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IMF blockchain SDR
Publish: 2021-04-30 10:24:16
1. With the formal entry of RMB into SDR, the RMB assets held by international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the bank for International Settlements and the world bank will increase correspondingly, and the capital inflow will help maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate. In addition, the status of RMB as a reserve currency has been officially recognized. This means that both the International Monetary Fund and other member countries will recognize RMB as a new type of reserve currency. I personally think RMB exchange rate will be more stable and the status of reserve currency will be "upgraded". The international demand for RMB has steadily increased. The international business space of financial institutions is broader. As for how to promote the internationalization of RMB after joining the SDR, I think we can do something from the following three aspects: first, we must strengthen the management of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations; The second is to choose the path of macroeconomic policy adjustment, to learn the lessons of Japan's Instrial Hollowing caused by the rapid appreciation of the yen; The third is to establish a more comprehensive and targeted macro policy framework, emphasizing the coordinated use of exchange rate policy, monetary policy and fiscal policy tools.
2. It's consumption.... It's just that the credit card is an advance
3. Special drawing right (SDR), also known as paper gold, is a reserve asset and accounting unit created by the International Monetary Fund. It is a right to use funds allocated by IMF to Member States. When a member state has a balance of payments deficit, it can exchange foreign exchange with other Member States designated by IMF to repay the balance of payments deficit or IMF loans. It can also act as an international reserve like gold and freely convertible currency. However, because it is only a unit of account, not a real currency, it must be changed into other currencies when it is used, and can not be directly used for trade or non trade payments. Because it is a supplement to the original ordinary drawing right of the International Monetary Fund, it is called special drawing right.
4. Special drawing rights (SDR) is the international monetary unit formulated by the International Monetary Fund
5. SDR is a supplementary reserve fund with a limited scale of only US $280 billion. If the RMB weighs 5%, the total value is only $14 billion. Therefore, the imminent inclusion of RMB represents that there is no capital flow advantage at all. Nevertheless, China is still positive that RMB will be included in the SDR basket, because it increases China's self-confidence and affirms the internationalization of RMB and the opening of capital account
in addition to being included in the SDR basket, the long-term goal of RMB is to become a global reserve fund. According to IMF data, at the end of the second quarter of 2015, the global foreign exchange reserves of 146 reporting member countries reached $11.5 trillion. Of these total funds, about $6.66 trillion belongs to the reported reserves in the official quarterly report on the currency structure of foreign exchange reserves (Cofer)
the current allocation of Cofer's reported reserves is as follows: US $64.1%, Euro 20.8%, Japanese yen 4.2%, British pound 3.9%, Canadian dollar 1.9%, Australian dollar 1.7% and Swiss Franc 0.3%. The IMF believes that the distribution of other currencies is indistinguishable and the proportion is too small. In the report, it became other currencies, accounting for 3.1%
in other words, the proportion allocated to RMB by global reserve managers is negligible. Considering China's current share of World Trade and GDP, the potential distribution share in the future is likely to increase, ranging from 4% to 7%. This hypothetical share is in line with the amount of foreign exchange holdings denominated in RMB, equivalent to $2400 to $420 billion of reported reserves and $210 to $380 billion of unreported reserves< Coincidentally, China's onshore fixed income market has reached US $65000, with one fourth of China's central government bonds and one fourth of China's official policy bank bonds. There is no official data on foreign ownership of Chinese government bonds, but the total is estimated to be less than 2%. On average, foreign ownership of Asian government bonds accounts for a quarter of the total across the region
therefore, after RMB is included in the SDR basket, it is reasonable for global central banks to consider RMB as a global reserve currency, and more shares of RMB may be allocated in the future. From a yield point of view, it's really tempting to allocate to China's official sector bonds. Despite this year's strong rebound, 10-year Chinese government bonds are still yielding well at an interest rate of about 3.15%. Compared with the yields of other governments around the world, which have been hovering at low levels for decades, this rate is indeed considerable
however, despite the right direction, we believe that the demand for official sector bonds in China will not increase significantly immediately, nor will the demand for RMB
China's fixed income market is still changing, and relevant policies are still being formulated and implemented. In addition, although great progress has been made this year in the internationalization of RMB and the opening of China's capital account, RMB is not fully convertible and the main restrictions on China's capital account still exist. Specifically, although the reform of the central parity fixed exchange rate mechanism has made it more market dependent, the RMB / US dollar exchange rate is still floating at + / - 2% of the central parity repair rate every day. Although the people's Bank of China has opened onshore fixed income and foreign exchange interbank markets to central banks and sovereign wealth funds around the world, China's capital account is still very closed to retail investors
all of the restrictions mentioned above are highly uncertain and may have a significant impact on the long-term investment considerations of global central banks. It is the responsibility of global reserve managers to ensure long-term purchasing power and liquidity in their reserve accounts, and to be less eager to buy official Chinese bonds and other investment procts related to the renminbi.
