Fear and greed index bitcoin

1.

Fear when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are afraid. " Warren Buffett, the stock god, said this sentence in 2004, which has become a popular investment motto in China

greed and fear are the weaknesses of human nature, especially in the risky digital money market< in an absolute sense, every digital currency investor is engaged in an ideological struggle between buying or selling, or holding the currency when staring at the market every day, and therefore experiences the double suffering of greed and fear

bitcoin index quantifies the market participants' emotions through considerable data, which can give investors an objective reference, but only a reference . The core spirit of Warren Buffett's famous saying is not to let you go astray, but to remind investors to be rational, calm, independent and not blindly follow at any time. "Other people's fear" can not be your reason for "greed" and buying junk money. Similarly, in the face of the bright future of digital currency, "other people's greed" can not be the reason for your "fear". If you do not base your "own" making money on the mistakes of "other people", you can become a truly qualified rational investor

2.

The impact of the okex incident on the currency market is fading; With the US election becoming increasingly white hot, the difficulty and hash rate of bitcoin are higher than before

in terms of price, so far, BTC has rushed to around us $11720, with a 24-hour increase of more than 2%

so the question is: where will bitcoin go in the next week

here are five factors that may affect the BTC price trend in the coming week

No.1 US macro level: election and stimulus plan this week, the US is the absolute focus of the macro market. The US presidential election will soon usher in a decisive moment (November 3)

analysts warn that if the Democratic Party (Biden) wins, the dollar will depreciate - and the long-term outlook for the dollar is already precarious. Goldman Sachs said last week that Trump's re-election was not enough to get the dollar out of danger

however, no matter what the election result is, professionals recommend buying gold as a hedge. However, in the view of others, bitcoin may bring more profits

However, e to the inverse correlation between BTC / USD and the dollar currency index (DXY), the strength of the US dollar, in the view of some bitcoin traders, will still affect the price trend of bitcoin. Although this correlation has become less and less obvious in recent weeks, the sudden weakness of the US dollar is still likely to be a boon for bitcoin

six month chart of US dollar currency index. Source: tradingview

at the same time, not only the election, but also what happened before is also a topic of interest. Specifically, a coronavirus stimulus plan was in place before polling day

If this happens, trillions of dollars of liquidity will increase the growing debt pile of the United States, and Americans will see additional benefits, such as an additional $1200 economic stimulus plan

No.2 Europe suggests more intervention

with the outbreak again, the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further measures

European Central Bank President Christina; In an interview with Le Monde on Monday, Lagarde said the European Central Bank would use more financial instruments if necessary

the European Central Bank's coronavirus stimulus program has purchased a total of 1.5 trillion euros of assets

"We haven't run out of options in our toolbox yet," says Lagarde

brexit is increasingly moving towards "no agreement" brexit, which makes the possibility of instability worse

No.3 the fundamentals of bitcoin have reached a new high

recently, bitcoin has maintained a strong resilience in the face of various black swan events. Influenced by okex, BTC recently dropped below $11200, but recovered steadily soon. So far, it has exceeded $11600

and on the technical level, the fundamentals of bitcoin also maintained a record strength this month

two days ago, the difficulty of the latest adjustment increased by 3.5% than expected

at the same time, the hash rate also climbed to a record high on Monday. At the time of publication, the estimated computing power for mining is 146 exahashs (EH / s) per second

as often reported in the media, the popular theory is that the price follows the hash rate, because the long-term investment prospect of bitcoin is better than ever before

bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart

No.4 analysts focus on $12000 BTC price breakthrough

for famous analyst Micha & # 235; For Lvan de Poppe, the key price conversion of bitcoin is becoming more and more reasonable

in his latest video update on Sunday, he stressed that the significant resistance level of weekly closing price below US $12000 for several consecutive years will soon end

Van de Popper believes that since the beginning of the bear market in early 2018, US $12000 has become the rejection point of the weekly chart, but the consolidation below cannot last forever

he concluded: "we are likely to rebound to the range of US $16000 to US $17000, because this is the obvious level and the last obstacle for bitcoin to begin to break through the all-time high."

after this move, there will be another consolidation period, which may last longer than the current period

van der BOPP added that he advised viewers to work hard to accumulate bitcoin, even in the $16000 range

