World financial crisis and BTC
Why do banks hate bitcoin so much? The important reason is that one of the major goals of bitcoin is to become a new currency in the digital era, or even a new "general equivalent". Although the scope of application is still limited, bitcoin payment has been accepted in some fields, and because of its transaction properties and potential value-added space, bitcoin has been sought after by a new generation of investors. In the United States, some people have concluded that the "old people" love the stock market, and the millennials love bitcoin. This is no doubt a bad sign for banks. They seem to be worried about losing their future
at present, bitcoin and its transactions are not regulated. Compared with banks that are still strictly regulated by the government, bitcoin has a strong competitive advantage, which also makes the banking instry nervous. Once more people hold and accept bitcoin and other blockchain e-coins, it will become a natural logic to trade with them, which will form capital flow outside the existing banking system, which is undoubtedly a major blow to the banking instry
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in addition, national crises are:
seven times in the United States (1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1957-1958, 1960-1961, 1969-1970, 1973-1975, 1980-1982)
seven times in Japan (1954, 1957-1958, 1962, 1965, 1970-1971, 1973-1975, 1981)
seven times in Federal Germany (1952, 1958, 1961, 1966-1967, 1971, 1974-1975 1980-1982)
France 5 times (1952-1953, 1958-1959, 1964-1965, 1974-1975, 1980-1982)
Britain 7 times (1951-1952, 1957-1958, 1961-1962, 1966, 1971-1972, 1973-1975, 1979-1982)
1890-1893, German economic crisis
in the summer of 1899, a financial crisis swept Russia, and then instrial proction fell into crisis
Japan's first economic crisis broke out in 1900< In October 1929, the situation of New York Wall Street stock market took a sharp turn and the stock price plummeted. The stock market collapsed and caused an economic crisis
the world economic crisis from 1957 to 1958 occurred in the benign cycle of international economy from the end of World War II to the collapse of Bretton Woods system. After the overall economic growth of Europe and Japan, they are no longer satisfied with the dominance of the US dollar. So there was the "Bretton Woods conference" exchange rate negotiations, and even Europe's efforts from the pursuit of a unified market to the pursuit of a unified currency. During this period, the share of the US dollar in the total international currency graally decreased to 3 / 5
in December 1973, the largest and deepest world economic crisis after World War II broke out< In 1982 and 1983, Vietnam experienced an economic crisis
since the end of 1989, Japanese stock and real estate prices have plummeted, and enterprises and banks have closed down
the collapse of the US NASDAQ index in April 2000 marked the arrival of the great depression< In 2008, the global economic crisis.
1. The U.S. financial crisis has evolved from the Wall Street storm caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis into a global financial crisis. The rapid development, large quantity and huge influence of this process can be said to be unexpected
Generally speaking, it can be divided into three stages: the first stage is the debt crisis, which is caused by the failure to repay the principal and interest on time. The second stage is the liquidity crisisas a result of the debt crisis, some financial institutions concerned are unable to have sufficient liquidity in time to meet the demand of creditors for cash. The third stage is credit crisis. That is to say, people have doubts about financial activities based on credit, resulting in such a crisis
At the beginning of Hong Kong's return to China in 1997, the Asian financial crisis broke out. From mid July to August 1998, international financial speculators attacked the Hong Kong dollar three times and took actions in the foreign exchange, stock and futures markets at the same time. They used financial futures to buy Hong Kong dollars with three or six months' Hong Kong dollar futures contracts, and then quickly short them, resulting in a sharp rise in the interest rate of Hong Kong dollars and a sharp drop in the Hang Seng Index International financial crisis and International Contagion of financial crisis caused by external factors are not new phenomena in recent years. In 1873, the German and Austrian economy prospered, attracting capital to stay at home, and the external credit stopped suddenly, which led to the difficulties of American J. cook company In 1890, Barings Brothers investment bank in London had a payment crisis on Argentina's debt. In addition, the financial crisis in New York in October of that year led to a series of business failures in London. Barings Bank almost closed down in November of that year. It was only under the assistance of the syndicated guarantee fund led by William Liddell, President of the Bank of England that Barings Brothers investment bank was sparedas a result, British loans to South Africa, Australia, the United States and other Latin American countries decreased sharply, resulting in the economic crisis in these countries and regions lasting until 1893
