Bitcoin difficulty trend
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
In terms of technological innovation, people who know blockchain are very supportive; About the future trend of bitcoin, as the earliest blockchain proct, it has been basically in the market. As for how big a pie there will be in the future, you can see my share
[John McPhee, the head of IBM and the board of directors of PayPal all predict that bitcoin will reach $1 million]
in recent days, the market has slowed down temporarily. However, this has not deterred investors. As previously reported, although some bearish pressure is forming, bulls have responded well and kept prices stable
since bitcoin failed to break through $5450, bitcoin bulls have kept the price above $5000. Recently, after a stable weekend, there was almost no report on the price trend, and the market rose appropriately. Now all attention is turning to $5200 as the next key target, and finally retesting the resistance level of $5450
as of April 15, the marginal revenue of bitcoin was less than 2%, and the transaction price was $5160. Earlier in the day, it had risen to a high of $5193, but failed to reach the target of $5200
Then bitcoin fell back to US $5157. The high degree of stability and flexibility that bulls maintain and push prices up shows how strong the current bull market is. As long as bitcoin can remain above $5000 and avoid a sharp correction, the bullish trend will continue to get more support and push prices higherthe price of bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million
a few weeks after PayPal first invested in blockchain technology, its latest board of directors made a bold price forecast for bitcoin. Wences Casares, a member of PayPal's board, said bitcoin could reach $1 million in the next 10 years. IBM blockchain & amp; Jesse Lund and John McAfee, directors of digital currency, have also made such predictions, which many believe are overconfident
in my (subjective) opinion, the chance of success is at least 50%. If bitcoin really succeeds, a bitcoin could be worth more than $1 million in seven to 10 years
the growth of bitcoin has driven Shanzhai coin
with the rise of bitcoin, most Shanzhai coins are also rising. Although the income is relatively low, most Shanzhai coins have about 1% to 4% income, but this growth is likely to continue
before the deadline, lightcoin's LTC was one of the best performing currencies. In the past few weeks, the performance of this coin has been extraordinary, which seems to determine the price trend of Shanzhai coin again
XRP and eth are also on the rise, but the marginal returns are 0.30% and 1.26% respectively. XRP's short-term goal is to return above $0.33, and its long-term goal is above $0.4. On the other hand, ETH hopes to climb back to more than $170, becoming its next target, and its preferred position is more than $190
blockchain is the underlying system of distributed ledger in bitcoin. Bitcoin ledgers are built in a distributed and spontaneous way. Anyone can generate new currency blocks by performing specific cryptographic calculations, so as to obtain a digital "currency" that can be used for transactions. Bitcoin's impact on the world monetary system can be said to be subversive, which is also an important reason why it has attracted a lot of people's strong attention since it came out. After that, there were dozens of similar electronic currencies such as
"lightcoin". The abstract extraction of distributed digital currency technology from bitcoin forms a "blockchain" technology, which can be used in more fields
bitcoin and other virtual digital currencies are only an application scenario of blockchain technology. Theoretically speaking, based on the characteristics of blockchain technology, human beings can create a very rich form of services and procts. There are a large number of scenarios in finance, government, enterprises, cross instry and other fields, which are suitable for blockchain technology and have broad prospects. At present, many countries around the world have started the research of blockchain technology, and a series of instry organizations and alliances have been established. However, as blockchain technology is a brand-new technology, which subverts the traditional centralized mode, major institutions are still in the research stage, with only a small number of actual projects landing, and the great development of the instry has just begun
now, blockchain economy is on the eve of outbreak. The exploration of financial instry is ahead of others, while the application of other instries is developing rapidly. The obvious advantage of blockchain instry application is to optimize business process, rece operation cost and improve collaborative efficiency. This advantage has been graally reflected in financial services, Internet of things, public services, social welfare and supply chain management
as the backbone of emerging technologies, blockchain is not only used in the field of virtual currency, but also in other fields such as finance, medical care, intellectual property certification, etc. a large number of excellent enterprises have emerged in China to explore or enter the blockchain instry. According to the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry released by foresight Instry Research Institute, as of the end of 2016, there were 105 blockchain related enterprises in China, 80% of which were concentrated in eastern coastal cities, including Shanghai, Hangzhou and Taipei
trustworthiness is the core requirement of blockchain, and the importance of standards and specifications is becoming increasingly prominent
in the future value delivery network based on blockchain, we will completely use algorithms and software to build the trust foundation. However, we believe that this is far from enough, and we need the standard to increase the credibility of the blockchain. In the future, the standard of blockchain will standardize the technology and governance of blockchain from the perspective of users, business oriented, and from the dimensions of smart contract, consensus mechanism, private key security, and authority management, so as to enhance the credibility of blockchain and add weight to the trust of blockchain.
