Robert Hiller bitcoin
Recently, German Finance Minister Peter altemir and French finance minister Bruno lemer jointly held a press conference in Paris, saying that they will jointly promote the global supervision of the bitcoin at the G20 summit in Argentina this year, which will warn that the world's most popular cryptocurrency is being used by illegal groups
the regulation of bitcoin is likely to become a new topic of the G20 summit this year. Lemer has repeatedly said that he will propose to discuss the issue of bitcoin at the G20 summit. As for speculative risk, member countries need to discuss the regulation of bitcoin management together. US Treasury Secretary mu nuqin also said recently that he will work with the G20 to prevent cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin from becoming the digital equivalent of anonymous Swiss bank accounts
Experts suggest that the G20 and some international financial institutions should speed up the formulation of relevant principles and guidelines to provide cases and follow-up for countries to establish coordinated regulatory policies. At the same time, we should achieve global coordination in supervision to jointly crack down on illegal cryptocurrency transactions and crimesRobert Schiller, a well-known economist and Nobel Laureate in economics, recently accepted an interview with CNBC's trading nation column and expressed his views on BTC. He believes that bitcoin may be a bubble, but that does not mean that it will burst or disappear forever. p>
recently, Tim Draper, a well-known investor in Silicon Valley, predicted that the price of bitcoin could reach US $250000 by 2022
According to Steve strongin, global head of investment research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the market value of cryptocurrency has evaporated nearly $500 billion in the past month, and the situation is likely to get worse
In a report dated February 5, strongin wrote that most digital currencies are unlikely to exist in their current form and investors should be prepared to lose all their value because they are replaced by a small number of future competitorsalthough he did not give a time frame for the situation, he said that the recent price fluctuations indicate bubbles, and the trend of different currencies to be consistent is unreasonable. p>
on February 6, bitcoin fell below US $6000, reaching the lowest of US $5920, the lowest since mid November
strongin pointed out that the introction of regulated bitcoin futures did not solve these concerns. In addition, he ignored the so-called first generation advantage, saying that few people survived the Internet bubble in the late 90s. p>
he said: "is today's cryptocurrency Amazon or Google, or will it be like many search engines that no longer exist today?" Strongin predicts that most cryptocurrencies may never return to their previous peak levels
strongin is more optimistic about the blockchain technology of digital currency, saying that it can help improve financial books
but even so, he warned that the current technology does not provide the speed needed for market transactions
Robert Shiller, Nobel Laureate in economics, warned on January 23 that bitcoin "may completely collapse and be forgotten. I think that is a very possible result."
According to Schiller, that reminds him of "tulip mania in the Netherlands in the 1640's" and "bitcoin is worthless unless people can reach some consensus on its value."this theory is also called excess volatility. Excess volatility has a great impact on finance. As shearer said, "excess volatility has a strong impact on the efficient market hypothesis and points out the failure of the efficient market." This article has caused a hot research on the relationship between stock price fluctuation and dividend change<
an introctory article is attached below:
according to the efficient market theory, the intrinsic value of a company's stock is equal to the discounted value of the expected dividend of the stock in the future. However, in the capital market, people often think that the stock price index fluctuates greatly relative to the dividend, so it can't reflect any objective new information, and the effectiveness of the capital market is questioned. Therefore, shearer uses variance boundary test to test the relationship between stock price fluctuation and dividend change, so as to test the effectiveness of capital market. First of all, suppose that there is a rational expectation, P is the optimal predictive value of P * in the fully efficient market, that is, P = e (p *), u = P * - P is defined, then u is not related to P. according to the statistical principle, we can know that var (p *) = var (U) + var (P), and further we can get var (P) ≤ var (p *), which can be converted into standard deviation σ( p)≦ σ( p*) If the test result is contrary to this, it means that the hypothesis of efficient market is negated and excessive volatility can be judged. Schiller also developed a standard efficient market model to measure the impact of uncertainty on future dividends, so as to accurately identify the stock price's response to dividend innovation (News). On this basis, by comparing the variance of standard & Poor's composite stock price index and related dividend data with the variance of dividend paid in the United States from 1871 to 1979, shearer found that the fluctuation of stock price in the United States from 1871 to 1979 was 5-13 times of that of realized dividend distribution, and there was excessive volatility, Even after considering the change of the expected real discount rate and the measurement of the uncertainty of future dividend, the problem of excessive stock price volatility still exists. The change of stock dividend is not enough to explain the stock volatility, and the failure of efficient market theory to explain the data cannot be attributed to the data error, price index problem and the change of tax law. This empirical finding has inspired a lot of research on the relationship between stock price and dividend
efficient market is a standard assumption, just like perfect competition market. Then, under the condition of efficient market, the intrinsic value of stock is equal to the discount of future expected dividend. Further assume that, in an efficient market, the expected price is the expectation of the actual price, P = e (p *), then the variance of the expected price is less than the variance of the actual price, and the standard deviation is similar, and the standard deviation of the expected price is less than the standard deviation of the actual price
the result of the error is that the efficient market hypothesis is not consistent with the reality of the United States. It has caused countless proofs from later generations. I don't know what the final result will be? Efficient market and perfect competition are people's assumptions. People are playing games under a hypothesis that never exists, and they can use complex mathematical models to estimate real economic problems.
