Correlation between BTC and crude oil
Publish: 2021-04-15 23:18:39
1. Brent crude oil is a light and low sulfur crude oil from the North Sea, which is named after its trading location in Brent, London. The full name of WTI is West Texas Intermediate (WTI), whose Chinese translation is West Texas medium crude oil. As we all know, Texas is an oil procing state in the United States. The crude oil futures contract launched by NYMEX is based on the samples of commodities proced by the refineries in West Texas. As the United States is the largest consumer of oil, WTI spot contract is regarded by many investors as the benchmark price to measure the change of crude oil price in the international energy market. As for the correlation with gold is not very large, gold prices and the dollar index is negatively correlated.
2. Things are always interrelated. Dollar, gold, stock market and crude oil, which seem to have little correlation, are intrinsically inextricably linked
first, the relationship between the stock market and the US dollar
the stock market is a risky asset. When the economy is good, the liquidity is abundant and the currency depreciates, it will rise. At this time, the US dollar will fall, and the gold denominated in US dollar will rise, but the rise is less than that of the stock market< Second, there is an interactive relationship between us dollar and crude oil. The rise in crude oil prices will affect the world economy, including the United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer. The inflation pressure brought by the rise of crude oil price will bring depreciation pressure to the US dollar, and the direct consequence of the depreciation of the US dollar is that the price of crude oil in US dollar will also rise. Conversely, a decline in oil prices is a good signal to the economy, and people's confidence in the US economy will push up the US dollar exchange rate, leading to a further decline in oil prices< Third, gold and crude oil
gold is a hedge against inflation, while the rise of oil price means that inflation will follow and the uncertainty of economic development will increase. At this time, the role of gold hedging will be favored
there is a positive correlation between gold and crude oil. The rise of crude oil price indicates the rise of gold price, and the fall of crude oil price indicates the fall of gold price
in the medium and long term, the fluctuation trend of gold and crude oil is basically the same, but the range is different. Generally speaking, gold and crude oil prices are positively correlated< Fourth, the relationship between the US dollar and gold
first, the US dollar and gold are the strategic reserves of all countries in the world. If the US dollar rises, it will naturally weaken the value of gold as a reserve. On the contrary, the weakening of the US dollar will also increase the value of gold as a strategic reserve
Second, the economy of the United States is still the backbone of the world economy. As a country accounting for 1 / 4 of the world economy, the economy of the United States certainly reflects the world economy, and gold is inversely proportional to the quality of the world economy
thirdly, gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so when the U.S. dollar rises, of course, gold will fall. On the contrary, when the U.S. dollar falls, the price of gold will also rise. In a word, gold is negatively correlated with the US dollar. When the US dollar rises, gold will fall, and when the US dollar falls, gold will rise< 5. Stock market and crude oil
if the stock market falls, it is generally regarded as a sign of bad economic situation. A bad economic situation means a drop in demand for crude oil. With fewer people buying crude oil, the supply will exceed the demand, and the oil price will naturally fall. On the contrary, if the stock market goes up, the oil price will also go up. In this case, there is a positive correlation between stock market and oil price
the four markets of stock market, US dollar, gold and crude oil are interrelated and influence each other.
first, the relationship between the stock market and the US dollar
the stock market is a risky asset. When the economy is good, the liquidity is abundant and the currency depreciates, it will rise. At this time, the US dollar will fall, and the gold denominated in US dollar will rise, but the rise is less than that of the stock market< Second, there is an interactive relationship between us dollar and crude oil. The rise in crude oil prices will affect the world economy, including the United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer. The inflation pressure brought by the rise of crude oil price will bring depreciation pressure to the US dollar, and the direct consequence of the depreciation of the US dollar is that the price of crude oil in US dollar will also rise. Conversely, a decline in oil prices is a good signal to the economy, and people's confidence in the US economy will push up the US dollar exchange rate, leading to a further decline in oil prices< Third, gold and crude oil
gold is a hedge against inflation, while the rise of oil price means that inflation will follow and the uncertainty of economic development will increase. At this time, the role of gold hedging will be favored
there is a positive correlation between gold and crude oil. The rise of crude oil price indicates the rise of gold price, and the fall of crude oil price indicates the fall of gold price
in the medium and long term, the fluctuation trend of gold and crude oil is basically the same, but the range is different. Generally speaking, gold and crude oil prices are positively correlated< Fourth, the relationship between the US dollar and gold
first, the US dollar and gold are the strategic reserves of all countries in the world. If the US dollar rises, it will naturally weaken the value of gold as a reserve. On the contrary, the weakening of the US dollar will also increase the value of gold as a strategic reserve
Second, the economy of the United States is still the backbone of the world economy. As a country accounting for 1 / 4 of the world economy, the economy of the United States certainly reflects the world economy, and gold is inversely proportional to the quality of the world economy
thirdly, gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so when the U.S. dollar rises, of course, gold will fall. On the contrary, when the U.S. dollar falls, the price of gold will also rise. In a word, gold is negatively correlated with the US dollar. When the US dollar rises, gold will fall, and when the US dollar falls, gold will rise< 5. Stock market and crude oil
if the stock market falls, it is generally regarded as a sign of bad economic situation. A bad economic situation means a drop in demand for crude oil. With fewer people buying crude oil, the supply will exceed the demand, and the oil price will naturally fall. On the contrary, if the stock market goes up, the oil price will also go up. In this case, there is a positive correlation between stock market and oil price
the four markets of stock market, US dollar, gold and crude oil are interrelated and influence each other.