In June 1997, a financial crisis broke out in Asia, and its development process is very complicated. By the end of 1998, it can be divided into three stages: from June to December in 1997; January 1998 to July 1998; From July to the end of 1998 There are many reasons for the outbreak of the financial crisis in 1997. Chinese scholars generally believe that it can be divided into direct trigger factors, internal basic factors and world economic factors Global financial crisis 2007-2008 global financial crisis, also known as financial tsunami, credit crisis and Wall Street tsunami, is a financial crisis that began to emerge on August 9, 2007. Since the outbreak of the subprime housing credit crisis, investors began to lose confidence in the value of mortgage-backed securities, causing a liquidity crisiseven if the central banks of many countries inject huge amount of funds into the financial market for many times, it can not prevent the outbreak of the financial crisis. Until 2008, the financial crisis began to get out of control, and led to the collapse of a number of fairly large financial institutions or government takeover
the financial tsunami in the United States and the United States has caused the global financial crisis. From 1922 to 2009, the global economy has experienced three major crises. In the past 50 years, we have also experienced several small economic fluctuations, which we call "three economic austerity countries". The subprime mortgage crisis is a new type of financial crisis, The internal mechanism is that the transparency of financial procts is insufficient, information asymmetry, financial risk is graally transferred and amplified to investors. These risks spread from the housing market to the credit market and capital market, from the financial sector to the economic sector, and from the United States to the world through investment channels and capital channels< According to the majority opinion of international economic circles, although the subprime mortgage crisis has a certain impact on the world economy, it can not be judged that it will lead to a global economic crisis. The IMF recently said that the situation of international financial market turbulence is still in progress; Within the control range;. However, a few people believe that the subprime crisis may lead to the reversal of the current round of world economic prosperity cycle. Soros believes that the subprime crisis is the most serious financial crisis in 60 years since the Second World War, and it is the end of the era of US dollar as the world currency. Martin wolf, a critic of the financial times, regards the subprime crisis as a crisis in the Anglo Saxon financial system. Roubini, an American economist, believes that the Fed's continuous interest rate cuts are difficult to prevent the US economy from falling into recession
based on the data, the author believes that the possibility of world economic recession exists. As the subprime mortgage crisis has not yet bottomed out, its uncertainty risk is more worthy of vigilance, and its impact on the global economy and finance should not be underestimated<
excess liquidity and subprime crisis
after four consecutive years of rapid growth, the world economy showed signs of adjustment in 2007. The pressure of slowing economic growth and the threat of inflation cast a shadow on the prospects of the world economy. The overflowing liquidity promotes the growth of the world economy, and also helps to increase the asset prices of global commodity and financial markets. The high price makes inflation spread all over the world; Excessive liquidity has magnified the & quot; risk of global investors; Confidence & quot;, The expansion of global credit. Fundamentally speaking, the root of the subprime crisis lies in the time lag of monetary tightening policy and the global excess liquidity
time lag of monetary tightening policy
& quot; September 11 Incident & quot; After that, the economic growth of the United States slowed down. In order to stimulate economic growth, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 13 times in a row, recing them to 1% one by one. Although this has stimulated economic growth, its side effects can not be ignored. On the one hand, the low real interest rate inflates domestic credit, especially real estate loans, and increases the supply of US dollars; On the other hand, low interest rates devalue the US dollar, laying a hidden danger for global liquidity flooding< In fact, the real reason for the outbreak of the subprime crisis lies in the time lag effect of the US monetary tightening policy. In response to the overheating performance of high housing prices and high economy, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for 17 consecutive times, and the benchmark interest rate has been raised from 1% to 5.25%. With the continuous increase of interest rates in the United States, the cumulative effect of the policy graally accumulated precipitation, making customers with poor credit rating unable to bear the burden of loans. In order to avoid the further increase of bad debts, the lending institutions tighten the monetary policy, which worsens the financial situation of the loan customers. The intensified bad debts are transmitted to the global financial markets and investors through the securitization chain, which eventually leads to the sudden outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis<
global excess liquidity
