How does bitcoin predict the rise and fall
Publish: 2021-04-16 15:16:25
1. It's said that it's about guessing whether the price of bitcoin will rise or fall. For example, it's predicted that the price of bitcoin will rise compared with the current price in two minutes. If the price is higher than the current price in two minutes, you can make money. It's very interesting and I'm looking forward to it.
2. One minute is a relatively reasonable time, because the type of guessing is very suitable for passing the time
3. How to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin
coincola coying Cola
Global innovative digital asset trading platform
how to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin
6 people agreed with the article
read it for you
4 minutes
recently, "bitcoin broke through $8000" has been on the hot search. For a while, bitcoin rose, reborn rose sharply, and Ethereum led the rise... A week later, this big play dominated by bitcoin didn't seem to come to an end, and the trading volume was once pushed up to 100 billion US dollars
in the investment world, "madness" and "fear" coexist. Today's "madness" stems from last year's long-term "fear". However, this time, coincola Cola Research Institute tracks and analyzes the technical indicators behind the rising market, and deconstructs the "passion" of the market with the "rationality" of data< (1) mining and bitcoin price
start with the relationship between mining and bitcoin. The core technology of bitcoin is "blockchain", which is connected by blocks. Each block corresponds to a bill. All transaction information and transfer records of bitcoin are recorded on the blockchain. Every other point in time, the bitcoin system will generate a random code on the system node. Due to distributed accounting, all computers on the Internet can search for the code. Whoever finds the code will generate a block and then get bitcoin. This process is mining. Calculating this random code requires a lot of GPU operations, so miners need to use mining machines with massive graphics cards to make profits
1. Bitcoin computing power: starting to pick up
remarks: June 2018-may 2019 bitcoin hash value
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the above figure shows the bitcoin hash value. The hash value of the bitcoin network represents the computing power of the blockchain. The growth of computing power means that miners increase mining investment or increase the number of miners. Since the second half of 2018, the hash value has recovered from falling back to picking up, from 32eh / s at the end of the year to 50eh / s now, and the recent growth trend is remarkable. The continuous growth of bitcoin hash value (representing computing power) indicates that the market is optimistic about the future of bitcoin
2. Mining difficulty: stepped up
remarks: bitcoin difficulty from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the figure above shows bitcoin difficulty. Since 2019, the difficulty of bitcoin mining has increased in a step-by-step manner, from the low 5T to the current 7T. It can be seen that the rapid rise of bitcoin in this round has reced mining costs and increased market entry personnel. The increasing difficulty of mining means that there are profit opportunities in cryptocurrency market, and the market is generally optimistic< (2) the number of active addresses and transactions on the chain are important indicators reflecting the activity of cryptocurrency, which are highly correlated with the price of cryptocurrency
1. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain: a straight line rise
remarks: the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: coinmetrics, coincola Research Institute
active addresses refer to the addresses where transactions have taken place every day, that is, how many independent addresses conct transfer transactions on the chain every day. Since 2019, the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain has been rising, especially in recent years. From 540.60143k in January to 832.592k now. It shows that the rapid growth of active users of cryptocurrency is a very positive signal for the market
2. The number of transactions on the bitcoin chain: continued to rise
remarks: the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute
since 2019, the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain has continued to rise, from 235k in early 2019 to 374k now. Moreover, since April and may, after two rounds of sharp rise in the price of bitcoin, the number of transactions on the chain has remained at a high level, even showing signs of a short-term surge< (3) lightning network and bitcoin price
in essence, lightning network adds a layer to the basic layer of bitcoin blockchain in order to make the transaction fast and cheap. With the existence of lightning network, users can remit money to each other at any time and pay very little. Lightning network represents not only the technical level of bitcoin, but also the important basis of bitcoin value
1. Lightning network nodes: rapid growth
remarks: bitcoin lightning network nodes from January 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute
the test version of lightning network started on the bitcoin main network on March 15, 2018. The number of lightning network nodes was only 64 at the beginning of 2018 and increased to 2329 at the end of 2018. Since 2019, the number of lightning network nodes has increased rapidly, and now it has reached 4289. In less than half a year, the number of nodes has doubled. The continuous expansion of nodes indicates the continuous upgrading and development of bitcoin lightning network technology, which is an important indicator of bitcoin price
2. Lightning network capacity: speed up
remarks: bitcoin lightning network capacity from January 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the data above shows that as of May 15, 2019, bitcoin lightning network capacity has increased to 1039 BTC, equivalent to 833usd, while at the beginning of 2019, it is only 504btc, Lightning network capacity doubled, and the growth rate accelerated. This means that the expansion of bitcoin has been well solved in lightning network technology, which will help keep the payment channel active and effectively support the functional application of bitcoin
the performance of mining, chain trading and lightning network is closely related to the price of bitcoin. On the one hand, the rise of bitcoin price acts as a catalyst to stimulate its performance in mining, chain and lightning network; On the other hand, mining, chain trading and lightning network are the important cornerstone of bitcoin price trend and the important basis of bitcoin price expectation<
the right of the editor belongs to the author on May 21, 2019.
