Why bitcoin plummeted

1. To be honest, I may come into contact with bitcoin later than many of my peers, but I'm one of the quickest people to make a decision to join the instry. I learned from the news that Jet Li's one foundation was grateful to the enthusiasts who donated bitcoin. After less than ten minutes of thinking, I immediately decided to put down 90% of the projects I had completed and devote myself to this instry with incomparable prospects. I am a technology controller. Although I am not well-known in the Internet instry, I have operated no less than 10 it projects, and have cooperated with or established 7 companies. Among them, there are also successes and failures. The only instry that has not been involved is group buying, because I thought from the beginning that group buying deviated from its original appearance and would not be a very promising instry. But after learning about bitcoin, I feel that I have found a window, a window to the palace of ideals, a way to change the world. Today, I still insist on my choice, but the real use value of bitcoin in China is rarely reflected except for its speculative property. After multi-party analysis, I think the short-term downward trend is irreversible. Let's list the following factors that cause the price of bitcoin to fall:
first, the excessively free market - the copper price killer
bitcoin is born for freedom and lives for freedom, which has created a group of bitcoin fans who are crazy about pursuing freedom. The decentralization of the bitcoin exchange has been rampant for a time. The current situation of no supervision of the bitcoin exchange is obvious to all, and it can not be solved by itself, such as the forever anonymous dark village, the disorderly competition of mining machinery, etc. these important factors that are often ignored by people are also important drivers of the price drop
just think of the capitalist social system in the early days. People had great expectations and perseverance. They could sacrifice their lives for freedom and cut the rope on puppets at all costs. During the transition from feudal socialism to capitalism, people were like holding on to the water for several generations, suddenly came out to breathe fresh air, and no one was allowed to press themselves into the water again, The result is a social system of excessive freedom. The result of excessive freedom is that once someone obtains certain resources and social advantages, he can quickly devour everything around him like a black hole, forming a monopoly and giving birth to an oligarchy. They don't care about other people's lives, just like gladiators. If you lose, you have to bear all the consequences; If I win, I can enjoy some honor. But after all, oligarchs are a minority. Society is made up of thousands of ordinary people, so the system made up of people must be unstable and unreasonable. Therefore, modern capitalist society has learned to compromise. After learning from many advantages of capitalist society at that time, it is found that there are anti-monopoly laws, various anti-commercial bribery and other daily laws for proper supervision, In order to effectively delay the outbreak cycle of the financial crisis
the reason why so many words are used to describe capitalist society is that bitcoin has too many similarities with it. A brand new financial system does not depend on specific institutions or indivials, but also depends on all participants. With it, we can eliminate all external influences and keep our wallets. It's a great idea, but what about the reality? Holding a large amount of bitcoin, amzhuang can control the price of bitcoin. In the capital market, 1 billion yuan is only a very small amount. For the bitcoin market, it is enough to control the price rise and fall of any exchange, back and forth volatility, commonly known as "fleece". Easier said than done, as like as two peas in the market, you will be able to control the bitcoin in your hands. But you have to be in the market. For these makers, they can benefit from the ups and downs, because in the trend of the rising market, they will increase ring each shock period, and fall more every time the market falls. At the top of the pyramid, there are always only a few people
after more than a year of communication with players in the instry, we found that those who are still left behind are either deeply covered or persistent believers. Even if they are covered, only a few of them are entities. Most of the left behind are pure it houses, and they blush when they meet. Most of them have no financial experience, even few of them have speculated in stocks, so they are in shock, It's certain that Xiaosan will be injured< Another important factor is that, like stocks, the amount of cash in circulation is far less than the total value. Although several exchanges have not announced the amount of bitcoin and the total amount of RMB assets, it can be concluded from the data of mtgox's bankruptcy that the amount of cash announced by mtgox is US $40 million, Bitcoin is worth US $450 million, reaching a staggering 1:11. According to my preliminary understanding, the general comparison of domestic trading platforms is between 1:3 and 1:6, which is slightly better than mtfox, but it is also enough to illustrate the problem. Once the bear market comes, the power of shorting is far greater than that of long
although the stock market did not rise sharply last year, many people did profit from the stock market and attracted many of the few users who swayed between the stock market and bitcoin. Many of the professional investment users and deep-seated users who benefited from bitcoin also left the bitcoin instry for various reasons. The big reason is that for bitcoin, They think that in addition to speculation, it is a game played by technical talents. Although this is a misunderstanding, let's think about it from another perspective. If you are an investor outside the IT instry and face the world's largest trading platform, you will go bankrupt if it goes bankrupt. If bitcoin is stolen, it will be stolen without supervision and responsibility. What would you think? Therefore, the reason for today's situation is that the number of bitcoin has not decreased, but the capital is decreasing. Although there are many foreign advantages ring this period, the domestic situation has been declining. This is an indisputable fact
