Gold's rise is less than bitcoin's
At present, the price of bitcoin is mainly driven by the Chinese market, which accounts for more than 90% of the global bitcoin trading volume
some analysts said that the rise of bitcoin was mainly e to capital and currency restrictions in China, India, Venezuela and other countries, which prompted people to buy e-money to maintain their savings, and also promoted investors to keep buying
so far, investors can't help asking whether bitcoin will replace gold as the largest safe haven asset
Ian Bezek, a professional trader, believes that bitcoin and gold have their own strengths, but gold has a greater advantage at this stage
Ian Bezek pointed out that bitcoin is highly accepted in some countries with serious capital controls, such as Argentina, where it is difficult to transfer assets abroad
e to China's economic slowdown and asset outflow, RMB devaluation occurs. Bitcoin is mainly used to convert RMB assets into overseas assets, which is much more convenient than gold
this is not bad news for gold, because the popularity of bitcoin means that gold, which is also a safe haven asset, will also usher in a rising opportunity
money is widely accepted as a medium of exchange. Gold is classified as money, which can be traced back to the early capitalism. At that time, gold could be used to exchange anything, but it didn't play much role. Gold is often in short supply. As a tradable tool and asset currency, it can be exchanged for a certain amount of US dollars
bitcoin has now become a means of online and offline payment, which has been accepted by many countries, but it has not been accepted by the whole world
2. The two are not irreplaceable: gold was used a long time ago, but it was rarely found and created by substitutes like gold. Bitcoin has many substitutes. Who knows what other encrypted electronic currency and technology will destroy the current market
3. Gold is a commodity, but bitcoin is not
gold is a basic commodity or hard asset that can be used in business, and can be used as a material to proce other commodities. People can also use gold for physical delivery and then make it into some other form for use. Although bitcoin is storable, it is not physical and cannot be held, felt or transferred
4. Are bitcoin and gold risk averse
bitcoin and gold are rare, their prices may be volatile, and each of them serves as an alternative investment to those who lack confidence in fiat money and monetary policy. Bitcoin trading is not as easy as gold, because people have to buy bitcoin through online trading platforms or invest in over-the-counter bitcoin trusts.
the trend of bitcoin is forming a "modern gold standard". Many people who are worried about the stability of credit currency or eager to protect their assets before the next financial crisis are keen on this kind of electronic currency
e to the convenient trading, anonymity, value preservation and other characteristics of bitcoin, many investors rush into the bitcoin market and give up the gold market. Therefore, the sharp rise of bitcoin is unfavorable to the gold market
when the expectation of unknown risks is more and more strong, the hedging property of gold will be highlighted.
Bitcoin's popularity means that gold, which is also a safe haven asset, will also usher in a rising opportunity
gold is a traditional wealth inheritance asset, which is easy to carry and store, and has a higher recognition. Although bitcoin has its advantages, people's trust in it is still not high. As a wealth storage tool, bitcoin faces many risks, such as government regulation, bitcoin code problems, and other electronic currency competition, which can lead to its value becoming zero
Before the 1970s, the price of gold was basically decided by governments or central banks, and the international price of gold was relatively stable. In the early 1970s, the gold price was no longer directly linked to the US dollar, the gold price was graally marketized, and the factors affecting the gold price were increasing. Specifically, it can be divided into the following aspects: the gold stock on the earth: there are about 137400 tons of gold in the world, and the stock of gold on the earth is still growing at a rate of about 2% every year
annual supply and demand: the annual supply and demand of gold is about 4200 tons, and the annual new output of gold accounts for 62% of the annual supply
cost of new gold mining: the average total cost of gold mining is slightly less than $260 / oz. Due to the development of mining technology, the cost of gold development has continued to decline in the past 20 years
political, military and economic changes in gold procing countries: no doubt any political and military turbulence in these countries will directly affect the amount of gold proced in the country, and then affect the world gold supply
Central Bank's gold selling: the central bank is the largest holder of gold in the world. In 1969, the official gold reserve was 36458 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the total surface gold stock at that time. In 1998, the official gold reserve was about 34000 tons, accounting for 24.1% of the total gold stock that has been mined. In terms of proction capacity, this is equivalent to 13 years of world gold proction
because the main use of gold has graally changed from an important reserve asset to a metal raw material for jewelry proction, or to improve the country's balance of payments, or to curb the international gold price, the central bank's gold reserves have declined greatly in both absolute and relative quantities in the past 30 years, The decline in the amount of gold mainly depends on the gold market to sell off inventory reserves of gold
for example, the Bank of England's large-scale selling, the Swiss central bank and the International Monetary Fund's preparation to rece gold reserves have become the main reasons for the decline of gold price in the international gold market
There is no direct link between gold and bitcoin
neither of them is money: money is widely accepted as a medium of exchange, and gold is classified as money. To a large extent, it can be traced back to the early capitalist period, when gold could be used to exchange for anything, as a tradable tool and asset currency, to exchange for a certain amount of US dollars
bitcoin has now become a means of online and offline payment, and many countries have accepted this way, but it has not been accepted by the whole world
< H2 > extended data:
unlike all currencies, bitcoin does not rely on specific currency institutions to issue. It is generated by a large number of calculations based on specific algorithms. Bitcoin economy uses a distributed database composed of many nodes in the whole P2P network to confirm and record all transactions, And the use of cryptography design to ensure the security of all aspects of money circulation