the reason for the extremely serious impact of the crisis is global excess liquidity. The imbalance of global economy, the devaluation of the US dollar, the low interest policy and the extensive use of financial derivatives are the main reasons for the flooding of global liquidity. For the sub-prime loan market, the general lending institutions will adopt & quot; Loaning & quot; The principle of the law. Originally, the credit rating of its loan customers is poor, but in the context of global oversupply of funds, through the means of sub-prime securitization, the loan institutions get sufficient sources of funds, while the continuous rise of house prices makes the loan institutions ignore the risk and wantonly rece the loan audit standards. The rection of loan standards, the excessive expansion of loan scale, and then transmitted to investors all over the world who invest in U.S. subprime mortgage securities through the securities market, eventually become a potential global financial risk< In order to stimulate the economy, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates many times and relaxed financial regulation at the same time: on the one hand, it has lowered credit standards and encouraged commercial banks to lend to borrowers with low credit rating; On the other hand, financial institutions are allowed to invest in high-risk assets with low-cost loans, and investment banks are allowed to design complex and highly leveraged derivatives to provide customers in order to expand the source of profits. Derivatives market not only provides liquidity and spreads risk, but also makes all kinds of financial institutions tied together by liquidity; Once there is a problem in one link of the chain, it will cause a chain reaction< With the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, more dominoes began to fall. The market also began to go to the other extreme, abundant funds seem to disappear overnight. The U.S. economy is facing a series of problems, such as inflation, shrinking real estate market and credit crunch. The crisis did not stop in the financial market, but affected the real economy through multiple channels<
the end of American economic growth model; US dollar expansion, capital market expansion, double deficit Expansion & quot; The end of the national debt growth model. In the past five years, the factors driving the rise of real estate prices in the United States are neither the expansion of total social wealth, the widening gap between the rich and the poor, double-digit inflation (such as Russia), nor the influx of large numbers of immigrants (such as New Zealand), nor the rapid economic growth, population urbanization, and the scarcity of land supply (such as China), but purely the result of financial innovation; False demand;, Therefore, the outbreak of the crisis on the U.S. real estate demand is no different from & quot; The bottom line is the bottom line
on the surface, the recession caused by the subprime mortgage crisis is the consumption downturn and economic slowdown caused by credit contraction. But behind the crisis are all & quot; Global financial institutions borrow money to help low - and middle-income Americans buy houses; The end of America's debt / consumption model. For a long time, the United States has been based on double deficits, not only by borrowing money to maintain domestic consumption, but also by borrowing money to maintain domestic investment. Its overall consumption of wealth is far beyond the scope of wealth creation ability. Although the subprime debt and related financial innovation bring the American prosperity model of debt growth to the extreme, it also marks that the 27 year long prosperity model, which is based on the external expansion of US dollar credit and the internal expansion of US capital market since the Reagan era, is likely to be unsustainable through huge fiscal deficit, trade deficit and attracting international capital inflow<
the U.S. economy has fallen into recession
it seems certain that the subprime mortgage crisis has led to the U.S. economy falling into recession, and the only uncertainty is the extent of the recession< At the beginning of 2008, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 125 basis points in just eight days; On March 18, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by another 75 basis points, recing the federal funds rate to 2.25%. However, this kind of regulation can only slow down the turbulence of the global financial market in the short term, and it is difficult to reverse the economic decline of the United States in the long term. It is rare in history that interest rates have been cut by a large margin in a row, which shows that there are serious problems in the US economy
at present, the more objective forecast is that the economic growth rate of the United States will only be 2% in 2008, which is far lower than the forecast value of 3.1% at the end of 2007. A series of economic data recently released also show that the subprime mortgage crisis is still worsening, spilling over to all aspects of the U.S. economy and impacting the overall trend of the U.S. economy. With the cooling of the housing market, the worsening of the subprime mortgage crisis and the slowdown of economic growth, the unemployment rate in the United States has risen sharply recently, which has become the most direct sign that the U.S. economy is not optimistic. In December 2007, the unemployment rate in the United States rose to 5%, a two-year high; The number of new employees is only 18000, the lowest level since August 2003. The U.S. Department of labor recently announced that the unemployment rate in February was 4.8%, still high. From the historical experience of the two economic recessions in the early 1990s and the early 2000s, we can see that before the recession, the unemployment rate rose by a large margin. Since the bottom in March 2007, the unemployment rate in the United States has risen by 60%; From the situation of more than 50 years, such a high increase in a year is usually a sign of economic recession. According to the March report released by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the US manufacturing activity index rose slightly in January, then fell to 48.3 in February, the lowest level since April 2003, accompanied by some other adverse conditions. A similar scenario foreshadowed a recession in 2001
