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1. Analysis of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank by Peng Yun, School of economics and management, Wuhan University source: Shanghai finance, 2006, issue 8 Abstract: the "two pillars" monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank ensures the continuity and systematicness of the monetary policy decision-making method, which is not only concive to stabilizing inflation expectations, but also to improving the efficiency of monetary policy decision-making, And it helps build public trust in the European Central Bank
key words: European Central Bank; Monetary policy strategy; Monetary policy transparency
first, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank
1
although the Maastricht stipulates that the primary goal of the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability in the euro area, the Treaty does not give a clear definition of price stability. In order to make the target more operational, the ECB management board (also known as the ECB monetary policy committee) gave a quantitative definition of price stability in 1998: the annual growth rate of the consumer price coordination index (HICP) of the whole euro area is no more than 2%, and the price stability can be maintained in the medium term. After nearly five years of monetary policy practice, the ECB management board revised the definition of price stability in 2003: in the medium term, the annual growth rate of CPI inflation is lower than but close to 2%< From this definition, we can see that: (1) the ECB's judgment of price stability is based on the price level of the whole euro zone in the medium term. There is a time lag in the impact of changes in monetary policy on prices, and the final extent of the impact is uncertain. Therefore, it is difficult for monetary policy to offset the impact of unexpected shocks on prices in the short term. Some short-term fluctuations in the inflation rate are inevitable, and monetary policy will not be adjusted e to short-term price or inflation changes in weeks or months, Monetary policy focuses on the medium term 2) The annual growth rate of HICP is lower than but close to 2%, which not only sets the upper limit for the inflation rate of HICP, but also points out that deflation and price stability are incompatible
giving a clear quantitative definition of price stability not only helps to increase the transparency of monetary policy, but also provides a standard for the public to supervise; It not only helps the public to better understand the monetary policy framework, but also more effectively guide the public's expectations of the price trend. It not only enhances the credibility of the single monetary policy, but also improves the effectiveness of the single monetary policy
2
economic analysis and monetary analysis constitute the monetary policy framework of the ECB. Within this framework, the ECB collects all kinds of information for the formulation and adjustment of monetary policy, and makes full use of all kinds of analysis tools to ensure that all relevant information will not be omitted, so as to ensure the robustness of monetary policy decision-making. The two pillar strategy is not only different from the monetary policy framework of inflation target, but also different from the traditional method of using money supply or exchange rate as "nominal anchor"< (1) economic analysis. It mainly refers to the analysis of short-term risks that affect price stability based on a large number of economic and financial data. The analysis is based on the following understanding: the change of price level in the short term is largely determined by the supply and demand of goods, services and factor markets. Therefore, the main variables concerned by the ECB are: changes in aggregate demand, aggregate output and labor market, changes in generalized price and cost index, changes in fiscal policy, conditions of capital market and labor market, changes in the balance of payments of the euro area, etc< (2) currency analysis. This paper focuses on the medium and long term analysis, which is based on the fact that the growth rate of money supply is closely related to the change of inflation rate in the medium and long term. The change of currency contains the information of future price change, so it is helpful to make an overall assessment of the risk of price stability. The ECB selects money supply indicators from a series of alternative indicators and publishes the reference value of M3 growth rate of broad money, which clearly shows its intention of monetary analysis to the public. A lot of empirical analysis shows that there is a stable relationship between m3 and price level and other macro variables. M3 also predicts future inflation, especially in the medium term<
the ECB will evaluate, repeatedly check and summarize the information obtained from the two column strategy to form an overall assessment of the degree and nature of economic fluctuation, the results of economic operation and the main risks of price stability, so as to provide a strong basis for the formulation of monetary policy. Through the information exchange framework, the public can understand the complex environment faced by the ECB in formulating monetary policy, know what factors the ECB has considered in formulating monetary policy, and what proceres it has adopted to make monetary policy decisions< 3. Pay attention to the communication function of monetary policy strategy
transparent monetary policy requires the central bank to provide the public and the market with decision-making related information, the proceres adopted in policy-making, the data used and the factors considered, and to effectively communicate with the public on the current economic situation. All of these can be carried out in an open, clear and timely state
the communication of ECB is faced with a multicultural environment. There are 12 different countries and 10 different languages in the euro area, which undoubtedly challenge the ECB's monetary policy communication. The ECB emphasizes effective communication and interaction with the public to ensure that the public can better understand the formulation process and basis of monetary policy, so as to improve the credibility of the central bank and the transmission efficiency of monetary policy. In order to make the public better understand the monetary policy, the ECB transmits the monetary policy information to the public through various channels:
(1) the press conference after the first meeting of the monetary policy committee every month is the most important way of communication for the ECB. The ECB was the first central bank to hold a press conference. At the press conference, the president of the ECB will introce to the public in detail the Management Council's analysis of the current economic situation and the risk assessment of price stability related to monetary policy, and inform the public of other issues and decisions discussed by the Management Council. Participants can also interact with the press spokesman. The written materials of the press conference will also be published on the ECB's website on the same day, so that these monetary policy information can be timely presented to the public
(2) the ECB publishes "Monthly Bulletin" every month, which publishes all statistical information and data on which monetary policy decisions are based to the public, and also provides experts' analysis articles on monetary policy. In addition, the ECB president reports to the economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament on the implementation of the ECB's monetary policy every quarter and answers relevant questions. The ECB also submits its annual report to the European Parliament every year
(3) the president, vice president and other members of the monetary policy committee of the ECB make full use of various opportunities to communicate with the public, elaborate the ECB's monetary policy strategy and analysis framework, and constantly improve the credibility of the ECB's monetary policy. Exchanges include regular media interviews, participation in global and regional economic and financial forums, and lectures at universities around the world. The speeches and speeches of members of the monetary policy committee, the analytical articles of researchers, and the policy research results of wide public concern can be found on the website of the ECB and its published papers and special issues< 4. Pay attention to the research function of the central bank
the objective of ECB economic research is to provide strong theoretical and empirical support for monetary policy decision-making on the one hand, and to better serve the communication between ECB and the public and the market on the other hand<
the economic research of ECB is carried out in various forms: working paper mainly encourages the research on the relevant issues of ECB monetary policy, including not only the phased achievements of ECB researchers, but also the research on monetary policy by some experts and scholars in academic circles. These articles can be obtained free of charge on the ECB website, which is very helpful for the public to understand the ECB's monetary policy. At the same time, ECB also uses a large number of macroeconomic models to analyze and forecast the euro area economy and different countries in the euro area, so as to provide more reliable forecast information for monetary policy decision-making. In view of the problems of European capital market and financial integration, the economic cycle change of euro area and so on, ECB has established an extensive research network. In addition, the ECB and the US Federal Reserve hold international monetary policy forums in turn to encourage discussion of monetary policy related issues from a global perspective< Second, the enlightenment to the operation of China's monetary policy
1. Further improve the independence of China's central bank
enhancing the independence of the central bank is the basic direction of the reform of monetary control mechanism in various countries. Practice has proved that the independence of the central bank has a great influence on its monetary policy operation. The central bank with strong independence has achieved good results in formulating and implementing monetary policy and curbing inflation
the Maryo gives the ECB the independence of monetary policy objectives, and the ECB also has the independence of tools, finance and personnel, so it provides the institutional guarantee for the ECB to carry out monetary policy operation independently< After more than 10 years of development, the independence of the people's Bank of China has been greatly improved, but it is still restricted by many factors. From the perspective of goal independence, although the law of the people's Bank of China clearly stipulates that "the goal of monetary policy is to maintain the stability of currency value and promote economic growth", China's monetary policy is still subject to multi-objective constraints: price stability, increasing employment, promoting economic growth, maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate, resolving financial risks and so on. From the perspective of operational independence, there are also some constraints, such as the underdeveloped financial market, the small choice of monetary policy tools, the excessive dependence of monetary policy on the transmission of state-owned commercial banks and so on
there is a conflict between multiple objectives, which makes the monetary policy decision-making of the central bank quite difficult. In the process of economic transition, the multi-objective constraints of monetary policy will exist for a long time, so it is more difficult to improve the independence of objectives than operation. Under the current institutional arrangement, we should further improve the operational independence of the central bank, vigorously develop the financial market, especially the money market, actively promote the marketization of interest rates, and constantly improve the marketization of monetary policy tools, operational targets and intermediary target variables, so as to make the monetary policy operation of the people's Bank of China more flexible and forward-looking, To create conditions for the preventive operation of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy< 2. Establish a more flexible monetary policy framework as soon as possible
there is a common defect in using instrumental variables such as interest rate, exchange rate or money supply as intermediary targets, that is, the flexibility of monetary policy is poor. Because of this, the vast majority of countries do not simply restore the interest rate target after abandoning the money supply target, but more and more use the inflation target as a non instrumental variable target. That is to say, monetary policy operation directly focuses on the inflation rate, and takes other important economic variables such as money supply, interest rate, economic prosperity index and so on as monitoring indicators