3. Typing is tiring. In short, when the US dollar depreciates, that is, when the US dollar index falls, investors will tend to hold commodities, thus pushing up the prices of commodity futures, especially crude oil futures and gold futures. It can be understood that the trend of crude oil futures and US dollar index is in reverse. Crude oil futures are settled in US dollars first, and limited resources second, which has a certain role of currency hedging. Generally speaking, the price of crude oil futures will change in the opposite direction under the influence of the rise and fall of the US dollar index, but the range of change should also refer to the information of proction, inventory, demand, geopolitics, the trend and strength of other major world currencies, etc
4. Fuel oil is the downstream proct of crude oil, so its price trend has a strong correlation with crude oil.
5. 1. International gold and crude oil prices are priced in US dollars, and the fluctuation of US dollar exchange rate will directly lead to the same direction fluctuation of gold price and oil price
2. High oil price aggravates inflation, which leads to the rise of gold price; The changes of oil price directly affect the operation of oil procing countries on gold, and then lead to the fluctuation of gold price<
most of these oil procing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Iran, are concentrated in the Gulf region,
most of them are Arab countries, holding huge oil dollars. When the international gold price fluctuates, they often operate in the same direction to the US dollar; Right
in order to transfer risks, oil exporting countries often invest a large part of petrodollars in the international financial market, and gold, as an excellent tool to avoid risks and maintain investment value, is naturally within the scope of the choices of these oil exporting countries. During the period of rising oil price, the oil dollars held by oil procing countries will expand rapidly, so these countries will increase the proportion of gold in their international reserves, increase the demand for gold in the international gold market, and promote the rise of gold price.
2. High oil price aggravates inflation, which leads to the rise of gold price; The changes of oil price directly affect the operation of oil procing countries on gold, and then lead to the fluctuation of gold price<
most of these oil procing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Iran, are concentrated in the Gulf region,
most of them are Arab countries, holding huge oil dollars. When the international gold price fluctuates, they often operate in the same direction to the US dollar; Right
in order to transfer risks, oil exporting countries often invest a large part of petrodollars in the international financial market, and gold, as an excellent tool to avoid risks and maintain investment value, is naturally within the scope of the choices of these oil exporting countries. During the period of rising oil price, the oil dollars held by oil procing countries will expand rapidly, so these countries will increase the proportion of gold in their international reserves, increase the demand for gold in the international gold market, and promote the rise of gold price.
6.
There is a positive correlation between gold and crude oil. The rise of crude oil price indicates the rise of gold price, and the fall of crude oil price indicates the fall of gold price. In the medium and long term, the fluctuation trend of gold and crude oil is basically the same, but the range is different. Generally speaking, the price of gold is positively correlated with the price of crude oil
The properties of crude oil include physical properties and chemical properties. Physical properties include color, density, viscosity, freezing point, solubility, calorific value, fluorescence, optical rotation, etc; Chemical properties include chemical composition, component composition and impurity content 
exchange rate fluctuations in one market can quickly spread to other markets, but each market has its own different characteristics, so simulation is very important. FXCM global gold exchange can be used for foreign exchange, gold and silver and other procts. Sydney gold exchange market is one of the earliest foreign exchange markets in the world every day. Generally, the fluctuation of exchange rate is relatively calm, and the trading varieties are mainly Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and US dollar
Generally speaking, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand for gold. For example, in the field of microelectronics, gold is increasingly used as a protective layer; In the fields of medicine and architectural decoration, although the progress of science and technology makes gold substitutes constantly appear, the demand for gold is still on the rise because of its special metal properties7. What is the crude oil correlation here?