the most worrying thing is that the worst time for the US economy may not have come yet. According to the time of US subprime lending, the peak period of delinquency should be from the second half of this year to the first half of next year. Therefore, the subprime losses now exposed may only be a small part of the total losses of the world financial system, and the subprime crisis has not reached the bottom<
the global economy is facing the threat of stagflation
the most fundamental impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the global economy is that it will change the structure of global policy objectives and bring about the mismatch of economic cycles among countries, making the accidental & quot; High quality game equilibrium & quot; If there is no deep monetary policy coordination and cooperation, the fragmented monetary policy regulation will lead to the global economic stagflation; Inferior Game Equilibrium & quot<
US trade imports shrink
one of the channels for the subprime crisis to lead to the global crisis is international trade. The US economic downturn and market weakness will affect the global economy through international trade channels. The United States is the most important import market in the world. The recession of the United States economy will rece the import demand of the United States, which will slow down the export of other countries, and then affect the GDP growth of these countries. This is particularly significant for countries or regions that rely on net exports to drive economic growth, such as Germany, Canada, Mexico, East Asian emerging market countries and oil exporting countries. In addition, the sharp depreciation of the US dollar will damage the international competitiveness of other countries' exports, especially those countries and regions that have a homogeneous competitive relationship with US exports, such as the European Union and Japan
capital & quot; Turbulent flow & quot<
the subprime crisis will increase the volatility and uncertainty of global capital flows. In the short run, in order to make up for the losses and relieve the pressure of capital adequacy ratio, American financial institutions withdraw their investment from the global market one after another; At the same time, sovereign wealth funds from developing countries have also increased their investment in U.S. financial institutions. The direction of international short-term capital flow is from other countries to the United States
in the medium term, in order to make profits again, American financial institutions,
it is characterized by people's more pessimistic expectation of the economic future, the devaluation of the currency in the whole region, the loss of the total economic volume and economic scale, and the blow to economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression, and even sometimes social unrest or national political instability
financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis is increasingly showing a mixed form of crisis.
the current financial crisis is caused by the bubble in the US housing market. In some ways, this financial crisis is similar to other crises that broke out every four to 10 years after the end of the Second World War< However, there are essential differences between financial crises. The current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the global reserve currency. Other cyclical crises are part of the larger boom bust process. The current financial crisis is the culmination of a super boom cycle that has lasted for more than 60 years
o handsome D ē Answer adoption rate: 23.1% 2008-12-20 22:08
financial crisis, also known as financial storm, refers to the sharp, short-term and super cyclical deterioration of all or most of the financial indicators (such as short-term interest rate, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), number of commercial bankruptcies and number of financial institution failures) of a country or several countries and regions
it is characterized by people's more pessimistic expectation of the economic future, the devaluation of the currency in the whole region, the loss of the total economic volume and economic scale, and the blow to economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression, and even sometimes social unrest or national political instability
financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis is more and more showing a mixed form of crisis
the current financial crisis is caused by the bubble in the US housing market. In some ways, this financial crisis is similar to other crises that broke out every four to 10 years after the end of the Second World War< However, there are essential differences between financial crises. The current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the global reserve currency. Other cyclical crises are part of the larger boom bust process. The current financial crisis is the culmination of a super boom cycle that has lasted for more than 60 years
boom bust cycles usually revolve around credit conditions and always involve a bias or misunderstanding. This is usually e to the failure to recognize that there is a reflexive and cyclical relationship between loan willingness and collateral value. If it is easy to obtain credit, it will bring demand, which will push up the value of real estate; This, in turn, increases the amount of credit available. When people buy real estate and expect to profit from mortgage refinancing, the bubble will emerge. In recent years, the US housing market boom is a case in point. The 60 years of super prosperity is a more complicated example