Robert Shiller, Nobel Laureate in economics and professor of Yale University, recently interviewed the New York Times, ring which he fully demonstrated why he could become one of the greatest economic thinkers of our time
the interview seems to be about bitcoin, but in fact, the content of the interview is about how technology and e-money can correctly bring a revolution to the financial system. For bitcoin, Schiller has always believed that it is entirely a bubble.
according to the content of the article, Schiller has three interrelated views, which are surprisingly reminiscent of Chile's monetary reform in the 1960s. At that time, in order to track the inflation rate, the Chilean government created a quasi currency called "United Development Unit" (UF). If the inflation rate rose rapidly, the higher value UF could replace the Chilean Peso, and the UF holders could maintain their purchasing power
UF was initially used for house purchase loan, and then widely used for car loan, endowment insurance, vehicle insurance, bonus, determination of enterprise investment, etc. According to the regulations issued by Chile's Ministry of Finance in 1967, UF is an adjustable unit for banks to provide loans. Chile's central bank will adjust UF regularly according to the changes of consumer price index
Schiller's three points are: first, he believes that other countries should adopt a digital version of the UF quasi monetary policy. He suggested that these electronic currencies should be called "baskets" to show that their value would follow "a basket of commodities"; Secondly, he suggested that companies at the forefront of digital currencies, such as square and PayPal, should consider supporting automatic payment with these Basket Currencies, or even cross-border transactions, because the value of these basket currencies will be automatically adjusted according to the changes in commodity price indices of various countries; Finally, he suggested that countries create multiple Basket Currencies, so that the proct needs of the elderly and young homeowners can be reflected through different Basket Currencies< In addition, Schiller also looks forward to the prospect of financial assets closely related to national growth. "There will be a 'trillion vote' unit in the market, a concept jointly proposed by mark kamstra, an associate professor of finance at York University, and I, which represents one trillion of the country's latest annual GDP forecast," he said. In addition, there should be another monetary unit that can increase or decrease by itself according to the daily consumption per capita. This currency can be used for pension and social security payments in the form of intergenerational risk sharing. Intergenerational risk sharing means that the amount of social insurance paid to the elderly will change according to the overall consumption trend. As there are many types of Basket Currencies in the market, it will be easier to set prices and sign long-term wise agreements. "
with the deepening of the digital process, all these will become possible, and the effective parts of the current financial system will be able to be saved, upgraded and updated to improve efficiency. But for bitcoin believers who believe in a completely different form of innovation, Schiller's view will not satisfy them. But it is undeniable that Schiller's view does provide a good starting point for the positioning of e-money in the existing monetary system.
