The impact of CME online BTC futures on the market
Publish: 2021-04-18 01:44:45
1.
Now the popular digital currency futures is bitcoin futures. On December 11, 2017, Beijing time, CBOE launched the bitcoin futures XBT, and the market reaction was hot, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism many times. CME of Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched bitcoin futures BTC on December 18, 2017, which brought about great fluctuation
the two major bitcoin futures procts have the following similarities and differences, which are worth noting:
1. XBT unit is 1 bitcoin, BTC is 5 bitcoins
The minimum price change: XBT is $10 / bitcoin, BTC is $5 / bitcoin XBT trading time is from 7:00 on Monday to 6:00 on Saturday, Beijing time; BCT trading time is from 7:00 on Monday to 4:15 on Saturday, Beijing time4. The position limit was 5000
Price circuit breaker mechanism: XBT price fluctuates more than 10% of the previous day's closing price, trading is suspended for 2 minutes, more than 20%, trading is suspended for 5 minutes; The BTC price fluctuates more than 7% or 13% of the closing price of the previous day, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism. The specific suspension time has not been disclosed. If it exceeds 20%, the trading will stop XBT requires 44% initial margin, which is about 2 times leverage; BTC Requires 35% of the initial margin, which is about 3 times the leverage. It is worth noting that both exchanges have indicated that the margin amount can be adjusted according to the actual situation2.
The rapid rise of bitcoin's price comes from the fact that its use value is graally recognized by popular business services such as green ecology. For example, Jack Dorsey, the founder of Twitter and square, made a high-profile promotion and planning of BTC in Silicon Valley in the United States, which is also called the original ecological currency of the next generation Internet technology, and announced the purchase of $50 million BTC< naturally, apart from the Internet technology circle, it is also like the BTC Private Fund released by grayscale, a financial enterprise, which helps traditional financial enterprises get BTC financial planning
at present, the total position cost of BTC commodity futures is about 6.3 billion, which has increased 133% since the beginning of this year and constantly updated new historical records. Unlike the spot trading market, the increase of non compulsory position closing trading position of derivative procts in zero sum game indicates the contradiction level between buyers and sellers on spot trading base price
3.
Bitcoin is no stranger to a person who loves to invest. In 2008, bitcoin still appeared in our view at a very low price. But 18 years later, the price of bitcoin began to soar, and soon broke through the 10000 yuan mark. Now, bitcoin has exceeded 100000 yuan each, and bitcoin is not a real capital or material property, but a virtual currency. In the Internet, the value of such a virtual currency has been speculation above 100000 yuan. What is behind such madness
Some people also take advantage of this loophole to buy virtual currency abroad in the way of RMB, and finally cash out through trading, which is also a violation of China's foreign exchange system. Such a practice will undoubtedly lead to fire and even prison. Of course, the price of bitcoin is so high nowadays that most of the people who can afford to buy bitcoin are economic tycoons, and there will be no retail investors taking over< br />4.
The delivery date of CME bitcoin futures is the last Friday of the e month, 4:00 p.m. London time. In case of holidays, one day in advance
2. The delivery date of CBOE bitcoin futures is the first two trading days of the third Friday of the maturity month, 2:45 p.m. Chicago time
extended information:
bitcoin trading scam:
1. At the end of October 2013, Hong Kong GBL platform absconded with money, with more than 20 million yuan missing. The program of this trading website is very poor. It doesn't use SSL security protocol, and even the user name is stored in clear text. They don't have some basic programming knowledge. GBL relies on the broker to develop the new customer's "quasi MLM" mode
On October 22, 2013, looking at the market of bitcoin, Mr. Qiao, a citizen of Dongyang, searched GBL company, a bitcoin trading platform, on the Internet, and recharged 90000 yuan to buy and sell bitcoin through a third-party payment. On October 26, 2013, it was found that the staff of the online trading platform were not online, and some normal trading proceres could not be implemented. It was found that the registered address of the company was false after a check, and a total of 90000 yuan was cheated3 and Western economists have a lot of worries about the current economic bubble phenomenon of bitcoin. Australian Economist John Quiggin called bitcoin "the purest example of the economic bubble." p>
5. In terms of the procts, the essence is futures contract and option contract, which are two different procts. At present, there are sugar futures, soybean meal futures and options procts based on these two procts in China. The copper options of the previous period are also being simulated. If you are interested, you can learn about them.
6. Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange is the largest futures exchange in the United States and the second largest exchange in the world for trading futures and futures option contracts. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange provides investors with a number of financial and agricultural transactions. Since its establishment in 1898, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has continued to provide a market with risk management tools to protect investors from the risks brought about by changes in the prices of financial procts and tangible commodities, and to give them the opportunity to profit from trading.
7.
On December 11, 2017, Beijing time, CBOE of Chicago Board Options Exchange launched the XBT of bitcoin futures. The market reaction was hot and the circuit breaker mechanism was triggered many times. CME of Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched BTC of bitcoin futures on December 18, 2017, which brought about great fluctuation
8. First of all, futures is a standardized contract, which is equivalent to a forward standardized contract. The buyer and the seller sign a supply and marketing contract, and delivery is required when the contract expires. Therefore, the price is based on the spot, and there is a process of price regression
now many enterprises do hedging, whether it is upstream proction, intermediate processing, or downstream sales, can lock in the price profit through the futures market, so as to avoid the risk of price fluctuation. Of course, this process can not eliminate the risk, but only transfer the risk to speculators
as a market reflecting the future price of commodities, how does futures market affect the development of the instry? Combined with China's experience, the impact of futures market on soybean instry is highlighted in the following aspects:
(1) the price signal of soybean futures market has become the "wind vane" affecting China's soybean planting
the emergence of soybean futures market has an important impact on the main soybean procing areas. In the past, farmers' habit and management mode of planting and selling grain relying on their feelings, experience and following the trend of the times are changing; The government's guidance on agricultural proction has also changed from simply focusing on proction to paying equal attention to both proction and market; Under the guidance of market price, farmers and enterprises are more closely linked, and the degree of organization of agricultural proction is improving
according to a survey concted in 2008, farmers in the main soybean procing areas in Northeast China have paid attention to the futures market by 58.24%. At the same time, with the graal use of the futures market, 39% of the farmers have a certain degree of change in the time and rhythm of grain sales. In addition, the vast majority of farmers who pay attention to the futures market think that using the futures market can bring many benefits to themselves, and 14.92% of farmers said that they have increased their income< (2) soybean futures market provides opportunities for soybean proction, processing and trade-related enterprises to take advantage of the market development
for procers, the futures market can be used to "sell first and then grow"; For trade and processing enterprises, futures market provides them with the opportunity to sign forward contracts, eliminating the uncertainty of proction and trade. This change enables the former to completely shift its focus to the effectiveness of increasing proction, and the latter to realize the expansion of market scale and continuous improvement of efficiency by transferring risks and improving capital operation ability< (3) futures market provides a platform and tool for soybean enterprises to avoid risks
the soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil futures contracts of big commercial exchanges constitute a complete contract portfolio of soybean instry chain with strong liquidity, which provides a good platform for hedging and risk aversion of spot enterprises such as soybean processing and trade, and becomes an indicator for enterprises to adjust their business strategies and directions. According to our survey, at present, all kinds of enterprises in China's soybean instry chain generally have a high degree of reference to futures prices, with an average of 85.94%, among which traders have the highest degree of reference to futures prices, reaching 93.85%
at the same time, the degree of participation in the soybean futures market by the main bodies of China's soybean instry is constantly improving, and the number of entrepreneurs participating in the futures market is increasing. In 2008, the number of soybean No.1 contract alone reached 2658, of which more than half were circulation enterprises, and their participation in soybean futures trading accounted for 62.41% of the total trading volume of all enterprises
