Bitcoin crash bear market

1. To be honest, I may come into contact with bitcoin later than many of my peers, but I'm one of the quickest people to make a decision to join the instry. I learned from the news that Jet Li's one foundation was grateful to the enthusiasts who donated bitcoin. After less than ten minutes of thinking, I immediately decided to put down 90% of the projects I had completed and devote myself to this instry with incomparable prospects. I am a technology controller. Although I am not well-known in the Internet instry, I have operated no less than 10 it projects, and have cooperated with or established 7 companies. Among them, there are also successes and failures. The only instry that has not been involved is group buying, because I thought from the beginning that group buying deviated from its original appearance and would not be a very promising instry. But after learning about bitcoin, I feel that I have found a window, a window to the palace of ideals, a way to change the world. Today, I still insist on my choice, but the real use value of bitcoin in China is rarely reflected except for its speculative property. After multi-party analysis, I think the short-term downward trend is irreversible. Let's list the following factors that cause the price of bitcoin to fall:
first, the excessively free market - the copper price killer
bitcoin is born for freedom and lives for freedom, which has created a group of bitcoin fans who are crazy about pursuing freedom. The decentralization of the bitcoin exchange has been rampant for a time. The current situation of no supervision of the bitcoin exchange is obvious to all, and it can not be solved by itself, such as the forever anonymous dark village, the disorderly competition of mining machinery, etc. these important factors that are often ignored by people are also important drivers of the price drop
just think of the capitalist social system in the early days. People had great expectations and perseverance. They could sacrifice their lives for freedom and cut the rope on puppets at all costs. During the transition from feudal socialism to capitalism, people were like holding on to the water for several generations, suddenly came out to breathe fresh air, and no one was allowed to press themselves into the water again, The result is a social system of excessive freedom. The result of excessive freedom is that once someone obtains certain resources and social advantages, he can quickly devour everything around him like a black hole, forming a monopoly and giving birth to an oligarchy. They don't care about other people's lives, just like gladiators. If you lose, you have to bear all the consequences; If I win, I can enjoy some honor. But after all, oligarchs are a minority. Society is made up of thousands of ordinary people, so the system made up of people must be unstable and unreasonable. Therefore, modern capitalist society has learned to compromise. After learning from many advantages of capitalist society at that time, it is found that there are anti-monopoly laws, various anti-commercial bribery and other daily laws for proper supervision, In order to effectively delay the outbreak cycle of the financial crisis
the reason why so many words are used to describe capitalist society is that bitcoin has too many similarities with it. A brand new financial system does not depend on specific institutions or indivials, but also depends on all participants. With it, we can eliminate all external influences and keep our wallets. It's a great idea, but what about the reality? Holding a large amount of bitcoin, amzhuang can control the price of bitcoin. In the capital market, 1 billion yuan is only a very small amount. For the bitcoin market, it is enough to control the price rise and fall of any exchange, back and forth volatility, commonly known as "fleece". Easier said than done, as like as two peas in the market, you will be able to control the bitcoin in your hands. But you have to be in the market. For these makers, they can benefit from the ups and downs, because in the trend of the rising market, they will increase ring each shock period, and fall more every time the market falls. At the top of the pyramid, there are always only a few people
after more than a year of communication with players in the instry, we found that those who are still left behind are either deeply covered or persistent believers. Even if they are covered, only a few of them are entities. Most of the left behind are pure it houses, and they blush when they meet. Most of them have no financial experience, even few of them have speculated in stocks, so they are in shock, It's certain that Xiaosan will be injured< Another important factor is that, like stocks, the amount of cash in circulation is far less than the total value. Although several exchanges have not announced the amount of bitcoin and the total amount of RMB assets, it can be concluded from the data of mtgox's bankruptcy that the amount of cash announced by mtgox is US $40 million, Bitcoin is worth US $450 million, reaching a staggering 1:11. According to my preliminary understanding, the general comparison of domestic trading platforms is between 1:3 and 1:6, which is slightly better than mtfox, but it is also enough to illustrate the problem. Once the bear market comes, the power of shorting is far greater than that of long
although the stock market did not rise sharply last year, many people did profit from the stock market and attracted many of the few users who swayed between the stock market and bitcoin. Many of the professional investment users and deep-seated users who benefited from bitcoin also left the bitcoin instry for various reasons. The big reason is that for bitcoin, They think that in addition to speculation, it is a game played by technical talents. Although this is a misunderstanding, let's think about it from another perspective. If you are an investor outside the IT instry and face the world's largest trading platform, you will go bankrupt if it goes bankrupt. If bitcoin is stolen, it will be stolen without supervision and responsibility. What would you think? Therefore, the reason for today's situation is that the number of bitcoin has not decreased, but the capital is decreasing. Although there are many foreign advantages ring this period, the domestic situation has been declining. This is an indisputable fact
