Gold and bitcoin after the collapse of the future forecast

1. In January 2017, the lowest price of bitcoin was $796
in December 2017, the highest price of bitcoin was US $19798
in 2018, the lowest price of bitcoin is $3155
in 2018, the highest price of bitcoin was US $17157
in 2019, the lowest price of bitcoin is US $3353
in 2019, the highest price of bitcoin will be $13968
by 2020, the lowest price of bitcoin is US $3800
so far in 2020, the highest price of bitcoin is US $35000
from the above data, it can be clearly seen that bitcoin has fluctuated a lot over the years
historically, it has been rising. In the long run, I think bitcoin is worth investing

2.

Please click
to ask how much worry you can have, which is like worrying about money
since December last year, the price of bitcoin has continued to decline, with the average price of bitcoin hovering at US $6000. For old chives, the bear market of "bitcoin circle" for half a year seems nothing, but for those who have not yet entered, their hearts are full of doubts. Is this a new round of bear market of "coin circle", Or does it mean bitcoin has taken off all its packaging and returned to its e value. Perhaps the collapse of the currency circle is not a "bear market". Bitcoin has fallen from US $20000 to US $6000, Ethereum has fallen from the highest US $1500 to more than US $300, the prices of various air currencies and counterfeit currencies have been cleared, and the total market value of global digital currencies has fallen from more than US $800 billion to the lowest US $260 billion. More people call this a long bear market of the "currency circle", When all bad currencies leave the market, the currency circle will return to the bull market

red is like fire, pink is like haze, and white is like snow. The flowers are sweet; When I close my eyes, the trees seem to be full of peaches, apricots and pears. Under the flowers, hundreds of bees are buzzing and butterflies are flying around. Wild flowers everywhere are: miscellaneous children, with a name, no name, scattered in the grass, like eyes, like stars, but also blinking
"blowing face is not cold, willow wind", it's good, like mother's hand touching you. The wind brings the smell of some newly turned soil, mixed with the smell of grass, and the fragrance of various flowers, all brewing in the slightly moist air. The birds set their nests among the flowers and leaves. They are happy. They show off their crisp throats and sing melodies in harmony with the breeze and the flowing water. The piccolo of the shepherd boy on the cow's back is also ringing all day

rain is the most common, which lasts for three or two days. Don't be upset. Look, it's like cow hair, flower needle and fine silk. It's densely woven obliquely. There's a thin layer of smoke on the roof. The leaves are bright green, and the grass is green to your eyes. In the evening, when the lamp was on, a little yellow halo light set off a quiet and peaceful night. In the countryside, on the path, beside the stone bridge, there are people who are holding up umbrellas and walking slowly. There are also working farmers in the field, wearing coir and hat. Their houses, sparsely silent in the rain

there are more kites in the sky and more children on the ground. Every family in the city and countryside, old and small, came out one by one. Shuhuo Shuhuo muscles and bones, shake up the spirit, each do their own thing“ The plan of a year lies in the spring. "At the beginning, there are some efforts and some hopes

spring is like a newly fallen baby, which is new from head to toe and growing
in spring

3.

Peter boockvar, chief investment officer of bleakey Consulting Group. I won't be surprised if the price of bitcoin drops to $1000 to $3000 in the next year, because bitcoin is not really relevant in this $19 trillion economy. Any commodity with a parabolic rise in price will usually fall back to the starting point< However, I'm not sure whether bitcoin will slow down or plummet suddenly

the implementation of loose monetary policy by central banks such as the Federal Reserve is the main reason for people's enthusiasm for virtual money. As interest rates graally return to the right track, virtual money will collapse. Once there is a crack in the virtual currency market, investors' attitude towards high-risk assets will also change, and the stock market may be injured. All this depends on the market psychology and has nothing to do with the economic fundamentals. "

Emma, the first one is scared to pee, so hurry to add a BTC

Soros

"as a currency, it should have a stable value storage function. The fluctuation of bitcoin in a day can be as high as 25%, which means that it is not feasible to pay wages with bitcoin

compared with the rapid collapse, the price of bitcoin may remain at a flat high. The reason why the outcome of bitcoin may be different is that some people, such as dictators, want to store wealth overseas through bitcoin

, however, can not change the nature of bitcoin as a typical bubble. It is based on misunderstanding as well as tulip fever. p> It seems that BTC is not reliable. But an alligator is an alligator. There's something in it, but it's not clear. I have an epiphany. You can do it yourself

