Before half BTC
Based on these two situations, price fluctuation seems to occur within 18 months after each halving. However, the data is still insufficient for proper analysis and price forecasting model
Will history repeat itself< p> It is important to note that in terms of the number of bitcoin holders, market value, regulations and the overall outlook for cryptocurrency, there are huge differences between 2012, 2016 and 2020. For example:market value: November 2016 - & gt; $11 billion, December 2019 - $132 billion
daily trading volume: November 2016 - & gt; 84 million US dollars, December 2019 - 17 billion US dollars
e to the increased public awareness of bitcoin and the interest of institutional investors, the risk is higher this time. Although many other cryptocurrencies have been introced since 2016, BTC's dominant position is still 66.6%. As a result, the bitcoin miner is unlikely to switch to other coins, which means that halving may have a long-term impact on bitcoin prices
However, the main gain is that there is a certain correlation between the halving of bitcoin reward and the price fluctuation after the event. These supply changes happen every four years, and it's interesting to watch their impact on the price of the bitcoinBitcoin network generates a new block every ten minutes. Every time a miner completes a block, he can get a certain amount of bitcoin as a block reward, and the reward will be halved for every 210000 blocks mined. Because the time for mining each block is limited to 10 minutes, at this rate, the period for the reward to be halved is four years, that is to say, the reward for bitcoin blocks is halved every four years
when the bitcoin block reward was halved for the first time, its price rose 25 times from 300 yuan to 7995 yuan; In the second half, the price rose 28 times from 5011 yuan to 140000 yuan. So many people predict that the third halving of bitcoin in May 2020 will lead to a sharp rise in the price of bitcoin, at least 10 times. However, these figures are not so clear. After halving in 2012, bitcoin prices rose for two months, and in 2016, there was almost no immediate response to deflation for a month. This may also be the result of the strategy of "buying rumors and selling news" implemented by some speculators
extended data:
after bitcoin halved, the supply slowed down, and keeping deflation through algorithm has always been a part of bitcoin protocol design. It was set up to ensure the value of bitcoin. By recing block incentives and setting the maximum possible supply of bitcoin at 21 million bitcoins, bitcoin has an anti inflation feature, which runs counter to the tendency of central banks to print money at will. At present, there are about 17.5 million bitcoins in circulation, and less than 3.5 million bitcoins are available for mining. When the next block award halves, bitcoin's annual inflation rate will drop from the current 3.8% to about 1.8%
maintaining deflation through algorithms has always been a part of the design of bitcoin protocol. It was created to guarantee the value of bitcoin. By recing block incentives and keeping the total amount of bitcoin at 21 million bitcoins, bitcoin is endowed with an anti inflation nature, which is different from the tendency of central banks to print money at will. At present, there are about 17.5 million bitcoins in circulation and less than 3.5 million available for mining. The next block award cut in half could rece bitcoin's annual inflation rate from the current 3.8% to about 1.8%. This will be the first time in bitcoin's history that it has fallen below the historical average of about 2% - 3% growth in gold supply
2020 is the first year of digital currency proction rection. Most currencies will achieve the first proction rection this year, while bitcoin will usher in the third proction rection cycle. And the market is generally high on the halving market, it is expected that this year will usher in a wave of bull market, and the logic behind it is very clear. From the perspective of historical experience, this has already formed a more extensive "consensus" in the circle of cryptocurrency
secondly, bitcoin, known as "digital gold", is recognized by more and more funds for its risk aversion, which indirectly pushes up its price. At present, in addition to bitcoin, which has the most influence, BCH, BSV, etc, dash and other currencies are the most concerned. Dozens of counterfeit currencies have chosen to be halved in 2020. Therefore, 2020 is also known as the first year of halving
what is half bitcoin
bitcoin halving means that the reward for procing new blocks is halved about every four years. This means that after halving, the corresponding bitcoin reward for each block proced is only half of the reward before halving. At present, bitcoin has been halved twice, respectively in November 2012 and July 2016. The third half of bitcoin is expected to take place on May 13, 2020. By that time, bitcoin will be halved from 12.5 blocks to 6.25 blocks
half block reward means that it will take longer for all bitcoins to enter circulation, but it also means that mining will proce fewer and fewer new bitcoins. Moreover, e to its limited supply and increased mining difficulty, its scarcity attribute becomes more and more obvious, and scarcity will directly enhance the value. As the saying goes, scarcity is more expensive! For bitcoin, there is no doubt that this is a very big advantage
buying bitcoin in 2020 is better than buying bitcoin ETF fund
3, bitcoin current price 10000x4 = US $40000 (expected price after this year's proction rection)
in this period, the return comparison between holding spot and ETF fund is as follows:
1, buying spot holding, earning three times
2, buying ETF fund, Up to 15 times (intelligent position adjustment + fund compound interest calculation)
there is no doubt that bitcoin ETF launched by bitoffer is the best investment choice
secondly, the current market sentiment is bullish, the rising trend is relatively good, and it is difficult to fall
thirdly, the good situation of national new infrastructure is difficult to fall
of course, the next month will be the cycle of proction rection. After two months of proction rection, most of them will usher in the market. Therefore, if there is a short-term withdrawal, it will be a perfect low absorption point
it's better to buy bitcoin ETF fund than bitcoin in 2020< In theory, X2
3. The current price of bitcoin is 70000x4 = 28000 US dollars (the expected price after this year's proction rection)
ring this period, the return comparison between holding spot money and ETF fund is as follows:
1. Buy spot money to hold, earn 4 times
2. Buy ETF fund, earn 12 times, Up to 30 times (intelligent position adjustment + fund compound interest calculation)
there is no doubt that bitcoin ETF launched by bitoffer is the best investment choice!
for ordinary investors, the most important thing is the price of bitcoin. Does the rection of bitcoin proction next year mean that the price of bitcoin will rise significantly? In fact, from the trend of bitcoin after the first two proction cuts, we find that bitcoin will usher in a super market soon after each half cut. Proction rection can indeed stimulate the price of bitcoin to rise substantially. It is no exaggeration to say that bitcoin halving is an important catalyst to push bitcoin into a super bull market
in addition to ordinary investors, there is a group of people who are quietly paying attention to the price of bitcoin, that is miners! Nowadays, mining costs are rising, coupled with the competition for computing power, currency price fluctuations and other reasons, resulting in the extremely unstable income of miners. In addition, it should be noted that in 2020, with the rection of bitcoin proction and the new upgrading of mining machinery, the cost of mining will be even higher. If the price of bitcoin falls below the cost of mining, the high cost will make the miners have to shut down, resulting in the loss of investment in mining machinery, and finally lead to mine disaster
How do put options hedge the risk of bitcoin falling
recently, bitoffer is the world's first BTC option, which has no margin, no handling charge and no exercise, so it is the most suitable tool for hedging bitcoin spot risk
for example, the current price of bitcoin is $7000. If it goes up to $8000, you can make a profit of $1000 from the spot
What if it falls to $6000? You did not do any hedging, spot direct loss of $1000
if you hedge accordingly and open a put option in bitoffer, the cost will be about US $20-50. If bitcoin falls from US $7000 to US $6000, the put option will earn US $1000. In this way, the US $1000 of spot loss will be offset, and there will be no loss in the account. This is the charm of hedging.