e to the use of futures instruments, the anti risk ability of China's soybean instry has graally improved. Last year, facing the impact of the international financial crisis, most enterprises used futures tools to effectively avoid risks. According to market statistics at that time, most of the major domestic oil and fat enterprises were hedging in the futures market, so they escaped the impact. Only in October 2008, the top 20 soybean enterprises participating in futures hedging made a profit of 1.041 billion yuan on soybean futures, which made up for the loss of spot operation< (4) futures market provides strong financial support for soybean instry and saves transaction costs
the establishment of soybean futures market provides a new channel for financial institutions to support the development of soybean instry. The loan support and warehouse receipt pledge provided by financial institutions to the forward soybean supply contract signed by the farm greatly improved the capital operation ability of soybean related instries; Some oil, oil and feed enterprises use the physical delivery channel of futures market to rece their operating costs. In the past, oil extraction enterprises in the south of Shandong mostly imported soybean for proction and processing. Over the years, the development of the futures market has graally changed this situation. According to statistics, since the establishment of soybean futures market, more than 8 million tons of soybean physical delivery have been completed, which directly promoted the circulation of soybean spot market. In 2006, under the guidance and drive of Dalian futures market, more than 1 million tons of Northeast Soybean (including the non spot delivery part) went south through Dalian, which effectively promoted the transportation of North soybean to South and alleviated the backlog of Heilongjiang soybean to a certain extent< (5) the open and transparent information of futures market promotes the unification of soybean spot market
e to the transparency, centralization and authority of futures price information, it has a great influence on the spot market. According to the calculation, in the absence of futures market, it will take half a month for the price fluctuation information of the international soybean market and the soybean market in the sales area to transmit to the grassroots traders, and it will take about a week for the traders to get to the farmers. With the soybean futures market, traders and farmers can get the price of soybean in the international and regional markets through the futures market on the same day. Generally, soybean growers can understand the change of market price in the next day or two. With the development of futures market and the expansion of its influence, the price difference between soybean procing and selling areas is shrinking< At present, there is a strong positive correlation between soybean futures prices of big commercial exchanges and soybean prices of major international futures exchanges and international spot markets. In the interaction of domestic and foreign futures markets, "China factor" is integrated into the international soybean trade price through the influence of futures markets. As the largest soybean demand country in the world, China's supply and demand changes and the corresponding purchasing behavior have a significant impact on the world soybean instry
according to statistics, Dalian soybean futures price in 2008 is highly correlated with CME soybean futures price and spot soybean prices in the United States, Argentina and Brazil, with correlation coefficients of 0.9732, 0.9568, 0.9579 and 0.9039 respectively. The research also shows that soybean futures contracts of big commercial exchanges have obvious transmission effect on CME soybean futures contracts in terms of profit margin and risk volatility
at present, relying on China's status as a major soybean procer and consumer, Dalian Commodity Exchange has become the largest non genetically modified soybean futures market in the world, and China's non genetically modified soybean has its own price discovery center. In the international market, non genetically modified soybean consumers pay close attention to Dalian soybean trading, and Dalian soybean futures price has become one of the representative prices in the global market. We will fully learn from the successful experience of the futures market development of developed countries, continue to explore and innovate, and make greater contributions to promoting the development of China's soybean instry.
