Why is the contract price of bitcoin higher than the spot price
Publish: 2021-04-19 18:42:27
1. Reasons for bitcoin's surge:
factor 1: bitcoin's spot trading volume rose
the decline on March 13 caused BTC to drop from US $8000 to US $3600 within 24 hours, and the buying volume of coinbase, Kraken, binance, bitfinex and other spot exchanges surged
at the same time, open positions (used to describe the total number of long and short positions opened at a specific time) fell sharply in mainstream futures exchanges (including bitmex, binance futures and okex)
the sharp decline of open position and the obvious increase of spot purchase volume of futures exchange actually lead to the transformation of the market. The spot market began to control the price of bitcoin, rather than the futures market
the futures market usually causes sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, because traders use leverage (borrowed funds) to trade cryptocurrency, while in the spot market, investors buy and sell bitcoin without borrowing funds
this change has stabilized the market, enabled the price of bitcoin to rebound without a significant correction, and the volatility is relatively low
factor 2: BTC should not have fallen below $4000 at the beginning
on March 31, coinbase published a blog post, describing in detail the market trend after bitcoin plummeted to $3600
the exchange said that most users of the platform bought bitcoin after a sudden decline, adding that the waterfall clearing led to a much lower decline in bitcoin on the futures exchange than on the spot exchange
coinbase explained: "waterfall clearing is the most prominent in bitmex, which provides highly leveraged procts. During the sell-off period, bitcoin trading price on bitmex was much lower than other exchanges. Until bitmex was maintained at the time of the highest volatility (based on DDoS attacks), waterfall clearing was suspended and prices rebounded rapidly. When the st settles, bitcoin hovers around $5000, before plummeting below $4000. "
this opens up a theory that bitcoin should not have fallen to $3000 in the first place, which explains why bitcoin rebounded rapidly to $7350 in a V-shape
factor 3: rapid recovery to key support level
since the beginning of 2018, the level of $5800 has been an important support area in history. Avoid bitcoin prices falling between $3000 and $4000, except in December 2018
bitcoin prices quickly recovered from the $3000 range to $5800 in seven days. After three tests in March, the price of $5800 became a strong bottom, allowing bitcoin to continue its rally.
factor 1: bitcoin's spot trading volume rose
the decline on March 13 caused BTC to drop from US $8000 to US $3600 within 24 hours, and the buying volume of coinbase, Kraken, binance, bitfinex and other spot exchanges surged
at the same time, open positions (used to describe the total number of long and short positions opened at a specific time) fell sharply in mainstream futures exchanges (including bitmex, binance futures and okex)
the sharp decline of open position and the obvious increase of spot purchase volume of futures exchange actually lead to the transformation of the market. The spot market began to control the price of bitcoin, rather than the futures market
the futures market usually causes sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, because traders use leverage (borrowed funds) to trade cryptocurrency, while in the spot market, investors buy and sell bitcoin without borrowing funds
this change has stabilized the market, enabled the price of bitcoin to rebound without a significant correction, and the volatility is relatively low
factor 2: BTC should not have fallen below $4000 at the beginning
on March 31, coinbase published a blog post, describing in detail the market trend after bitcoin plummeted to $3600
the exchange said that most users of the platform bought bitcoin after a sudden decline, adding that the waterfall clearing led to a much lower decline in bitcoin on the futures exchange than on the spot exchange
coinbase explained: "waterfall clearing is the most prominent in bitmex, which provides highly leveraged procts. During the sell-off period, bitcoin trading price on bitmex was much lower than other exchanges. Until bitmex was maintained at the time of the highest volatility (based on DDoS attacks), waterfall clearing was suspended and prices rebounded rapidly. When the st settles, bitcoin hovers around $5000, before plummeting below $4000. "
this opens up a theory that bitcoin should not have fallen to $3000 in the first place, which explains why bitcoin rebounded rapidly to $7350 in a V-shape
factor 3: rapid recovery to key support level
since the beginning of 2018, the level of $5800 has been an important support area in history. Avoid bitcoin prices falling between $3000 and $4000, except in December 2018
bitcoin prices quickly recovered from the $3000 range to $5800 in seven days. After three tests in March, the price of $5800 became a strong bottom, allowing bitcoin to continue its rally.