Professor Heller believes that everyone in modern economic life is faced with many real economic risks, such as slow economic growth, rising unemployment rate, rising inflation rate and even the decline of indivial regions or instrial sectors. A database system containing various risk information and able to process these information in a timely manner constitutes the material basis of the new financial order. With the help of this super database, all trading risks and profit opportunities in the global market will be timely responded, and new financial instruments will be created. Then people trade these new tools in the financial market to disperse and resolve these real economic risks
in recent years, Professor Robert J. (Robert J. Shiller), who had accurately predicted the Internet bubble with an irrational prosperity, made a unique analysis of major stock markets in the world. Through decades of historical data analysis, Professor Shiller found that the ratio of the total market value of the stock market to the GDP of the country is a good market valuation index: when the ratio is less than 50%, the market is significantly undervalued; The ratio is between 50% - 75%, and the market is mildly undervalued; When the ratio is between 75% and 90%, the market valuation is reasonable. When the ratio is higher than 90%, the market valuation is overvalued. At present, the value of a stock market only accounts for 45.2% of last year's GDP, which is significantly undervalued. For the expected return rate of the market, according to the growth rate of operating income of listed companies, dividend level and changes in stock market valuation and other factors, the expected return rate of China's stock market is 30.1%! Besides studying and writing books, Professor Schiller is also willing to apply his ideas to practice. As one of the founders, Professor Robert and Mr. Allen Weiss co founded case Shiller Weiss, Inc., which is located in Cambridge, Massachusetts. It is a company dedicated to the study of real estate price index and automatic valuation model in the real estate market
in 2002, the company was acquired by Fiserv and renamed as Fiserv CSW. In 1999, he and Mr. Allen Weiss established macro Securities Research LLC, which has two subsidiaries, macro financial and index science, with the goal of promoting unusual risk securitization
Shearer has written a lot on financial market, behavioral economics, macroeconomics, real estate, statistical methods, market moral judgment and public choice
in 1989, market volatility (published by MIT) discussed in detail how to use the method of combining mathematical analysis and behavioral analysis to face the price fluctuation in speculative market; Macro markets: creating institutions for managing society's largest economic risks (published by Cambridge University Press) in 1993 proposed a variety of new risk management contracts, such as national income or real estate futures contracts, It will lead a new revolution in the field of risk management to adapt to the living standards of modern people. This book won the Samuelson award of TIAA-CREF in 1996; Another book, Irrational Exuberance, which is most familiar to Chinese people, published by Princeton University press in 2000, published by Broadway book in 2001, introced and analyzed the contents of speculative bubbles, made special concern for the securities and real estate market since 1982, and won the 2000 mutual fund (Commonfund) award. He was named the best seller of non science fiction by the New York Times and published the second edition of the book in 15 languages in 2005
in the late 1990s, the U.S. stock market, stimulated by the new economic myth, showed unprecedented prosperity. Under the stimulation of investors' high investment enthusiasm, the Dow Jones index, standard & Poor's 500 index and Nasdaq index of the US stock market continue to create historical highs. As an economist, Prof. shearer discovered the hidden crisis behind the superficial prosperity with his keen insight
in 2000, Professor Heller published a new book, irrational exuberance, which was published by Princeton University Press in 2000, and the Chinese version was published by Renmin University Press in April 2001
in this book, Professor Shiller compares the changes of P / E ratio of American stock market in recent 140 years, and points out that the sharp rise of American stock market index in the late 1990s is an abnormal phenomenon divorced from the actual economic operation. He made a further detailed analysis of the causes of this non-compliance. However, at the time of the book's publication, there was a huge shock in the U.S. stock market. In early March 2000, the Dow Jones index fell by nearly 20% from the record high of 11700 points in just a few weeks. At the same time, the NASDAQ index also suffered a heavy blow, falling by more than 30% from 5078 points on March 24, 2000 to 3227 points on April 17
at this time, the public's interest in "irrational prosperity" increased greatly, and they vied to buy it. At the same time, business week, the new Yorker, the New York Times and the financial times also praised the book and made positive comments. The book was also named the best-selling non fiction book of the year by the New York Times. The author, Professor Hiller, has become a favorite of the media. In just two weeks, he frequently appeared in the ace financial programs of CNN, ABC and PBC. There is also a little-known story about the origin of the book's Title: in December 1996, Professor shearer and one of his colleagues reported to the then chairman of the Federal Reserve Greenspan their pessimistic expectations of the stock market. Two days later, Greenspan used the word "irrational expectation" for the first time in his famous speech to express his concern about the situation of the stock market at that time