Robert Shiller, Nobel Laureate in economics and professor of economics at Yale University, reminds me of the tulip craze that took place in the Netherlands in the 1640's. basically, bitcoin has no value unless some market participants believe it is valuable. In contrast, gold has some uses even if it is not used as an investment commodity

up to now, people still pay for tulips, and sometimes the price is even quite high. In contrast, bitcoin is afraid to collapse completely and then be forgotten by the public. However, bitcoin may still exist for a long time, or even last for 100 years "

I don't understand, thank you

"Bitcoin and blockchain attract people's attention because they think it's an 'interesting experiment'". If it succeeds, it may change the world more than the Internet

however, it is also possible to fail, and the probability of failure is at least 20%. It is suggested that the amount of cryptocurrency held should be controlled within the range of bearable loss

the main reason for bitcoin's failure is that people put too much money into bitcoin and can't afford to lose money. "

raise so much money from all over the world just for an interesting experiment? Give me 0.005 BTC

dailyfx, a professional financial media of Fuhui group, said: "as the price of bitcoin failed to rebound to its historical peak in December, the price continued to fall. But objectively speaking, although the price of bitcoin fluctuates greatly, it will not fall by 50%. On the disk, the price has obvious support at the 11750 / 160 level, and the price rebounds above or after touching the support level; If the price falls below this point, it may continue to fall later

the price of Ethereum may break through the current slope area, but it will reach 1380 in the short term from the low point of 500 in December, or it will show that the bull rally is almost exhausted. Therefore, if the price does not fall in the later period, it will be more likely to consolidate. At present, the first support is at 863. If the price is still up, it will be a good opportunity for bulls to make another correction

in the later period, Ruibo currency may be in the trend of high consolidation or downward correction. As the price fell below the support level of 2.1577 yesterday, it continued to fall. In view of the sharp rise in prices last month, it is still unclear which point the current price will stabilize after falling or hitting. Therefore, it is still necessary to be cautious about the trading of Ruibo currency. "

The stock review has been changed to currency review. Brother, I recommend a coin circle of Guizhou Maotai

Dennis gartman, founder of the "king of commodities" gartman news agency, said: "nothing can change my skepticism about bitcoin. Bitcoin will bring disaster to all those involved. At the same time, once this happens, investors will rush to the gold market. There is no doubt that bitcoin will fall below $5000. "

It seems that it is necessary to collect some gold

2. Good prediction

cesares, member of PayPal's board of directors

"the probability of successful bitcoin and blockchain experiments is more than 50%. But instry participants must be patient, because it will take another five to 10 years to achieve solid success

if the experiment is successful, the world will be very different. By then, the value of a bitcoin will reach one million dollars. Therefore, most people in the world will want to buy bitcoin in the price range of $14000 or $20000. "

previously, it was said that the probability of failure is at least 20%. Now it is said that the probability of success is more than 50%. You have all the good words and bad words. Do you owe a BTC

analyst van Petersen of Shengbao bank

"the price of bitcoin is likely to reach $50000 to $100000 in 2018. Digital currencies other than bitcoin will also soar

first of all, you may think that the price of bitcoin has been properly adjusted. After all, it has dropped by 50%, which is healthy. But we haven't seen the full effect of futures contracts

this year, Ethernet may surpass bitcoin, and it will appear later than bitcoin, but it has a more unified leadership position than bitcoin. "

He was right about this guy last time. When the transaction price of bitcoin was below $900 in December 2016, he predicted that bitcoin would reach $2000 in 2017. As a result, bitcoin exceeded $2000 in May 2017. However, it is predicted that eth will surpass BTC. Well, it's not impossible for the second child to seek power to usurp the throne and kill the first child. It's just difficult

Michael Graham, analyst at canaccord genuity, an investment company, said, "one of our themes is that more institutions will enter the cryptocurrency market in 2018. The number of institutional investment procts related to bitcoin is increasing. Regulators will approve a bitcoin Trading Fund in the second half of this year or early 2019

I confirm that this year, the public will see IPOs from some encryption companies and more widely from blockchain companies. "

it's better for me to break the news! CBOE applied for six cryptocurrency ETFs at the end of 2017 and may go online in 2018. What the hell is this? That is to say, it increases the opportunity for institutional investors to have close contact with cryptocurrency and opens channels for professional speculators