2. It's the same at delivery.
3. The main reason is that different trading mechanisms and trading platforms lead to different trading volumes. The gap between the spot prices of various platforms is generally very small, but sometimes futures are very large, because futures are a kind of hedging
bitcoin is a consensus network, contributing to a new payment system and a fully digital currency. It is the first decentralized peer-to-peer payment network, which is controlled by its users without a central management organization or middleman. From the user's point of view, bitcoin is much like Internet cash. Bitcoin can also be regarded as the most outstanding three style bookkeeping system.
bitcoin is a consensus network, contributing to a new payment system and a fully digital currency. It is the first decentralized peer-to-peer payment network, which is controlled by its users without a central management organization or middleman. From the user's point of view, bitcoin is much like Internet cash. Bitcoin can also be regarded as the most outstanding three style bookkeeping system.
4. Obviously, the price of the spot market has changed e to the contract, but the risk of the contract is great
what is bitcoin option
the so-called bitcoin option is to predict the future rise and fall of bitcoin. In operation, if you expect to call, you will buy up and if you expect to put, you will buy down. The calculation of profit is the same as that of spot goods. When buying up, you can earn as much as you go up in the cycle. When buying down, you can earn as much as you go down in the cycle. In short, it is to use a very small principal to bet on the rise and fall space of the future range, so as to obtain a high return
how to play bitcoin options
for example, if the current price of bitcoin is $10000, you think it will rise in the next hour, so you open a one hour call option, which costs 20 usdt. As expected, bitcoin rose by US $1000 in one hour. When it matures in one hour, the system automatically settles, and you get a return of US $1000, which is 50 times that of the principal
if bitcoin falls in the next hour, you will lose the principal of 20 usdt options, which is the advantage of "unlimited return and limited risk".
what is bitcoin option
the so-called bitcoin option is to predict the future rise and fall of bitcoin. In operation, if you expect to call, you will buy up and if you expect to put, you will buy down. The calculation of profit is the same as that of spot goods. When buying up, you can earn as much as you go up in the cycle. When buying down, you can earn as much as you go down in the cycle. In short, it is to use a very small principal to bet on the rise and fall space of the future range, so as to obtain a high return
how to play bitcoin options
for example, if the current price of bitcoin is $10000, you think it will rise in the next hour, so you open a one hour call option, which costs 20 usdt. As expected, bitcoin rose by US $1000 in one hour. When it matures in one hour, the system automatically settles, and you get a return of US $1000, which is 50 times that of the principal
if bitcoin falls in the next hour, you will lose the principal of 20 usdt options, which is the advantage of "unlimited return and limited risk".
5. Contract trading is a general term for the trading of bitcoin futures contracts
in June 2013, 796 exchange took the lead in developing the bitcoin weekly delivery standard Futures - t + 0 two-way trading virtual commodity barter contract (contract trading) in the bitcoin instry
the emergence of contract trading ended the previous history that bitcoin could not be short, and opened the prelude to the development and prosperity of bitcoin derivatives market
warm tips: the above information is for reference only and does not represent any suggestions
response time: December 16, 2020. Please refer to the official website of Ping An Bank for the latest business changes
[Ping An Bank I know] want to know more? Come and see "Ping An Bank I know" ~
https://b.pingan.com.cn/paim/iknow/index.html
in June 2013, 796 exchange took the lead in developing the bitcoin weekly delivery standard Futures - t + 0 two-way trading virtual commodity barter contract (contract trading) in the bitcoin instry
the emergence of contract trading ended the previous history that bitcoin could not be short, and opened the prelude to the development and prosperity of bitcoin derivatives market
warm tips: the above information is for reference only and does not represent any suggestions
response time: December 16, 2020. Please refer to the official website of Ping An Bank for the latest business changes
