The trend of BTC
Publish: 2021-04-20 01:02:49
1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
2.
In terms of technological innovation, people who know blockchain are very supportive; About the future trend of bitcoin, as the earliest blockchain proct, it has been basically in the market. As for how big a pie there will be in the future, you can see my share
[John McPhee, the head of IBM and the board of directors of PayPal all predict that bitcoin will reach $1 million]
in recent days, the market has slowed down temporarily. However, this has not deterred investors. As previously reported, although some bearish pressure is forming, bulls have responded well and kept prices stable
since bitcoin failed to break through $5450, bitcoin bulls have kept the price above $5000. Recently, after a stable weekend, there was almost no report on the price trend, and the market rose appropriately. Now all attention is turning to $5200 as the next key target, and finally retesting the resistance level of $5450
as of April 15, the marginal revenue of bitcoin was less than 2%, and the transaction price was $5160. Earlier in the day, it had risen to a high of $5193, but failed to reach the target of $5200
Then bitcoin fell back to US $5157. The high degree of stability and flexibility that bulls maintain and push prices up shows how strong the current bull market is. As long as bitcoin can remain above $5000 and avoid a sharp correction, the bullish trend will continue to get more support and push prices higherthe price of bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million
a few weeks after PayPal first invested in blockchain technology, its latest board of directors made a bold price forecast for bitcoin. Wences Casares, a member of PayPal's board, said bitcoin could reach $1 million in the next 10 years. IBM blockchain & amp; Jesse Lund and John McAfee, directors of digital currency, have also made such predictions, which many believe are overconfident
in my (subjective) opinion, the chance of success is at least 50%. If bitcoin really succeeds, a bitcoin could be worth more than $1 million in seven to 10 years
the growth of bitcoin has driven Shanzhai coin
with the rise of bitcoin, most Shanzhai coins are also rising. Although the income is relatively low, most Shanzhai coins have about 1% to 4% income, but this growth is likely to continue
before the deadline, lightcoin's LTC was one of the best performing currencies. In the past few weeks, the performance of this coin has been extraordinary, which seems to determine the price trend of Shanzhai coin again
XRP and eth are also on the rise, but the marginal returns are 0.30% and 1.26% respectively. XRP's short-term goal is to return above $0.33, and its long-term goal is above $0.4. On the other hand, ETH hopes to climb back to more than $170, becoming its next target, and its preferred position is more than $190
3. Bitcoin:
blockchain is the underlying system of distributed ledger in bitcoin. Bitcoin ledgers are built in a distributed and spontaneous way. Anyone can generate new currency blocks by performing specific cryptographic calculations, so as to obtain a digital "currency" that can be used for transactions. Bitcoin's impact on the world monetary system can be said to be subversive, which is also an important reason why it has attracted a lot of people's strong attention since it came out. After that, there were dozens of similar electronic currencies such as
"lightcoin". The abstract extraction of distributed digital currency technology from bitcoin forms a "blockchain" technology, which can be used in more fields
bitcoin and other virtual digital currencies are only an application scenario of blockchain technology. Theoretically speaking, based on the characteristics of blockchain technology, human beings can create a very rich form of services and procts. There are a large number of scenarios in finance, government, enterprises, cross instry and other fields, which are suitable for blockchain technology and have broad prospects. At present, many countries around the world have started the research of blockchain technology, and a series of instry organizations and alliances have been established. However, as blockchain technology is a brand-new technology, which subverts the traditional centralized mode, major institutions are still in the research stage, with only a small number of actual projects landing, and the great development of the instry has just begun
now, blockchain economy is on the eve of outbreak. The exploration of financial instry is ahead of others, while the application of other instries is developing rapidly. The obvious advantage of blockchain instry application is to optimize business process, rece operation cost and improve collaborative efficiency. This advantage has been graally reflected in financial services, Internet of things, public services, social welfare and supply chain management
as the backbone of emerging technologies, blockchain is not only used in the field of virtual currency, but also in other fields such as finance, medical care, intellectual property certification, etc. a large number of excellent enterprises have emerged in China to explore or enter the blockchain instry. According to the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry released by foresight Instry Research Institute, as of the end of 2016, there were 105 blockchain related enterprises in China, 80% of which were concentrated in eastern coastal cities, including Shanghai, Hangzhou and Taipei
trustworthiness is the core requirement of blockchain, and the importance of standards and specifications is becoming increasingly prominent
in the future value delivery network based on blockchain, we will completely use algorithms and software to build the trust foundation. However, we believe that this is far from enough, and we need the standard to increase the credibility of the blockchain. In the future, the standard of blockchain will standardize the technology and governance of blockchain from the perspective of users, business oriented, and from the dimensions of smart contract, consensus mechanism, private key security, and authority management, so as to enhance the credibility of blockchain and add weight to the trust of blockchain.