8. In the relationship among gold, oil and US dollar, the price of gold is mainly priced in US dollars, and so is oil. In the early 1970s, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the world monetary system established after World War II, the price of gold and oil both broke away from the fixed exchange rate with the US dollar, and the price soared sharply. There are close relations and checks and balances among the three. There are relative stability hidden in each other's fluctuations, and absolute changes in the surface stability
1. The negative correlation between gold and US dollar
based on the analysis, judgment and grasp of the global macro situation, the price of gold is denominated in US dollar, which is directly affected by US dollar. Therefore, there is a great negative correlation between gold and US dollar
first of all, the appreciation or depreciation of the US dollar will directly affect the change of international gold supply and demand, which will lead to the change of gold price. In terms of the demand for gold, because gold is priced in US dollars, when the US dollar depreciates and other currencies are used to buy gold, the same amount of money can buy more gold, thus stimulating demand, increasing the demand for gold and pushing the price of gold higher. On the contrary, if the U.S. dollar appreciates, the price of gold will become more expensive for investors using other currencies, which will restrain consumption and cause the price of gold to fall
secondly, the appreciation or depreciation of the US dollar represents people's confidence in the US dollar. The appreciation of U.S. dollar indicates that people's confidence in U.S. dollar is enhanced, thus increasing their holdings of U.S. dollar and relatively recing their holdings of gold, which leads to the decline of gold price; On the contrary, the depreciation of US dollar will lead to the rise of US dollar price
it is worth noting that the negative correlation between us dollar and gold is seen from the long-term trend, and from the short-term situation, there are no exceptions. For example, in the previous period, the US dollar and gold rose at the same time. The main reason for this situation is that both of them are risk averse procts. The increase of market demand for risk aversion may push the US dollar and gold up at the same time
2. There is a positive correlation between gold and crude oil
there is a positive correlation between gold and oil, that is to say, the price of gold and oil usually change in a positive way. The rise of oil price indicates the rise of gold price, and the fall of oil price indicates the fall of gold price
oil price fluctuations will directly affect the development of the world economy, especially the U.S. economy, because the U.S. economy and crude oil consumption are ranked first in the world. The U.S. economic trend will directly affect the changes in the quality of U.S. assets, causing the rise and fall of the U.S. dollar and the rise and fall of the gold price. According to the estimates of the International Monetary Fund, every 5 US dollars increase in oil prices will rece the global economic growth rate by about 0.3 percentage points, while the U.S. economic growth rate may decline by about 0.4 percentage points. When oil prices continue to soar, the International Monetary Fund also immediately lowered its expectations for future economic growth. Oil price has become a "barometer" of the global economy. High oil price also means increasing uncertainty of economic growth and rising inflation expectations, which will push up the price of gold
in the medium and long term, the fluctuation trend of gold and crude oil is basically the same, but the magnitude is different
in the past 30 years, the price fluctuation of gold and oil in dollar terms has been relatively stable. The average price of gold is about $300 / oz, and the average price of oil is about $20 / barrel. The average exchange relationship between gold and oil is one ounce of gold for about 16 barrels of oil. This ratio peaked in the mid and late 1980s, with an ounce of gold exchanged for about 30 barrels of crude oil. However, e to the tight supply of crude oil, the price of crude oil rose sharply, while the price of gold was relatively stagnant ring the same period. Up to now, one ounce of gold can only be exchanged for about 12 barrels of oil. Judging from the current exchange ratio of oil and gold, there is still room for gold price to rise
3. The negative correlation between the US dollar and crude oil
the US economy has long relied on the two pillars of oil and the US dollar. It relies on the seigniorage of the US dollar and the monopoly position of the US dollar in the international settlement market, and controls the pricing power of the US dollar; Through the super strong military force, nearly 70% of the world's oil resources and major oil transportation channels are under its direct influence and control, thus controlling the global oil supply and controlling the price of oil. In the long run, when the US dollar depreciates, the oil price rises; When the US dollar becomes hard, the oil price shows a downward trend.
