Bitcoin in stock market

1. How to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin

coincola coying Cola
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how to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin
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recently, "bitcoin broke through $8000" has been on the hot search. For a while, bitcoin rose, reborn rose sharply, and Ethereum led the rise... A week later, this big play dominated by bitcoin didn't seem to come to an end, and the trading volume was once pushed up to 100 billion US dollars

in the investment world, "madness" and "fear" coexist. Today's "madness" stems from last year's long-term "fear". However, this time, coincola Cola Research Institute tracks and analyzes the technical indicators behind the rising market, and deconstructs the "passion" of the market with the "rationality" of data< (1) mining and bitcoin price

start with the relationship between mining and bitcoin. The core technology of bitcoin is "blockchain", which is connected by blocks. Each block corresponds to a bill. All transaction information and transfer records of bitcoin are recorded on the blockchain. Every other point in time, the bitcoin system will generate a random code on the system node. Due to distributed accounting, all computers on the Internet can search for the code. Whoever finds the code will generate a block and then get bitcoin. This process is mining. Calculating this random code requires a lot of GPU operations, so miners need to use mining machines with massive graphics cards to make profits

1. Bitcoin computing power: starting to pick up

remarks: June 2018-may 2019 bitcoin hash value

data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute

the above figure shows the bitcoin hash value. The hash value of the bitcoin network represents the computing power of the blockchain. The growth of computing power means that miners increase mining investment or increase the number of miners. Since the second half of 2018, the hash value has recovered from falling back to picking up, from 32eh / s at the end of the year to 50eh / s now, and the recent growth trend is remarkable. The continuous growth of bitcoin hash value (representing computing power) indicates that the market is optimistic about the future of bitcoin

2. Mining difficulty: stepped up

remarks: bitcoin difficulty from June 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute

the figure above shows bitcoin difficulty. Since 2019, the difficulty of bitcoin mining has increased in a step-by-step manner, from the low 5T to the current 7T. It can be seen that the rapid rise of bitcoin in this round has reced mining costs and increased market entry personnel. The increasing difficulty of mining means that there are profit opportunities in cryptocurrency market, and the market is generally optimistic< (2) the number of active addresses and transactions on the chain are important indicators reflecting the activity of cryptocurrency, which are highly correlated with the price of cryptocurrency

1. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain: a straight line rise

remarks: the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019

data source: coinmetrics, coincola Research Institute

active addresses refer to the addresses where transactions have taken place every day, that is, how many independent addresses conct transfer transactions on the chain every day. Since 2019, the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain has been rising, especially in recent years. From 540.60143k in January to 832.592k now. It shows that the rapid growth of active users of cryptocurrency is a very positive signal for the market

2. The number of transactions on the bitcoin chain: continued to rise

remarks: the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute

since 2019, the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain has continued to rise, from 235k in early 2019 to 374k now. Moreover, since April and may, after two rounds of sharp rise in the price of bitcoin, the number of transactions on the chain has remained at a high level, even showing signs of a short-term surge< (3) lightning network and bitcoin price

in essence, lightning network adds a layer to the basic layer of bitcoin blockchain in order to make the transaction fast and cheap. With the existence of lightning network, users can remit money to each other at any time and pay very little. Lightning network represents not only the technical level of bitcoin, but also the important basis of bitcoin value

1. Lightning network nodes: rapid growth

remarks: bitcoin lightning network nodes from January 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute

the test version of lightning network started on the bitcoin main network on March 15, 2018. The number of lightning network nodes was only 64 at the beginning of 2018 and increased to 2329 at the end of 2018. Since 2019, the number of lightning network nodes has increased rapidly, and now it has reached 4289. In less than half a year, the number of nodes has doubled. The continuous expansion of nodes indicates the continuous upgrading and development of bitcoin lightning network technology, which is an important indicator of bitcoin price

2. Lightning network capacity: speed up

remarks: bitcoin lightning network capacity from January 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute

the data above shows that as of May 15, 2019, bitcoin lightning network capacity has increased to 1039 BTC, equivalent to 833usd, while at the beginning of 2019, it is only 504btc, Lightning network capacity doubled, and the growth rate accelerated. This means that the expansion of bitcoin has been well solved in lightning network technology, which will help keep the payment channel active and effectively support the functional application of bitcoin

the performance of mining, chain trading and lightning network is closely related to the price of bitcoin. On the one hand, the rise of bitcoin price acts as a catalyst to stimulate its performance in mining, chain and lightning network; On the other hand, mining, chain trading and lightning network are the important cornerstone of bitcoin price trend and the important basis of bitcoin price expectation<

