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This year's A-share market deals with all kinds of problems
from Guizhou Maotai with 1200 yuan, to Hengrui pharmaceutical with 99 times P / E ratio, to soy sauce stocks with 300 billion market value
any kind of white horse stocks may fail you. Only the core assets of the consumer instry are stable happiness
However, judging from the traditional valuation, the price to earnings ratio (PE) and price to book ratio (PB) of the big consumer sector are not cheap any more:① PE of the food and beverage instry is 32.17 times, reaching 68% of the historical percentage, and Pb is 6.5 times, reaching 81% of the historical percentage P>
2. The price earnings ratio of the Baijiu liquor segment is 32.17 times higher than that of the historical average. p> Is the valuation of consumer stocks too high
Guotai Junan retail team recently released "stick to the consumer leader, share China's growth", which analyzes in detail the changes in the valuation logic of consumer stocks
there are 2303 words in this article, and the reading time is estimated to be 10 minutes. Pull to the bottom of this article to read the core ideas of this article
remember the "beautiful 50" in America
before discussing whether the valuation of consumer white horse stocks is too high, we might as well review the "beautiful 50" market in the United States in the early 1970s
the so-called "beautiful 50" refers to the 50 large cap stocks in the New York Stock Exchange in the United States from the late 1960s to the early 1970s, among which there are many consumer brands that we are still familiar with, such as McDonald's, Coca Cola and so on
One of the most important characteristics of "beautiful 50" is that high profit and high PE exist at the same timesince 1971, the stock price and valuation level of "Meili 50" have risen rapidly. At the end of 1972, the median valuation was more than 40 times, and the highest valuation of Polaroid was even more than 90 times, while the median valuation of S & P 500 was only 12 times
throughout the market, it is not difficult to find that consumer stocks are especially favored by big funds. Analyzing the reasons behind it, we think that there are two points:
1. The business model is clear and the financial content is simple. 2. The economic downturn is more risk averse P>
still takes America's "beautiful 50" as an example. There are three main reasons for the ending of the "beautiful 50" market:
1) the huge fiscal deficit and credit expansion in the United States have accumulated a high inflation bubble, and the food crisis has triggered CPI upward, and the Federal Reserve has had to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy; < / p> The oil crisis broke out in 1973, which led to the further deterioration of inflation, the rising cost of raw materials eroded the profits of enterprises, the gross profit rate and profit growth rate of enterprises both went down, and the stock market turned from bull to bear
3) since 1973, the profit growth and roe of "Meili 50" began to decline, and the stability of profit was questioned by the market
we believe that the phenomenon of "group heating" of A-share institutions can only be broken in two cases:
1) the performance of consumption leaders continues to be lower than expected, but at present, the revenue and net profit of Baima shares such as Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Gree Electric Appliance and Midea Group keep steady growth
2) like the "Meili 50" in the United States, a shares encounter large external changes, such as the overall escalation of Sino US friction or the global economic cliff recession, but the probability is very small at present
at present, the possibility of both cases is very small
how to configure later
in terms of follow-up allocation, we suggest mining investment opportunities from two main lines
1) efficiency in terms of supply: the leading enterprises with high operating efficiency, steady performance growth and obvious competitive advantage will continue to grow by squeezing the market share of small and medium-sized enterprises
2) dividend from demand: there is still a huge consumer demand dividend in the third and fourth tier market. We are optimistic about the enterprises with strong growth, instry logic and income support, especially the leading companies whose strategic focus is expanding to the low tier market and can enhance the market share through their own management and cost advantages
summary of this paper:
1 in the traditional sense, the big consumer sector is no longer cheap
However, when the consumer instry develops to a certain stage, its leading stocks should not simply judge the valuation level according to the price earnings ratio (PE)3 the valuation system of consumer instry is changing from PE model to DDM model. Once the consumer leader has established a deep enough "moat", the steady growth, market share increase, profit improvement and continuous dividend will be enough to support its valuation level
4 domestic funds and overseas funds maintain a high enthusiasm in the allocation of large consumer instries. The reason why consumer stocks are favored by big funds is that their business model is clear, their financial content is simple, and they are more risk averse in the period of economic downturn
5 the group market of consumer stocks is not easy to be broken in the short term. In terms of follow-up allocation, we should pay attention to leading enterprises from the perspective of supply; From the perspective of demand, focus on the enterprises with strong growth, instry logic and income support
current financial management methods; There are many financial procts, platforms and enterprises; It is suggested to make more investigation before deciding which platform or enterprise to invest in<
first, invest in formal platforms
Second, find potential procts
Third, learn more about the proct market