bitcoin has entered the downward channel, showing a cliff like decline
since then, bitcoin has entered the downward channel, and the myth of bitcoin's sudden wealth is being shattered. According to the latest data of the "in depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry" released by foresight Instry Research Institute, on June 25, bitcoin fell to US $6160. The previous trading day, bitcoin fell below US $6000, a new low in the past six months. Compared with the record high of US $19187 in December 2017, the decline was as high as 68%
the total number of bitcoin is 21 million. According to this estimate, the total market value of bitcoin in December last year was as high as US $402.9 billion, and now it has shrunk to 129.36 billion yuan. In the past six months, the total market value of bitcoin has evaporated US $273.567 billion, which is about 1.79 trillion yuan at the current exchange rate
at the same time, other cryptocurrencies also fell. Ethereum eth has dropped from a peak of $1350 at the beginning of the year to around $454.9 at present, with a cumulative decline of 66%. The LTC of Leyte currency dropped from the highest of $342.25 in December last year to the current $80.99, with a cumulative decline of 76.34%
the negative feedback of price decline is being transmitted in the instrial chain. Under the pressure of cryptocurrency market price, bitmain and Canaan, the top two Chinese manufacturers of bitcoin mining machines, may cut 50% of the orders of chip companies TSMC and Samsung Electronics
stricter supervision is a sign of chaos
stricter supervision worldwide is the main reason for the sharp decline of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin
on June 22, Japan's Finance Department officially issued an order to improve the business of six cryptocurrency exchanges, including bitflyer, quoine, bitpointjapan, bitbank, btcbox6 and tech
Bureau
bitflyer, Japan's largest digital currency exchange, immediately suspended the opening of new accounts and carried out rectification, especially in its anti money laundering and control of terrorist funds. Japan has developed into one of the largest bitcoin trading markets. As soon as the news came out, the price of bitcoin fell to a new half year low
on June 10, coinrail, the cryptocurrency exchange of South Korea, said that its system had suffered "network intrusion", which also led to a sharp drop in bitcoin after its opening
judging from the change of regulatory attitude, countries have previously held an open and embracing attitude towards blockchain technology. However, with the rising price of bitcoin and the increasing use of ICO for illegal financing, the application of blockchain technology has "deteriorated", the speculative activities have increased significantly, and the cross-border capital outflow has been boosted, The attitude of regulators is also changing
the tightening of supervision will lead to the shrinkage of trading volume and the decline of activity, because the pricing mechanism of bitcoin price is highly positively correlated with the number of participants, which will lead to the decline of bitcoin price. Of course, we don't think bitcoin or digital currency will die out. As long as there is a trading caliber in the world, bitcoin will not die out. It's just a decline in valuation
blockchain technology - a potential change technology in the future
the "hype" capital of bitcoin represents the capital with strong risk preference in the financial market. Bitcoin is characterized by decentralization. As a distributed virtual currency, bitcoin is charged by users independently, and there is no unified regulatory core, such as the Central Bank of each major economy that supervises legal currency. Moreover, the development of bitcoin markets in different countries is different, so it is difficult to coordinate and supervise them. The characteristics of bitcoin make it more speculative
from the perspective of diffusion, bitcoin's recent sharp decline may be transmitted to risky assets such as stocks and commodities, which will depress the risk preference of the global capital market
block chain technology is not a bubble in itself, but bitcoin may be a bubble. Bitcoin is the first representative application of blockchain, but blockchain is not the same as bitcoin. The decentralized and distributed storage of blockchain technology has great application value. It is a potential new technology in the future. It is optimistic about the development of blockchain technology for a long time.