1. The negative correlation between gold and US dollar
based on the analysis, judgment and grasp of the global macro situation, the price of gold is denominated in US dollar, which is directly affected by US dollar. Therefore, there is a great negative correlation between gold and US dollar
first of all, the appreciation or depreciation of the US dollar will directly affect the change of international gold supply and demand, which will lead to the change of gold price. In terms of the demand for gold, because gold is priced in US dollars, when the US dollar depreciates and other currencies are used to buy gold, the same amount of money can buy more gold, thus stimulating demand, increasing the demand for gold and pushing the price of gold higher. On the contrary, if the U.S. dollar appreciates, the price of gold will become more expensive for investors using other currencies, which will restrain consumption and cause the price of gold to fall
secondly, the appreciation or depreciation of the US dollar represents people's confidence in the US dollar. The appreciation of U.S. dollar indicates that people's confidence in U.S. dollar is enhanced, thus increasing their holdings of U.S. dollar and relatively recing their holdings of gold, which leads to the decline of gold price; On the contrary, the depreciation of US dollar will lead to the rise of US dollar price
it is worth noting that the negative correlation between us dollar and gold is seen from the long-term trend, and from the short-term situation, there are no exceptions. For example, in the previous period, the US dollar and gold rose at the same time. The main reason for this situation is that both of them are risk averse procts. The increase of market demand for risk aversion may push the US dollar and gold up at the same time
2. There is a positive correlation between gold and crude oil
there is a positive correlation between gold and oil, that is to say, the price of gold and oil usually change in a positive way. The rise of oil price indicates the rise of gold price, and the fall of oil price indicates the fall of gold price
oil price fluctuations will directly affect the development of the world economy, especially the U.S. economy, because the U.S. economy and crude oil consumption are ranked first in the world. The U.S. economic trend will directly affect the changes in the quality of U.S. assets, causing the rise and fall of the U.S. dollar and the rise and fall of the gold price. According to the estimates of the International Monetary Fund, every 5 US dollars increase in oil prices will rece the global economic growth rate by about 0.3 percentage points, while the U.S. economic growth rate may decline by about 0.4 percentage points. When oil prices continue to soar, the International Monetary Fund also immediately lowered its expectations for future economic growth. Oil price has become a "barometer" of the global economy. High oil price also means increasing uncertainty of economic growth and rising inflation expectations, which will push up the price of gold
in the medium and long term, the fluctuation trend of gold and crude oil is basically the same, but the magnitude is different
in the past 30 years, the price fluctuation of gold and oil in dollar terms has been relatively stable. The average price of gold is about $300 / oz, and the average price of oil is about $20 / barrel. The average exchange relationship between gold and oil is one ounce of gold for about 16 barrels of oil. This ratio peaked in the mid and late 1980s, with an ounce of gold exchanged for about 30 barrels of crude oil. However, e to the tight supply of crude oil, the price of crude oil rose sharply, while the price of gold was relatively stagnant ring the same period. Up to now, one ounce of gold can only be exchanged for about 12 barrels of oil. Judging from the current exchange ratio of oil and gold, there is still room for gold price to rise
3. The negative correlation between the US dollar and crude oil
the US economy has long relied on the two pillars of oil and the US dollar. It relies on the seigniorage of the US dollar and the monopoly position of the US dollar in the international settlement market, and controls the pricing power of the US dollar; Through the super strong military force, nearly 70% of the world's oil resources and major oil transportation channels are under its direct influence and control, thus controlling the global oil supply and controlling the price of oil. In the long run, when the US dollar depreciates, the oil price rises; When the US dollar becomes hard, the oil price shows a downward trend.
9. Crude oil is one of the most important physical commodities in today's world. As one of the commodities with the largest trading volume in the world, the price of crude oil has always been closely linked with the US dollar exchange rate. Its delivery and pricing are basically settled in US dollars, so the US dollar exchange rate will also have an impact on the price of crude oil. The oil crisis in the 1970s was the sharp rise of OPEC's international oil price, accompanied by the sharp decline of the US dollar exchange rate. This reflects the decline in the value of the US dollar as a unit of oil pricing. As a strategic handicraft, crude oil is greatly affected by the basic relationship between supply and demand. The fluctuation of crude oil price is influenced by many factors. Besides politics, economy and weather, the influence of US dollar exchange rate is also an important factor<
crude oil is mainly used for transportation, instry, home and business, and power generation. The consumption of crude oil used for transportation accounts for 72% in the United States, while China is the fastest growing automobile market in the world. In the case that there is no large-scale alternative fuel in the short term, China's demand for crude oil will continue to rise in the future, and the rise and fall of crude oil prices will have a significant impact on China and the United States
as the pricing currency of international crude oil price, the influence of US dollar on crude oil price is much higher than that of other currencies, such as euro and yen. The change principle of currency exchange rate will also affect the trend of crude oil price. In theory, when the US dollar index
weakens, the price of crude oil denominated in US dollar is cheaper from the perspective of Euro or yen, and the demand will rise; On the contrary, when the US dollar appreciates, the price of crude oil in Euro or Japanese yen will be higher, and the demand for crude oil will be