after examining the monetary policy strategies adopted or being adopted by some other central banks, the European Central Bank decided to adopt the monetary policy strategy aiming at stability
key words: European Central Bank; Monetary policy strategy; Monetary policy transparency
first, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank
1
although the Maastricht stipulates that the primary goal of the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability in the euro area, the Treaty does not give a clear definition of price stability. In order to make the target more operational, the ECB management board (also known as the ECB monetary policy committee) gave a quantitative definition of price stability in 1998: the annual growth rate of the consumer price coordination index (HICP) of the whole euro area is no more than 2%, and the price stability can be maintained in the medium term. After nearly five years of monetary policy practice, the ECB management board revised the definition of price stability in 2003: in the medium term, the annual growth rate of CPI inflation is lower than but close to 2%< From this definition, we can see that: (1) the ECB's judgment of price stability is based on the price level of the whole euro zone in the medium term. There is a time lag in the impact of changes in monetary policy on prices, and the final extent of the impact is uncertain. Therefore, it is difficult for monetary policy to offset the impact of unexpected shocks on prices in the short term. Some short-term fluctuations in the inflation rate are inevitable, and monetary policy will not be adjusted e to short-term price or inflation changes in weeks or months, Monetary policy focuses on the medium term 2) The annual growth rate of HICP is lower than but close to 2%, which not only sets the upper limit for the inflation rate of HICP, but also points out that deflation and price stability are incompatible
giving a clear quantitative definition of price stability not only helps to increase the transparency of monetary policy, but also provides a standard for the public to supervise; It not only helps the public to better understand the monetary policy framework, but also more effectively guide the public's expectations of the price trend. It not only enhances the credibility of the single monetary policy, but also improves the effectiveness of the single monetary policy
2
economic analysis and monetary analysis constitute the monetary policy framework of the ECB. Within this framework, the ECB collects all kinds of information for the formulation and adjustment of monetary policy, and makes full use of all kinds of analysis tools to ensure that all relevant information will not be omitted, so as to ensure the robustness of monetary policy decision-making. The two pillar strategy is not only different from the monetary policy framework of inflation target, but also different from the traditional method of using money supply or exchange rate as "nominal anchor"< (1) economic analysis. It mainly refers to the analysis of short-term risks that affect price stability based on a large number of economic and financial data. The analysis is based on the following understanding: the change of price level in the short term is largely determined by the supply and demand of goods, services and factor markets. Therefore, the main variables concerned by the ECB are: changes in aggregate demand, aggregate output and labor market, changes in generalized price and cost index, changes in fiscal policy, conditions of capital market and labor market, changes in the balance of payments of the euro area, etc< (2) currency analysis. This paper focuses on the medium and long term analysis, which is based on the fact that the growth rate of money supply is closely related to the change of inflation rate in the medium and long term. The change of currency contains the information of future price change, so it is helpful to make an overall assessment of the risk of price stability. The ECB selects money supply indicators from a series of alternative indicators and publishes the reference value of M3 growth rate of broad money, which clearly shows its intention of monetary analysis to the public. A lot of empirical analysis shows that there is a stable relationship between m3 and price level and other macro variables. M3 also predicts future inflation, especially in the medium term<
the ECB will evaluate, repeatedly check and summarize the information obtained from the two column strategy to form an overall assessment of the degree and nature of economic fluctuation, the results of economic operation and the main risks of price stability, so as to provide a strong basis for the formulation of monetary policy. Through the information exchange framework, the public can understand the complex environment faced by the ECB in formulating monetary policy, know what factors the ECB has considered in formulating monetary policy, and what proceres it has adopted to make monetary policy decisions< 3. Pay attention to the communication function of monetary policy strategy
transparent monetary policy requires the central bank to provide the public and the market with decision-making related information, the proceres adopted in policy-making, the data used and the factors considered, and to effectively communicate with the public on the current economic situation. All of these can be carried out in an open, clear and timely state
the communication of ECB is faced with a multicultural environment. There are 12 different countries and 10 different languages in the euro area, which undoubtedly challenge the ECB's monetary policy communication. The ECB emphasizes effective communication and interaction with the public to ensure that the public can better understand the formulation process and basis of monetary policy, so as to improve the credibility of the central bank and the transmission efficiency of monetary policy. In order to make the public better understand the monetary policy, the ECB transmits the monetary policy information to the public through various channels:
(1) the press conference after the first meeting of the monetary policy committee every month is the most important way of communication for the ECB. The ECB was the first central bank to hold a press conference. At the press conference, the president of the ECB will introce to the public in detail the Management Council's analysis of the current economic situation and the risk assessment of price stability related to monetary policy, and inform the public of other issues and decisions discussed by the Management Council. Participants can also interact with the press spokesman. The written materials of the press conference will also be published on the ECB's website on the same day, so that these monetary policy information can be timely presented to the public
(2) the ECB publishes "Monthly Bulletin" every month, which publishes all statistical information and data on which monetary policy decisions are based to the public, and also provides experts' analysis articles on monetary policy. In addition, the ECB president reports to the economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament on the implementation of the ECB's monetary policy every quarter and answers relevant questions. The ECB also submits its annual report to the European Parliament every year
(3) the president, vice president and other members of the monetary policy committee of the ECB make full use of various opportunities to communicate with the public, elaborate the ECB's monetary policy strategy and analysis framework, and constantly improve the credibility of the ECB's monetary policy. Exchanges include regular media interviews, participation in global and regional economic and financial forums, and lectures at universities around the world. The speeches and speeches of members of the monetary policy committee, the analytical articles of researchers, and the policy research results of wide public concern can be found on the website of the ECB and its published papers and special issues< 4. Pay attention to the research function of the central bank
the objective of ECB economic research is to provide strong theoretical and empirical support for monetary policy decision-making on the one hand, and to better serve the communication between ECB and the public and the market on the other hand<
the economic research of ECB is carried out in various forms: working paper mainly encourages the research on the relevant issues of ECB monetary policy, including not only the phased achievements of ECB researchers, but also the research on monetary policy by some experts and scholars in academic circles. These articles can be obtained free of charge on the ECB website, which is very helpful for the public to understand the ECB's monetary policy. At the same time, ECB also uses a large number of macroeconomic models to analyze and forecast the euro area economy and different countries in the euro area, so as to provide more reliable forecast information for monetary policy decision-making. In view of the problems of European capital market and financial integration, the economic cycle change of euro area and so on, ECB has established an extensive research network. In addition, the ECB and the US Federal Reserve hold international monetary policy forums in turn to encourage discussion of monetary policy related issues from a global perspective< Second, the enlightenment to the operation of China's monetary policy
1. Further improve the independence of China's central bank
enhancing the independence of the central bank is the basic direction of the reform of monetary control mechanism in various countries. Practice has proved that the independence of the central bank has a great influence on its monetary policy operation. The central bank with strong independence has achieved good results in formulating and implementing monetary policy and curbing inflation
the Maryo gives the ECB the independence of monetary policy objectives, and the ECB also has the independence of tools, finance and personnel, so it provides the institutional guarantee for the ECB to carry out monetary policy operation independently< After more than 10 years of development, the independence of the people's Bank of China has been greatly improved, but it is still restricted by many factors. From the perspective of goal independence, although the law of the people's Bank of China clearly stipulates that "the goal of monetary policy is to maintain the stability of currency value and promote economic growth", China's monetary policy is still subject to multi-objective constraints: price stability, increasing employment, promoting economic growth, maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate, resolving financial risks and so on. From the perspective of operational independence, there are also some constraints, such as the underdeveloped financial market, the small choice of monetary policy tools, the excessive dependence of monetary policy on the transmission of state-owned commercial banks and so on
there is a conflict between multiple objectives, which makes the monetary policy decision-making of the central bank quite difficult. In the process of economic transition, the multi-objective constraints of monetary policy will exist for a long time, so it is more difficult to improve the independence of objectives than operation. Under the current institutional arrangement, we should further improve the operational independence of the central bank, vigorously develop the financial market, especially the money market, actively promote the marketization of interest rates, and constantly improve the marketization of monetary policy tools, operational targets and intermediary target variables, so as to make the monetary policy operation of the people's Bank of China more flexible and forward-looking, To create conditions for the preventive operation of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy< 2. Establish a more flexible monetary policy framework as soon as possible
there is a common defect in using instrumental variables such as interest rate, exchange rate or money supply as intermediary targets, that is, the flexibility of monetary policy is poor. Because of this, the vast majority of countries do not simply restore the interest rate target after abandoning the money supply target, but more and more use the inflation target as a non instrumental variable target. That is to say, monetary policy operation directly focuses on the inflation rate, and takes other important economic variables such as money supply, interest rate, economic prosperity index and so on as monitoring indicators
after examining the monetary policy strategies adopted or being adopted by some other central banks, the European Central Bank decided to adopt the monetary policy strategy aiming at stability
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