with the decrease of funds, long has lost enough momentum. The reason why there is no sharp decline is that there are still a number of bitcoin loyalists. Some of them have been engaged in bitcoin for several consecutive years, and almost every year they have to experience a similar slump. Therefore, they still firmly believe that this year is just a repetition of the market rules of previous years, and the final price will rise; Of course, I personally believe that in the long run, the trend of bitcoin will go up, but is it half a year or three to five years? I'm really not sure, because the biggest constant in the world is change. As the saying goes, the flowers are similar year by year, but the people are different year by year. The past experience may not be applicable to the present< Third, domestic policy - gold price killer
I don't know if the Americans have understood that it was not Japan, the United States, Europe, but China that decided the price of bitcoin in 2013. Made in China used to be a headache for foreigners. Now, they also realize the power of China's speculation. China's real estate speculators are like locusts everywhere they go. At present, China's speculators are also rapidly overdrawn the growth value of bitcoin. China, which has 80% of the world's trading volume, explicitly forbids the value of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, so it has no real value in China except for speculation
I believe that the world's understanding of the power of Chinese speculators in bitcoin began with the documents of five ministries and commissions, because before that, almost no organization participated in the international bitcoin conference. After that, many foreign media swarmed in, professional and unprofessional media came. This time, although the documents on April 15 have not been confirmed, the financial times interviewed bitcoin in advance, which shows that they recognize the power of Chinese speculators
why is an Internet proct that started in foreign countries so influenced by China's policies? This is not its main application place, which just reflects that the price of bitcoin is seriously out of its actual value line, artificially pushed up and overdrawn its value. In my opinion, without CCTV's report and China's participation, it would have been good for bitcoin to have a price of more than 1000 last year. It was also e to excessive attention, which created the fastest five ministerial documents in history< 4. Crazy miner - the ultimate price killer
the computing power of bitcoin miner has increased from 1p at the end of last year to more than 30p now. In less than five months, the price of bitcoin miner has dropped from 6000 to 2700 today. In other words, the number of miner has increased dozens of times, from CPU to motherboard, power supply, power supply, etc The chassis and processing costs are all paid in RMB. Just imagine how much cash flow the mining machine has taken from the whole bitcoin ecological chain. Once the cash flows into the hands of TSMC, motherboard factory and others, it will never be kept back. This is also the result of disorderly competition, once profitable, the number will never end! It is said that Shenzhen proces 90% of the world's computing power of mining machines, and each time the chips are streamed, the chips are less than 3.5 million, more than 20.3 million, not to mention the whole machine. A mining machine manufacturer I know in Shenzhen club said that he sold 1000 USB mining machines a minute, which shows the madness
to sum up, all aspects have exerted pressure on cash flow, so the continuous decline of bitcoin in the short term is caused by many reasons. Even without the 4.15 document, I believe a continuous decline process will be formed. As for the bottom, it depends on the belief of those who still hold fast to it and when the crazy mining machine will not continue, And the actual application of bitcoin in foreign countries
those who played with stocks in 2008 may find that bitcoin shares a striking resemblance to the price trend of stocks. If bitcoin goes up from 2000 to 5300, any good news, even an additional issue, will make stocks soar all the time. After that, although the stock surged to the highest point, the downward trend was like "defeat like a mountain". Any bad news would cause a decline. Coupled with the excessive issuance of new shares and serious overdraft of market cash, the a share once fell back to about 1600 points. Although it rebounded to more than 3000 points, it would still jump to about 2000 points. After several years of shock, it did not improve
bitcoin plate is small and easy to rise and fall. However, if the retail investors are excessively injured, bitcoin's loyalty can only be powerless to let bitcoin rise. The false rise of the makers will face a lot of market capital pressure and can only follow the trend
at present, there are several companies in the whole instry that can support short selling, such as fire coin, China bitcoin and okcoin, which also aggravates the dection process
of course, I am still very optimistic about the long-term development of bitcoin, but I really can't see how to break the current deadlock. The purpose of this article is to provide some personal opinions for the majority of small businesses. Maybe you are more in-depth and complete than I think, but finance is nothing more than that