with the decrease of funds, long has lost enough momentum. The reason why there is no sharp decline is that there are still a number of bitcoin loyalists. Some of them have been engaged in bitcoin for several consecutive years, and almost every year they have to experience a similar slump. Therefore, they still firmly believe that this year is just a repetition of the market rules of previous years, and the final price will rise; Of course, I personally believe that in the long run, the trend of bitcoin will go up, but is it half a year or three to five years? I'm really not sure, because the biggest constant in the world is change. As the saying goes, the flowers are similar year by year, but the people are different year by year. The past experience may not be applicable to the present< Third, domestic policy - gold price killer
I don't know if the Americans have understood that it was not Japan, the United States, Europe, but China that decided the price of bitcoin in 2013. Made in China used to be a headache for foreigners. Now, they also realize the power of China's speculation. China's real estate speculators are like locusts everywhere they go. At present, China's speculators are also rapidly overdrawn the growth value of bitcoin. China, which has 80% of the world's trading volume, explicitly forbids the value of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, so it has no real value in China except for speculation
I believe that the world's understanding of the power of Chinese speculators in bitcoin began with the documents of five ministries and commissions, because before that, almost no organization participated in the international bitcoin conference. After that, many foreign media swarmed in, professional and unprofessional media came. This time, although the documents on April 15 have not been confirmed, the financial times interviewed bitcoin in advance, which shows that they recognize the power of Chinese speculators
why is an Internet proct that started in foreign countries so influenced by China's policies? This is not its main application place, which just reflects that the price of bitcoin is seriously out of its actual value line, artificially pushed up and overdrawn its value. In my opinion, without CCTV's report and China's participation, it would have been good for bitcoin to have a price of more than 1000 last year. It was also e to excessive attention, which created the fastest five ministerial documents in history< 4. Crazy miner - the ultimate price killer
the computing power of bitcoin miner has increased from 1p at the end of last year to more than 30p now. In less than five months, the price of bitcoin miner has dropped from 6000 to 2700 today. In other words, the number of miner has increased dozens of times, from CPU to motherboard, power supply, power supply, etc The chassis and processing costs are all paid in RMB. Just imagine how much cash flow the mining machine has taken from the whole bitcoin ecological chain. Once the cash flows into the hands of TSMC, motherboard factory and others, it will never be kept back. This is also the result of disorderly competition, once profitable, the number will never end! It is said that Shenzhen proces 90% of the world's computing power of mining machines, and each time the chips are streamed, the chips are less than 3.5 million, more than 20.3 million, not to mention the whole machine. A mining machine manufacturer I know in Shenzhen club said that he sold 1000 USB mining machines a minute, which shows the madness
to sum up, all aspects have exerted pressure on cash flow, so the continuous decline of bitcoin in the short term is caused by many reasons. Even without the 4.15 document, I believe a continuous decline process will be formed. As for the bottom, it depends on the belief of those who still hold fast to it and when the crazy mining machine will not continue, And the actual application of bitcoin in foreign countries
those who played with stocks in 2008 may find that bitcoin shares a striking resemblance to the price trend of stocks. If bitcoin goes up from 2000 to 5300, any good news, even an additional issue, will make stocks soar all the time. After that, although the stock surged to the highest point, the downward trend was like "defeat like a mountain". Any bad news would cause a decline. Coupled with the excessive issuance of new shares and serious overdraft of market cash, the a share once fell back to about 1600 points. Although it rebounded to more than 3000 points, it would still jump to about 2000 points. After several years of shock, it did not improve
bitcoin plate is small and easy to rise and fall. However, if the retail investors are excessively injured, bitcoin's loyalty can only be powerless to let bitcoin rise. The false rise of the makers will face a lot of market capital pressure and can only follow the trend
at present, there are several companies in the whole instry that can support short selling, such as fire coin, China bitcoin and okcoin, which also aggravates the dection process
of course, I am still very optimistic about the long-term development of bitcoin, but I really can't see how to break the current deadlock. The purpose of this article is to provide some personal opinions for the majority of small businesses. Maybe you are more in-depth and complete than I think, but finance is nothing more than that

