BTC high and low point forecast

1.

Based on these two situations, price fluctuation seems to occur within 18 months after each halving. However, the data is still insufficient for proper analysis and price forecasting model

Will history repeat itself< p> It is important to note that in terms of the number of bitcoin holders, market value, regulations and the overall outlook for cryptocurrency, there are huge differences between 2012, 2016 and 2020. For example:

market value: November 2016 - & gt; $11 billion, December 2019 - $132 billion

daily trading volume: November 2016 - & gt; 84 million US dollars, December 2019 - 17 billion US dollars

e to the increased public awareness of bitcoin and the interest of institutional investors, the risk is higher this time. Although many other cryptocurrencies have been introced since 2016, BTC's dominant position is still 66.6%. As a result, the bitcoin miner is unlikely to switch to other coins, which means that halving may have a long-term impact on bitcoin prices

However, the main gain is that there is a certain correlation between the halving of bitcoin reward and the price fluctuation after the event. These supply changes happen every four years, and it's interesting to watch their impact on the price of the bitcoin

2. In order to understand the technical principle of bitcoin, we need to understand two important cryptographic techniques: hash code: it converts a long string into a fixed length string, and its conversion is irreversible, that is, it is impossible to guess the original string from hash code. Sha256 is mainly used in bitcoin protocol
public key system: corresponds to a public key and a private key, keeps the private key in the application and publishes the public key. When Party A transmits information to Party B, it can use Party A's private key to encrypt the information, and Party B can use Party A's public key to decrypt the information, so as to ensure that the third party cannot impersonate Party A to send the information; At the same time, when Party A transmits information to Party B, it is encrypted with Party B's public key and sent to Party B, and then Party B decrypts it with his own private key, so as to ensure that the third party cannot eavesdrop on the communication between the two people. RSA is the most common public key system, but the lliptic curve digital signature algorithm is used in bitcoin protocol. What's the difference between cash and bank account? Bitcoin is an electronic currency in BTC. In this article, it is also used to refer to the whole bitcoin system. Like opening an account in a bank, the corresponding concept in bitcoin is address. Everyone can have one or more bitcoin addresses, which are used to pay and collect money. Each address is a string that starts with 1. For example, I have two bitcoin accounts, and. A bitcoin account is uniquely determined by a pair of public key and private key. To save the account, you only need to save the private key file. Unlike bank accounts, banks keep all transaction records and maintain the book balance of each account, while bitcoin's transaction records are jointly maintained by the whole P2P network through a pre agreed protocol. How much money is in my account address? Although the current account balance can be seen by bitcoin software, unlike banks, there is no place to maintain the book balance of each address. It can only calculate the account balance in real time through all historical transactions. How do I pay? When I pay from address a to address B of the other party, the payment amount is e. at this time, both parties will announce the transaction information to each network node, telling address a to pay to address B, and the payment amount is e. In order to prevent the third party from forging the transaction information, the transaction information will be encrypted with the private key of address A. at this time, the network node receiving the transaction information can use the public key of address a to verify that the transaction information is indeed sent by address a. Of course, trading software will help us do these things, we just need to input the relevant parameters in the software. What will the network node do after receiving the transaction information? This is the most important part of the bitcoin system, which needs to be elaborated. For the sake of simplicity, only bitcoin protocol has been implemented. In the current version, each network node will save all transaction information synchronously. There are two kinds of transaction information in history, one is & quot; Verified & quot; The transaction information, that is, the verified transaction information, is stored in a series of "blocks". Each & quot; block" Is the previous & quot; bock" The ID of each block is the hash code of the hash code of the block and the new transaction information (see an actual block). The other category refers to those who also & quot; Unverified & quot; The transaction information just paid above belongs to this category. When