apply for reprint and share it with
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coy Cola
bitcoin
Mining
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Article 42 of Bibo... Agrees with
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yesterday, he discussed bitcoin with people, and then suddenly found that the surge brought by the listing of futures may be the pit g by some big institutions, Bitcoin could collapse shortly after CME's CBOE listing. After the listing, the price will maintain a certain stability in a certain range
coincola coying Cola
Global innovative digital asset trading platform
how to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin
6 people agreed with the article
read it for you
4 minutes
recently, "bitcoin broke through $8000" has been on the hot search. For a while, bitcoin rose, reborn rose sharply, and Ethereum led the rise... A week later, this big play dominated by bitcoin didn't seem to come to an end, and the trading volume was once pushed up to 100 billion US dollars
in the investment world, "madness" and "fear" coexist. Today's "madness" stems from last year's long-term "fear". However, this time, coincola Cola Research Institute tracks and analyzes the technical indicators behind the rising market, and deconstructs the "passion" of the market with the "rationality" of data< (1) mining and bitcoin price
start with the relationship between mining and bitcoin. The core technology of bitcoin is "blockchain", which is connected by blocks. Each block corresponds to a bill. All transaction information and transfer records of bitcoin are recorded on the blockchain. Every other point in time, the bitcoin system will generate a random code on the system node. Due to distributed accounting, all computers on the Internet can search for the code. Whoever finds the code will generate a block and then get bitcoin. This process is mining. Calculating this random code requires a lot of GPU operations, so miners need to use mining machines with massive graphics cards to make profits
1. Bitcoin computing power: starting to pick up
remarks: June 2018-may 2019 bitcoin hash value
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the above figure shows the bitcoin hash value. The hash value of the bitcoin network represents the computing power of the blockchain. The growth of computing power means that miners increase mining investment or increase the number of miners. Since the second half of 2018, the hash value has recovered from falling back to picking up, from 32eh / s at the end of the year to 50eh / s now, and the recent growth trend is remarkable. The continuous growth of bitcoin hash value (representing computing power) indicates that the market is optimistic about the future of bitcoin
2. Mining difficulty: stepped up
remarks: bitcoin difficulty from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the figure above shows bitcoin difficulty. Since 2019, the difficulty of bitcoin mining has increased in a step-by-step manner, from the low 5T to the current 7T. It can be seen that the rapid rise of bitcoin in this round has reced mining costs and increased market entry personnel. The increasing difficulty of mining means that there are profit opportunities in cryptocurrency market, and the market is generally optimistic< (2) the number of active addresses and transactions on the chain are important indicators reflecting the activity of cryptocurrency, which are highly correlated with the price of cryptocurrency
1. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain: a straight line rise
remarks: the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: coinmetrics, coincola Research Institute
active addresses refer to the addresses where transactions have taken place every day, that is, how many independent addresses conct transfer transactions on the chain every day. Since 2019, the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain has been rising, especially in recent years. From 540.60143k in January to 832.592k now. It shows that the rapid growth of active users of cryptocurrency is a very positive signal for the market
2. The number of transactions on the bitcoin chain: continued to rise
remarks: the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute
since 2019, the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain has continued to rise, from 235k in early 2019 to 374k now. Moreover, since April and may, after two rounds of sharp rise in the price of bitcoin, the number of transactions on the chain has remained at a high level, even showing signs of a short-term surge< (3) lightning network and bitcoin price
in essence, lightning network adds a layer to the basic layer of bitcoin blockchain in order to make the transaction fast and cheap. With the existence of lightning network, users can remit money to each other at any time and pay very little. Lightning network represents not only the technical level of bitcoin, but also the important basis of bitcoin value
1. Lightning network nodes: rapid growth
remarks: bitcoin lightning network nodes from January 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute
the test version of lightning network started on the bitcoin main network on March 15, 2018. The number of lightning network nodes was only 64 at the beginning of 2018 and increased to 2329 at the end of 2018. Since 2019, the number of lightning network nodes has increased rapidly, and now it has reached 4289. In less than half a year, the number of nodes has doubled. The continuous expansion of nodes indicates the continuous upgrading and development of bitcoin lightning network technology, which is an important indicator of bitcoin price
2. Lightning network capacity: speed up
remarks: bitcoin lightning network capacity from January 2018 to may 2019
data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute
the data above shows that as of May 15, 2019, bitcoin lightning network capacity has increased to 1039 BTC, equivalent to 833usd, while at the beginning of 2019, it is only 504btc, Lightning network capacity doubled, and the growth rate accelerated. This means that the expansion of bitcoin has been well solved in lightning network technology, which will help keep the payment channel active and effectively support the functional application of bitcoin
the performance of mining, chain trading and lightning network is closely related to the price of bitcoin. On the one hand, the rise of bitcoin price acts as a catalyst to stimulate its performance in mining, chain and lightning network; On the other hand, mining, chain trading and lightning network are the important cornerstone of bitcoin price trend and the important basis of bitcoin price expectation<
the right of the editor belongs to the author on May 21, 2019.