in addition to being included in the SDR basket, the long-term goal of RMB is to become a global reserve fund. According to IMF data, at the end of the second quarter of 2015, the global foreign exchange reserves of 146 reporting member countries reached $11.5 trillion. Of these total funds, about $6.66 trillion belongs to the reported reserves in the official quarterly report on the currency structure of foreign exchange reserves (Cofer)
the current allocation of Cofer's reported reserves is as follows: US $64.1%, Euro 20.8%, Japanese yen 4.2%, British pound 3.9%, Canadian dollar 1.9%, Australian dollar 1.7% and Swiss Franc 0.3%. The IMF believes that the distribution of other currencies is indistinguishable and the proportion is too small. In the report, it became other currencies, accounting for 3.1%
in other words, the proportion allocated to RMB by global reserve managers is negligible. Considering China's current share of World Trade and GDP, the potential distribution share in the future is likely to increase, ranging from 4% to 7%. This hypothetical share is in line with the amount of foreign exchange holdings denominated in RMB, equivalent to $2400 to $420 billion of reported reserves and $210 to $380 billion of unreported reserves< Coincidentally, China's onshore fixed income market has reached US $65000, with one fourth of China's central government bonds and one fourth of China's official policy bank bonds. There is no official data on foreign ownership of Chinese government bonds, but the total is estimated to be less than 2%. On average, foreign ownership of Asian government bonds accounts for a quarter of the total across the region
therefore, after RMB is included in the SDR basket, it is reasonable for global central banks to consider RMB as a global reserve currency, and more shares of RMB may be allocated in the future. From a yield point of view, it's really tempting to allocate to China's official sector bonds. Despite this year's strong rebound, 10-year Chinese government bonds are still yielding well at an interest rate of about 3.15%. Compared with the yields of other governments around the world, which have been hovering at low levels for decades, this rate is indeed considerable
however, despite the right direction, we believe that the demand for official sector bonds in China will not increase significantly immediately, nor will the demand for RMB
China's fixed income market is still changing, and relevant policies are still being formulated and implemented. In addition, although great progress has been made this year in the internationalization of RMB and the opening of China's capital account, RMB is not fully convertible and the main restrictions on China's capital account still exist. Specifically, although the reform of the central parity fixed exchange rate mechanism has made it more market dependent, the RMB / US dollar exchange rate is still floating at + / - 2% of the central parity repair rate every day. Although the people's Bank of China has opened onshore fixed income and foreign exchange interbank markets to central banks and sovereign wealth funds around the world, China's capital account is still very closed to retail investors
all of the restrictions mentioned above are highly uncertain and may have a significant impact on the long-term investment considerations of global central banks. It is the responsibility of global reserve managers to ensure long-term purchasing power and liquidity in their reserve accounts, and to be less eager to buy official Chinese bonds and other investment procts related to the renminbi.