[Ping An Bank I know] want to know more? Come and see "Ping An Bank I know" ~
https://b.pingan.com.cn/paim/iknow/index.html
6. Bitcoin was about $3800 a year ago, and now it's between $38000 and $41000.
7. On the delivery date of stock index futures, generally speaking, there will be a delivery date effect, or maturity date effect, delivery date curse and so on
the so-called & quot; The curse of delivery day;, That is to say, on the settlement day of stock index futures, the trading volume and volatility of futures and spot will increase significantly. The reason is that stock index futures use cash delivery, arbitrage trading and position shifting trading will occur on the same day, resulting in fluctuations in the spot market. The most obvious performance is the sharp drop in the spot market
delivery: the transfer of spot goods between the seller of futures contract and the buyer of futures contract. All exchanges have specific proceres for the delivery of spot commodities. Some futures contracts, such as stock index contracts, are settled in cash
delivery date: - the date on which the parties agree to exchange money. According to the rules of the Chicago Board of trade, the delivery date is the third day in the delivery process. The contract buyer's clearing company must deliver the delivery notice together with a full amount certified check to the office of the contract seller's Clearing Company on the delivery date. Delivery in futures means that when your futures contract is e, you need to make physical delivery. That is, when the futures contract is e, the seller should perform his ties according to the law stipulated in the contract, and the buyer should pay for the goods in full. Generally used for legal person
The Curse of delivery date is the "maturity effect", which is common in overseas markets. In mature markets, the "triple witch effect" often occurs, that is, when stock index futures and options mature, some trading phenomena that are different from usual occur. Relevant studies found that: in the last hour of the simultaneous maturity of all index derivatives contracts, there will be an abnormally large trading volume and small stock price volatility. In the last half hour before the closing of maturity, the trading activity of S & P500 stock decreased significantly, and increased significantly in the opening stage of maturity. It is worth mentioning that before the official launch of stock index futures in China, Singapore launched Xinhua FTSE A50 stock index futures. Even if it was as far away as Wanli, the delivery date of A50 futures still had an impact on a shares. Among them, in the last round of bull market, several deep-seated falls of investors, such as "2.27", "5.30" and "6.27", were related to the maturity and delivery of Singapore FTSE A50 Index futures contract to a certain extent. A50 is highly correlated with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index. The impact of its delivery date on a shares has won it the nickname of "A50 curse"
the so-called & quot; The curse of delivery day;, That is to say, on the settlement day of stock index futures, the trading volume and volatility of futures and spot will increase significantly. The reason is that stock index futures use cash delivery, arbitrage trading and position shifting trading will occur on the same day, resulting in fluctuations in the spot market. The most obvious performance is the sharp drop in the spot market
delivery: the transfer of spot goods between the seller of futures contract and the buyer of futures contract. All exchanges have specific proceres for the delivery of spot commodities. Some futures contracts, such as stock index contracts, are settled in cash
delivery date: - the date on which the parties agree to exchange money. According to the rules of the Chicago Board of trade, the delivery date is the third day in the delivery process. The contract buyer's clearing company must deliver the delivery notice together with a full amount certified check to the office of the contract seller's Clearing Company on the delivery date. Delivery in futures means that when your futures contract is e, you need to make physical delivery. That is, when the futures contract is e, the seller should perform his ties according to the law stipulated in the contract, and the buyer should pay for the goods in full. Generally used for legal person
The Curse of delivery date is the "maturity effect", which is common in overseas markets. In mature markets, the "triple witch effect" often occurs, that is, when stock index futures and options mature, some trading phenomena that are different from usual occur. Relevant studies found that: in the last hour of the simultaneous maturity of all index derivatives contracts, there will be an abnormally large trading volume and small stock price volatility. In the last half hour before the closing of maturity, the trading activity of S & P500 stock decreased significantly, and increased significantly in the opening stage of maturity. It is worth mentioning that before the official launch of stock index futures in China, Singapore launched Xinhua FTSE A50 stock index futures. Even if it was as far away as Wanli, the delivery date of A50 futures still had an impact on a shares. Among them, in the last round of bull market, several deep-seated falls of investors, such as "2.27", "5.30" and "6.27", were related to the maturity and delivery of Singapore FTSE A50 Index futures contract to a certain extent. A50 is highly correlated with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index. The impact of its delivery date on a shares has won it the nickname of "A50 curse"
8. The price limit Commission of okex specifies the highest price users are willing to buy or the lowest price they are willing to sell. After the user sets the price limit, the market will give priority to the transaction at a price favorable to the direction.
9. Futures is people's expectation of the future price. The price itself is the current price, and there is a time difference
10. 58c & RLM; O I N Take the stock exchange as an example; B T C U S D T The latest transaction price is $12000. If you want to buy at a cheaper price of $11900, you need to set a limit price of $11900. When the price falls to less than or equal to $11900, you will automatically buy; On the contrary, if the market price is $12000 and you set a limit price of $12100 to buy, then according to the "buy low" principle, the system will immediately trade at the market price of $12000. Because the $12000 price limit is more "beneficial" to users than the $12100 price limit.
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