Can bitcoin replace money
The number of bitcoin is too small to circulate on a large scale in society. Moreover, its existence is not guaranteed by the national credit, but based on the trust between bitcoin players, so the credit of this "currency" is relatively low
moreover, the number of bitcoin is small, and it is too concentrated in the hands of several big players, resulting in its price is very unstable. This is basically not money. Because as a general currency, an important prerequisite is price stability, otherwise the economic order will collapse
bitcoin has no value base; The price fluctuates sharply; There are three basic reasons why bitcoin can't become the world currency e to the lack of support from monetary authorities
can bitcoin become a real currency? http://www.financialnews.com.cn/yw/pl/201401/t20140107_ 47595. HTML
since the birth of the first bitcoin seven years ago, bitcoin has been developing rapidly and caused a lot of controversy. The discussion focuses on how to define bitcoin, whether it can become a currency and even become an international currency in the future
in 2013, bitcoin was very popular in China, not only the price soared, but also was evaluated as "a big challenge to the current monetary system" by some analysts. In early December 2013, the people's Bank of China, together with five ministries and commissions, issued the notice on preventing bitcoin risks, pointing out that bitcoin is a specific virtual commodity, not a real currency. Then, bitcoin prices fell
at the beginning of the new year, on January 4, the National Bank of Malaysia announced on its website that it would not recognize bitcoin as a legal currency, and urged the public to be vigilant against its risks. In fact, since the second half of 2013, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Norway and other countries have successively made their stand against bitcoin trading activities, and they do not recognize bitcoin as a currency in the market
At the same time, it is reported that in January this year, the world's first bitcoin atmrobocoin entered the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets. Companies also plan to launch bitcoin ATMs in more parts of Europe, Canada and the United Stateson the one hand, the relevant regulatory authorities have "made their stand clear"; on the other hand, the global layout of bitcoin has been advancing rapidly. How to determine the nature of bitcoin and its future development momentum have once again attracted the attention of all parties
Sheng Songcheng, director general of the survey and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China, published an article entitled "virtual currency is not money in essence -- take bitcoin as an example" in his own name, emphasizing that virtual currency represented by bitcoin is not money in essence and it is difficult to become money
he believes that bitcoin lacks national credit support and is difficult to perform the function of commodity exchange medium as the base currency. Modern credit currency (paper money) represents national credit, and actually represents the proction and transaction of commodities in the whole society. As long as the national machine works normally, the coercive force of national laws can give the public trust in the standard currency. Bitcoin has no value itself, no national credit support, and no guarantee of the whole society's commodity proction and trade, so it does not have the value basis of money. In addition, bitcoin has no legal compensation and compulsion, and its circulation range is limited and unstable. Bitcoin has strong substitutability, so it is difficult to be a general equivalent
Secondly, the number and scale of bitcoin have set an upper limit, which is difficult to meet the needs of modern economic development. He believes that there is a contradiction between the limited quantity of bitcoin and the expanding social proction and commodity circulation. If bitcoin becomes the standard currency, it will inevitably lead to deflation and inhibit economic development. The limitation of quantity also makes bitcoin's function as a means of circulation and payment greatly reced, which makes it easier to become a speculative object rather than a medium of exchange Thirdly, bitcoin lacks a central regulation mechanism, which is not compatible with the modern credit currency system. Sheng Songcheng believes that bitcoin does not have a centralized issuer, so it is easy to be over hyped, resulting in excessive price fluctuations, and can not become a pricing currency and circulation means, so it needs to be converted into bitcoin to pay; Bitcoin is also not controlled by the monetary authorities, so it is difficult to play the role of economic adjustment meansat the end of the article, Sheng Songcheng also made it clear that money is inseparable from economic operation and economic development, and is not a pure proct of technology. As long as there is no fundamental change in the form of modern economic and social organizations, the monetary system based on national credit will exist, and bitcoin and other virtual currencies will not become the standard currency of a country, and thus not the real currency, "but the Utopia of technology supremacy and absolute liberalism"
As for the prosperity and significance of bitcoin, Sheng Songcheng explained, "the emergence of bitcoin reflects people's worries about inflation under the condition of credit currency in a sense. Central banks should strengthen liquidity management, reasonably regulate money supply, keep prices basically stable, and promote stable economic and social development. "ring the writing period, our reporter contacted Sheng Songcheng again on issues related to bitcoin. He stressed again in the interview: "bitcoin is not the real currency, the real currency can only be the standard currency."
