Bitcoin debate

1.

In the discussion of blockchain, bitcoin and other digital currencies, we often hear the word "bifurcation". So what is bifurcation? What is the effect of bifurcation

blockchain

before talking about bifurcation, popularize a little knowledge of blockchain, so as to help us understand what bifurcation is more easily (if you don't have any concept of blockchain, please read my previous articles, which are all popular words to help you understand what blockchain is)

blockchain, as the name suggests, is a chain composed of blocks. Of course, this kind of chain is just a figurative metaphor. To put it bluntly, data blocks are connected orderly. In bitcoin, the transaction records of bitcoin are stored in the block. The size of the block and the space occupied by the transaction records determine how many transactions can be stored in a block. These transaction records are packaged into blocks, and then the blocks are connected one by one to form a blockchain

We know that bitcoin software, like other software, needs to be updated and modified regularly in order to make it better. So a new version will appear, but not everyone will download the new version, so one miner will run the old version, and some will run the new version. If the old and new versions are not compatible, the blockchain will bifurcate. Because there may be differences between the version blocks and the old version blocks, they cannot be connected to the same blockchain, so there will be two or even more chains, which is called bifurcation

soft forking

soft forking refers to that when the new consensus rules are released, nodes that have not been upgraded will proce illegal blocks because they do not know the new consensus rules, resulting in temporary forking. This kind of bifurcation will be graally repaired with the upgrading of nodes

hard fork

hard fork refers to the permanent divergence of the blockchain. After the release of the new consensus rules, some nodes that have not been upgraded cannot verify the blocks proced by the upgraded nodes, and usually hard fork occurs. Therefore, in the field of digital currency, hard bifurcation often leads to the emergence of new currencies. For example, the hard bifurcation of Ethereum led to the emergence of eth

What is bifurcation? What is bitcoin bifurcation

2. 1、 The definition of virtual currency
virtual currency originally refers to non real currency.
in the case that virtual currency is connected with reality, virtual currency has its real value. Well known virtual currencies such as Tencent's q-coin, q-point, Shanda's roll, Sina's u-coin meter ticket (used in igome game), chivalrous Yuanbao (used in chivalrous road game), and so on, In the era of stand-alone games, the protagonists accumulate money by knocking down the enemy and winning money in gambling houses to buy Herbs and equipment, At that time, there was no "market" between players. Since the Internet established the portal and community and realized the game networking, there has been a "financial market" for virtual currency, and players can trade game currency.
the second type is the special currency issued by portal websites or instant messaging service providers, Tencent's q-coin is the most widely used to purchase services on this website. It can be used to purchase membership, QQ show and other value-added services.
Third, the difference between real currency and virtual currency

the first feature: different value formation mechanisms.
general currency and virtual currency have different value bases, the former represents utility, The latter represents value.
as a general equivalent, the "price" of currency is called value in language, but actually refers to utility. Virtual currency does not represent the "effect" of general "price", but the value itself.
virtual currency is not a general equivalent, but a manifestation of value relativity, or a symbol of expression; It can also be said that virtual currency is a personalized currency.
the second feature is that the monetary decision mechanism is different.
general currency is decided by the central bank, while virtual currency is decided by indivials.
reflected in the monetary decision mechanism, real currency is decided by the central bank; The virtual money market (such as stock market and game money market) is determined by forces outside the central bank, The economy formed by stock market and derivative financial market is called fictitious economy. The essence of fictitious economy is information economy with indivial as the center.
the third characteristic is that the value exchange mechanism is different.
the value conversion of general currency is completed in the money market; The value exchange between general currency and virtual currency is completed through the overall exchange of the two markets. Under special conditions, there is an immature exchange relationship between indivial markets. Therefore, it can be said that general currency and virtual currency are in different markets.
some people worry that game virtual currency may cause inflation, Just as the imbalance of supply and demand in the commodity market can not directly lead to the imbalance of supply and demand in the money market, it must be through the issuance of additional money in the overall market to lead to inflation; At present, the stock market is a unified market, but the game market is not.
for example, the ratio of a certain game virtual currency to RMB may initially be 800000 to 1, Then it may change to 8 million to 1. Maybe the virtual currency of a castle today will be enough to buy a Tomahawk tomorrow; If the virtual currency forms a unified market, it may indeed exert pressure on the money market. The problem is that there is no such unified market now. The issuers of game currency are independent of each other and do not have the status of financial subject, let alone the exchange with currency at the level of financial market. What's more, whether it is base currency or value-added currency, The currency volume (m) and the currency price level (V, i.e. the velocity of circulation) have not changed, so it can not be considered that there will be monetary inflation or deflation.
for the current game currency depreciation, it is better to explain that the service conditions of a game as a value-added service have changed, As the demand for virtual currency increases, the price of services involved and the price level of virtual currency decrease. Due to the change of supply and demand conditions of such services, the price of services decreases. This is a phenomenon that can be explained by a real commodity market