a network node receives new unverified transaction information (possibly more than one), it can calculate the book balance of each address at that time because the node keeps all the transaction information in history, so it can calculate whether the transaction information is valid, that is, whether there is enough balance in the payment account. After eliminating the invalid transaction information, it first takes out the last & quot; block" Then, the unverified transaction information is combined with the ID, and a verification code is added to form a new "block". It needs a lot of calculation to build a new block, because it needs to calculate the verification code, so that the above combination becomes a block, that is, the first several bits of the hash code of the block are 1. At present, the first 13 bits need to be 1 (generally, the specific method is uncertain), which means that if the block is generated by enumeration method, the average number of enumerations is 16 ^ 13. Using CPU resources to generate a block is called "gold mining", because the proction of the block will get a certain reward, and the reward information has been included in the block. When a network node generates a new block, it will broadcast to other network nodes. However, this network block may not be accepted by the network, because it is possible that other network nodes have proced the block earlier. Only the earliest block or the block with the largest number of subsequent blocks is valid, and the remaining blocks are no longer used as the initial blocks of the next block. How does the other party confirm that the payment is successful? When the payment information is distributed to the network node, the network node begins to calculate whether the transaction is valid (that is, whether the account balance is enough to pay), and attempts to generate blocks containing the transaction information. When six blocks (one direct block and five subsequent blocks) contain the transaction information, the transaction information is considered "verified", so that the transaction is formally confirmed, and the other party can confirm the successful payment. A possible problem is that I will pay the balance of address a to address B, and at the same time pay to address C. If I only verify that the single comparison transaction is valid. At this point, my way of cheating is to generate six blocks including B to B and six blocks including C to C before the truth is revealed. Because I need a very long CPU time to generate a block, compared with the whole network, the probability of my cheating success is very small. What is the motivation of network nodes to proce blocks? As can be seen from the above description, in order to make the transaction information effective, the network node needs to generate 1 and 5 subsequent blocks to contain the transaction information, and such block generation is very CPU intensive. How to let other network nodes help to proce blocks as soon as possible? The answer is very simple. The agreement stipulates that BTC will be rewarded for the address where the block is proced, as well as the Commission promised by both parties. At present, the reward for procing a block is 50btc, which will be halved every four years in the future. For example, the reward will be 25btc from 2013 to 2016. Is the transaction anonymous? Yes, and No. All bitcoin transactions are visible. We can check all transaction records of each account, such as mine. But what's different from the banking monetary system is that everyone's account itself is anonymous, and everyone can open many accounts. In general, anonymity is not as good as it claims. But bitcoin has another advantage in doing black market trading: it can't be frozen. Even if the police trace a bitcoin address, there is nothing they can do unless they trace the computer used by the exchange based on the Internet address. How to ensure that bitcoin does not depreciate? Generally speaking, in the case of equivalent trading activities, the value of money is inversely proportional to the amount of money issued. Unlike the traditional money market, the central bank can determine the amount of money issued. Bitcoin does not have a central issuing institution. Only by procing blocks can we get a certain amount of BTC currency. Therefore, bitcoin's new amount of money depends on: 1. The speed of procing blocks: bitcoin's agreement stipulates that the difficulty of procing blocks is fixed at an average of 2016 every two weeks, about 10 minutes. Moore's law of doubling CPU speed every 18 months will not speed up the proction of block. 2. The number of rewards for block proction: at present, 50 BTC is awarded for each block proced, which is halved every four years. In 2013, 25 BTC is awarded, and in 2017, 12.5 BTC is awarded. Considering the above two factors, bitcoin's currency issuing speed is not controlled by any single node in the network. Its protocol makes the currency stock known in advance, and the maximum stock is only 21 million BTC

