The determinants of bitcoin price

1. The concept of bitcoin was first proposed by Nakamoto on November 1, 2008, and was officially born on January 3, 2009. According to the idea of Nakamoto, the open source software is designed and released, and the P2P network on it is constructed. Bitcoin is a virtual encrypted digital currency in the form of P2P. Point to point transmission means a decentralized payment system. Unlike all currencies, bitcoin does not rely on a specific currency institution to issue. It is generated by a large number of calculations based on a specific algorithm. Bitcoin economy uses a distributed database composed of many nodes in the whole P2P network to confirm and record all transactions, and uses cryptography design to ensure the security of all aspects of money circulation. The decentralized nature and algorithm of P2P can ensure that it is impossible to artificially manipulate the value of bitcoin through mass proction. The design based on cryptography can make bitcoin only be transferred or paid by the real owner. This also ensures the anonymity of money ownership and circulation transactions. The biggest difference between bitcoin and other virtual currencies is that the total amount of bitcoin is very limited and it has a strong scarcity
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2. Reasons for bitcoin's surge:
factor 1: bitcoin's spot trading volume rose
the decline on March 13 caused BTC to drop from US $8000 to US $3600 within 24 hours, and the buying volume of coinbase, Kraken, binance, bitfinex and other spot exchanges surged
at the same time, open positions (used to describe the total number of long and short positions opened at a specific time) fell sharply in mainstream futures exchanges (including bitmex, binance futures and okex)
the sharp decline of open position and the obvious increase of spot purchase volume of futures exchange actually lead to the transformation of the market. The spot market began to control the price of bitcoin, rather than the futures market
the futures market usually causes sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, because traders use leverage (borrowed funds) to trade cryptocurrency, while in the spot market, investors buy and sell bitcoin without borrowing funds
this change has stabilized the market, enabled the price of bitcoin to rebound without a significant correction, and the volatility is relatively low

factor 2: BTC should not have fallen below $4000 at the beginning
on March 31, coinbase published a blog post, describing in detail the market trend after bitcoin plummeted to $3600
the exchange said that most users of the platform bought bitcoin after a sudden decline, adding that the waterfall clearing led to a much lower decline in bitcoin on the futures exchange than on the spot exchange
coinbase explained: "waterfall clearing is the most prominent in bitmex, which provides highly leveraged procts. During the sell-off period, bitcoin trading price on bitmex was much lower than other exchanges. Until bitmex was maintained at the time of the highest volatility (based on DDoS attacks), waterfall clearing was suspended and prices rebounded rapidly. When the st settles, bitcoin hovers around $5000, before plummeting below $4000. "
this opens up a theory that bitcoin should not have fallen to $3000 in the first place, which explains why bitcoin rebounded rapidly to $7350 in a V-shape

factor 3: rapid recovery to key support level
since the beginning of 2018, the level of $5800 has been an important support area in history. Avoid bitcoin prices falling between $3000 and $4000, except in December 2018
bitcoin prices quickly recovered from the $3000 range to $5800 in seven days. After three tests in March, the price of $5800 became a strong bottom, allowing bitcoin to continue its rally.

3. Bitcoin is valuable because it is useful as a form of currency. Bitcoin has the mathematical characteristics of money (persistence, portability, interchangeability, scarcity, separability and identifiability) rather than relying on physical characteristics (such as gold and silver) or the trust of central authorities (such as fiat money). In short, bitcoin is backed by mathematics. With these characteristics, a form of money to have value requires trust and use. In contrast, this can be reflected in its growing base of users, businesses and start-ups. Like all currencies, the value of bitcoin comes directly from people who are willing to accept it as a means of payment, which is the only source In China, it is defined as a special Internet commodity by the central bank
the price of bitcoin is determined by supply and demand. When the demand for bitcoin increases, the price of bitcoin rises; As demand decreases, prices fall. At present, only a few bitcoins are in circulation, and new bitcoins are issued at a predictable rate of graal decline, which means that demand must follow this inflation level in order to maintain price stability. Compared with the market scale it may become, bitcoin is still a relatively small market at present. It does not need a lot of money to make the market price fluctuate up and down. Therefore, the price of bitcoin is still very unstable.

4. It's divided into price and value
1: value is the so-called currency born from the early decentralized blockchain Technology (in fact, the capital owns the centralized computing power, and the capital owns the centralized currency quantity, which may not be ideal here). At that time, people had certain expectations and beliefs. The decentralized low trust cost world chase was a good future imagination, which made most people recognize its value (of course, it also caused negative use value, which could not be controlled and regulated by the government, and provided a lot of extra convenience)
of course, some attributes of digital currency can be used for reference, Now countries are also in the trend of legal digital currency. Due to certain technical reasons, BTC may eventually disappear, or it is difficult to achieve the vision of believers. If there is no better change of technology, the limitation of technology will be phased out with the current development of science and technology
2: of course, the price is basically determined by market transactions. BTC is used by a lot of capital, and more value may be used as financial value Another common perception of price is that the quantity is limited and the output is getting slower and slower. With the increase of the use area, the scarcity increases the price, and the story of halving the price is also a good help for capitalists)
because it is a minority, there is no regulation, so the power of capital has a great impact on the price. The good effect of getting rich can attract more and more people to come into the market. The exchanges of various capital institutions have solved the problems of business instry, gained some additional operating income, and created instries (such as basic financial derivatives and more)
including this year's events, with the epidemic situation and the situation in the United States, new financial derivatives are manufactured by joint institutions. In the secondary market, a new circular wealth story is born. This mode is still relatively solid, with stable prices and rising prices. Of course, the final digester is the ordinary people
at the same time, the characteristics of BTC also lead to a part of human allocation of hedging assets
and so on, the price of BTC is proced under the game
personal final conclusion (for reference only): bitcoin is more of a kind of financial value, its use value is still limited at present, and it is also very difficult to promote in the future. If the technology does not evolve, it will still be small. Of course, the game of the world government is also a certain resistance
the current price is based on the financial game of institutions, and it is stable to a certain extent. The premise is that if there is no new large number of people participating in the game, the current rising trend will slow down, and the gray scale and institutions are also expanding the playing methods of other digital currencies (after all, the number of BTCs targeted by GBTC has accounted for more of the total BTCs - physical contribution plus less cash contribution), But there may still be a rise, but when it will be the top depends on the results of various games (I think there are several points: 1. How long can the game between the trading frequency and holding amount of BTC or other currencies in the primary market last, and when people's purchase and consumption will reach a limit. It can't be bought and sold all the time, there is a limit when what the 2. gradation and what the BTC of the GBTC corresponds to is the two level market digestion of the market, when it will be indigestion is also a game... Etc.)
BTC has bubble, and the financial game of capital is full of bubbles. Of course, this is the opportunity to get rich easily.
but the risk is very high, which is not suitable for the public. It can only be said that it depends on fortune and opportunity
BTC has big moves with every financial trend game
investment should be cautious.

5. Bitcoin is a digital currency, which does not rely on real money or financial procts. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the price trend of bitcoin from the development and change of physical objects
unlike other mature financial procts, bitcoin instry is still in its infancy, and there will be many changes in it; Secondly, bitcoin is decentralized. Its total supply-demand relationship is related to the global market. It can be held or transferred in the world without approval. Therefore, fluctuations from anywhere in the world will affect the current total supply-demand relationship.

7. Price evaluation should be carried out. If the value exceeds 3000 yuan, it is suspected of fraud and sentenced to fixed-term imprisonment of not more than three years
if it is less than 3000 yuan, it does not constitute a crime and cannot be sentenced.

8. 1. Technology research and development
2. Exchange circulation