Bitcoin outlook for the second half of 2019
Publish: 2021-04-27 15:35:25
1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
2.
Now the price of bitcoin is hovering around $37800. For the price trend of bitcoin in 2019, cailu.com will discuss with you
1. First of all, we know that bitcoin is a virtual digital currency, which is an upgraded proct on the blockchain. At present, the transaction volume of bitcoin is the largest among the digital currencies. In the development of bitcoin, the speed is not very fast, the infrastructure is complete, and there are good regulatory policies. The price in 2019 can be expected
2. The attitude of the regulatory authorities: bitcoin is not protected by law in our country at present. It is a trading proct imported from or abroad. At present, it is still a proct that needs to be investigated in our country. The regulatory authorities should make corresponding policies on how the investigation results are suitable for our domestic transactions, and we can expect the price rise in the later period
3. For investors, to enter the digital money market is to gain profits from this market, but bitcoin is a very risky transaction. In addition, bitcoin has no limit on the rise and fall, and the risk is uncontrollable. According to the 28 law of the investment market, only a few people can make profits
generally speaking, we can look forward to bitcoin in 2019. At present, we can look forward to the $4000 mark. If we can break through it, the price may go up. Of course, we can't know what kind of news will appear in the future. If there is good news, the price of bitcoin will rise in 2019
3. At present, bitcoin has broken through the 10500 pressure level, hovering around 11000-12000, and the next short-term target can see 13800, so there should be no great risk in buying now, but the exchange must choose a good one, not a small one. There is no guarantee. I have been using okex, an old platform for more than seven years, with the largest trading volume in the world. You can refer to it
4. The real way to make money is to cash in bitcoin and put it into practice. Otherwise, it will not be earned and will be deeply involved
5. Bitcoin is a decentralized point-to-point e-cash system. It has been more than 10 years since its birth. The price of bitcoin now hovers around $10000. Many people think that the price is too high and it is not cost-effective to buy it now. But in fact, even though bitcoin has been around for 10 years, it is still like a fetus in the womb, and a lot of people do not know the existence of bitcoin
bitcoin has not yet grown into a baby, and there is still huge room for growth. Its prospects are broad. In the next decade, let's look at the height of bitcoin. More and more people will know about bitcoin. Everyone needs bitcoin, and the demand for bitcoin transactions will be extremely strong.
bitcoin has not yet grown into a baby, and there is still huge room for growth. Its prospects are broad. In the next decade, let's look at the height of bitcoin. More and more people will know about bitcoin. Everyone needs bitcoin, and the demand for bitcoin transactions will be extremely strong.
6. No, because only a small number of people believe that if the number of users does not grow, the scam will slowly break down
bitcoin is a virtual currency system developed by an organization that dare not disclose its identity. Also known as "air currency"
this kind of currency is worthless. We should rely on pyramid selling and speculation to improve the psychological value among a small number of people, then buy and sell among these people, and then continue to rely on pyramid selling to expand the population
this is a financial fraud, much like the Ponzi scheme
as long as people who are not mentally retarded, they should be aware that this is a fraud
it's just that people who speculate in currency think that they won't be the last one to take over the dish.
bitcoin is a virtual currency system developed by an organization that dare not disclose its identity. Also known as "air currency"
this kind of currency is worthless. We should rely on pyramid selling and speculation to improve the psychological value among a small number of people, then buy and sell among these people, and then continue to rely on pyramid selling to expand the population
this is a financial fraud, much like the Ponzi scheme
as long as people who are not mentally retarded, they should be aware that this is a fraud
it's just that people who speculate in currency think that they won't be the last one to take over the dish.