lower
the relationship between crude oil and US dollar is different from that between gold and US dollar. The price of gold is affected by the exchange rate of the US dollar. The price of crude oil and the price of US dollar reflect an interactive relationship. The rise of crude oil prices will affect the world economy, including the United States, the world's largest oil consumer. The inflation pressure brought by the rise of crude oil price will bring depreciation pressure to the US dollar, and the direct consequence of the depreciation of the US dollar is that the price of crude oil in US dollar will rise accordingly. According to experts' estimation, the correlation coefficient between crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate is - 0.7. That is to say, high oil price and weak US dollar often appear at the same time. One of the major manifestations of the current global economic imbalance is that the United States has a huge fiscal deficit and current account deficit of the al deficit pattern, and the dollar has a significant depreciation trend in the medium and long term. If the expectation of US dollar depreciation cannot be eliminated, then the pattern of high international crude oil price is expected to continue< In general, the depreciation of the US dollar will promote the rise of crude oil price in three aspects:
first, the depreciation of the US dollar will rece the purchasing power of crude oil procing or exporting countries. Crude oil prices are priced in US dollars. Crude oil procers sell crude oil to get us dollars, and then convert US dollars into other countries' currencies to buy goods from other countries in the world. Due to the depreciation of US dollars, the purchasing power of crude oil procers declines. From this point of view, crude oil procers need to increase their prices in order to make up for the loss of purchasing power
Second, the depreciation of the US dollar will increase the purchasing power of some oil purchasing countries, such as Europe and Japan, because the crude oil prices in Euro and Japanese yen become relatively cheap; The depreciation of the US dollar has no effect on the purchasing power of crude oil in the United States and other countries bound with the US dollar exchange rate. Therefore, from the global market, the depreciation of the US dollar will boost the global demand for crude oil
thirdly, the depreciation of the US dollar itself corresponds to the improvement of the global economy, especially with the rapid development of emerging markets in the past 10 years, the demand for crude oil is in a strong state, and it is necessary for crude oil prices to rise.
crude oil is mainly used for transportation, instry, home and business, and power generation. The consumption of crude oil used for transportation accounts for 72% in the United States, while China is the fastest growing automobile market in the world. In the case that there is no large-scale alternative fuel in the short term, China's demand for crude oil will continue to rise in the future, and the rise and fall of crude oil prices will have a significant impact on China and the United States
as the pricing currency of international crude oil price, the influence of US dollar on crude oil price is much higher than that of other currencies, such as euro and yen. The change principle of currency exchange rate will also affect the trend of crude oil price. In theory, when the US dollar index
weakens, the price of crude oil denominated in US dollar is cheaper from the perspective of Euro or yen, and the demand will rise; On the contrary, when the US dollar appreciates, the price of crude oil in Euro or Japanese yen will be higher, and the demand for crude oil will be
lower
the relationship between crude oil and US dollar is different from that between gold and US dollar. The price of gold is affected by the exchange rate of the US dollar. The price of crude oil and the price of US dollar reflect an interactive relationship. The rise of crude oil prices will affect the world economy, including the United States, the world's largest oil consumer. The inflation pressure brought by the rise of crude oil price will bring depreciation pressure to the US dollar, and the direct consequence of the depreciation of the US dollar is that the price of crude oil in US dollar will rise accordingly. According to experts' estimation, the correlation coefficient between crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate is - 0.7. That is to say, high oil price and weak US dollar often appear at the same time. One of the major manifestations of the current global economic imbalance is that the United States has a huge fiscal deficit and current account deficit of the al deficit pattern, and the dollar has a significant depreciation trend in the medium and long term. If the expectation of US dollar depreciation cannot be eliminated, then the pattern of high international crude oil price is expected to continue< In general, the depreciation of the US dollar will promote the rise of crude oil price in three aspects:
first, the depreciation of the US dollar will rece the purchasing power of crude oil procing or exporting countries. Crude oil prices are priced in US dollars. Crude oil procers sell crude oil to get us dollars, and then convert US dollars into other countries' currencies to buy goods from other countries in the world. Due to the depreciation of US dollars, the purchasing power of crude oil procers declines. From this point of view, crude oil procers need to increase their prices in order to make up for the loss of purchasing power
Second, the depreciation of the US dollar will increase the purchasing power of some oil purchasing countries, such as Europe and Japan, because the crude oil prices in Euro and Japanese yen become relatively cheap; The depreciation of the US dollar has no effect on the purchasing power of crude oil in the United States and other countries bound with the US dollar exchange rate. Therefore, from the global market, the depreciation of the US dollar will boost the global demand for crude oil
thirdly, the depreciation of the US dollar itself corresponds to the improvement of the global economy, especially with the rapid development of emerging markets in the past 10 years, the demand for crude oil is in a strong state, and it is necessary for crude oil prices to rise.
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