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yesterday, he discussed bitcoin with people, and then suddenly found that the surge brought by the listing of futures may be the pit g by some big institutions, Bitcoin could collapse shortly after CME's CBOE listing. After the listing, the price will maintain a certain stability in a certain range

2. 1. Stock dividend, bitcoin no dividend? As we all know, the so-called dividend is to directly rece the stock price, to a big Yin line, as if to play is to give the dividend money to their own money minus the game? So there's no difference between dividends and no dividends? If the stock price is 10 yuan and the annual dividend is 1 yuan, does that mean that your cost price is 0 yuan ten years later? OK, if the stock is not traded, the stock price is also 0 yuan... It's equal to zero return on your investment in 10 years
2? This is the funniest game. The so-called "10 for 10" is meaningless to split one's own stock into two, and change one's own 100 Yuan paper into two pieces of 50 Yuan paper. If bitcoin is set to 1:10, it is not equal to the so-called 1:10.. What's the value
3, the problem of net worth growth? The stock represents the company, which has land and land. If the weather is good, the net value will increase year after year, and the land in the hands of landlords will be more and more, but it seems that it has nothing to do with our small shareholders. For example? Can I exchange Maotai shares for a bottle of Maotai wine? For example, can I exchange bank shares for a banking department? I have 10000 bank shares. I'm a shareholder, but I'm old. Can the bank ask me to look at the gate of the bank? If there is a natural or man-made disaster, such as the explosion of Sinopec, stone milk powder, or a profit transfer, someone else will buy 3000 computers, and the listed company's account will change to 3 in case, what can we do? Can you protest strongly? Or can I withdraw
4. As for the problem of large shareholders, more than 5% of the shares can be listed, but the total assets of my generation, my next generation and my next generation can not be listed. It seems that it is empty talk. I will never have the right to speak. At least I haven't seen that small shareholders' online voting can change the company's resolutions, let alone the company's daily resolutions... I believe that the security guards will drive me out before I get to the door of the listed company
5. Gambling is not allowed in a certain country. It seems that the stock market is a legal gambling market. Of course, everyone knows that the final winner is the casino. But since it's a gamble, now that there are so many gambling instries, it's better to watch a game at the weekend. Who will win the gamble and put on the hundreds of dollars that are idle for your body and mind?

3. How does bitcoin's sense of unfairness come into being
1. Different issuers, the state or the central bank controls you in the sovereign monetary system, no matter how much wealth you are deprived of, because you are a vulnerable group. According to a series of factors such as herd mentality, you never dare to think that this is abnormal. The "issuers" of bitcoin (let's call them issuers here) can only exchange the initial wealth at one time. They are just early practitioners and can't control the system. These people do not have the same power as a sovereign state, so they think they should not be so "cool"? At the same time, I think this is the game currency. What are you doing
2. People who don't understand the whole system (usually onlookers, because they don't hold it, they don't really care about money and seriously understand bitcoin), we call them target groups, for example,
there is a phenomenon in Psychology: A, one day, you and a bully (or someone you think is very strong), a person with the same status as you, At the same time, I found that there was a huge amount of money of 1 million on the ground, and the bully (or you think it's very strong) picked it up first, so you and the person of the same status would not have any resistance; However, if you or someone with the same status as you pick it up, the other party will have a very unbalanced psychology and will want to solve it by force, while the bully will decide whether to intervene or not according to whether the incident affects his fundamental interests. B. It's the same thing above. If a bully picks up a million dollars every day, you two people of the same status will not yell, and you and people of the same status will never pick up the million dollars again, but the other side will still hate the other side. Above a, B hypothesis can continue to write for a long time, this is human nature, will exist for a long period of history
3. In this era, people's overall consciousness has not been advanced. Most people still only believe in hegemony. They worship the strong in different fields and trust the currency of the hegemonic system more. This will not change for a long period of time. This is connected with the political and governance system. In fact, the financial progress and even political progress involved in bitcoin are too advanced to be seen clearly at present, which is also caused by the limitation of human understanding. So many people who only engage in finance do not understand the Internet and bitcoin. Those who understand the Internet and are not familiar with finance can not persuade those who engage in finance, but those who do not understand politics or systems can not fully understand it. Among the governance systems of Europe and the United States, Germany's political system is the closest to "system governance", which is closely related to why Germany first recognized the currency status of bitcoin...