now many enterprises do hedging, whether it is upstream proction, intermediate processing, or downstream sales, can lock in the price profit through the futures market, so as to avoid the risk of price fluctuation. Of course, this process can not eliminate the risk, but only transfer the risk to speculators
as a market reflecting the future price of commodities, how does futures market affect the development of the instry? Combined with China's experience, the impact of futures market on soybean instry is highlighted in the following aspects:
(1) the price signal of soybean futures market has become the "wind vane" affecting China's soybean planting
the emergence of soybean futures market has an important impact on the main soybean procing areas. In the past, farmers' habit and management mode of planting and selling grain relying on their feelings, experience and following the trend of the times are changing; The government's guidance on agricultural proction has also changed from simply focusing on proction to paying equal attention to both proction and market; Under the guidance of market price, farmers and enterprises are more closely linked, and the degree of organization of agricultural proction is improving
according to a survey concted in 2008, farmers in the main soybean procing areas in Northeast China have paid attention to the futures market by 58.24%. At the same time, with the graal use of the futures market, 39% of the farmers have a certain degree of change in the time and rhythm of grain sales. In addition, the vast majority of farmers who pay attention to the futures market think that using the futures market can bring many benefits to themselves, and 14.92% of farmers said that they have increased their income< (2) soybean futures market provides opportunities for soybean proction, processing and trade-related enterprises to take advantage of the market development
for procers, the futures market can be used to "sell first and then grow"; For trade and processing enterprises, futures market provides them with the opportunity to sign forward contracts, eliminating the uncertainty of proction and trade. This change enables the former to completely shift its focus to the effectiveness of increasing proction, and the latter to realize the expansion of market scale and continuous improvement of efficiency by transferring risks and improving capital operation ability< (3) futures market provides a platform and tool for soybean enterprises to avoid risks
the soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil futures contracts of big commercial exchanges constitute a complete contract portfolio of soybean instry chain with strong liquidity, which provides a good platform for hedging and risk aversion of spot enterprises such as soybean processing and trade, and becomes an indicator for enterprises to adjust their business strategies and directions. According to our survey, at present, all kinds of enterprises in China's soybean instry chain generally have a high degree of reference to futures prices, with an average of 85.94%, among which traders have the highest degree of reference to futures prices, reaching 93.85%
at the same time, the degree of participation in the soybean futures market by the main bodies of China's soybean instry is constantly improving, and the number of entrepreneurs participating in the futures market is increasing. In 2008, the number of soybean No.1 contract alone reached 2658, of which more than half were circulation enterprises, and their participation in soybean futures trading accounted for 62.41% of the total trading volume of all enterprises
e to the use of futures instruments, the anti risk ability of China's soybean instry has graally improved. Last year, facing the impact of the international financial crisis, most enterprises used futures tools to effectively avoid risks. According to market statistics at that time, most of the major domestic oil and fat enterprises were hedging in the futures market, so they escaped the impact. Only in October 2008, the top 20 soybean enterprises participating in futures hedging made a profit of 1.041 billion yuan on soybean futures, which made up for the loss of spot operation< (4) futures market provides strong financial support for soybean instry and saves transaction costs
the establishment of soybean futures market provides a new channel for financial institutions to support the development of soybean instry. The loan support and warehouse receipt pledge provided by financial institutions to the forward soybean supply contract signed by the farm greatly improved the capital operation ability of soybean related instries; Some oil, oil and feed enterprises use the physical delivery channel of futures market to rece their operating costs. In the past, oil extraction enterprises in the south of Shandong mostly imported soybean for proction and processing. Over the years, the development of the futures market has graally changed this situation. According to statistics, since the establishment of soybean futures market, more than 8 million tons of soybean physical delivery have been completed, which directly promoted the circulation of soybean spot market. In 2006, under the guidance and drive of Dalian futures market, more than 1 million tons of Northeast Soybean (including the non spot delivery part) went south through Dalian, which effectively promoted the transportation of North soybean to South and alleviated the backlog of Heilongjiang soybean to a certain extent< (5) the open and transparent information of futures market promotes the unification of soybean spot market
e to the transparency, centralization and authority of futures price information, it has a great influence on the spot market. According to the calculation, in the absence of futures market, it will take half a month for the price fluctuation information of the international soybean market and the soybean market in the sales area to transmit to the grassroots traders, and it will take about a week for the traders to get to the farmers. With the soybean futures market, traders and farmers can get the price of soybean in the international and regional markets through the futures market on the same day. Generally, soybean growers can understand the change of market price in the next day or two. With the development of futures market and the expansion of its influence, the price difference between soybean procing and selling areas is shrinking< At present, there is a strong positive correlation between soybean futures prices of big commercial exchanges and soybean prices of major international futures exchanges and international spot markets. In the interaction of domestic and foreign futures markets, "China factor" is integrated into the international soybean trade price through the influence of futures markets. As the largest soybean demand country in the world, China's supply and demand changes and the corresponding purchasing behavior have a significant impact on the world soybean instry
according to statistics, Dalian soybean futures price in 2008 is highly correlated with CME soybean futures price and spot soybean prices in the United States, Argentina and Brazil, with correlation coefficients of 0.9732, 0.9568, 0.9579 and 0.9039 respectively. The research also shows that soybean futures contracts of big commercial exchanges have obvious transmission effect on CME soybean futures contracts in terms of profit margin and risk volatility
at present, relying on China's status as a major soybean procer and consumer, Dalian Commodity Exchange has become the largest non genetically modified soybean futures market in the world, and China's non genetically modified soybean has its own price discovery center. In the international market, non genetically modified soybean consumers pay close attention to Dalian soybean trading, and Dalian soybean futures price has become one of the representative prices in the global market. We will fully learn from the successful experience of the futures market development of developed countries, continue to explore and innovate, and make greater contributions to promoting the development of China's soybean instry.