BTC / USD 7-day price trend chart. Data source: coin360

No.5 market sentiment: greed is back

with the graal strengthening of prices, investor sentiment is also changing: data shows that investor sentiment is becoming more and more greedy. In the latest market data, the fear and greed index has returned to the "greedy" area, rising slightly from "neutral" in the past week

this indicates that bitcoin investors' emotional expectations will be bullish, but it should be noted that if the price rises too fast, "greed" will become "extreme greed", in which case the index is more likely to callback

3. The impact of the okex incident on the currency market is fading; With the US election becoming increasingly white hot, the difficulty and hash rate of bitcoin are higher than before

in terms of price, so far, BTC has rushed to around us $11720, with a 24-hour increase of more than 2%

so the question is: where will bitcoin go in the next week

here are five factors that may affect the BTC price trend in the coming week<

No.1 US macro level: election and stimulus plan

this week, the US is the absolute focus of the macro market. The US presidential election will soon usher in a decisive moment (November 3)<

analysts warn that if the Democratic Party (Biden) wins, the dollar will depreciate - and the long-term outlook for the dollar is already precarious. Goldman Sachs said last week that Trump's re-election was not enough to get the dollar out of danger

however, no matter what the election result is, professionals recommend buying gold as a hedge. However, in the view of others, bitcoin may bring more profits

however, e to the inverse correlation between BTC / USD and US dollar currency index (DXY), the strength of US dollar will still affect the price trend of bitcoin in the view of some bitcoin traders. Although this correlation has become less and less obvious in recent weeks, the sudden weakness of the US dollar is still likely to be a boon for bitcoin

six month chart of US dollar currency index. Source: tradingview

at the same time, not only the election, but also what happened before is also a topic of interest. Specifically, a coronavirus stimulus plan was in place before polling day

if this happens, trillions of dollars of liquidity will increase the growing debt pile of the United States, and Americans will see additional benefits, such as an additional $1200 economic stimulus plan

No.2 Europe suggests more intervention

with the outbreak again, the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further measures

European Central Bank President Christina; In an interview with Le Monde on Monday, Lagarde said the European Central Bank would use more financial instruments if necessary

the European Central Bank's coronavirus stimulus program has purchased a total of 1.5 trillion euros of assets

Lagarde said: "we haven't exhausted the options in our toolbox."

brexit is increasingly moving towards "no agreement" brexit, which makes the possibility of instability worse<

the fundamentals of No.3 bitcoin have reached a new high

recently, bitcoin has maintained a strong resilience in the face of various black swan events. Influenced by okex, BTC recently dropped below $11200, but recovered steadily soon. So far, it has exceeded $11600

on the technical level, the fundamentals of bitcoin also maintained a record strength this month

two days ago, the difficulty of the latest adjustment increased by 3.5% than expected

at the same time, the hashing rate also climbed to an all-time high on Monday. At the time of publication, the estimated computing power for mining is 146 exahashs (EH / s) per second

as often reported in the media, the popular theory is that the price follows the hash rate, because the long-term investment prospect of bitcoin is better than ever before<

bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart

No.4 analysts focus on the $12000 BTC price breakthrough

for the famous analyst Micha & # 235; For Lvan de Poppe, the key price conversion of bitcoin is becoming more and more reasonable

in his latest video update on Sunday, he stressed that the significant resistance level of weekly closing price below $12000 for several consecutive years will soon end<

Van de Pope believes that since the beginning of the bear market in early 2018, US $12000 has become the rejection point of the weekly chart, but the consolidation below can not last forever

he concluded: "we are likely to rebound to the range of US $16000 to US $17000, because this is the obvious level and the last obstacle for bitcoin to begin to break through the all-time high."

after this move, there will be another consolidation period, which may last longer than the current period

van der BOPP added that he advised viewers to work hard to accumulate bitcoin, even in the $16000 range

BTC / USD 7-day price trend chart. Data source: coin360

No.5 market sentiment: greed is back

with the graal strengthening of prices, investor sentiment is also changing: data show that investor sentiment is becoming more and more greedy. In the latest market data, the fear and greed index has returned to the "greedy" area, rising slightly from "neutral" in the past week

this indicates that bitcoin investors' emotional expectations will be bullish, but it should be noted that if the price rises too fast, "greed" will become "extreme greed". In this case, the possibility of index correction is greater.

4.

