Bitcoin up or down after the whole session

1. How to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin

coincola coying Cola
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how to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin
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recently, "bitcoin broke through $8000" has been on the hot search. For a while, bitcoin rose, reborn rose sharply, and Ethereum led the rise... A week later, this big play dominated by bitcoin didn't seem to come to an end, and the trading volume was once pushed up to 100 billion US dollars

in the investment world, "madness" and "fear" coexist. Today's "madness" stems from last year's long-term "fear". However, this time, coincola Cola Research Institute tracks and analyzes the technical indicators behind the rising market, and deconstructs the "passion" of the market with the "rationality" of data< (1) mining and bitcoin price

start with the relationship between mining and bitcoin. The core technology of bitcoin is "blockchain", which is connected by blocks. Each block corresponds to a bill. All transaction information and transfer records of bitcoin are recorded on the blockchain. Every other point in time, the bitcoin system will generate a random code on the system node. Due to distributed accounting, all computers on the Internet can search for the code. Whoever finds the code will generate a block and then get bitcoin. This process is mining. Calculating this random code requires a lot of GPU operations, so miners need to use mining machines with massive graphics cards to make profits

1. Bitcoin computing power: starting to pick up

remarks: June 2018-may 2019 bitcoin hash value

data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute

the above figure shows the bitcoin hash value. The hash value of the bitcoin network represents the computing power of the blockchain. The growth of computing power means that miners increase mining investment or increase the number of miners. Since the second half of 2018, the hash value has recovered from falling back to picking up, from 32eh / s at the end of the year to 50eh / s now, and the recent growth trend is remarkable. The continuous growth of bitcoin hash value (representing computing power) indicates that the market is optimistic about the future of bitcoin

2. Mining difficulty: stepped up

remarks: bitcoin difficulty from June 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute

the figure above shows bitcoin difficulty. Since 2019, the difficulty of bitcoin mining has increased in a step-by-step manner, from the low 5T to the current 7T. It can be seen that the rapid rise of bitcoin in this round has reced mining costs and increased market entry personnel. The increasing difficulty of mining means that there are profit opportunities in cryptocurrency market, and the market is generally optimistic< (2) the number of active addresses and transactions on the chain are important indicators reflecting the activity of cryptocurrency, which are highly correlated with the price of cryptocurrency

1. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain: a straight line rise

remarks: the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019

data source: coinmetrics, coincola Research Institute

active addresses refer to the addresses where transactions have taken place every day, that is, how many independent addresses conct transfer transactions on the chain every day. Since 2019, the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain has been rising, especially in recent years. From 540.60143k in January to 832.592k now. It shows that the rapid growth of active users of cryptocurrency is a very positive signal for the market

2. The number of transactions on the bitcoin chain: continued to rise

remarks: the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute

since 2019, the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain has continued to rise, from 235k in early 2019 to 374k now. Moreover, since April and may, after two rounds of sharp rise in the price of bitcoin, the number of transactions on the chain has remained at a high level, even showing signs of a short-term surge< (3) lightning network and bitcoin price

in essence, lightning network adds a layer to the basic layer of bitcoin blockchain in order to make the transaction fast and cheap. With the existence of lightning network, users can remit money to each other at any time and pay very little. Lightning network represents not only the technical level of bitcoin, but also the important basis of bitcoin value

1. Lightning network nodes: rapid growth

remarks: bitcoin lightning network nodes from January 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute

the test version of lightning network started on the bitcoin main network on March 15, 2018. The number of lightning network nodes was only 64 at the beginning of 2018 and increased to 2329 at the end of 2018. Since 2019, the number of lightning network nodes has increased rapidly, and now it has reached 4289. In less than half a year, the number of nodes has doubled. The continuous expansion of nodes indicates the continuous upgrading and development of bitcoin lightning network technology, which is an important indicator of bitcoin price

2. Lightning network capacity: speed up

remarks: bitcoin lightning network capacity from January 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute

the data above shows that as of May 15, 2019, bitcoin lightning network capacity has increased to 1039 BTC, equivalent to 833usd, while at the beginning of 2019, it is only 504btc, Lightning network capacity doubled, and the growth rate accelerated. This means that the expansion of bitcoin has been well solved in lightning network technology, which will help keep the payment channel active and effectively support the functional application of bitcoin

the performance of mining, chain trading and lightning network is closely related to the price of bitcoin. On the one hand, the rise of bitcoin price acts as a catalyst to stimulate its performance in mining, chain and lightning network; On the other hand, mining, chain trading and lightning network are the important cornerstone of bitcoin price trend and the important basis of bitcoin price expectation<

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the prediction about the collapse time of bitcoin
yesterday, he discussed bitcoin with people, and then suddenly found that the surge brought by the listing of futures may be the pit g by some big institutions, Bitcoin could collapse shortly after CME's CBOE listing. After the listing, the price will maintain a certain stability in a certain range

2. Bitcoin futures trading started at the end of 2017 can be short. There is no way to short in the traditional bitcoin market. The listing of futures is the killer of such speculative financial extension procts as bitcoin. Because before it was up to make money, now it is down.