after the success of irrational prosperity, shearer began to focus on a more macro and complex issue, that is, where should finance develop in the 21st century? In his forthcoming new book, the new financial order: risks in the 21st century, Professor Shiller gives his answer to this question. In the book, Professor Shiller first warned the world that there is excessive superstition about the stock market in the current society, and everyone is dreaming of earning wealth through the stock market. However, this superstition of the stock market will only contribute to the instability of the financial system. This book mainly analyzes the extensive influence of finance, insurance and public finance in our future life. It was published twice in 2003 and 2004 by Princeton University Press in eight languages
shearer's warning contains such a meaning that is often ignored by the world, that is, the stock market is unstable, and the fluctuation of stock price determines that people can not obtain stable benefits from it; At the same time, because the stock market has attracted too much attention, people inevitably lack the necessary attention to some factors in the real economy, such as the income brought by our human capital or the income brought by our own real estate. These factors belong to the category of real economy and have a more profound impact on our quality of life. With the deepening of the process of economic globalization, the risks of these real economic factors are increasing rapidly at an unprecedented speed. Through the book "new financial order: risks in the 21st century", Robert shearer provides us with solutions to the risks of these real economic factors with his foresight
in fact, every member of society may become the victim of these economic uncertainties. These real economic risks may affect our jobs, our homes, our communities and even the economy of our whole country
however, our current financial system arrangement (we can also call it financial order) is almost powerless for these risks, so he put forward six plans to use modern information technology and advanced financial theory to resolve these real economic risks, so as to build a new financial order in the 21st century. In Prof. Heller's idea, a database system which contains all kinds of risk information and can process these information in time constitutes the material basis of the new financial order. With the help of this super database system, all trading risks and profit opportunities in the global market will be timely responded, and new financial instruments will be created. Then, by trading these new financial instruments in the financial market, people can disperse and resolve these real economic risks
Professor Hiller's idea is similar to that of insurance, both of which allow more people to share risks through financial transactions. However, the risks that Professor Hiller wants to resolve are areas that the current insurance instry does not dare to set foot in. This kind of bold idea seems a little incredible, but don't forget that a century ago, people at that time also sniffed at the idea of property insurance and life insurance
this book has also been highly praised in the field of economic theory. Professor Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics, praised this book as "undoubtedly the most important work in this important field", while the famous American columnist Peter Bernstein praised Professor Heller for his economic skills and extraordinary foresight
however, the most enlightening comment comes from another Nobel Laureate in economics, George akerlov, "in the new financial order, he (Professor Shiller) tells us how the new financial order can improve everyone's condition by recing the uncertainty in the economy. Whether rich, middle-class or poor, they can enjoy the benefits of the new financial order. In this sense, he pointed out the direction of financial development in the 21st century. "
Finance and a good society is the latest work of Robert shearer, which can be said to be the masterpiece of Robert shearer. CEOs, investment managers, bankers, investment bankers, lenders, traders, market makers, insurers, market designers, financial engineers, derivatives suppliers, lawyers, financial advisers, lobbyists, regulators, accountants, public goods financiers, policy makers, these roles you know or don't know, It's all told in Schiller's book - you can have a thorough understanding of what's going on in finance. This book is neither a hymn to the financial sector nor a lamentation of financial malpractices. Instead, it puts finance in the context of society, with its merits and demerits objectively commented
in addition to scholarly research and Book Writing, Professor Heller is also willing to apply his ideas to practice. He is currently one of the founders of case Shiller Weiss, Inc., a company specializing in economic research and information work in Cambridge, Massachusetts; At the same time, he is also one of the founders of macro Securities Research LLC, a company in Cambridge, Massachusetts, which aims to promote unusual risk securitization
Robert J. Shiller, born in Detroit on March 26, 1946, is an American economist, scholar and best-selling writer. He is Arthur Okun professor of economics at Yale University and a member of the International Center for finance at the Yale School of management
Professor Schiller received a bachelor's degree from the University of Michigan in 1967 and a doctorate in economics from MIT in 1972
Professor Schiller has been an associate researcher of the National Institute of economics since 1980. He was vice president of the American economic society in 2005. From 2006 to 2007, he was the chairman of the eastern economic society. He is also the founder and chief economist of macromarkets Investment Management Limited
he is regarded as one of the members of the new Keynesian school. He won the Paul A. Samuelson award in economics in 1996 and the Deutsche Bank prize in 2009
2013, has a close relationship with China. He has visited China several times and has repeatedly mentioned the view of China's real estate, China's real estate bubble is serious.