3. After the mobile phone is infected with the virus, don't panic, just check and kill it in time
turn on Tencent mobile phone housekeeper security protection (or in-depth check and kill, turn on settings stubborn Trojan horse special kill)
if it's not enough, You can get the root and clear it
Open Tencent mobile phone manager (PC) - App treasure - Toolbox - one click root
or swipe the machine
Open Tencent mobile phone manager (PC) - App treasure - Toolbox - swipe the machine
or leave the factory
click settings immediately, find the settings to restore the factory, click to restore the factory and restart the phone. Virus Trojans are basically cleared. If there is a memory card, take it out, format it and put it back into the phone
3. Keep a good habit of using mobile phones. Install well-known security software, don't log on the website of pornography, gambling and drugs, don't click the unknown link, don't click the SMS with link from friends, often scan the mobile phone system, etc
4. If you find a problem, you must solve it immediately. Don't delay your time.

4. The data obtained from the source code analysis of this web page is not real-time content,
because this web page is updated by JS file,
it can only imitate the browser to accept and analyze the web page after JS running.

5. It's mainly about interests. There are mainly the following types of people who oppose BCH:
1. They hype themselves and pave the way for their bifurcating bitcoin. For example, Liao Xiang, who once strongly opposed big blocks, paid big money, and they all bifurcated bitcoin
2. Misled by the core development team, the melon eaters regard the miners as a group of criminals
3. The core development group's opposition to BCH is not only a divergence of development roadmap, but also a dispute of interests. The lightning network promoted by the core development group can make the gold owners behind it profit through the lightning network.

6.

No, but it seems that it is difficult to explain in a few simple sentences. Let's study this ark article together

to expose the common myth of bitcoin

bitcoin has been established for more than 11 years and is striving to be widely recognized by institutions. Although constructive criticism is healthy, ark believes that some influential financial research institutions are refuting bitcoin based on outdated information, inconsistent arguments and flawed analysis

in view of Goldman Sachs' recent position on bitcoin, ark is reconsidering the most common misunderstanding, which has affected its acceptance. We look forward to participating in the health and ecational debate on bitcoin, as well as the important role we believe bitcoin should play in a diversified portfolio

According to ark, some influential financial research institutions are refuting bitcoin based on outdated information, inconsistent arguments and flawed analysis

statement: bitcoin is too volatile to serve as a store of value. Counterclaim
: the volatility of bitcoin highlights the credibility of its monetary policy

critics often point out that the volatility of bitcoin is the "value store transaction breaker". Why would anyone want to store the price of an asset in such drastic fluctuations in daily prices

we believe that these critics do not understand why bitcoin fluctuates and why its volatility may decrease

although the fluctuation of bitcoin distracts opponents from evaluating its role as a value storage tool, it actually highlights the credibility of its monetary policy. The impossible trinity is the dilemma of macroeconomic policy. As shown in the figure below, the dilemma assumes that when setting monetary targets, the decision-maker can satisfy two of the three goals instead of three, because the third goal is opposite to one of the first two goals