Tom Lee, co-founder of fundstrat and super bull of bitcoin, predicts that the bottom of bitcoin will be about $9000. If it falls to this position, we will buy strongly, and $9000 is the best time to enter this year

it is estimated that bitcoin will rise to US $25000 by the end of the year and US $125000 by 2022

bitcoin has experienced many ups and downs, but it always stands back to the previous high point, and the low point becomes a good opportunity to buy

since the middle of 2016, bitcoin has risen more than 75% for five times and plummeted more than 25% for six times. Similar ups and downs in the stock market will take several years, but the virtual currency world can do it in a few months

also optimistic about three kinds of virtual currency. The first is eth, which has the function of smart contract and has a bright future. It is estimated that eth will rise from the current US $1000 to US $1900 at the end of this year. The second is etc, a virtual hybrid of bitcoin and Ethernet, which will rise from the current $25 to $60 at the end of the year. The third is the virtual currency Neo developed by China, whose price will rise from US $114 to US $225 at the end of the year. "

Say! How much did the project give you? I'd like to introce you to Mr. Ali, chief investment officer of blocktower capital, a cryptocurrency investment company; Ari Paul

"at some point in 2018, the price of bitcoin can be as low as $4000 or as high as $30000."

Go away

Julian hope, co-founder and President of tenx

"bitcoin may break the $60000 mark in 2018, but it may also drop to the bottom of $5000, but it's not sure which one will come first, surprise or scare."

go away + 1

Nick colas, analyst of datatrek research, a data analysis organization, said, "the fluctuation of bitcoin in 2018 will exceed that in 2017, and the fluctuation may range from US $6500 to US $22000, all of which are reasonable valuations. And $14035 would be a reasonable median. In addition, there will be four price collapses of bitcoin in 2018, with the magnitude of each collapse being about 40% or more. "

are there still four opportunities for bottom selling and position increase this year

George Tung, co-founder of cryptos r us and a veteran of cryptocurrency investment, will we see another virtual currency whose market value exceeds that of bitcoin? Yes, I believe it is absolutely possible in the next three to five years. Or as soon as three years, there will be competitors who can compete with bitcoin. "

the 3000 year old little demon wants to kill the 7000 year old demon? It's still tender

Lex Sokolin, global head of financial technology strategy, automous research, said, "the currency circle may usher in a new round of" furcation frenzy "in 2018, with a maximum of 50 furcation times!"

Pro, we are here to talk about the price. What do you mean by having a second child

4. The global economic downturn has brought great pressure on the stock market and other financial markets. The currency market does not have a good bottoming process at present. It is likely to hit a new low again and enter the bottom grinding stage after bottoming out.

5.

At present, the price of bitcoin is mainly driven by the Chinese market, which accounts for more than 90% of the global bitcoin trading volume

some analysts said that the rise of bitcoin was mainly e to capital and currency restrictions in China, India, Venezuela and other countries, which prompted people to buy e-money to maintain their savings, and also promoted investors to keep buying

so far, investors can't help asking whether bitcoin will replace gold as the largest safe haven asset
Ian Bezek, a professional trader, believes that bitcoin and gold have their own strengths, but gold has a greater advantage at this stage

Ian Bezek pointed out that bitcoin is highly accepted in some countries with serious capital controls, such as Argentina, where it is difficult to transfer assets abroad

e to China's economic slowdown and asset outflow, RMB devaluation occurs. Bitcoin is mainly used to convert RMB assets into overseas assets, which is much more convenient than gold

this is not bad news for gold, because the popularity of bitcoin means that gold, which is also a safe haven asset, will also usher in a rising opportunity

6. At present, the price of bitcoin is mainly driven by the Chinese market, which accounts for more than 90% of the global bitcoin trading volume
some analysts said that the rise of bitcoin was mainly e to the capital and currency restrictions of China, India, Venezuela and other countries, which prompted people to buy e-money to maintain their savings, and also promoted investors to keep buying
so far, investors can't help asking whether bitcoin will replace gold as the largest safe haven asset
Ian Bezek, a professional trader, believes that bitcoin and gold have their own strengths, but gold has a greater advantage at this stage
Ian Bezek pointed out that bitcoin is highly accepted in some countries with serious capital controls, such as Argentina, where it is difficult to transfer assets abroad
e to China's economic slowdown and asset outflow, RMB devaluation occurs. Bitcoin is mainly used to convert RMB assets into overseas assets, which is much more convenient than gold
this is not bad news for gold, because the popularity of bitcoin means that gold, which is also a safe haven asset, will also have an opportunity to rise.

7. Bitcoin is a special "digital currency", which is not well recognized in China; Gold is a precious metal, the price is changing at any time, you can browse the relevant website to find the timely price of gold. Usually, when the society is stable, the price of gold doesn't change much.

