control and other means.
Last night's bitcoin was destined to be recorded in history
at 2:00 a.m., bitcoin suddenly plummeted, rapidly falling by nearly $1500. 3: 45, bitcoin fell rapidly from $9700 to a low of $7998. This is the first time since mid June that bitcoin has fallen below $8000, the lowest level in four months
The sharp drop in the price of the currency has brought about a terrible situation in the contract market, which was full of blood last nightaccording to the statistics of coin data, in the past 24 hours, a total of 920 million usdt (about RMB 6.65 billion) of burst orders were added
"bitcoin crash" also appeared on the microblog hot search list again two months later
it is worth noting that a few days ago, there was news in the market that "the Central Bank of China will issue digital currency within 80 days". At a news conference yesterday (September 24), Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, said that there is no timetable for the introction of digital currency. He said the goal of digital currency and electronic payment in the future is to replace part of cash
bitcoin plummeted by more than 15% in 100 minutes
below US $8000
last night, the collapse of bitcoin shocked investors again
at 2:00 a.m., bitcoin suddenly plummeted, rapidly falling by nearly $1500. 3: 45, bitcoin fell to a low of $7998, down more than 15%. This is the first time since mid June that bitcoin has fallen below $8000, the lowest level in four months
"in terms of bitcoin, this is quite a rare event," said Qiao Wang, proct director of messari, a New York based cryptocurrency centric data and research company
so far, bitcoin has plummeted nearly 35% from the highest point of US $13355 in the year
this means that bitcoin's bull market in 2019 is in trouble
since September 2, BTC has started to collapse from a bearish downward triangle, which has been noticed by most people in the cryptocurrency twitter community
some market participants said that the decline of bitcoin was partly e to technical factors. They pointed out that the digital currency has been falling in a triangle, which is a bearish signal
ZBG CMO Lizzie of the Hong Kong digital currency exchange
Lo told the fund that a series of expectations have been digested, including the expected baktt exchange online, but the trading is flat. In addition, the institutions will make corresponding strategic adjustments,
several major institutions short bitcoin
as of the press release, the price of bitcoin was $8651.53, down 11.08% in the past 24 hours
and the coin circle is also full of sorrow: EOS, Ethereum, etc. all fell by more than 10%
however, Lizzie Lo said that after a round of slump,
it noticed that usdt, a stable currency, had a large premium as a ticket for investment in the currency circle, which meant that there was a lot of money on the sidelines. In the medium and long term, it believes in the consensus of bitcoin, and the downward adjustment only gives opportunities for traditional funds that had not entered the market
investors were awakened by qiangping's SMS in the middle of the night
the overall collapse of the currency circle has brought about a miserable contract market, which was full of blood last night
according to the statistics of coin data, in the past 24 hours, a total of 920 million usdt (about RMB 6.65 billion) of burst orders were added. Among them, bitcoin added 6.34 million burst warehouse receipts, about 72000
BTC; EOS added 9.79 million explosive warehouse receipts, about 36.07 million EOS; Ethereum added 10.5 million explosive warehouse receipts, about 652000 eth
some bitcoin investors said that they woke up in the middle of the night last night, received a burst SMS, and then couldn't sleep any more...
the long short ratio ranged from 2:1 to 1:1
however, there were also those who made a lot of money by shorting:
according to the triple BTC short index of ZBG platform, the short profit reached its peak at 3:30 on September 25. So far, the short index has grown by 33.5% in 24 hours
Lizzie Lo points out that at 3:30 a.m., the triple shorting index reaches its peak, which means that the most people are short at that time
under the crazy counterattack of bears, the market long short ratio was slaughtered from 2:1 to 1:1
in addition, as investors sought to close their positions in the crazy sell-off, they withdrew from the market of $30 billion within 24 hours About 213.3 billion yuan)
Yi Gang: at present, there is no timetable for its launch. The goal is to replace part of M0. It is worth noting that recently, it was reported in the market that "the Central Bank of China will issue digital currency within 80 days". At a news conference yesterday (September 24), Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, said that there is no timetable for the introction of digital currency Yi Gang said:I would like to say a few points about digital currency. First, the people's Bank of China has been studying digital currency since 2014. We have a digital currency Research Institute and a special team, and we have made positive progress. We combine the central bank's digital currency and electronic payment tools, so it is called a package of digital currency and electronic payment
Second, what are the goals of digital money and electronic payment in the future? The goal is to replace a part of M0, that is, to replace a part of cash. It does not mean to replace M1 or m2 Third, the future framework of our digital currency is a two-tier operation system of the central bank and commercial banks, which will not change the current money supply path and system, so as to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the marketFourth, we will adhere to the centralized management, do not presuppose the technical route in the research and development work, we can choose the best in the market through fair competition, we can consider the blockchain technology, we can also adopt the new technology evolved from the existing electronic payment, fully mobilize the enthusiasm and creativity of the market, we have also set up a mechanism compatible with the incentive mechanism of market institutions. As for when you ask, we don't have a timetable. I think there will be a series of research, testing, pilot, assessment and risk prevention. Especially if digital currency is used across borders, there will be a series of regulatory requirements such as anti money laundering, anti terrorist financing, anti tax haven and "know your customer"
- for more data, please refer to the in depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of China's blockchain instry published by foresight Instry Research Institute
1, the short-term factors that determine the price: supply and demand and market sentiment
the relationship between supply and demand means that if the amount of money spent on buying bitcoin is more than that spent on selling bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will rise. If more people buy bitcoin, it will rise
market sentiment refers to the views of the market and the media on the price trend of bitcoin at that time. When many people strongly see bitcoin, the market sentiment is confident, and the price of bitcoin will rise rapidly. If the media makes pessimistic reports on the price of bitcoin, it will affect people's confidence and lead people to sell bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin will fall
2, the medium-term factors that determine the price: policy, news and mining cost
on the policy side, it is the policy attitude of governments towards bitcoin. For example, the recent crackdown and regulation of bitcoin by the South Korean government has led to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the near future. If more and more countries support and encourage the development of bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will be higher and higher. On the contrary, if many countries begin to suppress bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall
on the news side, there are some important things in the bitcoin instry. For example, around December, the two major stock exchanges in the United States launched bitcoin futures, which are good for bitcoin and directly push the price of bitcoin up to about $20000
mining cost is the cost of bitcoin miners using machines to dig out bitcoin. At present, the cost of digging out a bitcoin is about 12000 US dollars, so it is difficult for the price of bitcoin to fall below 12000 US dollars. Mining cost is the bottom line of bitcoin price. With the continuous increase of mining costs, the reason is that more competitors enter the mining field, especially many large institutions, companies and countries
3 determines the long-term price factors: the US dollar trend, the global bubble, the official digital currency, and the block chain technology.