2.

In a long enough period of time, the ups and downs of the investment market is a reciprocating cycle. In a short time, human nature has been tested. Between short and long positions, between buying and selling, the wealth of participants is redistributed rapidly

after the news of Sino US trade war settlement came out, the stock market had a good start on Monday, but then fell back in the next few days. Nothing seems to have happened

in the view of many people, the sharp decline after bitcoin's soaring is actually predictable. However, many people are faced with the continuous protection of bitcoin, and subconsciously believe that the price of bitcoin will not plummet at this moment, but when the result appears, it is too late. This time, the bitcoin storm is a wake-up call for investors who are not optimistic about gold to some extent

it can be seen from the slump that bitcoin is still unable to compare with gold. If they disagree, bitcoin will double; If not, it is usually halved. It is impossible for gold to make a systematic forecast based on market news. Gold prices can be predicted by the overall market direction, and changes in news can be used to control gold prices and minimize losses

ring the soaring price of bitcoin, many gold investors gave up their investment in gold and turned to the bitcoin market, which led to a certain degree of decline in the demand for gold investment. After the collapse, market sentiment may return to calm, and gold will be chosen as an investment target again, especially in the period of possible interest rate increase. During this period, if the demand for gold investment rises, a certain amount of bottom support may be added for gold to hedge the negative impact of interest rate increase

On the whole, the bear market is still long. Now is not the best time for the spot party to sell Soha, but there is no need to worry about returning to zero. If the fixed investment is still good

last year, when bitcoin was more than 100000 yuan, many people who didn't get on the bus patted their thighs and said: when NIMA was more than 20000 yuan, they didn't dare to buy it! God give me another chance to sell my house

after less than a year, bitcoin has returned to more than 20000, but at this time, it says that this thing is going to fall, and it is about to collapse

bitcoin has been declared dead more than 300 times, and now it still has a market value of 59.2 billion. After each new high, there are a group of people who blame themselves for not entering in time with tears. Any opportunity is like this. There are few successful people, and the weak people are mediocre all their lives

3. Bitcoin is a complete fraud
take a look at several countries where bitcoin is booming, which one is not the United States or the dog country of the United States
they tried to use bitcoin to launder money and rob China.

4.

By midday, bitcoin had fallen to around $10700. Bitcoin's previous attempt to break through $12000 failed, and yesterday's downward trend continues to this day. As a result, the cryptocurrency market fell, with 90 of the top 100 currencies falling

in the past 24 hours, according to the okex platform, the net outflow amount of bitcoin reached 638 million yuan, and according to the currency security data, the net outflow amount of bitcoin reached 152 million yuan. Although the capital outflow in the past 24 hours is relatively large, it has decreased compared with yesterday's capital outflow, and bitcoin has hit the bottom of US $10600 for many times in the past 24 hours. However, in terms of trading volume, there is strong support in this position. After that, we still need to observe the withdrawal of funds, so as to confirm whether the market goes up or continues to fall below the down. In fact, the so-called "bear market" in the currency circle is more popular than the "three o'clock community" before. In my opinion, I basically dare to assert that there are makers in the currency circle who have successfully harvested a batch of "leeks" by using some financial means or big men. This view may sound like "conspiracy theory" to many people, But I have to admit that speculators are everywhere in the coin circle. Zhu Xiaohu's warning that "I hope you don't stay in history because you reap leeks to earn money with blood" also has a certain basis in my opinion