2. Two years ago, bitcoin was considered a fringe technology for liberals and computer geeks. Today, other cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and Ethernet are gaining mainstream recognition. However, the mainstream group is driven by financial speculation rather than the demand for private money and deflationary medium of exchange. The price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, such as ether and Dasey, fell immediately after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Specifically, the price of bitcoin fell by about 16%, while the price of other cryptocurrencies fell by about 25%. However, the price of bitcoin rebounded to the previous high in 18 hours
the reaction of cryptocurrency to the Fed's interest rate increase shows that cryptocurrency is regarded as a safe haven investment against the background of the continuous dilution of the value of major legal currencies. That's why demand for bitcoin has risen in countries where fiat currencies have fallen, such as India and Venezuela
however, if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the market demand for cryptocurrency may decrease. The reason is that when the Fed stops printing new money, there will be less new money flowing into assets such as real estate, stocks and cryptocurrency. As a result, investor demand for anti inflation assets will decline.

3.

In the early morning of January 2, Beijing time, foreign media reported that at the beginning of the new year, the life of bitcoin has been difficult

this is the first time since 2015 that the cryptocurrency has opened a new year in the form of a sharp fall, further aggravating its decline since it hit a record high of $19511 on December 18

The surging trend of

has given birth to a variety of other cryptocurrencies, and also made bitcoin enter the wall street in the form of futures contracts. On December 18, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched for the first time a derivatives agreement that some traders thought would encourage short positions, and bitcoin peaked a few hours later

virtual is always virtual

4. The most direct cause of the crash: the bitcoin exchange MT GOx was attacked by hackers, causing a lot of panic selling of bitcoin by investors
in addition, the underlying reason is that the world does not recognize the monetary payment property of bitcoin, but regards it as an investment commodity similar to gold, and even has large-scale capital participation in speculation.

5.

It's not surprising that bitcoin has dropped by more than 10%, because bitcoin just rose by more than 20% not long ago, so a 10% drop can only be regarded as a correction, not a drop. But what's the fundamental reason for bitcoin's decline? Now I'd like to talk about my personal views and ideas on the issue of bitcoin for your reference and discussion only

summary of problems

the reason for bitcoin's collapse is that it rose too fast, so it led to a significant correction. It's not surprising. After all, no commodity can continue to rise, and bitcoin is the same. If you think bitcoin can still rise, I won't express my opinion, but you have to think of today's collapse, Because it is very likely that one day, you will also encounter the same slump of 10% or more as today, so investment should be cautious, especially for this kind of virtual investment procts. If you are not careful, you may lose your fortune. The above is my personal views and ideas, for your reference and discussion only

6.

The sharp drop in the price of bitcoin will affect the stock market, and the funds that buy bitcoin and the blocks related to blockchain will fall e to the sharp drop in the price of bitcoin

with the continuous development of science and technology and the emergence of emerging instries, bitcoin, as an emerging instry, has attracted the attention of many people. Bitcoin has increased tens of thousands of times in more than ten years, which makes many people feel incredible. Bitcoin has also become a symbol of wealth in everyone's mind. The sharp drop in the price of bitcoin will have an impact on the stock market, especially on the bitcoin funds and blockchain technology, which are closely related to bitcoin. The sharp drop in bitcoin will also cause investors' losses

7. Yes, it can always be invested.

8. There are all kinds of news reports,
the Hong Kong bitcoin exchange has closed down, with us $386 million of customers' funds missing,
this is another runaway

9. At the end of May, bitcoin hit a new high this year after a sustained surge. It began to reverse on May 25 and 26, with a sharp drop of $900, or more than 30%; China's bitcoin price also fell back to about 14000 yuan, and fluctuated around 14700 yuan today. Interestingly, the reporter noticed that the exchange rate of RMB away from the onshore market is rising

10.

According to

crypto cred, this situation may indicate that there is not enough momentum to do long in the market

in addition, crypto cred also believes that the consolidation of bitcoin in the previous three months is a range consolidation, not a triangle consolidation, so once the horizontal support line is broken, the market sentiment will become very pessimistic

crypto cred also pointed out that in the daily K-line chart of bitcoin in September, the closing price of 24 days was lower than that of the previous day, which also showed that the whole trend was developing in a bad direction

Future trend, how to develop< p> Ledger status points out that bitcoin's stepping back into the $8000 or even lower range is likely to prepare for future actions

he believes that bulls need to take back several key positions first. First, bitcoin needs to go back above $8400, which is the 200 day moving average

he explained that if the price of bitcoin could get back to $8400, it could rise rapidly and retest $9400. After that, if bitcoin can further break through the previous integration range, it is very likely to create a new annual high

However, unfortunately, the 200 day moving average is becoming a strong resistance line. If bitcoin fails to break through this position, it is likely to go further down to the low of $6000

however, ledger status also points out that even if bitcoin goes further down to $6000, technically speaking, the long-term bullish trend has not been broken. He said,

"I remain bullish for a long time, unless bitcoin falls below its 200 week moving average (currently about $4600 and is still climbing), which marks the bottom of the first two bear markets."

finally, ledger status said that if the price of bitcoin can rebound above the 200 day and 20 week moving average, it will be quite optimistic for the market

up to now, the price of bitcoin is US $8070.5, and the market value of bitcoin accounts for about 67.1% of the total market value of the whole cryptocurrency