CNN fear and greed index is also called VIX Index. Panic index = CBOE volatility index

because market participants are more willing to avoid risks when the index falls than when the index rises. Therefore, when the index falls, the hedging demand for buying put options will increase, and at the same time, it also pushes up the implied volatility of deep out of price put options. VIX reflects the views of option market participants on the degree of market volatility, so it is often used to judge the adverse trend index of market long short

extended data

from the past trend, the panic index to a certain extent reflects the market's expectation of future stock market "volatility". As a result, when the stock market falls sharply under the influence of bad news, the panic index (i.e. expected volatility) will rise rapidly

however, if the daily comparison is made, it is impossible to completely correspond to the daily trend of the stock market and the trend of the panic index on that day, because logically speaking, there is no need to completely correspond between the two, so the phenomenon of "sometimes there is a big difference between the rise and fall of the stock market and the trend of the panic index" will appear

5.

CNN fear and greed index is also known as "VIX Index"

1. The full name of VIX is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which is used to measure S & amp; The expected annualized volatility of the P 500 index in the next 30 days, usually using S & amp; The price of call / put options in recent months and adjacent months of the P 500 index is calculated

VIX is based on the implied volatility of options. In options trading, the implied volatility usually represents the expectation of the future risk degree of the market, so VIX is often regarded as the wind vane leading the market. A high VIX market often means the spread of panic, so VIX is also called "panic index" overseas

6. Panic index refers to the time when the crash, greed index is up crazy

7. It must be idle money, investment is risky, and it must be guaranteed that your investment loss will not affect your daily life. Do not operate in full position, and the position should not exceed 50%. Maintain a good attitude, establish their own operating system, the pursuit of stable operating style, risk control as the first premise, to earn their own profits. 1、 Choose your own mode of operation 1. Long term investment: suitable for investors who don't have time to pay attention to the market. Generally, long term refers to the holding time calculated by years. 2. Midline Investment: suitable for investors who pay less attention to the market time. Generally, midline refers to the holding time calculated in months. 3. Short term investment: suitable for investors who pay more attention to the market time. Generally, short term refers to the holding time calculated in weeks or days. 2、 Trend investment 1. We suggest that investors follow the trend to invest, not against the trend. 2. The principle of Trend Investment: when rising, don't measure the top, when falling, don't measure the bottom. The top and bottom are all coming out, not predicted. 3. Mattel effect: when the trend is formed, there will be strong and weak. At present, gold investment can be divided into two categories: one is physical gold trading, including gold bars, gold coins, gold jewelry, etc; The other is the so-called paper gold, that is, gold trading without physical gold intervention. At present, Bank of China, ICBC, CCB and other banks have paper gold business. Paper gold has the potential of high risk and high yield, the current investment group is large. Gold speculation skills: first, investment and financial management should be closely combined with their own financial situation and financial style, that is to say, the purpose of personal gold speculation must be clear, you invest in gold, the intention is to earn a price difference in the short term? Or as a low-risk component of personal comprehensive financial management, is it intended to hedge risks and maintain and increase value in the long run? For most non professional gold speculators, the latter purpose accounts for the majority, so it may be more appropriate to speculate in the medium and long term. They should focus on the trend of gold price, choose a suitable buying point to intervene in the gold market and make medium and long-term investment. Rich families with more spare money can choose to invest in physical gold and make full use of its function of value preservation and risk avoidance to reserve gold for their families. And the financiers who are keen to fight in and out of the financial market and make profits from investment can choose gold voucher trading. If such financiers can better grasp the stock market, they can move similar skills to the gold market, and then spend a certain amount of time and energy to pay attention to and analyze the international economic and political situation, they can boldly enter the gold T + D trading market. Second, gold investment should consider exchange rate changes, oil prices and international situation. These are the three major factors that affect the long-term trend of gold price. The trend of gold price is generally opposite to that of US dollar. When US dollar depreciates, gold price tends to rise, and vice versa; The price of gold changes in the same direction as the international oil price. Generally, the price of oil rises, the price of gold rises, the price of oil falls, and the price of gold falls; Gold is also a means to prevent war and other natural and man-made disasters, so when the international political situation is tense, people tend to invest in gold. At present, the biggest international political factor affecting the gold price is the development of the situation in Iran. Third, it's better to buy the lead to rise than to buy the lead to fall. T + D pursues the high and kills the low. Gold trading, like stock and foreign exchange trading, should abide by this principle. In the process of price rise, every moment of buying behavior should be said to be correct, only one point should not be bought, that is, when the gold price rises to the top and turns. The main purpose of this theory is to remind investors that in the spot trading of gold, they should not pay one-sided attention to the price level, and ignore the trend of whether the gold price is in a big bear or bull. When making t + D short investment (i.e. buying or falling), we should also pay attention to the curve of change. Generally speaking, t + D investment is suitable to catch up with the high and kill the low