the craziest time was in December 2017, when bitcoin reached more than 100000 yuan. Before that, people who invested in bitcoin could make a fortune overnight. At the end of 2017, the price dropped to below 40000 yuan, and there was also a correction in 2018

there are two ways to invest in bitcoin

one is to buy bitcoin directly and wait for it to rise, that is, simply buy it low and sell it high. Judging from the historical data and the popularity of blockchain, there is still a lot of room for bitcoin to rise, but the cost of this investment method is relatively low, and the price of bitcoin fluctuates too much, so although the income of buying bitcoin directly is high, But the risk is also great

the other is to "dig" bitcoin with professional equipment. The total amount of bitcoin is 21 million. Mining is the only way to get bitcoin, that is, through a professional computer, which is called mining machine in the instry, to get bitcoin through a lot of calculation, and then sell bitcoin to get income. At present, the price of a mining machine is about 10000, Another problem is the cost of electricity. This kind of equipment consumes a lot of power and needs 24-hour uninterrupted operation, so after a long time, the electricity cost is not a small cost

at present, there are many people engaged in mining, mostly in the form of mines, finding cheap electricity for centralized mining to rece costs

every day will generate income, the highest is more than 200. In addition, the fluctuation of the currency price has little impact on the mining, because the bitcoin can be sold at any price. Even if the price of the coin is low, it can be sold after the price rises. Therefore, the investment income is relatively stable, the risk is relatively low, and the current machine price is also low, There is no threshold for investment, so it is a good opportunity for investment

According to the current market, mining income is not high, and even some retail investors have caused losses, but it is difficult to lose money in large-scale professional mines. Mining requires the cost of machinery and equipment and the cost of electricity price. With the decline of bitcoin market, the cost of machinery has been reced again and again, and the electricity price in large mines is also extremely low. Therefore, the income of mining in large mines will be higher than the cost for a long time in the future, and the income will be higher after the price of bitcoin rises

compared with self built mines, it has certain advantages to invest in mining machinery trusteeship business. Firstly, the time cost is saved to a certain extent, and the mining business can be started immediately. Secondly, unnecessary expenses, such as labor cost, are saved. Since the custody business concentrates the mining machines of multiple investors in one mine, the labor cost is shared by all investors. Finally, there are cheaper electricity prices. The ultimate goal of hosting enterprises to carry out mining machinery hosting business is to make profits. If they can not get lower than the normal electricity price on the market, it is difficult for hosting enterprises to make profits. Of course, the electricity price given to investors will also be lower than the normal electricity price on the market. Another important advantage is that some trusteeship enterprises are able to cash the virtual currency g up by investors' mining machines directly, which also relieves some investors from the worry that they can't cash the virtual currency

is mining profitable or not? There are several factors affecting the mining income: first, the currency price. The higher the currency price, the more profitable the mining. The second is the difficulty. The slower the difficulty rises, the more profitable the mining will be. The lower the cost, the more profitable the mining. Of course, the cost here refers to the purchasing cost and operating cost of computing power, including labor, network, construction, electricity and so on. The lower the cost, the better. Mining needs to deal with the risk of currency price plummeting, mining difficulty soaring, and mining costs rising. At present, the risk of mining currency speculation is much smaller

now the currency price continues to fall. Some people say that it's better to buy money directly than to buy a miner. In fact, it's not the case. Buying money must bear the risk of currency price falling, and the risk and income coexist, while buying a miner is to "protect the income from drought and flood" and keep the value of money rising; In the absence of rich market experience, the decision to buy money is only the choice of speculators

5.

Please click
to ask how much worry you can have, which is like worrying about money
since December last year, the price of bitcoin has continued to decline, with the average price of bitcoin hovering at US $6000. For old chives, the bear market of "bitcoin circle" for half a year seems nothing, but for those who have not yet entered, their hearts are full of doubts. Is this a new round of bear market of "coin circle", Or does it mean bitcoin has taken off all its packaging and returned to its e value. Perhaps the collapse of the currency circle is not a "bear market". Bitcoin has fallen from US $20000 to US $6000, Ethereum has fallen from the highest US $1500 to more than US $300, the prices of various air currencies and counterfeit currencies have been cleared, and the total market value of global digital currencies has fallen from more than US $800 billion to the lowest US $260 billion. More people call this a long bear market of the "currency circle", When all bad currencies leave the market, the currency circle will return to the bull market