7. It can't be simply attributed to the exchange. Sometimes there are sudden short-term fluctuations, and the exchange does participate. But the main topic is about the monthly time span, which is difficult for the exchange to control. It is more the result of the joint operation of hot money and large institutions. However, the sharp decline of the overall currency value can't be separated from the basic economic principle: the relationship between supply and demand, This is beyond anyone's control
8. In the long run, the current price of bitcoin is still at a low level. With the increasing demand for bitcoin from investors in the world and the limited total amount of bitcoin, its price will also be higher and higher. Therefore, it is suggested that if there is spare money, you can invest a little. Maybe after retirement, it will be a sum of money for the elderly
from the moment bitcoin proced value to the sky high price of nearly $20000 gold, bitcoin rose by tens of thousands of times ring this period, which also created a lot of people's freedom of wealth. Most investors love and hate bitcoin. They love speculative property, and they have no limit to the rise and fall. They hate to be unable to analyze the market and make profits in the market
so why is it still suitable to buy bitcoin in 2020
1. The third proction rection
in May, bitcoin reced its proction for the third time. Under the hype of the proction rection market, the third proction rection of bitcoin brought confidence to most investors in the market, but the price did not change significantly
judging from the market, bitcoin is leading the rise of other financial procts under the same conditions. It dropped to $3800 in March, and then rose all the way to about $10000, walking out of the V-shaped reversal
the V-shaped reversal is not easy. After all, the previous market had to be sorted out for several months before going up. This also illustrates the purchasing power of bitcoin in the market
moreover, after halving, the amount of bitcoin g up by the miners has graally decreased. In addition to the lost bitcoin, there are not many bitcoins in circulation in the market, and the bitcoin market is a market brought about by demand. With many external factors, many investors want to use bitcoin for risk hedging, and the liquidity of the market is expanding step by step<
2. Institutions bought a lot
after halving, gray alone increased its holdings of 18910 bitcoins, while after halving, the miners only mined 12337 bitcoins, indicating that the number of gray holdings increased was 150% of the total mining amount of miners in the same period
in addition to institutions, some celebrities have also publicly expressed their desire to buy bitcoin. For example, the author of "poor dad, rich dad" tweeted the reason why he wanted to invest in bitcoin. Before that, he repeatedly said that with the continuous release of water from the Federal Reserve, bitcoin may become a good hedging tool to deal with the current financial crisis
with the entry of specialized institutional teams, bitcoin has been known by more and more people, and its value has also been understood by more and more people< 3. Bitcoin leads the global financial asset growth
the secondary market of bitcoin is huge, with the number of new addresses and active addresses increasing every day. There are many people who know about bitcoin but don't enter the market
the massive entry of foreign institutions leads to the concentration of some chips. In this process, it is not only the transfer of chips, but also the transfer of price rights.
from the moment bitcoin proced value to the sky high price of nearly $20000 gold, bitcoin rose by tens of thousands of times ring this period, which also created a lot of people's freedom of wealth. Most investors love and hate bitcoin. They love speculative property, and they have no limit to the rise and fall. They hate to be unable to analyze the market and make profits in the market
so why is it still suitable to buy bitcoin in 2020
1. The third proction rection
in May, bitcoin reced its proction for the third time. Under the hype of the proction rection market, the third proction rection of bitcoin brought confidence to most investors in the market, but the price did not change significantly
judging from the market, bitcoin is leading the rise of other financial procts under the same conditions. It dropped to $3800 in March, and then rose all the way to about $10000, walking out of the V-shaped reversal
the V-shaped reversal is not easy. After all, the previous market had to be sorted out for several months before going up. This also illustrates the purchasing power of bitcoin in the market
moreover, after halving, the amount of bitcoin g up by the miners has graally decreased. In addition to the lost bitcoin, there are not many bitcoins in circulation in the market, and the bitcoin market is a market brought about by demand. With many external factors, many investors want to use bitcoin for risk hedging, and the liquidity of the market is expanding step by step<
2. Institutions bought a lot
after halving, gray alone increased its holdings of 18910 bitcoins, while after halving, the miners only mined 12337 bitcoins, indicating that the number of gray holdings increased was 150% of the total mining amount of miners in the same period
in addition to institutions, some celebrities have also publicly expressed their desire to buy bitcoin. For example, the author of "poor dad, rich dad" tweeted the reason why he wanted to invest in bitcoin. Before that, he repeatedly said that with the continuous release of water from the Federal Reserve, bitcoin may become a good hedging tool to deal with the current financial crisis
with the entry of specialized institutional teams, bitcoin has been known by more and more people, and its value has also been understood by more and more people< 3. Bitcoin leads the global financial asset growth
the secondary market of bitcoin is huge, with the number of new addresses and active addresses increasing every day. There are many people who know about bitcoin but don't enter the market
the massive entry of foreign institutions leads to the concentration of some chips. In this process, it is not only the transfer of chips, but also the transfer of price rights.
9.
MFC financing is owned by MBI group. MBI group has been exposed by Guangzhou evening news and hainan.com, and has been identified as pyramid selling by instry and commerce. Therefore, MCF financing platform is a fraud
10. I don't think I understand bitcoin as much as I did with stocks. But its essence is unchanged, that is, lazy people rely on it to make speculative investment to hype a virtual thing. Some people exchange RMB for bitcoin on various bitcoin trading platforms, and naturally others exchange RMB. But at present, most of them are using the leverage of GBL to hype bitcoin, so as to obtain the maximum profit, In fact, this kind of virtual goods trading is empty handed. Please remember, as long as there is output, there must be input. If you lose money, naturally someone will make money, which is the same as stock speculation. Hope to help you.
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