in December 2009, Robert Schiller came to Shenzhen to attend the activities of an enterprise. When answering questions on the spot, he said, "China's economic development is very hot, but there are also some phenomena that we must be alert to. In Shenzhen, real estate is very hot, and house prices are high."
Schiller said, "in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other major cities in China, people are buying houses, so the price of houses is actually several times their annual income. I don't know the specific proportion. We use computer to analyze the ratio of house price to income in California, and the figures are 8 times and 10 times, so we think it's too high. If it's eight times, it will take eight years of total income to buy a house. "
in 2009, Robert Schiller went to Shanghai to attend the EMBA forum held by the Senior School of finance of Shanghai Jiaotong University. At that time, he said in an interview with the media that he was worried about the housing prices in Shanghai“ I heard earlier that the house price in Shanghai is basically 100 times the annual income of an ordinary person. In other words, he has to work for 100 years to buy a house with all his income. In that case, why did he buy the house? The answer is that he expects house prices to rise. People have a speculative mentality. He thinks that the house will definitely rise in the future, but I think it must be irrational. " Robert Schiller said at the time
2011, at the annual meeting of the world economic forum 2011 (Davos Forum), Schiller once again talked about real estate issues in the interview with China media and said China's real estate bubble existed.
he said: "house prices in the United States are still falling, and I'm worried about when it will fall. The household debt ratio is still very high, and many people lose their houses or move to other cities because of changing jobs. At the same time, the debt ratio of the United States has risen to an unprecedented high level, so people worry about whether the government has the ability to launch new stimulus policies. China's real estate is now in a serious bubble and will burst on China's economy if it burst like the US.
on March 15, 2014, Schiller said that China's real estate prices are likely to fall, because China's housing prices remain high, which is dangerous. For example, the house prices in Beijing are similar to those in London and New York. In other words, they are the highest in the world, so the risk of falling is very huge. But I can't predict whether China's real estate market will collapse in the future. I can only say that it is possible. Last year, China's real estate transactions were very frequent, resulting in a certain bubble. We can solve this problem by increasing transaction tax. p>
Designing new systems and markets for large-scale risk management and recing income inequality; Index adjustment method and inflation, social security, asset evaluation (including financial assets and real estate), time series characteristics of asset prices and market psychology
Shearer has made great contributions in financial market, behavioral economics, macroeconomics, real estate, statistical methods, market moral judgment, public choice, etc. He is good at using the method of combining mathematical analysis and behavioral analysis to study the price fluctuation in speculative market; Analysis of speculative bubbles, especially the securities and real estate market bubble; This paper analyzes the extensive influence of finance, insurance and Public Finance on the future life of ordinary people
Finance and a good society, Princeton University Press (2012), ISBN 0-691-15488-0 (Simplified Chinese version, finance and a good society), CITIC press, December 2012)
co authored with Akerlof, another Nobel Laureate: "animal spirit: how human psychology promotes economic development and its impact on global capitalism", international standard book No. 978-0-691-14233-3 (Simplified Chinese version of animal spirit), Princeton University Press (2009), CITIC press, December 2012)
subprime mortgage solutions: how the global financial crisis happens and what to do, Princeton University Press (2008) ISBN 0-691-13929-6
new financial order: risks in the 21st century, Princeton University Press (2003) ISBN 0-691-09172-2
irrational prosperity, Princeton University press International standard book number 0-691-05062-7.
macro market: building an institution to manage the greatest economic risk in society. New York Clarendon Press, Oxford University Press, 1993. International standard book number 0-19-828782-8
market volatility. MIT Press, 1990. International standard book number 0-262-19290-x