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd. in 2020, each side of the three difficulties triangle is mutually exclusive. For example, monetary authorities that choose a fixed exchange rate and allow free capital flow cannot control the growth of money supply. Similarly, the monetary authorities that choose fixed exchange rate and control currency can not accommodate the free flow of capital, and the monetary authorities that choose to accommodate the free flow of capital and control money supply can not determine the exchange rate

based on the three dilemmas, we can understand why volatility is the natural result of bitcoin monetary policy. Contrary to the modern central bank, it does not give priority to exchange rate stability. On the contrary, based on the quantitative rules of money, bitcoin limits the growth of money supply, allows the free flow of capital, and abandons the stable exchange rate. As a result, the price of bitcoin is a function of demand relative to its supply. Its volatility is not surprising

that is to say, over time, the volatility of bitcoin is decreasing, as shown below. With the increase of adoption rate, the marginal demand of bitcoin should account for a small proportion of its total network value, so as to rece the price fluctuation. If all other conditions are equal, for example, a new demand of $1 billion with a market value of $10 billion or a network value, the impact of the price of the bitcoin should be greater than a new demand of $1 billion with a network value of $100 billion. Importantly, we believe that volatility should not rule out the main reason why bitcoin is used as a store of value, mainly because it usually occurs at the same time as a sharp rise in price

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

for a long time, the purchasing power of bitcoin has been greatly improved. For example, since 2011, the price of bitcoin has grown at a compound rate of about 200% per year. Although significant changes have taken place in the year, since 2014, the price of bitcoin has appreciated year by year at its lowest price. It's been a good year

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: Coinmetrics

claims: bitcoin bubble. Counterclaim
: bitcoin is a competitor for the role of global currency

, some economists like Nouriel Roubini (Nouriel Roubini) believe that bitcoin will suddenly disappear when it is in the bubble. The line of reasoning is that bitcoin has no intrinsic value, and its appreciation depends on speculation, such as a hot potato or tulip game, and the willingness of the "bigger fool" to pay a higher price. They believe that bitcoin is not an investable asset

we believe that this statement eliminates the reason why bitcoin has accumulated value over time. Yes, bitcoin doesn't behave like a traditional investable asset[ 1] The value of equity is determined by discounting the expected cash flow. Given the high future cash flow based on growth and / or investment capital gains, the stock appreciates independently of the shareholder base

However, monetary assets such as bitcoin are unproctive, and their appreciation depends on how they effectively maintain or increase their value over time. In a sense, the value proposition is cyclical: monetary assets will appreciate with the demand of more people, and if it is an effective monetary asset, more people will evaluate it. In other words, "money is a common illusion" and "money is valuable because others think it is valuable"

The claim that the value of money depends entirely on the common illusion, however, indicates that the form of money is arbitrary. In fact, according to monetary history, the most common and sustainable currencies have the quality of maintaining their demand. For example, for thousands of years, because of its scarcity, substitutability and rability, economists have regarded gold as the most successful form of money

we think that bitcoin is usually called digital gold, which not only has many characteristics of gold, but also can improve them. Although bitcoin is rare and rable, it also has the characteristics of divisibility, verifiability, portability and transferability. A series of monetary features of bitcoin endow it with outstanding utility, which is likely to promote demand, and believes that bitcoin is suitable for the role of global digital currency even if it is not superior

we believe that as a suitable competitor for the first batch of global digital currencies, bitcoin should at least attract demand similar to gold. However, contrary to the claim that it is in a huge bubble, the net value (or market value) of bitcoin is less than 2% of gold. p>

prediction is limited in nature, so it cannot be relied on

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

statement: bitcoin will lose the value of fork and digital . Counterclaim
: the value of bitcoin cannot be copied only by software

in the digital field, goods are invisible and can be easily copied without destroying the original goods. Indivials can send word documents extensively by e-mail, for example, while retaining the original . Similarly, thousands of people can listen to a song simultaneously and repeatedly, which actually improves the value of the original work, especially when other songwriters imitate its unique voice