Peter boockvar, chief investment officer of bleakey Consulting Group. I won't be surprised if the price of bitcoin drops to $1000 to $3000 in the next year, because bitcoin is not really relevant in this $19 trillion economy. Any commodity with a parabolic rise in price will usually fall back to the starting point< However, I'm not sure whether bitcoin will slow down or plummet suddenly
the implementation of loose monetary policy by central banks such as the Federal Reserve is the main reason for people's enthusiasm for virtual money. As interest rates graally return to the right track, virtual money will collapse. Once there is a crack in the virtual currency market, investors' attitude towards high-risk assets will also change, and the stock market may be injured. All this depends on the market psychology and has nothing to do with the economic fundamentals. "
Emma, the first one is scared to pee, so hurry to add a BTC
Soros
"as a currency, it should have a stable value storage function. The fluctuation of bitcoin in a day can be as high as 25%, which means that it is not feasible to pay wages with bitcoin
compared with the rapid collapse, the price of bitcoin may remain at a flat high. The reason why the outcome of bitcoin may be different is that some people, such as dictators, want to store wealth overseas through bitcoin
, however, can not change the nature of bitcoin as a typical bubble. It is based on misunderstanding as well as tulip fever. p> It seems that BTC is not reliable. But an alligator is an alligator. There's something in it, but it's not clear. I have an epiphany. You can do it yourself
Robert Shiller, Nobel Laureate in economics and professor of economics at Yale University, reminds me of the tulip craze that took place in the Netherlands in the 1640's. basically, bitcoin has no value unless some market participants believe it is valuable. In contrast, gold has some uses even if it is not used as an investment commodityup to now, people still pay for tulips, and sometimes the price is even quite high. In contrast, bitcoin is afraid to collapse completely and then be forgotten by the public. However, bitcoin may still exist for a long time, or even last for 100 years "
I don't understand, thank you
"Bitcoin and blockchain attract people's attention because they think it's an 'interesting experiment'". If it succeeds, it may change the world more than the Internethowever, it is also possible to fail, and the probability of failure is at least 20%. It is suggested that the amount of cryptocurrency held should be controlled within the range of bearable loss
the main reason for bitcoin's failure is that people put too much money into bitcoin and can't afford to lose money. "
raise so much money from all over the world just for an interesting experiment? Give me 0.005 BTC
dailyfx, a professional financial media of Fuhui group, said: "as the price of bitcoin failed to rebound to its historical peak in December, the price continued to fall. But objectively speaking, although the price of bitcoin fluctuates greatly, it will not fall by 50%. On the disk, the price has obvious support at the 11750 / 160 level, and the price rebounds above or after touching the support level; If the price falls below this point, it may continue to fall later
the price of Ethereum may break through the current slope area, but it will reach 1380 in the short term from the low point of 500 in December, or it will show that the bull rally is almost exhausted. Therefore, if the price does not fall in the later period, it will be more likely to consolidate. At present, the first support is at 863. If the price is still up, it will be a good opportunity for bulls to make another correction
in the later period, Ruibo currency may be in the trend of high consolidation or downward correction. As the price fell below the support level of 2.1577 yesterday, it continued to fall. In view of the sharp rise in prices last month, it is still unclear which point the current price will stabilize after falling or hitting. Therefore, it is still necessary to be cautious about the trading of Ruibo currency. "
The stock review has been changed to currency review. Brother, I recommend a coin circle of Guizhou Maotai Dennis gartman, founder of the "king of commodities" gartman news agency, said: "nothing can change my skepticism about bitcoin. Bitcoin will bring disaster to all those involved. At the same time, once this happens, investors will rush to the gold market. There is no doubt that bitcoin will fall below $5000. " It seems that it is necessary to collect some gold2. Good prediction
cesares, member of PayPal's board of directors
"the probability of successful bitcoin and blockchain experiments is more than 50%. But instry participants must be patient, because it will take another five to 10 years to achieve solid success
if the experiment is successful, the world will be very different. By then, the value of a bitcoin will reach one million dollars. Therefore, most people in the world will want to buy bitcoin in the price range of $14000 or $20000. "
previously, it was said that the probability of failure is at least 20%. Now it is said that the probability of success is more than 50%. You have all the good words and bad words. Do you owe a BTC
analyst van Petersen of Shengbao bank
"the price of bitcoin is likely to reach $50000 to $100000 in 2018. Digital currencies other than bitcoin will also soar
first of all, you may think that the price of bitcoin has been properly adjusted. After all, it has dropped by 50%, which is healthy. But we haven't seen the full effect of futures contracts
this year, Ethernet may surpass bitcoin, and it will appear later than bitcoin, but it has a more unified leadership position than bitcoin. "
He was right about this guy last time. When the transaction price of bitcoin was below $900 in December 2016, he predicted that bitcoin would reach $2000 in 2017. As a result, bitcoin exceeded $2000 in May 2017. However, it is predicted that eth will surpass BTC. Well, it's not impossible for the second child to seek power to usurp the throne and kill the first child. It's just difficultMichael Graham, analyst at canaccord genuity, an investment company, said, "one of our themes is that more institutions will enter the cryptocurrency market in 2018. The number of institutional investment procts related to bitcoin is increasing. Regulators will approve a bitcoin Trading Fund in the second half of this year or early 2019
I confirm that this year, the public will see IPOs from some encryption companies and more widely from blockchain companies. "
it's better for me to break the news! CBOE applied for six cryptocurrency ETFs at the end of 2017 and may go online in 2018. What the hell is this? That is to say, it increases the opportunity for institutional investors to have close contact with cryptocurrency and opens channels for professional speculators
Tom Lee, co-founder of fundstrat and super bull of bitcoin, predicts that the bottom of bitcoin will be about $9000. If it falls to this position, we will buy strongly, and $9000 is the best time to enter this yearit is estimated that bitcoin will rise to US $25000 by the end of the year and US $125000 by 2022
bitcoin has experienced many ups and downs, but it always stands back to the previous high point, and the low point becomes a good opportunity to buy
since the middle of 2016, bitcoin has risen more than 75% for five times and plummeted more than 25% for six times. Similar ups and downs in the stock market will take several years, but the virtual currency world can do it in a few months
also optimistic about three kinds of virtual currency. The first is eth, which has the function of smart contract and has a bright future. It is estimated that eth will rise from the current US $1000 to US $1900 at the end of this year. The second is etc, a virtual hybrid of bitcoin and Ethernet, which will rise from the current $25 to $60 at the end of the year. The third is the virtual currency Neo developed by China, whose price will rise from US $114 to US $225 at the end of the year. "
Say! How much did the project give you? I'd like to introce you to Mr. Ali, chief investment officer of blocktower capital, a cryptocurrency investment company; Ari Paul"at some point in 2018, the price of bitcoin can be as low as $4000 or as high as $30000."