blockchain is the underlying system of distributed ledger in bitcoin. Bitcoin ledgers are built in a distributed and spontaneous way. Anyone can generate new currency blocks by performing specific cryptographic calculations, so as to obtain a digital "currency" that can be used for transactions. Bitcoin's impact on the world monetary system can be said to be subversive, which is also an important reason why it has attracted a lot of people's strong attention since it came out. After that, there were dozens of similar electronic currencies such as
"lightcoin". The abstract extraction of distributed digital currency technology from bitcoin forms a "blockchain" technology, which can be used in more fields
bitcoin and other virtual digital currencies are only an application scenario of blockchain technology. Theoretically speaking, based on the characteristics of blockchain technology, human beings can create a very rich form of services and procts. There are a large number of scenarios in finance, government, enterprises, cross instry and other fields, which are suitable for blockchain technology and have broad prospects. At present, many countries around the world have started the research of blockchain technology, and a series of instry organizations and alliances have been established. However, as blockchain technology is a brand-new technology, which subverts the traditional centralized mode, major institutions are still in the research stage, with only a small number of actual projects landing, and the great development of the instry has just begun
now, blockchain economy is on the eve of outbreak. The exploration of financial instry is ahead of others, while the application of other instries is developing rapidly. The obvious advantage of blockchain instry application is to optimize business process, rece operation cost and improve collaborative efficiency. This advantage has been graally reflected in financial services, Internet of things, public services, social welfare and supply chain management
as the backbone of emerging technologies, blockchain is not only used in the field of virtual currency, but also in other fields such as finance, medical care, intellectual property certification, etc. a large number of excellent enterprises have emerged in China to explore or enter the blockchain instry. According to the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry released by foresight Instry Research Institute, as of the end of 2016, there were 105 blockchain related enterprises in China, 80% of which were concentrated in eastern coastal cities, including Shanghai, Hangzhou and Taipei
trustworthiness is the core requirement of blockchain, and the importance of standards and specifications is becoming increasingly prominent
in the future value delivery network based on blockchain, we will completely use algorithms and software to build the trust foundation. However, we believe that this is far from enough, and we need the standard to increase the credibility of the blockchain. In the future, the standard of blockchain will standardize the technology and governance of blockchain from the perspective of users, business oriented, and from the dimensions of smart contract, consensus mechanism, private key security, and authority management, so as to enhance the credibility of blockchain and add weight to the trust of blockchain.
4. At present, bitcoin is in a state of shock and sideways. Recently, bitcoin has rebounded slightly. I will go to Matcha MXC later and sell a few bitcoins that I bought in the last few days.
5. In a few decades, if quantum computers become popular, bitcoin will lose its value. Because quantum computers are too fast in some algorithms, traditional computer cryptography will be challenged (bank passwords, blockchain currencies...). It takes tens of thousands of years for traditional computers to crack bank codes, while quantum computers only take one second, Bitcoin is nothing more than that.
6.
Bitcoin price trend can be understood by looking at the trend chart. First of all, in the long run, bitcoin is at the bottom stage after the decline
from the perspective of investment opportunities, it is a good opportunity to start buying money and then collecting money. Of course, this premise is to be able to stand loneliness and stand the test of time. Tun coin is based on the year
from the perspective of band speculation. There has been a wave of market recently, but it only lasted about a week. Now that the investment window has been missed, the next investment window is expected to drop to $3500 or rise to about $4000 in bitcoin. When the investment window arrives, I (WAN Yuanfu) usually publish it in the group for the first time. Do band also need to have certain technology, this will take time to slowly improve and perception
7. Bitcoin is a decentralized point-to-point e-cash system. It has been more than 10 years since its birth. The price of bitcoin now hovers around $10000. Many people think that the price is too high and it is not cost-effective to buy it now. But in fact, even though bitcoin has been around for 10 years, it is still like a fetus in the womb, and a lot of people do not know the existence of bitcoin
bitcoin has not yet grown into a baby, and there is still huge room for growth. Its prospects are broad. In the next decade, let's look at the height of bitcoin. More and more people will know about bitcoin. Everyone needs bitcoin, and the demand for bitcoin transactions will be extremely strong.
bitcoin has not yet grown into a baby, and there is still huge room for growth. Its prospects are broad. In the next decade, let's look at the height of bitcoin. More and more people will know about bitcoin. Everyone needs bitcoin, and the demand for bitcoin transactions will be extremely strong.