Bitcoin software is no exception. It's free and open source. Indivials can software, "create network branches" and create their own versions. However, skeptics still question how scarce bitcoin will be if it is based on open source software that can be copied indefinitely

first, the bifurcated bitcoin network will not create new bitcoin units, just as the expansion of Venezuela's Bolivar will not add dollars to the US monetary base. Instead, bifurcated bitcoin creates a new network with new units or coins. Although existing bitcoin holders have the right to use new coins, the forked network operates under a set of independent rules supported by a single stakeholder. Open source software does not dilute the money supply of the original network. It not only encourages cheap experiments and new networks, but also encourages new tokens and competitive markets

the scarcity of bitcoin is crucial to its network. Today, the number of bitcoins has reached 18 million, which is measured mathematically to 21 million, as shown below. Each bitcoin is linked to a wallet at a time and cannot be copied. Importantly, the only way to control user bitcoin is to have access to its associated private key

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

so, when it forks, what makes 21 million units in bitcoin network more valuable than 21 million units in bitcoin cash (BCH) or BTC? To equate the value of bitcoin cash with the value of bitcoin is equivalent to assuming that Facebook's source code can "fork" and automatically the value of its 2.6 billion users and 50000 employees. Their value comes from the network effects of bitcoin and Facebook, not just their existence

as far as bitcoin is concerned, we believe that network effects include not only the efforts to protect the hash rate of the blockchain, but also the liquidity of bitcoin and the infrastructure supporting its adoption and use. If it is dilutive, then bifurcations will have to share bitcoin's computing power, users and liquidity. As shown below, bitcoin cash and other bifurcations do not seem to derail bitcoin's network effects

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

claims that bitcoin is for criminals
counterclaim: bitcoin is anti censorship

critics still accuse bitcoin of allowing criminal activities because of its early evil activities. In its early years, bitcoin financed the Silk Road, an online black market platform known for selling illegal drugs

In our opinion, criticizing bitcoin for promoting criminal activities is one of its basic value propositions: censorship. As a neutral technology, bitcoin allows anyone to trade and cannot identify "criminals". It does not rely on centralized permissions to identify participants by name or IP address, but by encrypted digital key and address to distinguish participants, thus giving bitcoin powerful censorship ability. Anyone can trade anytime, anywhere as long as the participants pay the miners. Once secured, the transaction cannot be easily reversed

if criminal activities can be censored on the bitcoin network, then all activities can be censored. On the contrary, bitcoin allows anyone to exchange value globally and without permission. This is not to make it an inherent tool of crime. Phones, cars and the Internet are no less powerful than bitcoin in promoting crime

In other words, it seems that only a small part of bitcoin transactions are for illegal purposes. According to chainalysis, the number of bitcoin transactions related to illegal activities is still less than 1%, which may be a contribution to the transparency of bitcoin. Any user can view the complete history of transactions on the Internet, which shows that physical cash is a better means of illegal activities

7. No, bitcoin is inborn and can't meet the financial needs of inflation, so it's useless. In the future, it will only be a collection or souvenir at most, and it's a dream for you to let the money in the hands of non bitcoin holders recognize the value of bitcoin in the hands of holders
moreover, bitcoin will not be recognized by the central bank, nor can it be circulated openly, so the audience is very small, and there is no basic value support, so it will die out sooner or later
it is certain that any digital currency not recognized by the central bank has no future.

8. Gold, gold standard and hard currency. But the appreciation will not exceed bitcoin at present, but the value will be maintained.

9.

Recently, sun Yuchen's cancellation of buffet's lunch e to illness caused an uproar in China

The buffet charity lunch has been held for 16 years since 2000, and the money is mainly donated to the grad foundation in the United States

for whatever reason, the $4.56 million sun Yuchen paid for this is said to have been paid to the grad foundation, and sun Yuchen does not want to refund it

so basically, apart from his daily life, he didn't respond to sun Yuchen's speculation

I think people's attitude is that if you come to lunch, I'll eat with you. If you don't, I don't have to cooperate with your hype. No matter what the purpose of those who come to lunch is, we have done it< br />