3. You can make money, but you are likely to lose money. The risk of the contract is still great, at least higher than that of the normal currency speculation, but the benefits are also considerable. You can study and observe the exchange now, and then decide whether to enter the market

4.

Bitcoin network generates a new block every ten minutes. Every time a miner completes a block, he can get a certain amount of bitcoin as a block reward, and the reward will be halved for every 210000 blocks mined. Because the time for mining each block is limited to 10 minutes, at this rate, the period for the reward to be halved is four years, that is to say, the reward for bitcoin blocks is halved every four years

when the bitcoin block reward was halved for the first time, its price rose 25 times from 300 yuan to 7995 yuan; In the second half, the price rose 28 times from 5011 yuan to 140000 yuan. So many people predict that the third halving of bitcoin in May 2020 will lead to a sharp rise in the price of bitcoin, at least 10 times. However, these figures are not so clear. After halving in 2012, bitcoin prices rose for two months, and in 2016, there was almost no immediate response to deflation for a month. This may also be the result of the strategy of "buying rumors and selling news" implemented by some speculators

extended data:

after bitcoin halved, the supply slowed down, and keeping deflation through algorithm has always been a part of bitcoin protocol design. It was set up to ensure the value of bitcoin. By recing block incentives and setting the maximum possible supply of bitcoin at 21 million bitcoins, bitcoin has an anti inflation feature, which runs counter to the tendency of central banks to print money at will. At present, there are about 17.5 million bitcoins in circulation, and less than 3.5 million bitcoins are available for mining. When the next block award halves, bitcoin's annual inflation rate will drop from the current 3.8% to about 1.8%

maintaining deflation through algorithms has always been a part of the design of bitcoin protocol. It was created to guarantee the value of bitcoin. By recing block incentives and keeping the total amount of bitcoin at 21 million bitcoins, bitcoin is endowed with an anti inflation nature, which is different from the tendency of central banks to print money at will. At present, there are about 17.5 million bitcoins in circulation and less than 3.5 million available for mining. The next block award cut in half could rece bitcoin's annual inflation rate from the current 3.8% to about 1.8%. This will be the first time in bitcoin's history that it has fallen below the historical average of about 2% - 3% growth in gold supply

5.

This situation must be timely feedback to customer service, to retrieve

if bitcoin is stored in the account of the exchange, all the coins are in the big account of the exchange. If the exchange stops trading or goes bankrupt, all the coins belong to the actual controller of the exchange (the person who has the key of the big account)

therefore, if there are official problems in the exchange, we must contact the official customer service in time to retrieve them. In addition, digital assets, blockchain and other technologies will have unpredictable effects, and problems in the development process need to be standardized

extended information:

people who really own bitcoin do not store them on the Internet, but store them on the hard disk. Bitcoin's code is open source, which means that technicians can modify the code to proce a continuous stream of virtual currency

which breaks through the "limited amount" attribute of bitcoin. These virtual currencies can be exchanged with fiat currencies. For example, bitcoin can be exchanged into yen, and yen can be exchanged with almost all fiat currencies in the world

in this case, if the number of virtual currencies increases arbitrarily, there will be problems in the whole international monetary system. Therefore, on September 4, 2017, the central bank stopped the exchange function of the token trading platform, especially the exchange function with legal tender

6.

Peter boockvar, chief investment officer of bleakey Consulting Group. I won't be surprised if the price of bitcoin drops to $1000 to $3000 in the next year, because bitcoin is not really relevant in this $19 trillion economy. Any commodity with a parabolic rise in price will usually fall back to the starting point< However, I'm not sure whether bitcoin will slow down or plummet suddenly

the implementation of loose monetary policy by central banks such as the Federal Reserve is the main reason for people's enthusiasm for virtual money. As interest rates graally return to the right track, virtual money will collapse. Once there is a crack in the virtual currency market, investors' attitude towards high-risk assets will also change, and the stock market may be injured. All this depends on the market psychology and has nothing to do with the economic fundamentals. "

Emma, the first one is scared to pee, so hurry to add a BTC

Soros

"as a currency, it should have a stable value storage function. The fluctuation of bitcoin in a day can be as high as 25%, which means that it is not feasible to pay wages with bitcoin

compared with the rapid collapse, the price of bitcoin may remain at a flat high. The reason why the outcome of bitcoin may be different is that some people, such as dictators, want to store wealth overseas through bitcoin

, however, can not change the nature of bitcoin as a typical bubble. It is based on misunderstanding as well as tulip fever. p> It seems that BTC is not reliable. But an alligator is an alligator. There's something in it, but it's not clear. I have an epiphany. You can do it yourself

Robert Shiller, Nobel Laureate in economics and professor of economics at Yale University, reminds me of the tulip craze that took place in the Netherlands in the 1640's. basically, bitcoin has no value unless some market participants believe it is valuable. In contrast, gold has some uses even if it is not used as an investment commodity

up to now, people still pay for tulips, and sometimes the price is even quite high. In contrast, bitcoin is afraid to collapse completely and then be forgotten by the public. However, bitcoin may still exist for a long time, or even last for 100 years "

