Bitcoin resistance analysis
Publish: 2021-04-21 10:26:21
1.
bitcoin is not the mainstream currency now. Its skyrocketing price has nothing to do with us ordinary people for the time being, but it is far fetched to say that its bull market is coming. This may be just a short-term rebound
the peak value of bitcoin used to be US $20000. Since it fell to US $3500 in 2018, it has been in a state of occasional rebound. Although it has risen by 20%, it is still only US $5000. Compared with the high price of US $2W, it is only one fourth
at present, there is no clear statement about the attitude of government agencies in various countries towards bitcoin, especially as the world's largest bitcoin procer, the attitude of the Chinese government is more important, but until now, no official attitude has been found. The market is waiting to see, this wave of rise is likely to be the chain reaction caused by the reluctance of most holders to sell
at present, most people are bearish on bitcoin, but as an encrypted digital currency, whether it can be controlled is the government's consideration. If a currency is not effectively regulated, it will become a paradise for black instry. The damage to the economy and society will be immeasurable
therefore, at present, bitcoin is only a game for a small number of players, and the current holder is just a quilt. They hope to soar, but at present, it can only be a disappointing result
2. Bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
3. Since the issue price of bitcoin was 0.008 cents in 2009, the highest price of bitcoin has risen to 1280 US dollars (equivalent to more than 8000 RMB). Now the price has been maintained at 2000-3000 RMB. Because the mining time has been very long, and now the price has been in a declining stage, so bitcoin is no longer a first chance. Khan is the successor of bitcoin The third generation of digital cryptocurrency, the current Khan currency, is equivalent to the bitcoin of 2009. Its price is very low, and it has only entered China for nearly two months
4. The trend is the direction of the bitcoin market, either up or down or sideways. Trend is the regular conclusion obtained by observing the financial trading market (such as stock, futures, foreign exchange, currency market, etc.). The change of buying and selling decision shapes the different forms of trend. The trend always runs in the direction of the least market resistance. To find the trend is to find the direction of the least resistance. Financial transaction masters generally advocate that traders follow the trend
any trend will always come to an end, that is to say, a bull market is bound to be accompanied by a bear market. The market price will not rise in a straight line in one direction. The trajectory of the trend movement is similar to successive waves, with clear peaks and troughs.
any trend will always come to an end, that is to say, a bull market is bound to be accompanied by a bear market. The market price will not rise in a straight line in one direction. The trajectory of the trend movement is similar to successive waves, with clear peaks and troughs.
5.
With the development of science and technology, people's lives need to be digitized more and more. Digital currency is one of them. Bitcoin is the originator of digital currency. Its price once rose from less than one dollar to 20000 dollars. Later, with the continuous participation of people in the transaction, the price of bitcoin fluctuated greatly. Since the news that PayPal supported bitcoin transaction came out on the Internet, Bitcoin broke through several key obstacles and its price rose sharply. So what caused bitcoin to soar< PayPal supports bitcoin payment, which leads to a sharp rise in bitcoin. Bitcoin is the originator of digital currency, and it has a strong benchmarking effect. The price of bitcoin fluctuates, but it was relatively low before, so it rebounded from the bottom
1. PayPal is a world-famous payment tool, and its support has led to a sharp rise in bitcoin< p> PayPal has nearly 300 million users in the world. It can be used and traded across countries. Its support for bitcoin has led to people's belief that bitcoin can not be realized through digital currency exchanges, but can also buy things to pay. It widens the application scenarios and realizes in multiple channels. Therefore, after PayPal announced the news, bitcoin's price rose sharply{ RRRRR}if you have any other ideas about the special currency, please leave a comment
6. There are risks in the currency circle, so we should be cautious in currency speculation
in the early morning of the 25th, BTC fell sharply and continued its weak shock. The lowest price of BTC reached around 3650 and stopped falling. During the day, BTC rebounded many times and reached 3800, but did not reach 3800. The daily and four hour mark of $3700 is just at the position of the 60 day moving average of the four hour chart and the 10 day moving average of the daily chart. Therefore, the intraday price is supported near this position and a long short battle is launched at this position. Last night, a trial pierced this position
at present, it's important to return to the position above 3700. Whether the short-term bulls can hold the rally or not basically determines whether the rally ends. The key defense area is the area around 3650-3700, which falls below the position of 3550 or even lower in the short-term view. Today's market operation rebound short thinking, first look at the rebound correction strength, and then look at the weak shock, the upper short-term pressure focus on 3800 and 3900-4000 area, the lower short-term support focus on yesterday's intraday low 3650 and the daily track 3550, short-term single within the day is recommended to combine the light warehouse near 3750-3850 to enter, and defend the 4000 barrier within the day
as for multiple orders, it is suggested that the layout around 3550-3600 is much shorter, the market consolidation should be more wait-and-see, the market should be cautious, the market should be violent, and the market is changing rapidly. The operation should be combined with real-time market pressure support, and the risk control of position control should be paid attention to.
in the early morning of the 25th, BTC fell sharply and continued its weak shock. The lowest price of BTC reached around 3650 and stopped falling. During the day, BTC rebounded many times and reached 3800, but did not reach 3800. The daily and four hour mark of $3700 is just at the position of the 60 day moving average of the four hour chart and the 10 day moving average of the daily chart. Therefore, the intraday price is supported near this position and a long short battle is launched at this position. Last night, a trial pierced this position
at present, it's important to return to the position above 3700. Whether the short-term bulls can hold the rally or not basically determines whether the rally ends. The key defense area is the area around 3650-3700, which falls below the position of 3550 or even lower in the short-term view. Today's market operation rebound short thinking, first look at the rebound correction strength, and then look at the weak shock, the upper short-term pressure focus on 3800 and 3900-4000 area, the lower short-term support focus on yesterday's intraday low 3650 and the daily track 3550, short-term single within the day is recommended to combine the light warehouse near 3750-3850 to enter, and defend the 4000 barrier within the day
as for multiple orders, it is suggested that the layout around 3550-3600 is much shorter, the market consolidation should be more wait-and-see, the market should be cautious, the market should be violent, and the market is changing rapidly. The operation should be combined with real-time market pressure support, and the risk control of position control should be paid attention to.
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