Sheng Songcheng said, "from the perspective of the history of monetary theory, bitcoin is not new. Its essence is the privatization of currency issuance or the non nationalization of currency. Hayek, a famous Austrian economist and Nobel laureate, put forward a proposal many years ago, and Friedman, a famous American economist, also made a similar proposal. However, their opinions are only a theoretical analysis tool, which is difficult to operate in real economic life, and the modern economy is increasingly inseparable from the country's macro-control. This financial crisis and its response is a good proof. Money is one of the main means of national macro-control and the basis of modern state and government. How can it be privatized? So I use the word "Utopia."“ In my opinion, technology can not replace the national attribute. Any digital currency can only be the realization form of standard currency. Therefore, electronic money will develop, and virtual money is utopia. " Sheng Songcheng said, "as long as there is a modern state, virtual currency will not be a currency. Many people ignore the national and social attributes behind money and think that money is just a natural entity. "as for the future development prospects of bitcoin, a commercial bank analyst interviewed said: "bitcoin trading, as a commodity trading behavior on the Internet, ordinary people have the freedom to participate in it at their own risk, and there is still a lot of room for development in this aspect. At present, in view of the fact that bitcoin has not had any impact on the monetary policy of central banks, and from the perspective of issuing technology, it seems to have enlightenment, so many central banks hold a wait-and-see attitude towards it. "
but as for whether bitcoin can play the role of currency in the future, or even international currency, the analyst said that it is "not optimistic". He said, "even if some countries want to use bitcoin as the world settlement currency, but it is in private hands, and the price fluctuates violently, can it become an international currency? Moreover, the important premise for it to become an international currency is that the authorities of all countries recognize its monetary nature, which itself is a difficult problem. "
Sheng Songcheng also said, "bitcoin does not have a value base; The price fluctuates sharply; There are three basic reasons why bitcoin can't become a world currency without the support of national monetary authorities. "Many people think that the reason why bitcoin is valuable is because it is "rare", and if bitcoin is no longer "rare", then it will not have value
this is a misunderstanding. Let's consider a question: what is the essence of all "currencies"
the answer is trust. The biggest reason for the value of the dollar is because of the credibility established for the dollar under the Bretton Woods Agreement, rather than the so-called equivalent exchange with gold (although others say so). The main reason why RMB is valuable is because of the trust system of RMB in China and neighboring countries, rather than the exchange with us dollar reserves (see offshore RMB). This can explain why the currencies of some countries (such as the ruble of Russia, as well as the Zimbabwean currency as you all know) have been greatly devalued, because the government and the current world situation have led to a trust system that does not support the existence of this currency. The so-called economic sanctions and currency speculation are very superficial and superficial reasons
the essence of money is trust
What about bitcoin
bitcoin has no centralized Trust Measurement institution. The value of bitcoin, namely its "credit system", comes from distrust of centralized units. Every country finds that seigniorage is too easy to collect, which leads to the increasingly poor trust between countries. Even the people of all countries do not trust the national currency
and trust, like quality, is conserved. Trust in centralized money decreases, while trust in decentralized money increases naturally
this is the essential reason why the value of bitcoin continues to rise. Therefore, for digital currencies such as bitcoin, there are only two outcomes. Either countries want to understand that they will no longer issue excess currencies, issue additional currencies in a scientific and reasonable way, unify stable exchange rates, and maintain the credit system of centralized currencies, then the value of bitcoin will be infinitely close to zero. Or countries will continue to drink water to quench their thirst, and more frantically use the method of issuing excess currency to collect seigniorage from everyone, then the trust in the centralized currency will be lower and lower, and the total value of bitcoin, a decentralized currency, will be infinitely close to the gross labor value of all the units that do not trust the government and other governments, but need international trade
either the price is crazy or it's worthless
after understanding these, we can answer this question. Will bitcoin be replaced by other digital currencies
swindlers like * * and even the old Wang next door can come and yell, "I spent 10 minutes to change bitcoin's core and create a new digital currency called SBC. Come and join my ICO and pay me seigniorage ~". So, if this happens, will you immediately choose to use Lao Wang's SBC next door
the answer is that some speculators will participate, but the market will not. The reason is very simple, the new cryptocurrency has not been recognized by the market, the application has not been proced, this kind of currency has no way to exchange for means of proction. Then this kind of currency is not money, but a virtual commodity for speculation. In other words, even if old Wang ICO next door has an SBC, no one will choose this kind of currency except those speculators who have no brains
in the current market, there are many other digital currencies, such as Ethereum, EOS, XRP, and so on, which may have technological advantages in some aspects (in fact, BTC has been evolving, and it will also learn from the advanced technologies of other digital currencies that have been successfully proved by the market. LTC and other currencies can be said to be the experimental currencies of BTC's advanced technologies.), There may be more application scenarios than BTC in the future, but they are not likely to challenge the status of BTC. BTC will always be the first consensus in the currency circle, which is the belief of many people. BTC will exist for a long time as the gold in the currency market, not mainly for the circulation of digital currency
bitcoin has many advantages such as world circulation, decentralization, exclusive rights and fixed quantity, and its formation is also under the needs of human economic development. Therefore, with the development of bitcoin, its existence will bring certain challenges to the traditional currency. However, at present, although bitcoin believes in liberalism and the principle of science and technology, it has brought great challenges to the traditional currency. However, from the characteristics of bitcoin circulation, such as high risk, difficult supervision and instability, bitcoin can only coexist with the traditional currency for a long time in the future, but it can not replace the traditional currency.
first of all, we need to be clear - what is currency? In essence, money is an identification of collective will
no matter what form of money is, it needs human recognition of its value before it can be used for trading (it has three main characteristics: 1. Scarcity; 2. Difficulty to , proce or transport; 3. Economic value). This is true of shells, gold and legal coins
bitcoin relies on blockchain Technology (the so-called blockchain is to explore the potential value of human beings in the form of Computing). Generally speaking, for example, there is gold underground in South Africa, but it has not been mined. Do you admit that the gold can be traded? If you trust to trade, the bitcoin will be valuable, If you don't trust a computer, it's worthless data
in short, transactions divided by barter accidents are all public trust exchanges, so bitcoin (endorsed by human potential value) may also replace legal currency (endorsed by government tax); The biggest problem is that if the issue of bitcoin overdraw the future of mankind, our finance would collapse. Therefore, in the past 20 years, legal currency should still be the mainstream (at the same time, it is linked with taxes and rare metals, and the security is relatively high)
the content of this paper is based on xiaoshuo 2018 ~ introction to the economic system
I hope I can help you a little bit, thank you.