6. Reform catalyst:
the entry of RMB into the SDR basket will have an important impact on China's financial reform and the trend of RMB exchange rate“ In the short run, China is likely to take the inclusion of SDR as a catalytic factor for financial reform, especially in the aspects of capital account opening and exchange rate system reform, which will also promote domestic interest rate liberalization and capital market reform. " Zhu Haibin, JPMorgan's chief economist in China, told China business news
an important step in RMB Internationalization:
SDR itself is not an important reserve asset, but the four SDR currencies account for 92.9% of the global foreign exchange reserves (US dollar: 62.9%); Euro: 22.2%; Yen: 4.0%; GBP: 3.8%). The inclusion of RMB in SDR will further encourage central banks and sovereign wealth funds to hold RMB denominated assets, thus enhancing the status of RMB as a reserve currency
RMB assets are more popular:
according to the estimation of Standard Chartered Bank, if RMB is added to SDR, all countries may increase their holdings of onshore Chinese government bonds by a total of 6.2 trillion yuan (about 1 trillion US dollars) before 2020; 10% of the world's 11.6 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves will be converted into RMB assets
commodity pricing power:
"as a large consumer country, RMB's participation in SDR can make RMB competitive in pricing commodities. In addition, the more widely used and internationalized the RMB is, the easier and cheaper it will be for Chinese enterprises to invest overseas through trade and investment. "
the entry of RMB into the SDR basket will have an important impact on China's financial reform and the trend of RMB exchange rate“ In the short run, China is likely to take the inclusion of SDR as a catalytic factor for financial reform, especially in the aspects of capital account opening and exchange rate system reform, which will also promote domestic interest rate liberalization and capital market reform. " Zhu Haibin, JPMorgan's chief economist in China, told China business news
an important step in RMB Internationalization:
SDR itself is not an important reserve asset, but the four SDR currencies account for 92.9% of the global foreign exchange reserves (US dollar: 62.9%); Euro: 22.2%; Yen: 4.0%; GBP: 3.8%). The inclusion of RMB in SDR will further encourage central banks and sovereign wealth funds to hold RMB denominated assets, thus enhancing the status of RMB as a reserve currency
RMB assets are more popular:
according to the estimation of Standard Chartered Bank, if RMB is added to SDR, all countries may increase their holdings of onshore Chinese government bonds by a total of 6.2 trillion yuan (about 1 trillion US dollars) before 2020; 10% of the world's 11.6 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves will be converted into RMB assets
commodity pricing power:
"as a large consumer country, RMB's participation in SDR can make RMB competitive in pricing commodities. In addition, the more widely used and internationalized the RMB is, the easier and cheaper it will be for Chinese enterprises to invest overseas through trade and investment. "
7. Recently, China's RMB won SDR for many reasons: China's overall GNP status in the world; The strength of RMB in the past international financial storms does not depreciate; The reason for the increase of domestic consumption of RMB is that many countries in the world believe that RMB, as a foreign currency, is a healthy and stable currency, which can avoid the disadvantages of US dollar, pound sterling, Japanese yen and other foreign currencies. At the same time, it can also increase the international position of RMB. Of course, this does not mean that it is a dominant position.
8. Introction: Ningbo Zhongyan Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. is a high-tech enterprise dedicated to the R & D, manufacturing, sales and photovoltaic power generation system design of renewable energy conversion procts such as solar energy and wind energy. The company is located in Ningbo national high tech Instrial Development Zone
legal representative: Wang Haojun
time of establishment: May 6, 2011
registered capital: RMB 3.65 million
Instrial and commercial registration number: 330215000033664
enterprise type: limited liability company (invested or controlled by natural person)
address: floor 4-5, building 4, alite Science Park, 139 Xinhui Road, Ningbo hi tech Zone
legal representative: Wang Haojun
time of establishment: May 6, 2011
registered capital: RMB 3.65 million
Instrial and commercial registration number: 330215000033664
enterprise type: limited liability company (invested or controlled by natural person)
address: floor 4-5, building 4, alite Science Park, 139 Xinhui Road, Ningbo hi tech Zone
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