apply for reprint and share it with
&< br />< br />
coy Cola
bitcoin
Mining
comments
add comments...
recommended reading
Introction | what is mining< Bitcoin and blockchain are so popular that mining is no longer a new term. Many people agree with bitcoin's article. 123
understanding bitcoin mining in 3 minutes
many people outside the instry don't understand mining, such as hashing, fault tolerance, accounting, and blocking, and finally make a mining, It's all a mystery made by people in the instry. To write this short article is to elaborate several concepts, so that people outside the instry can quickly understand...
yuan Geng's article · 70 agrees with
a brief analysis of the top 20 virtual currencies
BTC bitcoin ranks first in market value, which is known as the "king of ten thousand coins", The article of "digital gold" real...
blockchain deposit · 15 agrees with
three minutes to understand what bitcoin is
1. The money we spend when we go to the center is issued by the national government, and the government and the law are all...
the article of up chain reference · 178 agrees with
what is bitcoin mining
coin 101 will use the most accurate, popular and concise language to introce the relevant basis of blockchain to you...
Dr. Yi's article · 8 agrees with
the difficulty and income calculation of bitcoin mining
foreword recently, we are very concerned about one thing, that is, after the BCC bifurcation, e to the difficulty adjustment and price rise, the miners in order to obtain higher income, He began to move to BCC for mining, but e to the influx of computing power, the next difficulty cycle will increase, and the miners will move to BTC again...
Article 42 of Bibo... Agrees with
the prediction about the collapse time of bitcoin
yesterday, he discussed bitcoin with people, and then suddenly found that the surge brought by the listing of futures may be the pit g by some big institutions, Bitcoin could collapse shortly after CME's CBOE listing. After the listing, the price will maintain a certain stability in a certain range
4. The rise and fall of bitcoin is still related to the monetary policy of the authorities
that is, when monetary policy is loose, it will rise, and when monetary policy is tight, it will fall.
that is, when monetary policy is loose, it will rise, and when monetary policy is tight, it will fall.
5. Flash bull analysis: the most direct way to judge bitcoin is policy. When the policy is relatively loose, bitcoin will rise sharply; When the policy is relatively strict, it may fall sharply, so this and the policy really have a big background.
6. How does bitcoin's sense of unfairness come into being
1. Different issuers, the state or the central bank controls you in the sovereign monetary system, no matter how much wealth you are deprived of, because you are a vulnerable group. According to a series of factors such as herd mentality, you never dare to think that this is abnormal. The "issuers" of bitcoin (let's call them issuers here) can only exchange the initial wealth at one time. They are just early practitioners and can't control the system. These people do not have the same power as a sovereign state, so they think they should not be so "cool"? At the same time, I think this is the game currency. What are you doing
2. People who don't understand the whole system (usually onlookers, because they don't hold it, they don't really care about money and seriously understand bitcoin), we call them target groups, for example,
there is a phenomenon in Psychology: A, one day, you and a bully (or someone you think is very strong), a person with the same status as you, At the same time, I found that there was a huge amount of money of 1 million on the ground, and the bully (or you think it's very strong) picked it up first, so you and the person of the same status would not have any resistance; However, if you or someone with the same status as you pick it up, the other party will have a very unbalanced psychology and will want to solve it by force, while the bully will decide whether to intervene or not according to whether the incident affects his fundamental interests. B. It's the same thing above. If a bully picks up a million dollars every day, you two people of the same status will not yell, and you and people of the same status will never pick up the million dollars again, but the other side will still hate the other side. Above a, B hypothesis can continue to write for a long time, this is human nature, will exist for a long period of history
3. In this era, people's overall consciousness has not been advanced. Most people still only believe in hegemony. They worship the strong in different fields and trust the currency of the hegemonic system more. This will not change for a long period of time. This is connected with the political and governance system. In fact, the financial progress and even political progress involved in bitcoin are too advanced to be seen clearly at present, which is also caused by the limitation of human understanding. So many people who only engage in finance do not understand the Internet and bitcoin. Those who understand the Internet and are not familiar with finance can not persuade those who engage in finance, but those who do not understand politics or systems can not fully understand it. Among the governance systems of Europe and the United States, Germany's political system is the closest to "system governance", which is closely related to why Germany first recognized the currency status of bitcoin...