8. The price of bitcoin fell below the lowest level since February
after two consecutive days of plummeting, according to the data of the "in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry" released by foresight Instry Research Institute, on June 13, Beijing time, the price of bitcoin fell below $6500, the lowest level since February this year. Bitcoin used to cost $6463. Since the beginning of this year, cryptocurrency has faced more and more resistance. Bitcoin, which has the largest total market value, has been fluctuating since it reached a record high (nearly US $20000) in December last year, with a cumulative decline of about 50% this year
from the United States, South Korea, Japan and other governments' supervision of cryptocurrency to the prohibition of cryptocurrency trading by visa, Bank of America and other large financial institutions, and to the prohibition of cryptocurrency advertising by internet giants such as Facebook, Google and twitter, the price of bitcoin has been aggravated by the recent multiple bad news
several exchanges were stolen
on June 10, coinrail, the cryptocurrency exchange of South Korea, was attacked by hackers, and more than US $40 million of unknown cryptocurrencies such as pundi
x were stolen. Subsequently, the prices of bitcoin, Ethereum, reborn and lightcoin all dropped more than 10% in one day
on June 29, 2017, bithumb, the largest bitcoin exchange in South Korea and the top five in the world, was found to have been hacked, and more than 30000 customers' personal information was stolen. According to the market value at that time, the loss amounted to 7.6 billion won
on January 26, coincheck, the largest trading volume exchange in Japan, suspended the trading of all cryptocurrencies except bitcoin. The trigger was that hackers attacked 260000 users and stole NEM, a new digital token, with a loss value of about US $530 million
bitcoin is likely to graally lose its loyal fans
bitcoin is now a widely recognized financial asset in the financial market, and many factors will lead to its price fluctuations, such as the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. At present, this round of price adjustment is still in progress since the beginning of the year. After all, in 2017, the price of bitcoin soared more than 20 times
bitcoin has been sold. From December 2017 to April 2018, bitcoin worth 30 billion US dollars has been sold. According to chainalysis, bitcoin's market liquidity has increased by nearly 60% in recent months. Bitcoin is likely to be losing its fans
the initial growth of bitcoin does rely on loyal fans. In recent years, the demand for investment has increased. However, bitcoin is still an asset with strong consensus foundation in the blockchain field, and long-term holders may waver. However, when they find that other cryptocurrencies are more risky, bitcoin may return to the vision of investors
since the beginning of the year, the price of bitcoin has been in a bear market cycle. At present, the bear market is still going on, and the periodic rebound will be obvious, but the overall situation is still in a weak adjustment. The probability of further weakening is relatively large, but the space will be relatively small.
after two consecutive days of plummeting, according to the data of the "in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry" released by foresight Instry Research Institute, on June 13, Beijing time, the price of bitcoin fell below $6500, the lowest level since February this year. Bitcoin used to cost $6463. Since the beginning of this year, cryptocurrency has faced more and more resistance. Bitcoin, which has the largest total market value, has been fluctuating since it reached a record high (nearly US $20000) in December last year, with a cumulative decline of about 50% this year
from the United States, South Korea, Japan and other governments' supervision of cryptocurrency to the prohibition of cryptocurrency trading by visa, Bank of America and other large financial institutions, and to the prohibition of cryptocurrency advertising by internet giants such as Facebook, Google and twitter, the price of bitcoin has been aggravated by the recent multiple bad news
several exchanges were stolen
on June 10, coinrail, the cryptocurrency exchange of South Korea, was attacked by hackers, and more than US $40 million of unknown cryptocurrencies such as pundi
x were stolen. Subsequently, the prices of bitcoin, Ethereum, reborn and lightcoin all dropped more than 10% in one day
on June 29, 2017, bithumb, the largest bitcoin exchange in South Korea and the top five in the world, was found to have been hacked, and more than 30000 customers' personal information was stolen. According to the market value at that time, the loss amounted to 7.6 billion won
on January 26, coincheck, the largest trading volume exchange in Japan, suspended the trading of all cryptocurrencies except bitcoin. The trigger was that hackers attacked 260000 users and stole NEM, a new digital token, with a loss value of about US $530 million
bitcoin is likely to graally lose its loyal fans
bitcoin is now a widely recognized financial asset in the financial market, and many factors will lead to its price fluctuations, such as the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. At present, this round of price adjustment is still in progress since the beginning of the year. After all, in 2017, the price of bitcoin soared more than 20 times
bitcoin has been sold. From December 2017 to April 2018, bitcoin worth 30 billion US dollars has been sold. According to chainalysis, bitcoin's market liquidity has increased by nearly 60% in recent months. Bitcoin is likely to be losing its fans
the initial growth of bitcoin does rely on loyal fans. In recent years, the demand for investment has increased. However, bitcoin is still an asset with strong consensus foundation in the blockchain field, and long-term holders may waver. However, when they find that other cryptocurrencies are more risky, bitcoin may return to the vision of investors
since the beginning of the year, the price of bitcoin has been in a bear market cycle. At present, the bear market is still going on, and the periodic rebound will be obvious, but the overall situation is still in a weak adjustment. The probability of further weakening is relatively large, but the space will be relatively small.
9. The trend is the direction of the bitcoin market, either up or down or sideways. Trend is the regular conclusion obtained by observing the financial trading market (such as stock, futures, foreign exchange, currency market, etc.). The change of buying and selling decision shapes the different forms of trend. The trend always runs in the direction of the least market resistance. To find the trend is to find the direction of the least resistance. Financial transaction masters generally advocate that traders follow the trend
any trend will always come to an end, that is to say, a bull market is bound to be accompanied by a bear market. The market price will not rise in a straight line in one direction. The trajectory of the trend movement is similar to successive waves, with clear peaks and troughs.
any trend will always come to an end, that is to say, a bull market is bound to be accompanied by a bear market. The market price will not rise in a straight line in one direction. The trajectory of the trend movement is similar to successive waves, with clear peaks and troughs.
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