the trend of the US dollar. According to the personal analysis data, the US dollar will weaken in the next few years, which means that the global monetary system with us dollar as the world currency in the past will be rebuilt. The rise and future of bitcoin is to assume the identity and mission of the world currency
global bubble. Since the United States abolished the gold standard Bretton Woods system in 70s, many countries in the United States have been printing banknote printing machines. The bubble of currency has caused the global economic bubble and asset bubble. The global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is the crisis triggered by the currency bubble. At present, the global economic bubble and asset bubble have reached the critical point of collapse. The birth of bitcoin was e to the reason of the currency bubble, which made people no longer believe in the currency of national credit, and began to believe and recognize bitcoin.
official digital currency, countries around the world have begun to prepare to issue official digital currency, that is, digital currency issued by countries. Venezuela has issued a national level digital currency - Petroleum currency. Israel is preparing to issue it, Russia is also preparing to issue it, and the Japanese government is issuing it. 2018 will become the first year of the global official digital currency. The accelerated launch of official digital currency and its increasing popularity show that the value of bitcoin as internet currency is unlimited.
Bitcoin's surge is just a short-term phenomenon. In the past, bitcoin was really hot, which made many people crazy, but its hot period has passed. At present, the sudden rise of bitcoin is obviously a kind of hype by some people who hold a lot of bitcoin. Their purpose is also very pure, through this way to attract more retail investors to invest, and then they start to make crazy profits. Don't be attracted by the heat
in fact, when it comes to bitcoin, many people may not know what it is, but the only thing people value is that it can make money, which reflects the phenomenon that people blindly follow the trend of investment. The risk of investment market is big, but the profit is also big, which requires our investors to recognize the hero. Let your own investment knowledge enrich, so that you know investment like the palm of your hand, and you won't be blind
the popularity of bitcoin will soon disappear, and it must not be speculated and invested by some people
the era of bull market has long passed, so investment should be cautious
Bitcoin can be cashed and converted into the currency of most countries. Users can use bitcoin to buy some virtual items, such as clothes, hats and equipment in online games. As long as someone accepts it, they can also use bitcoin to buy real-life items
bitcoin is a kind of P2P digital currency. Point to point transmission means a decentralized payment system
1. Bitcoin (bitcoin) is a kind of network virtual currency, which can buy real-life goods. It is characterized by decentralization, anonymity, and can only be used in the digital world. It does not belong to any country or financial institution, and is not subject to geographical restrictions. It can be exchanged anywhere in the world. Therefore, it is used as a money laundering tool by some criminals
2. On January 7, 2014, Taobao announced that it would ban the sale of Internet virtual currencies such as bitcoin and lightcoin from January 14. On February 26, 2014, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia issued an open letter to a number of regulatory authorities of the federal government of the United States, hoping that relevant institutions would pay attention to the status quo of bitcoin encouraging illegal activities and disrupting the financial order, and demanded that actions be taken as soon as possible to completely ban the electronic currency
3. On May 12, 2017, a global outbreak of bitcoin virus madly attacked public and commercial systems! Nearly 74 countries in the world have been seriously attacked
4. From August 1, 2017, global bitcoin trading platform will suspend recharge and withdrawal services. Bitcoin China digital asset trading platform will stop new user registration on September 14, and all trading businesses will be stopped on September 30
the concept of bitcoin was first proposed by Nakamoto in 2009. According to Nakamoto's ideas, open source software was designed and released, and P2P network was built on it. Bitcoin is a kind of P2P digital currency. Point to point transmission means a decentralized payment system
Unlike most currencies, bitcoin does not rely on specific currency institutions to issue. It is generated by a large number of calculations based on specific algorithms. Bitcoin economy uses a distributed database composed of many nodes in the whole P2P network to confirm and record all transactions, And the use of cryptography design to ensure the security of all aspects of money circulationthe decentralized feature and algorithm of P2P can ensure that it is impossible to artificially control the value of bitcoin by mass manufacturing. The design based on cryptography can make bitcoin only be transferred or paid by the real owner. This also ensures the anonymity of money ownership and circulation transactions. The biggest difference between bitcoin and other virtual currencies is that the total amount of bitcoin is very limited and it has a strong scarcity. The monetary system used to have no more than 10.5 million in four years, after which the total number will be permanently limited to 21 million
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