the decentralized feature and algorithm of P2P can ensure that it is impossible to artificially control the value of bitcoin by mass manufacturing. The design based on cryptography can make bitcoin only be transferred or paid by the real owner
This also ensures the anonymity of money ownership and circulation transactions. The biggest difference between bitcoin and other virtual currencies is that the total amount of bitcoin is very limited and it has a strong scarcityAs far as bitcoin is concerned, all of them know something about it. For bitcoin, it belongs to a virtual currency to some extent< but at this time, there will be a lot of people and gold for a corresponding comparison. But what we all know is that they are in a different category. If we make a corresponding comparison with them, we can say that this is a very bad thing
so for its overall operation, it is a very good thing . At this time, we can have a detailed understanding. To some extent, bitcoin is a very good way of investment. As far as gold is concerned, the range of its price increase is very small, so it is impossible to make a good investment
has eliminated all kinds of assets that fluctuate substantially because of bubbles. The best performing asset is gold! p>
of course, I never deny that, compared with the real estate yield of China's (regional emphasis) big cities (particularity emphasis), whether in the past 10 years or 20 years, gold is really irresistible
if we can infer the future wealth logic by using the trend of the past 10 years, can I use one year or five years
in the past year, the asset with the most rapid growth in the world is the ether currency in the digital currency
in the past five years, bitcoin, a digital currency, has been the world's fastest-growing asset
therefore, should we exchange all our assets for bitcoin, or even Ethernet, which the great God despises most
just as this great God and I have totally different understandings of bitcoin and blockchain, I don't deny that some of the statements in his article have some truth, but it is easy to draw the conclusion that "gold is dead, something needs burning paper". Even if he is not very ignorant of the history of human wealth, at least his conclusion is extremely hasty
not to mention anything else, central banks all over the world who print money will not agree with him because gold is still the only physical asset that central banks all over the world hold so far
in the past 20 years, why the real estate in China's big cities has become one of the most profitable assets in the world is closely related to the largest wave of urbanization and the age distribution of the population in human history, and also closely related to the largest wave of credit easing in human history, Not to mention the special land administration system and currency and credit issuance system under China's political system...
taking the special cases of asset return in indivial stages and special periods to discuss the logic of wealth, even if the arguments and facts are partially reasonable, it will not come to a reasonable conclusion
in the past 20 years, all the people who have become rich through real estate in big cities have essentially stood on the tide of a general trend. What they fear most in making investment is to regard the general trend of an era as their own ability and the special situation of a certain stage as the eternal wealth logic...
if you don't believe it, it's also real estate and the capital. 20 years ago, You go to Berlin, Germany, which is more affluent than China, to buy a house. Now compare the yields of real estate and gold to see what the result will be
without China's rapid urbanization in the past 20 years, how can China's real estate prices lead the world
before we discuss whether we should buy gold or a house, let's see three charts
compared with real estate, I think gold is undervalued, not that real estate can't be invested at all
for ordinary people, under the financial rules of today's world, whether in China or the United States, Europe or Japan, buying real estate has a particularly big advantage - leverage can be used
5 million house, you can buy it with a down payment of 1 million, which is equivalent to using 5 times of leverage. If the house price rises by 20% to 6 million, regardless of the loan interest cost, it means that you use 1 million assets to achieve a 100% return on assets
if you buy gold, you can't enjoy this rule and you can't use leverage
furthermore, as long as the interest rate of the housing loan you apply for from the bank is lower than the growth rate of the government's newly printed banknotes, theoretically speaking, you are making money - and this situation is still highly probable in the future
but leverage is also a double-edged sword - if the real estate price falls, the speed of your asset loss is also leveraged. If the house price of 5 million yuan falls by 20%, then all your down payment of 1 million yuan has disappeared. If it falls by 30%, you still owe the Bank 500000 yuan...
now, is it time to buy a house or buy gold, which goes back to the point I have emphasized countless times, Whether it's investment or transaction, in the final analysis, it's you and others to exchange your views on the future:
if you think that real estate will rise as it did in the past 20 years, because you can use the low-cost capital of the bank and leverage, then you go to buy a house; If you think gold is undervalued, buy gold
the real estate speculator mentioned that sooner or later, a house made of cement will be more expensive than a house made of pure gold
that's nothing. In Thomas Moore's Utopia 500 years ago, it was mentioned that under the public ownership, gold can only be used to build toilets and toilets because it is useless. Unfortunately, in nearly 500 years from Thomas Moore to now, even in the former Soviet Union and today's North Korea, which fully follow the "public ownership", gold has never lost its value
in the long run, in the 5000 year history of human civilization, all those who give up gold completely because of their contempt will be despised by gold in the end unless they are lucky enough not to experience the great economic fluctuation all their lives
if we don't consider the rate of return after leverage, I personally prefer to support the underestimation of gold compared with the real estate in big cities. If anyone is willing to make a 10-year or 20-year bet with me on the increase of average house price and gold price in China's big cities, I will be happy to accompany them