8. If the economic outlook is in line with expectations, the Fed will consider recing the scale of bond purchase within this year, and the large-scale asset purchase measures are expected to be completely ended in the middle of next year,
why gold suddenly plummeted
let's take a look at the environment first. At the beginning of this year, Greece's aid program was graally finalized and implemented, the euro rose, the US dollar index fell, and gold rose from US $1523 / oz to US $1792 / oz. After the beginning of March, although there has not been any substantial improvement in the U.S. housing market and the employment market is still weak, the Goldman Sachs report also reveals that the U.S. economy is slowing down, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will still implement qe3. However, as the European debt crisis escalates, the sales of government bonds in Spain, France and Germany are poor, the euro zone is overcast, and the US dollar index fluctuates upward. However, the rise of the US dollar often brings pressure on gold, so the gold price fluctuates and falls

in addition, there are some empty talk issued by some big investment institutions
you can pay attention to the column of foreign exchange gold professional knowledge college, and the empty talk of big institutions is also constantly influencing everyone's risk aversion in investment
in fact, investors are pessimistic about the fall of gold, and so on. These are one of the reasons. The above is why gold suddenly plummeted
novices can also simulate that gold and foreign exchange can be profitable when they go up or down, with two-way effect. The emphasis is on forecasting ability. The gold code is xauusd. After all, investment and financial management is still simulated learning first, and then trading.

9.

Gold prices fell, with spot gold falling by more than 1% at one time and falling by more than 20 US dollars to 1721.45 US dollars / ounce at a daily high; Traders favor risky assets as investors take profits and amid stimulus measures and positive signs of the global economy

Gold plummeted $20

reason 1:

e to the optimism that major economies will relax the new coronavirus shutdown measures, US stocks still maintain a strong upward momentum this week. The S & P 500 closed higher on Tuesday, rebounding more than 40% from its recent low in March. The S & P 500 and the NASDAQ closed up in six of the past seven trading days

looking ahead to this trading day, the market will focus on the changes in ADP employment in the United States in May and the final value of rable goods orders in April. At the same time, the Bank of Canada (BOC) will announce the interest rate decision, and President boloz will welcome the curtain call. If the US ADP employment data still shows no obvious signs of improvement, the US dollar will suffer further pressure, and gold may take advantage of the situation and soar, and vice versa

can the dawn of the U.S. job market emerge when small Non-agricultural enterprises make their debut? Today's heaviest data, of course, is the number of ADP jobs in the United States in May. The market is expected to rece by 9 million, and the previous value is 20.236 million. After the precipitous decline in April, I believe the market will not have much expectation for this ADP employment report. What investors need to pay attention to is whether the pace and intensity of layoffs by US enterprises are slowing down, and whether most of the retail stores closed e to the epidemic will reopen. According to different situations of various instries, BofA has made an interpretation in its latest report. Among them, the accommodation and catering service instry is the instry most seriously affected by the epidemic. 2.5 million people may be unemployed in May, and the cumulative number of unemployed people in three months will reach 9.3 million. In addition, there are more than 500000 unemployed people in retail trade, health care and social assistance, management and support services, arts, entertainment and public administration. As for the market situation of small Non-agricultural enterprises after the announcement, the data is expected to have little impact on US stocks, but there may be changes in the foreign exchange market. The decline of the US dollar has puzzled the market. Some analysts believe that more and more hedge funds have flowed into gold, silver and US debt markets, and the attractiveness of the US dollar is declining. If the employment data explodes again, the US index may fall sharply, and gold will gain

a big risk is approaching

looking back at the abnormal price difference in March, a big secret was revealed... Just two months after the accident of abnormal price difference in gold futures, gold seems to have recovered from shock. With the steady rise of gold, driven by arbitrage enthusiasm, a large number of gold is being transported to the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex). However, in recent days, the gold price spread seems to have expanded. After looking back at the accident in March, it seems that a terrible conjecture is more and more likely to come true& mdash; I'm afraid that no matter how much gold is transported, it can't stop the price difference from rising again; Split & quot;. Moreover, there are signs that some banks have taken the lead in fleeing the scene now...

in the past two months, about 550 tons of physical gold has poured into the United States from the world and stored in the delivery warehouse of Comex gold futures. Comex's gold inventory has soared to a record 26 million ounces

this is a huge number. The net increase of 550 tons alone is enough to rank 11th in the global central bank's gold reserves

Chart: Comex's physical gold inventory has increased by 550 tons in the past two months

why

traditionally, most futures transactions are settled in cash, with little physical delivery. What happened behind the unprecedented transfer of physical gold

The most obvious reason is that there is a rare price difference between futures and spot gold. This spread creates a good environment for arbitrage

Chart: in this wave of trend, the price difference between gold futures and spot gold once expanded to about $75 / oz.