whenever credit expansion is in trouble, the financial authorities take intervention measures to inject liquidity into the market and find other ways to stimulate economic growth. This creates an asymmetric incentive system, also known as moral hazard, which promotes the increasingly strong expansion of credit. The system was so successful that people began to believe in former US President Ronald? What Ronald Reagan called "the magic of the market" - and I call it "market fundamentalism.". Fundamentalists believe that the market will tend to balance, and allowing market participants to pursue their own interests will be most concive to the common interests. This is obviously a misunderstanding, because it is not the market itself that keeps the financial market from collapsing, but the intervention of the authorities. However, market fundamentalism began to dominate the way of thinking in the 1980s, when financial markets began to globalize and the United States began to run a current account deficit
globalization enables the United States to absorb the savings of the rest of the world and consume goods higher than its own output. In 2006, the US current account deficit reached 6.2% of its GDP. By introcing increasingly complex procts and more generous terms, financial markets encourage consumers to borrow. Whenever the global financial system is in danger, the financial authorities intervene and play a role in boosting the flames. Since 1980, the regulation has been continuously relaxed, even to the point that it exists in name only
the subprime mortgage crisis has led to financial institutions in developed countries having to re estimate risks and allocate assets. In the next two years, funds in developed countries will reverse and flow back one after another to strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. As a result, the stock market prices of emerging market countries will shrink sharply, the local currency will depreciate, the investment scale will decline, the economic growth will slow down or even decline, among which the most vulnerable are the Baltic States and India. The new financial crisis will bring pressure on China's economic growth, but China's capital is also facing a good opportunity to "go out" and integrate the corresponding enterprises
in the early post-war period, e to the different degree of war damage and the different time of economic recovery in capitalist countries, the process of capitalist economic cycle is very inconsistent< (2) local wars, namely the American War of aggression against Korea in the early 1950s and the American War of aggression against Vietnam from the mid-1960s to the early 1970s, have had different effects on the process of the economic cycle of capitalist countries
③ after the war, state monopoly capitalism developed rapidly in various countries, but the state intervention measures adopted by different countries are not the same, so the effect of resisting the impact of foreign economic crisis is also different< (4) e to the close economic relations and common interests between some regions and some countries, regional alliances of some countries monopolizing capitalism, such as the European Economic Community, were formed after the war. Therefore, economic crisis sometimes shows obvious regional synchronicity in these countries, rather than world synchronicity< However, with the increasingly close international economic relations after World War II and the unprecedented development of capitalist world market, the trend of internationalization of proction and capital represented by transnational corporations has become an irresistible historical trend. These factors can not prevent the economic crisis from developing to the same period in the world. Since the 1970s, there have been two serious post-war simultaneous world economic crises in 1973-1975 and 1980-1982. This is the historical trend of the development of post-war economic crisis. This change reflects the deepening of the economic crisis. In the non synchronous economic crisis, the countries without crisis can absorb the surplus goods and capital of the countries in crisis and play a buffer role; At the same time of the world economic crisis, some major capitalist countries were caught in the crisis, and no one could save them. Moreover, they passed on the crisis to each other, intensified the contradictions and struggles between them, and prolonged the crisis.
1890-1893, German economic crisis
in the summer of 1899, a financial crisis swept Russia, and then instrial proction fell into crisis
Japan's first economic crisis broke out in 1900< In October 1929, the situation of New York Wall Street stock market took a sharp turn and the stock price plummeted. The stock market collapsed and caused an economic crisis
the world economic crisis from 1957 to 1958 occurred in the benign cycle of international economy from the end of World War II to the collapse of Bretton Woods system. After the overall economic growth of Europe and Japan, they are no longer satisfied with the dominance of the US dollar. So there was the "Bretton Woods conference" exchange rate negotiations, and even Europe's efforts from the pursuit of a unified market to the pursuit of a unified currency. During this period, the share of the US dollar in the total international currency graally decreased to 3 / 5
in December 1973, the largest and deepest world economic crisis after World War II broke out< In 1982 and 1983, Vietnam experienced an economic crisis
since the end of 1989, Japanese stock and real estate prices have plummeted, and enterprises and banks have closed down
the collapse of the US NASDAQ index in April 2000 marked the arrival of the great depression< In 2008, the global economic crisis
How about giving points for the above pure hand play Hee hee