3.

Since January, the real supervision has not come, only a few ambiguous scrapes have come, the exchange is still there, the project party has not gone, the media of the office is getting better and better, and the related instries are also sleeping day and night. But the bear market has come. It seems that it is unwilling to go. It went down in January, fell in February, and was sluggish in March. Many people cry out that it is a pity to abandon them. They are very surprised. Some people say that the 2014 bear market will repeat itself, while others say that the past is good and we should hold on. We might as well think from the following angles and get our own answers

"bitcoin is the vane of the digital money market. The rise and fall of bitcoin price determines the heat of the overall market and the ability to attract external funds. Therefore, we mainly discuss bitcoin and other mainstream digital currencies."

Like the development and prosperity of the stock market, the game of multi countries will become the theme of the future. Investors will also become more rational, and graally rece the weight of policy in the face of digital money market

Where will ICO itself go and what will the currency of investment be

answer: as a means of financing, ICO is more efficient than IPO and more fair in the distribution of profits. Of course, its own limitations will also limit the development of this financial instrument. ICO and IPO will exist for a long time in the future, serving different instries. Whatever is suitable for token will promote the development of ICO, as well as in policy. IPO will not disappear, because it is more in line with the existing legal framework, in line with international standards and other first mover advantages will support him to continue to maintain the financial channel of related instries