if the initial or centralized holders of bitcoin do not abandon bitcoin, what will they do? How to make it a universal currency
1. The popularity of bitcoin has many dimensions. From a small number of huge holders to the public holders is a dimension. Bitcoin is widely accepted in different countries, cultures, regions and consumption fields. There are also multiple dimensions. These dilution processes are also related to the prosperity and time of the world's major sovereign currencies. It's a huge chemical reaction and it's irreversible. A large number of supporters are only one-time issuers. This dilution is irreversible, so there is no need to worry about it
2. Worry that bitcoin will be replaced by later powerful electronic currency? That's for sure, and the worry is too far ahead of time. It's faster than the speed of light. There is no permanent form of money, which can be seen from the development of money, and with the weakening of the concept of guaijia, the sovereign currency Hui withdrew from the stage of history. The era of more powerful e-money may intersect with bitcoin, maybe after the heyday of bitcoin, but it is unlikely to appear before the heyday of bitcoin. If there is such a situation, it must be driven by a strong external force. It's unlikely that
1. Different issuers, the state or the central bank controls you in the sovereign monetary system, no matter how much wealth you are deprived of, because you are a vulnerable group. According to a series of factors such as herd mentality, you never dare to think that this is abnormal. The "issuers" of bitcoin (let's call them issuers here) can only exchange the initial wealth at one time. They are just early practitioners and can't control the system. These people do not have the same power as a sovereign state, so they think they should not be so "cool"? At the same time, I think this is the game currency. What are you doing
2. People who don't understand the whole system (usually onlookers, because they don't hold it, they don't really care about money and seriously understand bitcoin), we call them target groups, for example,
there is a phenomenon in Psychology: A, one day, you and a bully (or someone you think is very strong), a person with the same status as you, At the same time, I found that there was a huge amount of money of 1 million on the ground, and the bully (or you think it's very strong) picked it up first, so you and the person of the same status would not have any resistance; However, if you or someone with the same status as you pick it up, the other party will have a very unbalanced psychology and will want to solve it by force, while the bully will decide whether to intervene or not according to whether the incident affects his fundamental interests. B. It's the same thing above. If a bully picks up a million dollars every day, you two people of the same status will not yell, and you and people of the same status will never pick up the million dollars again, but the other side will still hate the other side. Above a, B hypothesis can continue to write for a long time, this is human nature, will exist for a long period of history
3. In this era, people's overall consciousness has not been advanced. Most people still only believe in hegemony. They worship the strong in different fields and trust the currency of the hegemonic system more. This will not change for a long period of time. This is connected with the political and governance system. In fact, the financial progress and even political progress involved in bitcoin are too advanced to be seen clearly at present, which is also caused by the limitation of human understanding. So many people who only engage in finance do not understand the Internet and bitcoin. Those who understand the Internet and are not familiar with finance can not persuade those who engage in finance, but those who do not understand politics or systems can not fully understand it. Among the governance systems of Europe and the United States, Germany's political system is the closest to "system governance", which is closely related to why Germany first recognized the currency status of bitcoin...
if the initial or centralized holders of bitcoin do not abandon bitcoin, what will they do? How to make it a universal currency
1. The popularity of bitcoin has many dimensions. From a small number of huge holders to the public holders is a dimension. Bitcoin is widely accepted in different countries, cultures, regions and consumption fields. There are also multiple dimensions. These dilution processes are also related to the prosperity and time of the world's major sovereign currencies. It's a huge chemical reaction and it's irreversible. A large number of supporters are only one-time issuers. This dilution is irreversible, so there is no need to worry about it
2. Worry that bitcoin will be replaced by later powerful electronic currency? That's for sure, and the worry is too far ahead of time. It's faster than the speed of light. There is no permanent form of money, which can be seen from the development of money, and with the weakening of the concept of guaijia, the sovereign currency Hui withdrew from the stage of history. The era of more powerful e-money may intersect with bitcoin, maybe after the heyday of bitcoin, but it is unlikely to appear before the heyday of bitcoin. If there is such a situation, it must be driven by a strong external force. It's unlikely that
7. Like stocks, is the K-line just a way to judge and speculate? Specific ups and downs are affected by many factors
welcome to pinecone blockchain for more information
welcome to pinecone blockchain for more information
8. The rise and fall of bitcoin is still related to the monetary policy of the authorities
when monetary policy is loose, it will rise sharply.
when monetary policy is loose, it will rise sharply.
9. Theoretically speaking, it's possible. After all, there are so many precedents of sudden wealth. At present, it's also a rising period. I think I can buy it at any time, but the trading platform should be carefully selected. In China, the more reliable one is okex, which is safer.
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