BTC Black Swan incident
Black swan event is a very unpredictable and unusual event, which usually leads to negative reaction or even subversion of the market chain
Generally speaking, "black swan" event refers to an event that meets the following three characteristics: it is unexpected; it is unexpected; it is unexpected; It has a significant impact; Although it is unexpected, human nature urges us to make up reasons for its occurrence afterwards, and more or less think it is explicable and predictableBlack Swan exists in all fields, no matter in financial market, business, economy or personal life, it can't escape its control“ "Grey rhinoceros" and "black swan" complement each other. The "grey rhinoceros incident" is too common for people to take for granted, while the "black swan incident" is extremely rare and unexpected
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about 400 years ago, Francis Bacon issued such a warning: beware of being bound by the threads of our own thoughts. But we always make this kind of mistake. We always think that what happened in the past is likely to happen again, so we can't help but rely on experience
for example, we often make up simple reasons or stories to explain complex things that we don't know yet (and most likely we don't know at all). Let's take a simple example: we can't predict whether the stock market will go up or down one day in the future. We can infer that the reasons for forecasting are either too simplistic or wrong at all
in fact, the really important events are unpredictable, which Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls "black swan". The author's argument is a heavy blow to those MBA students who rely on the prediction of economic development and even have won the Nobel Prize
generally speaking, "black swan" event refers to an event that meets the following three characteristics: it is unexpected; it is unexpected; it is unexpected; It has a significant impact; Although it is unexpected, human nature urges us to make up reasons for its occurrence afterwards, and more or less think it is explicable and predictable
Black Swan exists in all fields, no matter in financial market, business, economy or personal life, it can't escape its control“ "Grey rhinoceros" and "black swan" complement each other. The "grey rhinoceros incident" is too common for people to take for granted, while the "black swan incident" is extremely rare and unexpected.
The black swan event in the stock market, a common term in the financial market, is an unpredictable event, which is beyond the expected range of the normal situation and may cause serious consequences. It's a word that has been widely used by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former Wall Street trader, who wrote about it in his 2001 book, fouled by randomness
4. China's Black Monday is also known as the black swan event in the history of stock market. On Monday, August 24, 2015, China's stock market fell 8.5%, causing a serious collapse in the Shanghai Composite Index. This is the biggest one-day market crash in China since 2007
China's stock market began to rise in the early 1990s. Around 2000, there were more than 1000 listed companies in China's stock market. With more companies listed, investors flocked to Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and China's stock market and economy grew rapidly. By 2012, the number of listed companies between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges had increased to more than 2400, with a market value close to 50% of China's real GDP
at that time, many novices in China's stock market lacked stock market experience and were easy to be manipulated by others. When they make investment decisions, they are easily confused by rumors and superficial phenomena of the stock market, thus forming an impulse buying investment
this kind of blind investment and irrational purchase eventually led to the black swan incident in China's stock market. From July 8 to 9, 2015, the Shanghai stock market fell by 30% in three weeks. 1400 companies (or more than half of the listed companies) applied to suspend trading in order to prevent further losses
at that time, the New York Times reported as follows:
"... From June 2014 to June 2015, the price in Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by more than 150%, and in the NASDAQ style market, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shenzhen growth enterprise market, the price was even higher. Retail investors who borrowed to buy stocks contributed to the rise of the stock market. Pricing in the market is far from perfect. Once the price drops slightly, many of them will find that they need to sell, leading to a sharp adjustment in the market. "
— Nicholas lardy New York Times August 26, 2015
generally speaking, "black swan" event refers to an event that meets the following three characteristics: it is unexpected; it is unexpected; it is unexpected; It has a significant impact; Although it is unexpected, human nature urges us to make up reasons for its occurrence afterwards, and more or less think it is explicable and predictable
Black Swan exists in all fields, no matter in financial market, business, economy or personal life, it can't escape its control< Before the discovery of black swans in Australia, Europeans thought swans were white before the 17th century. But with the appearance of the first black swan, this unshakable belief collapsed. The existence of black swan implies an unpredictable rare event, which is unexpected but changes everything. Humans always believe in experience too much, and don't know that the appearance of a black swan is enough to subvert everything. However, no matter in the expectation of the stock market, the government's decision-making, or ordinary people's daily simple choice, black swan is unpredictable. The September 11 incident, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the snow disaster in China all confirmed this.