8. It is learned from books that Buffett's understanding of "greed and fear" in the stock market is fear when others are greedy and greed when others are afraid
in short, this is the application of reverse thinking in the stock market, using market sentiment to make investment. In the stock market, the use of market sentiment, the use of reverse thinking, Buffett is a master
behind the stock market figures is the embodiment of human nature. Because want to make money to enter the stock market, but the stock market make money faster, lose money faster, so greed and fear in the stock market show incisively and vividly. The connotation of human nature is very broad, but the most typical human nature reflected in the market is greed and fear. It can be said that few people doubt this view
a retail investor without strict training who makes money on a stock wants to make more money; If you lose money on a stock, you will be afraid to lose more if the stock price continues to fall. It's all human nature. If the market environment is good and the effect of making money in the stock market is high, more funds will be attracted to participate in the game. The fall of the market index will make many retail investors leave the market because they don't know where and how long the index will fall
the stock market is a zero sum game, and the money earned is the money lost by others. The main force and institutions take advantage of the greed and fear of the retail investors, suppress the stock price at the bottom, force the retail investors to fear cutting the flesh, and collect the chips lost by the retail investors; At the top, we take advantage of the greed of retail investors and give them chips to get money to leave the market
some people divide the bull market into the early stage, the middle stage and the end stage. Retail investors in the early bull market doubt, dare not enter; In the middle of the bull market, small positions try to make a little money; At the end of the bull market, with the index advancing upward and the effect of making money high, retail investors will take part in the bull market. Institutional investors, on the other hand, build their positions in the early stage of the bull market, and the biggest profit is in the middle stage of the bull market. At the end of the bull market, institutional investors have sold their stocks in batches and made profits. Institutional investors really take advantage of market sentiment and use reverse thinking to earn money from retail investors
when we look at the current mode of making money with hot money, we can also find that hot money makes good use of reverse thinking and market sentiment. Hot money adopts the pattern of playing board to earn the premium of the next day. Most retail investors are afraid to buy at the price limit. They are afraid of heights and big noodles
in the stock market, if retail investors can control their greed and fear, the result will be quite different from before!

9. People who have a trading experience will realize that "fear and greed" always haunt you like a devil, making you struggle in indecision. It's wrong to act and it's wrong not to act. When you need "greed", you are afraid, and when it's time to "fear", you are greedy. So we can hear a lot about "conquering fear and greed" and using iron discipline to restrain ourselves. In short, we hope to deal with fear and greed by means of control, and finally we want to overcome ourselves and greed by conquering ourselves. This kind of psychological tendency, the direction is fundamentally wrong, your fear and greed can not be "defeated". There is no difference between "fear" and "greed" in trading. It can be said that fear and greed are the driving forces for people to participate in speculative trading. Because you fear that your money will be less, so you have to speculate; Because you want your money to become more and more, you should also participate in speculation. Fear and greed are human's inner nature and your inner being. How can you "defeat" your being. The root cause of greed is your ignorance. If you know that "meat" is hanging at the top of the trap, you will not greedily take that piece of meat (of course, there are such people). Therefore, the way to deal with "greed" is not to "overcome" externally, but to make you become more and more aware internally. Be aware of the existence of market energy; Be aware of the existence of all players in the market; Be aware of your inner fear and greed. Then you won't don't become Don Quixote. Fear is your first life experience since you were born, otherwise you would not have been born crying endlessly. Fear is also your inner quality. How can you overcome your inner quality. The more you want to overcome fear, the more setbacks you will encounter. Because your "victory" is either a shaking activity, or a "heroic" act. Both results are by-procts of fear. The only way to get rid of fear is not through "overcoming fear", but through "deepening fear" and "accepting fear". Only by accepting fear completely can fear disappear. In trading, your biggest fear is "want to win, fear to lose" and fear to lose. So there is such a saying in the transaction: "love your loss, let the profit grow naturally"“ Unless you can accept your loss, you can make a steady profit. "These statements are not nonsense. So the point is not to focus on how you can overcome fear and greed, but to be aware of what's going on in the market. What is your risk exposure strategy? Do you have a flexible capital management skill that changes with the market? You know, it's impossible for your mind to focus on multiple points.

10. I think they all show a person's character and pursuit.