I don't understand, thank you

"Bitcoin and blockchain attract people's attention because they think it's an 'interesting experiment'". If it succeeds, it may change the world more than the Internet

however, it is also possible to fail, and the probability of failure is at least 20%. It is suggested that the amount of cryptocurrency held should be controlled within the range of bearable loss

the main reason for bitcoin's failure is that people put too much money into bitcoin and can't afford to lose money. "

raise so much money from all over the world just for an interesting experiment? Give me 0.005 BTC

dailyfx, a professional financial media of Fuhui group, said: "as the price of bitcoin failed to rebound to its historical peak in December, the price continued to fall. But objectively speaking, although the price of bitcoin fluctuates greatly, it will not fall by 50%. On the disk, the price has obvious support at the 11750 / 160 level, and the price rebounds above or after touching the support level; If the price falls below this point, it may continue to fall later

the price of Ethereum may break through the current slope area, but it will reach 1380 in the short term from the low point of 500 in December, or it will show that the bull rally is almost exhausted. Therefore, if the price does not fall in the later period, it will be more likely to consolidate. At present, the first support is at 863. If the price is still up, it will be a good opportunity for bulls to make another correction

in the later period, Ruibo currency may be in the trend of high consolidation or downward correction. As the price fell below the support level of 2.1577 yesterday, it continued to fall. In view of the sharp rise in prices last month, it is still unclear which point the current price will stabilize after falling or hitting. Therefore, it is still necessary to be cautious about the trading of Ruibo currency. "

The stock review has been changed to currency review. Brother, I recommend a coin circle of Guizhou Maotai

Dennis gartman, founder of the "king of commodities" gartman news agency, said: "nothing can change my skepticism about bitcoin. Bitcoin will bring disaster to all those involved. At the same time, once this happens, investors will rush to the gold market. There is no doubt that bitcoin will fall below $5000. "

It seems that it is necessary to collect some gold

2. Good prediction

cesares, member of PayPal's board of directors

"the probability of successful bitcoin and blockchain experiments is more than 50%. But instry participants must be patient, because it will take another five to 10 years to achieve solid success

if the experiment is successful, the world will be very different. By then, the value of a bitcoin will reach one million dollars. Therefore, most people in the world will want to buy bitcoin in the price range of $14000 or $20000. "

previously, it was said that the probability of failure is at least 20%. Now it is said that the probability of success is more than 50%. You have all the good words and bad words. Do you owe a BTC

analyst van Petersen of Shengbao bank

"the price of bitcoin is likely to reach $50000 to $100000 in 2018. Digital currencies other than bitcoin will also soar

first of all, you may think that the price of bitcoin has been properly adjusted. After all, it has dropped by 50%, which is healthy. But we haven't seen the full effect of futures contracts

this year, Ethernet may surpass bitcoin, and it will appear later than bitcoin, but it has a more unified leadership position than bitcoin. "

He was right about this guy last time. When the transaction price of bitcoin was below $900 in December 2016, he predicted that bitcoin would reach $2000 in 2017. As a result, bitcoin exceeded $2000 in May 2017. However, it is predicted that eth will surpass BTC. Well, it's not impossible for the second child to seek power to usurp the throne and kill the first child. It's just difficult

Michael Graham, analyst at canaccord genuity, an investment company, said, "one of our themes is that more institutions will enter the cryptocurrency market in 2018. The number of institutional investment procts related to bitcoin is increasing. Regulators will approve a bitcoin Trading Fund in the second half of this year or early 2019

I confirm that this year, the public will see IPOs from some encryption companies and more widely from blockchain companies. "

it's better for me to break the news! CBOE applied for six cryptocurrency ETFs at the end of 2017 and may go online in 2018. What the hell is this? That is to say, it increases the opportunity for institutional investors to have close contact with cryptocurrency and opens channels for professional speculators

Tom Lee, co-founder of fundstrat and super bull of bitcoin, predicts that the bottom of bitcoin will be about $9000. If it falls to this position, we will buy strongly, and $9000 is the best time to enter this year

it is estimated that bitcoin will rise to US $25000 by the end of the year and US $125000 by 2022

bitcoin has experienced many ups and downs, but it always stands back to the previous high point, and the low point becomes a good opportunity to buy

since the middle of 2016, bitcoin has risen more than 75% for five times and plummeted more than 25% for six times. Similar ups and downs in the stock market will take several years, but the virtual currency world can do it in a few months

also optimistic about three kinds of virtual currency. The first is eth, which has the function of smart contract and has a bright future. It is estimated that eth will rise from the current US $1000 to US $1900 at the end of this year. The second is etc, a virtual hybrid of bitcoin and Ethernet, which will rise from the current $25 to $60 at the end of the year. The third is the virtual currency Neo developed by China, whose price will rise from US $114 to US $225 at the end of the year. "

Say! How much did the project give you? I'd like to introce you to Mr. Ali, chief investment officer of blocktower capital, a cryptocurrency investment company; Ari Paul

"at some point in 2018, the price of bitcoin can be as low as $4000 or as high as $30000."