the so-called gold futures arbitrage is very simple to understand: because New York Futures is $70 higher than spot gold per ounce (this figure is used as an example), you can sell a futures contract on the New York Futures market, Then buy the corresponding 100 ounces of physical gold in the market (the first-hand contract of New York gold is 100 ounces), transport it to New York for delivery, and you can make a risk-free profit (US $70 - transportation cost - storage cost)

the long-term existence of this price difference stimulates the Arbitrage Behavior of the market, which makes & quot; The power of the market; Frantically searching for physical gold all over the world and shipping it to the United States

behind this simple phenomenon and explanation, there are two points worthy of further exploration & quot; Phenomenon: 1. Arbitrage profit is not out of thin air. Someone has to pay for it. Who pays for it? 2. After the gold futures contract delivered in June continued to receive a substantial premium on the spot, it suddenly received a substantial discount of nearly $20 on the spot near the delivery date. Why

These two problems are actually one problem. In the futures market, there are only two factors: long and short. Arbitragers are obviously short sellers in the futures market& mdash; Short selling contract to lock in the difference between the price and the purchase of physical gold. So in short, it is futures bulls who provide profit sources for short futures

who are the super bulls in the New York gold futures market? The answer is: banks in the United States

According to the latest market news, banks such as HSBC and JPMorgan Chase, which use gold futures to hedge spot gold risk, are no longer willing to hold large-scale New York gold futures positions. Because of the large price difference between the futures and the spot, the bank's book loss of futures position is tens of millions of dollars. HSBC once lost 200 million dollars in one day

Why are banks long on futures

here are two examples that you can easily understand: on the one hand, banks need to meet customers' demand for physical gold. When customers place orders, banks need to lock in the price through the futures market. In the early stage, when the price gap of gold is very small, usually less than US $1, banks can cover all costs and make profits by offering premium and transaction fees to customers; On the other hand, the bank itself has the business of gold financing. In the gold financing transaction, the bank is the gold lender, so it needs to be bullish through the futures market; Hedging & quot; This part of the position

and banks are the largest user group of Comex gold futures, accounting for more than one third of all Comex futures

in addition, when the futures settlement day is approaching, the premium of futures price on spot price turns into a discount. What's the matter

we know that the whole futures trading is a zero sum game (if the transaction fees are included, it is a negative sum game): the money that a bull wins is the money that a bear loses; On the contrary, the money that bears win is the money that bears lose. In the end, the total amount of money in the pool is unchanged. Since arbitrage bears have locked in the winning money by buying spot and selling futures, the Bulls who participate in the final delivery will have a Book loss& mdash; The money that the Bulls who participate in the delivery lose on the contract is reflected in the discount of the futures price to the spot when the contract is close to the delivery date or to the delivery date

how to evolve in the future

first of all, the futures fund maintains a substantial premium on the spot, which makes banks suffer losses in futures trading, and may make banks try to rece unnecessary long gold positions, such as stopping gold financing business. In fact, since the beginning of the futures market & lt; Witness history & quot; Since then, many banks have reced Comex futures trading because of concerns that the spread between futures and spot prices may widen again. According to the source, some banks intend to rece their open positions by 50% - 75%

the result may be the decrease of bulls, the short arbitrage orders suppress the gold price and make the super premium disappear. Gold prices may be under pressure in the short term

of course, this is only a theoretical process. In fact, we should pay close attention to the changes of Comex's physical gold inventory: if the inventory continues to accumulate, it means that the demand for physical delivery is lower than the supply, and most Bulls' demand is not to obtain physical gold, but just for the game, and the future price will be higher, The possibility of a sudden downward adjustment in the short term of that gold period will become more and more obvious: because the purpose of these bulls holding gold is & lt; Speculative & quot; In the end, it is not to hold physical gold, but to exchange for more legal money

unless there is a comprehensive systemic collapse, the so-called & lt; Gold investment & quot; In 99.999% of the time, the final fate is to exchange for French currency, and the rest is only a matter of time and timing

the fact is that big banks are fleeing Comex, and some central banks have become guilty. All these actions are like silent warnings to the market& mdash; If no one is willing to give a full account, the gold price gap will again & lt; Split & quot

10. In the early stage, it only dropped to 1300 per ounce, which is normal in terms of technical trend, but after the correction, it reached a new high.
personally, I think this trend itself is the reason.
moreover, the gold price did not fall sharply, and it was called a sharp drop when it fell below 1150 per ounce.
even if it fell 1250, it just showed that the trend of gold price was weak and still normal.

technically, It's no surprise that

market behavior is inclusive and digestible. If you agree with this, you won't be so suspicious of the situation outside the market