if the initial or centralized holders of bitcoin do not abandon bitcoin, what will they do? How to make it a universal currency
1. The popularity of bitcoin has many dimensions. From a small number of huge holders to the public holders is a dimension. Bitcoin is widely accepted in different countries, cultures, regions and consumption fields. There are also multiple dimensions. These dilution processes are also related to the prosperity and time of the world's major sovereign currencies. It's a huge chemical reaction and it's irreversible. A large number of supporters are only one-time issuers. This dilution is irreversible, so there is no need to worry about it
2. Worry that bitcoin will be replaced by later powerful electronic currency? That's for sure, and the worry is too far ahead of time. It's faster than the speed of light. There is no permanent form of money, which can be seen from the development of money, and with the weakening of the concept of guaijia, the sovereign currency Hui withdrew from the stage of history. The era of more powerful e-money may intersect with bitcoin, maybe after the heyday of bitcoin, but it is unlikely to appear before the heyday of bitcoin. If there is such a situation, it must be driven by a strong external force. It's unlikely that

4.

The epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is out of control again. Winter is coming. It is estimated that it will become more and more serious from this winter to next spring. It will have a huge impact on global politics and economy, and will cause continued turbulence in financial markets. In the face of the epidemic, governments have no choice but to continue printing money

for gold, digital currency is good. For digital currency, at present, in addition to the central banks' water release, the scale of stable currencies such as usdt of the central bank in the currency circle has been more than five times of the previous, which provides sufficient ammunition for the subsequent rise. Bitcoin's monthly line, weekly line and daily line are in good shape. The bull market will not really open until it stands at 12500

once bitcoin gets up, Wright and BCH, which have been silent for several years, will follow suit. In view of more emergencies, it is recommended to hold spot

5.

There have been relevant discussions in Jingxuan finance and economics , and I will summarize them to you

if there are big funds coming in, there is nothing wrong with the price rise of bitcoin. At the end of 2013, bitcoin's sharp rise was e to the big funds coming in. People are generally optimistic about the expectation of bitcoin, and the price has gone up all the way. This is very similar to the stock market, even more crazy than the stock market. Buying a lot of bitcoin in the short term can make the price of bitcoin rise, but no one knows how much it will rise, and it's hard to say how much it needs to buy< br />

6. If you ask, it means you can't make this suggestion. You should find a way that suits you. Learning these things depends on the titles you write and the questions you ask. Things are unreliable and people are unreliable.

7.

For sun Zhengyi, 62, this is a dramatic change. Just two months ago, when he was in Tokyo, he said that Softbank's business was improving after the failure of Wework“ There is always spring after a hard winter. " He said at the time

he stressed that Uber's share price, which is heavily held by Softbank, has soared, and the company is likely to profit from this share. He also announced that Wework would make a comeback

But the outbreak of coronavirus disrupted these plans. Because of the epidemic prevention and control, people from China to the United States no longer share offices. Taxi software companies (Softbank holds shares in the world's four largest taxi companies) also lost a lot of business. Even Uber CEO Dara khosrowshahi declared publicly, "I won't let my children sit in Uber."

Another trouble for Softbank is that it has invested $1.5 billion in Oyo, a hotel reservation service. With global tourism stagnating, the company's business model is under attack

Ritesh Agarwal, founder and CEO of the reservation service, said in April that in response to the epidemic, the company would lay off employees outside India

Further complicating the situation, Agawal, 26, borrowed about $2 billion to increase his stake in the company, and sun Zhengyi personally guaranteed the loan

Softbank's controversial accounting practices also aggravate its earnings volatility. When the company's valuation rose, the vision foundation recorded profits, but these profits were only on the book, not the sale of shares. In the early days of the fund, both Wework and Oyo contributed to the profits

now, with the assets written down again, the losses of sun Zhengyi's future vision fund are accumulating. The fund has lost 240 billion yen since Softbank began to report its results, including forecasts for the most recent quarter, according to Bloomberg

After excluding sprint from its balance sheet, Softbank expects its sales to drop by about 36% in fy2019 to y6.15 trillion. Sprint has been merged with T-Mobile

"coronavirus is the last blow, but bad investment and wrong judgment are the beginning." Hirai said

this article comes from the author of car home, which does not represent the standpoint of car home