generally speaking, "black swan" event is an event that meets the following three characteristics:
first, it is unexpected
secondly, it has a significant impact
thirdly, although it is unexpected, human nature urges us to make up reasons for its occurrence afterwards, and more or less think it is explicable and predictable
in fact, the really big events are unpredictable, which Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls "black swan".
in 1992, the stock subscription certificate was determined to be 30 yuan per share. The initial information: the subscription certificate was listed four times in 1992, and more than 10 shares were issued. At that time, we didn't know whether to buy or not. No one had any experience in judging this issue. The issuing time of subscription certificate is 10 days. During the 10 day issuing period at that time, it is a test for the psychology of all eager people. In the 10 days after the issuance of subscription certificates, there was no enthusiastic over-the-counter sales, and there was no queuing phenomenon. The miracle of the stock subscription certificate issued in Shanghai in 1992 happened after all the subscription certificates were sold out. Due to the reform and opening up, the reform of the joint-stock system needs to be speeded up, and the original amount of shares to be issued has increased greatly. In 1992, the number of shares to be issued in Shanghai was increased to 50. Therefore, the subscription certificate became a rare treasure at that time, and Luoyang paper was expensive overnight. Take 100 subscription certificates as a unit to calculate, invest 3000 yuan in subscription certificates, and use tens of thousands of yuan as working capital to subscribe for shares. After subscribing for shares, sell them on the market, and continue to subscribe for new shares with the funds after selling them... In terms of average income, 100 subscription certificates can earn about 500000 yuan. However, the 500000 yuan 20 years ago can not be compared with the 500000 yuan today! It can be said that the stock subscription Certificate in 1992 created the first generation of large investors in Shanghai stock market, and a large number of people completed the original accumulation of capital on the road of life through the subscription certificate< After the Shanghai Stock Exchange officially opened (December 19, 1990), it continued to rise for two and a half years, but basically there was no market with price and the trading volume was too small. Finally, stimulated by the cancellation of the price limit on May 26, 1992, the stock index soared to a high of 1429 points. But it didn't last long. In only half a year, the stock index fell from 1429 to 386< In 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 333 points. In order to save the market, the relevant departments issued three favorable policies on July 29, 1994: 1; b. Strictly control the scale of rights issue of listed companies; c. Take measures to expand the scope of funds into the market, a month and a half, the stock index rose by 200%, up to 1052 points< The bull market from May 18, 1995 to May 22, 1995 had only three trading days, which was affected by the news that the management closed the Treasury Bond Futures (the 327 varieties of treasury bond futures were manipulated, and the last 10 minutes of trading was invalid, which was also unique in the world). In three days, the stock index rose from 582 to 926. Then the stock index plummeted again, forming a small bamboo shoot trend. 5. From January 19, 1996 to May 12, 1997, the market began to advocate high performance. Under the leadership of Shenzhen Development (from 6 yuan to 20.50 yuan, with ex right in the middle), the stock index returned to 1510. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 346%, far more than the Shanghai Composite Index's 124%. In this context, the above thought that the stock market had risen too much, so the people's Daily published a special commentator's article entitled "a correct understanding of the current stock market" and pointed out: if there is a sharp rise in the stock market, there will be a sharp fall! On the day of the publication of the article, with the introction of the price limit system, the market plummeted and the market fell by three consecutive limits< 6. Reallocation of shares
reallocation of shares refers to the shares subscribed by the public shareholders when the state-owned or legal person shareholders transfer the shares to the public e to lack of cash. Allotted shares is a unique variety in China's stock market, which came into being from 1994 to 1997. In recent years, it has been unable to be listed and circulated. In March 2000, China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) decided to graally arrange the listing and circulation of the transferred shares in about 24 months from April. The way of listing is to enter the secondary market by stages and in batches according to the time of the generation of the transferred shares. A total of 168 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have been allotted shares. The total amount of allotted shares is about 3.305 billion shares, accounting for 3.96% of the total number of a shares in circulation in the two markets< China Securities Regulatory Commission announced to open the B-share market to domestic investors, allowing domestic residents to conct B-share trading with legal foreign exchange. A large number of foreign currency funds deposited in the bank poured into the B-share market before February 19. On February 28, 2001, the trading limit of B shares rose on the first day of the resumption of trading. After a period of time, B share prices all the way up, the highest up to 230 points, trading was very active.