4. Factors affecting the price of bitcoin 7: government regulation
some people want to see more regulation of bitcoin, because when the government regulates bitcoin, it will claim that bitcoin is legal or illegal. If it's legal, the laws governing bitcoin can help people measure its availability and longevity
on the other hand, some of us are afraid of government regulation, because the overall view of decentralized money is to keep it decentralized so that no one can control it. The government controls the amount of legal tender in circulation in the country. They can make more money, but they can't directly rece the amount in circulation. Wallet address storage bitcoin and wallet may be accidentally deleted, or they may be locked by forgotten password, but only 21 million bitcoin will be cast. This allows the value of bitcoin to increase over time rather than decrease
now imagine the government's announcement that they are only allowed to exploit cryptocurrency, and only their currency is legal in their country. Well, now we are in the same situation as before the invention of cryptocurrency. The government takes all the money, and they can start and stop mining at will. Maybe they'll even change the code to do more money mining when there's not enough money. The only difference is the form of the trading currency. Cryptocurrency regulation can bring a lot of terrible things, and some people are very afraid of the new rules
those who promote the regulation of bitcoin will buy more bitcoin and increase the value of bitcoin, but those who are afraid of government regulation may start panic selling when news such as nydfs bitlicense comes into play. This makes it possible for government regulation to affect the price of bitcoin. The price of bitcoin is stable. You can explain the news in two different ways
factors affecting the price of bitcoin 6: acceptance of bitcoin
no one uses bitcoin as currency, and bitcoin will not be used for any purpose as currency. When people pay with bitcoin, they are increasing their credibility and showing the world that someone wants to pay with bitcoin. Many people in companies like Dell, Newegg, and dish networks have taken the power of bitcoin to inform and allow customers to use it to buy their procts and services. Xapo offers a new credit card that allows you to use bitcoin for stores that accept regular debit cards
although shoppers have no direct impact on prices, they do help spread bitcoin around the world as a viable currency. Therefore, the impact of bitcoin shopping on bitcoin price factors has no short-term impact, but they provide a larger market
factors affecting bitcoin price 5: Mining
the more miners there are, the more secure the network will be as long as no one owns 51% or more of the network. When an entity owns at least 51% of the mining power in the network, 51% of the attacks may occur
for example, a person can buy a mansion with 10000 bitcoin. The real estate agent who sells the buyer's mansion receives the money and transfers the contract to the buyer to complete the transaction. Buyers now have luxury homes, and real estate agents get 10000 bitcoins from sales, right? Well, buyers have 51% of the bitcoin network hash rate, and they want to return their money while keeping the house. The buyer allocates the block chain before the transaction, and uses 51% network hash to compete for the official part of the fork, so that the new branch is longer than the original branch. In doing so, the entire network now treats the new branch as legal and the original branch containing 10000 BTC transactions as illegal. That means the buyer now has his 10, 00 BTC back. This is called a 51% attack
the 51% attack probability that affects the bitcoin price is the potential panic selling
e to several reasons, the impact of general mining, bitcoin price factors declined slightly. Some miners keep their bitcoin as part of their buying and holding strategies, while others cash in legal tender. Miners also have high electricity bills to run their equipment, so they often sell a large profit for legal purposes in order to pay for their electricity bills
factors affecting the price of bitcoin 4: media opinion
the media does play a role in the price of bitcoin
when most people read the news, most people will take action based on the news. For example, if the news says ghash. IO has 51% network hash value; Some people may launch DDoS attacks on ghash. Io. In front of the mountain, China's news trading is quite profitable. GOx crashes. People will sell panic crazily, so everyone who knows the latest news knows that the people's Bank of China will pitch on bitcoin, and then it will become a rumor that they will sell their collection and buy it back when the market starts to rise again
the key factor influencing the price of bitcoin in this news is the articles it provides. People will buy or sell bitcoin according to its content and send it with higher or lower value correspondingly
factors affecting the price of bitcoin 3: large enterprises mp money
bitcoin is not accepted everywhere; Not every employee wants to accept bitcoin's salary, and not every government system will accept bitcoin and other taxes. Before the world catches up, there are still things to pay in fiat money, so companies usually sell most of bitcoin to pay for their business. Just like the so-called "mping", the value of bitcoin will be in a low state. Depending on the company's sales volume and how many companies were selling bitcoin at the time, this could mimic "panic selling" and cause the price of bitcoin to collapse
the decline in the value of bitcoin is the key factor influencing the price of bitcoin for large enterprises that prefer fiat money< As you can see above, the common reason why management factors work in this way is that they buy and sell bitcoin in other currencies. When traders sell bitcoin on the exchange, the price is very low, and the price usually doesn't change, or the change is very small. If the trader is a large holder of bitcoin, that is, a person with a large number of bitcoin about 1000 + BTC, the price of bitcoin will drop significantly e to its large sales. Generally speaking, orders from large number of cash holders will not be filled with a single price, which is the reason for the price decline. Someone may buy a BTC for $600; Another may buy 20 BTC for $598; There may be more transactions of different values in the middle, and then the seller will sell 0.1 BTC to the buyer for $500. What is the new purchase price of bitcoin? Maybe 499 dollars
for all people selling bitcoin in the transaction, the price factor of bitcoin is always a decline in the value of bitcoin
factors affecting the price of bitcoin 1: trading volume and frequency of exchanges
of course, the primary factor affecting the value of bitcoin is how many people are willing to pay for bitcoin. When you place an order at the exchange to buy bitcoin, you can determine the value of bitcoin to you. The more people are willing to buy bitcoin, the greater the chance of increasing the overall value of bitcoin. The seller sells the highest bid first, so whoever is the current highest bidder is the one who decides the value of bitcoin
when someone buys bitcoin on the exchange, the factor that affects the price of bitcoin is that the value of bitcoin always rises
a formula for calculating the stock price
the rise and fall of the stock is calculated by comparing the closing price (or current price) of the trading day with the closing price of the previous trading day
calculation method of rise and fall range: the difference between the closing price (or current price) of the day minus the closing price of the previous trading day and then dividing the closing price of the previous trading day
calculation formula of rise and fall range: Rise and fall range = (current price - yesterday's closing price) / yesterday's closing price * 100% (the calculated value is positive for rise and negative for fall)
at present, the trading rules of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are as follows: generally, the maximum limit of the rise and fall of each trading day is + - 10% for stocks, + - 5% for St stocks, and + - 44% for new stocks on the first day of listing, and the rise and fall of other special regulations are calculated separately

5. It can't be simply attributed to the exchange. Sometimes there are sudden short-term fluctuations, and the exchange does participate. But the main topic is about the monthly time span, which is difficult for the exchange to control. It is more the result of the joint operation of hot money and large institutions. However, the sharp decline of the overall currency value can't be separated from the basic economic principle: the relationship between supply and demand, This is beyond anyone's control

6. Candlestick? Charts, also known as candle chart, Japanese line, Yin Yang line, bar line, red and black line, are commonly referred to as "K line". It is based on the opening price, the highest price, the lowest price and the closing price of each analysis cycle.

7. This is the case now. It is impossible to get rich by digging a hole. The time has passed. There is too little money in the bank.

8. The sharp fall of bitcoin the night before yesterday was both unexpected and reasonable, because I'm not good. Now bitcoin is rising, and it's still in the process of oversold rebound. For the limited rise and unlimited decline, I think we should mainly wait and see. When I was buying bitcoin at the Matcha exchange a few years ago, I told my friends not to buy it again. Now I buy it with 3800 US dollars, The price has gone up several times. It's not worth investing any more