Go away

Julian hope, co-founder and President of tenx

"bitcoin may break the $60000 mark in 2018, but it may also drop to the bottom of $5000, but it's not sure which one will come first, surprise or scare."

go away + 1

Nick colas, analyst of datatrek research, a data analysis organization, said, "the fluctuation of bitcoin in 2018 will exceed that in 2017, and the fluctuation may range from US $6500 to US $22000, all of which are reasonable valuations. And $14035 would be a reasonable median. In addition, there will be four price collapses of bitcoin in 2018, with the magnitude of each collapse being about 40% or more. "

are there still four opportunities for bottom selling and position increase this year

George Tung, co-founder of cryptos r us and a veteran of cryptocurrency investment, will we see another virtual currency whose market value exceeds that of bitcoin? Yes, I believe it is absolutely possible in the next three to five years. Or as soon as three years, there will be competitors who can compete with bitcoin. "

the 3000 year old little demon wants to kill the 7000 year old demon? It's still tender

Lex Sokolin, global head of financial technology strategy, automous research, said, "the currency circle may usher in a new round of" furcation frenzy "in 2018, with a maximum of 50 furcation times!"

Pro, we are here to talk about the price. What do you mean by having a second child

7. In the last rising cycle, BTC usually experienced multiple 30% + correction, and the average increase after each correction was 153%. That is to say, if you can buy accurately at every low point, you can get an average return of 150%
since then, the pie has risen to US $14000 for more than a month. Today, it has been nearly two months since this high point. At present, the range of shock is almost a 30% callback
so, according to the historical situation, we are likely to experience another 150% rise this year? And if it can be realized in the next few months, it also means that the bear market is really far away from us:
however, it should be noted that the above is based on the rising cycle in history, and now, logically speaking, we can't be 100% sure that we must be in a rising cycle now. If we choose this chart today, we also want to remind the players who are looking at the general trend, Or we should be cautious to do some catch-up and sell down, or wait for a "bottom hunting" point, because it is possible to miss one or two times the income of ten or twenty points
time really flies. It is expected that bitcoin will rise to US $15000 by the end of the year

8. You can choose to play 18 in the first two weeks to make money
and then brush advanced pictures
for example, you can sell fragments of nightmare simulacra this season
300 fragments for one
a nightmare simulacra is
1E
brush 14, 15, 16 can start missions in Zana, you have a chance to get out of the guard map, save 17 fragments in the guard map, and beat 17 to get rid of 18 fragments
18 fragments are also very valuable, A set of 18 is now 4E
this season,
oil insects
is very cheap, you can buy oil by yourself,
insects to eat,
red map,
relatively speaking, fossils are also very cheap, because the ratio of C and E is too low,
on the first day of service, the plot is very simple, I usually finish in seven hours
the role of reclaiming wasteland should choose the role that has harm and survival.
there are many reclaiming wasteland videos in station B. each role has a detailed explanation. You can have a look when you have time
for example, after the first day of the plot, you can move more than 70 items
unidentified equipment
change to C. One is 2c, 1e is 40
more C
< On the third day of the service, the equipment is complete, either special liver or direct currency purchase on the website
now playing assassin
ice sword
COC, the website should be enough to buy 10e, ice sword 2E, clothing magic foundation burst, buy your own base to wash, other
Gold
use the market to wash it
if you haven't got all the watchstone now, In short, there are many ways to earn money,
hunting demons,
, mining, painting, playing 18, Cyrus, painting nightmare simulacra, or just slowly moving equipment to change C

9. Mai Dian mall is not a virtual currency on the Internet. It's like a mall. It's said to be a pyramid selling mall
network virtual currency generally includes game currency and digital currency
digital currency generally refers to bitcoin, Leyte coin, dogcoin and project crowdfunding token of European crowdfunding platform.