Go awayJulian hope, co-founder and President of tenx
"bitcoin may break the $60000 mark in 2018, but it may also drop to the bottom of $5000, but it's not sure which one will come first, surprise or scare."
go away + 1
Nick colas, analyst of datatrek research, a data analysis organization, said, "the fluctuation of bitcoin in 2018 will exceed that in 2017, and the fluctuation may range from US $6500 to US $22000, all of which are reasonable valuations. And $14035 would be a reasonable median. In addition, there will be four price collapses of bitcoin in 2018, with the magnitude of each collapse being about 40% or more. "
are there still four opportunities for bottom selling and position increase this year
George Tung, co-founder of cryptos r us and a veteran of cryptocurrency investment, will we see another virtual currency whose market value exceeds that of bitcoin? Yes, I believe it is absolutely possible in the next three to five years. Or as soon as three years, there will be competitors who can compete with bitcoin. "the 3000 year old little demon wants to kill the 7000 year old demon? It's still tender
Lex Sokolin, global head of financial technology strategy, automous research, said, "the currency circle may usher in a new round of" furcation frenzy "in 2018, with a maximum of 50 furcation times!" Pro, we are here to talk about the price. What do you mean by having a second childafter two consecutive days of plummeting, according to the data of the "in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry" released by foresight Instry Research Institute, on June 13, Beijing time, the price of bitcoin fell below $6500, the lowest level since February this year. Bitcoin used to cost $6463. Since the beginning of this year, cryptocurrency has faced more and more resistance. Bitcoin, which has the largest total market value, has been fluctuating since it reached a record high (nearly US $20000) in December last year, with a cumulative decline of about 50% this year
from the United States, South Korea, Japan and other governments' supervision of cryptocurrency to the prohibition of cryptocurrency trading by visa, Bank of America and other large financial institutions, and to the prohibition of cryptocurrency advertising by internet giants such as Facebook, Google and twitter, the price of bitcoin has been aggravated by the recent multiple bad news
several exchanges were stolen
on June 10, coinrail, the cryptocurrency exchange of South Korea, was attacked by hackers, and more than US $40 million of unknown cryptocurrencies such as pundi
x were stolen. Subsequently, the prices of bitcoin, Ethereum, reborn and lightcoin all dropped more than 10% in one day
on June 29, 2017, bithumb, the largest bitcoin exchange in South Korea and the top five in the world, was found to have been hacked, and more than 30000 customers' personal information was stolen. According to the market value at that time, the loss amounted to 7.6 billion won
on January 26, coincheck, the largest trading volume exchange in Japan, suspended the trading of all cryptocurrencies except bitcoin. The trigger was that hackers attacked 260000 users and stole NEM, a new digital token, with a loss value of about US $530 million
bitcoin is likely to graally lose its loyal fans
bitcoin is now a widely recognized financial asset in the financial market, and many factors will lead to its price fluctuations, such as the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. At present, this round of price adjustment is still in progress since the beginning of the year. After all, in 2017, the price of bitcoin soared more than 20 times
bitcoin has been sold. From December 2017 to April 2018, bitcoin worth 30 billion US dollars has been sold. According to chainalysis, bitcoin's market liquidity has increased by nearly 60% in recent months. Bitcoin is likely to be losing its fans
the initial growth of bitcoin does rely on loyal fans. In recent years, the demand for investment has increased. However, bitcoin is still an asset with strong consensus foundation in the blockchain field, and long-term holders may waver. However, when they find that other cryptocurrencies are more risky, bitcoin may return to the vision of investors
since the beginning of the year, the price of bitcoin has been in a bear market cycle. At present, the bear market is still going on, and the periodic rebound will be obvious, but the overall situation is still in a weak adjustment. The probability of further weakening is relatively large, but the space will be relatively small.