9. 1、 The development process of the futures market
the development of the international futures market has roughly gone through the process from commodity futures to financial futures, with increasing trading varieties and expanding trading scale
(1) Commodity Futures - futures contracts whose subject matter is physical commodities
1. Agricultural futures: the birth of CBOT in 1848 and the launch of standardized contract in 1865< br />1. Grain Futures - wheat, corn, soybean
2 Cash crops - cotton, coffee, cocoa
3 Livestock and poultry procts - butter, eggs, live pigs, live cattle, pork belly
4 Forest procts wood and natural rubber 2. Metal Futures: the London Metal Exchange (LME) was established in 1876, which was the first time to trade metal futures. At that time, the name was London Metal Exchange Company, mainly engaged in copper and tin futures trading< br />1. London Metal Exchange (LME) - copper (international pricing power), tin, lead, zinc, aluminum, nickel, silver
2 COMEX - Gold (launched in 1974, international pricing power), silver, copper, aluminum
3. Energy futures: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, propane
1 New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
2 London International Petroleum Exchange (IPE)
(2) financial futures
at present, financial futures have occupied a dominant position in the international futures market< In May 1972, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) established the international monetary market division (IMM) and launched the foreign exchange futures contract for the first time< In October 1975, the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT) listed the National Mortgage Association bond (GNMA) futures contract, which is the first interest rate futures contract in the world< In August 1977, the U.S. long-term treasury bond futures contract was listed on the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT), which is one of the most traded financial futures contracts in the international futures market< In February 1982, KCBT developed the value line composite index futures contract< (3) futures options
1 On October 1, 1982, the long-term treasury bond futures option contract was listed on the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT)< br />2. Both options trading and futures trading have the function of risk aversion and hedging, but futures trading mainly provides hedging channels for spot traders, while options trading has the function of risk aversion for both spot traders and futures traders< br />3. At present, most of the futures trading varieties in the international futures market have introced the option trading method< br />4. At present, the basic situation of the international futures market is: Commodity Futures remain stable, financial futures come from behind, and futures options (power and money trading) are in the ascendant (CBOE)
5 CBOE is the largest options exchange in the world< Second, the development trend of the international futures market
in the early 1970s, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the floating exchange rate system replaced the fixed exchange rate system, and the world economic structure has undergone profound changes, with the development trend of monetization, financialization, liberalization and integration of the market economy (the result of electronization), with frequent fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices, Financial futures came into being, making the international futures market present a rapid development trend, which has the following characteristics:
1 Futures centers are increasingly concentrated - international centers: Chicago, New York, London, Tokyo; Regional centers: Continental Europe, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea
the development of international futures markets is reflected in the increase of trading varieties, active trading, large trading volume, wide radiation and strong influence< br />1. The market scale is growing
2 The growth rate of global trading volume is very fast< br />3. The trading volume is increasing rapidly< br />4. The rapid growth of global futures and options trading volume mainly comes from exchanges outside the United States< br />5. The development of financial futures is unstoppable
in the global trading volume of futures and options in 2006, the proportion of financial futures and options is as high as 91%, while the proportion of commodity futures and options is only 9%< br />1. In 2000, the total amount of global options (spot options and futures options) trading exceeded that of futures trading for the first time
in futures trading, whether buying or selling futures, the high risk and high return are symmetrical, that is, the buyer and seller may win or lose a lot. However, in option trading, the two are separated< br />1. The rapid development of online merger (reasons: 1. Economic globalization 2. Increasingly fierce competition 3. Rapid development of OTC trading)
Eurex is now the largest futures exchange in the world< br />1. Continuous innovation of trading methods: open bidding and electronic trading
2 The service quality has been continuously improved
3 Reform and listing has become a trend, which is rooted in competition
at the end of 2000, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) became the first corporate exchange in the United States
other famous exchanges: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, NASDAQ.