red is like fire, pink is like haze, and white is like snow. The flowers are sweet; When I close my eyes, the trees seem to be full of peaches, apricots and pears. Under the flowers, hundreds of bees are buzzing and butterflies are flying around. Wild flowers everywhere are: miscellaneous children, with a name, no name, scattered in the grass, like eyes, like stars, but also blinking
"blowing face is not cold, willow wind", it's good, like mother's hand touching you. The wind brings the smell of some newly turned soil, mixed with the smell of grass, and the fragrance of various flowers, all brewing in the slightly moist air. The birds set their nests among the flowers and leaves. They are happy. They show off their crisp throats and sing melodies in harmony with the breeze and the flowing water. The piccolo of the shepherd boy on the cow's back is also ringing all day

rain is the most common, which lasts for three or two days. Don't be upset. Look, it's like cow hair, flower needle and fine silk. It's densely woven obliquely. There's a thin layer of smoke on the roof. The leaves are bright green, and the grass is green to your eyes. In the evening, when the lamp was on, a little yellow halo light set off a quiet and peaceful night. In the countryside, on the path, beside the stone bridge, there are people who are holding up umbrellas and walking slowly. There are also working farmers in the field, wearing coir and hat. Their houses, sparsely silent in the rain

there are more kites in the sky and more children on the ground. Every family in the city and countryside, old and small, came out one by one. Shuhuo Shuhuo muscles and bones, shake up the spirit, each do their own thing“ The plan of a year lies in the spring. "At the beginning, there are some efforts and some hopes

spring is like a newly fallen baby, which is new from head to toe and growing
in spring

6. PPLNs + is a kind of income distribution mode of mining pool. It is created by AA mining pool and optimized by the traditional PPLNs, pplnt and prop modes. It is more accurate and efficient in the distribution of computing power and income. The specific intuitive embodiment is that the income obtained from digging blocks is accurately distributed, and the long-term mining improves the income of miners.

7. Yes, it can always be invested.

8. CPU has always been able to mine, but its efficiency is not as high as graphics card. For example, you pay 10000 yuan to hire four college students to calculate addition, subtraction, multiplication and division for you, and 10000 yuan to hire 40 primary school students to calculate addition, subtraction, multiplication and division for you. Which efficiency do you think is high?

9.

According to

crypto cred, this situation may indicate that there is not enough momentum to do long in the market

in addition, crypto cred also believes that the consolidation of bitcoin in the previous three months is a range consolidation, not a triangle consolidation, so once the horizontal support line is broken, the market sentiment will become very pessimistic

crypto cred also pointed out that in the daily K-line chart of bitcoin in September, the closing price of 24 days was lower than that of the previous day, which also showed that the whole trend was developing in a bad direction

Future trend, how to develop< p> Ledger status points out that bitcoin's stepping back into the $8000 or even lower range is likely to prepare for future actions

he believes that bulls need to take back several key positions first. First, bitcoin needs to go back above $8400, which is the 200 day moving average

he explained that if the price of bitcoin could get back to $8400, it could rise rapidly and retest $9400. After that, if bitcoin can further break through the previous integration range, it is very likely to create a new annual high

However, unfortunately, the 200 day moving average is becoming a strong resistance line. If bitcoin fails to break through this position, it is likely to go further down to the low of $6000

however, ledger status also points out that even if bitcoin goes further down to $6000, technically speaking, the long-term bullish trend has not been broken. He said,

"I remain bullish for a long time, unless bitcoin falls below its 200 week moving average (currently about $4600 and is still climbing), which marks the bottom of the first two bear markets."

finally, ledger status said that if the price of bitcoin can rebound above the 200 day and 20 week moving average, it will be quite optimistic for the market

up to now, the price of bitcoin is US $8070.5, and the market value of bitcoin accounts for about 67.1% of the total market value of the whole cryptocurrency

10. First of all, gold plummeted, to say the harm, the most direct is the gold speculation long astringent, the kind of decline a few days ago, basically all the long positions touched the stop loss price, closed out.