the development of the international futures market has roughly gone through the process from commodity futures to financial futures, with increasing trading varieties and expanding trading scale
(1) Commodity Futures - futures contracts whose subject matter is physical commodities
1. Agricultural futures: the birth of CBOT in 1848 and the launch of standardized contract in 1865< br />1. Grain Futures - wheat, corn, soybean
2 Cash crops - cotton, coffee, cocoa
3 Livestock and poultry procts - butter, eggs, live pigs, live cattle, pork belly
4 Forest procts wood and natural rubber 2. Metal Futures: the London Metal Exchange (LME) was established in 1876, which was the first time to trade metal futures. At that time, the name was London Metal Exchange Company, mainly engaged in copper and tin futures trading< br />1. London Metal Exchange (LME) - copper (international pricing power), tin, lead, zinc, aluminum, nickel, silver
2 COMEX - Gold (launched in 1974, international pricing power), silver, copper, aluminum
3. Energy futures: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, propane
1 New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
2 London International Petroleum Exchange (IPE)
(2) financial futures
at present, financial futures have occupied a dominant position in the international futures market< In May 1972, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) established the international monetary market division (IMM) and launched the foreign exchange futures contract for the first time< In October 1975, the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT) listed the National Mortgage Association bond (GNMA) futures contract, which is the first interest rate futures contract in the world< In August 1977, the U.S. long-term treasury bond futures contract was listed on the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT), which is one of the most traded financial futures contracts in the international futures market< In February 1982, KCBT developed the value line composite index futures contract< (3) futures options
1 On October 1, 1982, the long-term treasury bond futures option contract was listed on the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT)< br />2. Both options trading and futures trading have the function of risk aversion and hedging, but futures trading mainly provides hedging channels for spot traders, while options trading has the function of risk aversion for both spot traders and futures traders< br />3. At present, most of the futures trading varieties in the international futures market have introced the option trading method< br />4. At present, the basic situation of the international futures market is: Commodity Futures remain stable, financial futures come from behind, and futures options (power and money trading) are in the ascendant (CBOE)
5 CBOE is the largest options exchange in the world< Second, the development trend of the international futures market
in the early 1970s, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the floating exchange rate system replaced the fixed exchange rate system, and the world economic structure has undergone profound changes, with the development trend of monetization, financialization, liberalization and integration of the market economy (the result of electronization), with frequent fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices, Financial futures came into being, making the international futures market present a rapid development trend, which has the following characteristics:
1 Futures centers are increasingly concentrated - international centers: Chicago, New York, London, Tokyo; Regional centers: Continental Europe, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea
the development of international futures markets is reflected in the increase of trading varieties, active trading, large trading volume, wide radiation and strong influence< br />1. The market scale is growing
2 The growth rate of global trading volume is very fast< br />3. The trading volume is increasing rapidly< br />4. The rapid growth of global futures and options trading volume mainly comes from exchanges outside the United States< br />5. The development of financial futures is unstoppable
in the global trading volume of futures and options in 2006, the proportion of financial futures and options is as high as 91%, while the proportion of commodity futures and options is only 9%< br />1. In 2000, the total amount of global options (spot options and futures options) trading exceeded that of futures trading for the first time
in futures trading, whether buying or selling futures, the high risk and high return are symmetrical, that is, the buyer and seller may win or lose a lot. However, in option trading, the two are separated< br />1. The rapid development of online merger (reasons: 1. Economic globalization 2. Increasingly fierce competition 3. Rapid development of OTC trading)
Eurex is now the largest futures exchange in the world< br />1. Continuous innovation of trading methods: open bidding and electronic trading
2 The service quality has been continuously improved
3 Reform and listing has become a trend, which is rooted in competition
at the end of 2000, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) became the first corporate exchange in the United States
other famous exchanges: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, NASDAQ.
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