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Research on China's monetary policy and fiscal policy

[Abstract] macroeconomics has learned GDP, CPI and other indicators to measure the operation of macro-economy, and also learned policy tools to reasonably adjust the direction of economic operation and promote stable economic development by using monetary policy and fiscal policy according to the economic operation situation, Firstly, this paper collects the CPI data of each month in 2008 and the GDP data of each quarter in 2008, so as to reflect the economic operation in 2008. At the same time, combined with the monetary policy of the central bank and the national fiscal policy in 2008, this paper studies the policy with the knowledge of macroeconomics, In view of the time lag of the policy, this paper finally verifies the implementation effect of the policy by analyzing the macroeconomic data in the first quarter of 2009

key words macroeconomic CPI GDP data fiscal policy monetary policy China's domestic and international economic environment and economic operation in 2008

quarterly GDP data in 2008

quarterly
first quarter
second quarter
third quarter
fourth quarter

GDP
10.6%
10.1%
9.0%
8.5%

monthly CPI data in 2008

January
February
March
April
may
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

CPI
7.1%
8.7%
8.3%
8.5%
7.7%
7.1%
6.3%
4.9%
4.6%
4.0%
2%

2008 is an extraordinary year for China, In 2008, China's economy was covered with a layer of fog. The 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake caused huge economic losses to China's economy. The disaster of low temperature, rain, snow and freezing at least caused the national instrial growth rate to fall by 1.5 percentage points, lowered the GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points in the first quarter of 2008, and pushed up the CPI growth rate by 0.3 percentage points. The Wenchuan earthquake may pull down the national instrial proction growth rate by 0.3 percentage points, It may rece the GDP growth rate by 0.4-0.7 percentage points in 2008. The Beijing Olympic Games involves seven cities, including Beijing, Qing, Qinhuang, Shenyang, Tianjin, Shanghai and Hong Kong. A series of activities to improve the air quality of the host city and prevent potential safety hazards in proction limit the economic development<

International: since the financial crisis broke out in the United States in the second half of 2007, it has been spreading all over the world. As the financial crisis finally spread to the real economy, the impact of the financial crisis on China in the second half of 2008 is particularly obvious, especially in the impact on China's exports. China is the "world factory" of manufacturing instry, and there is also "made in China" in society, Research shows that every 1% decline in US GDP growth rate will lead to an average decrease of 5.2% in China's export growth rate. Under the influence of the financial crisis, the world's consumption desire has declined sharply. However, China's GDP has been growing at a double-digit rate for several consecutive years, and exports account for a considerable proportion of the troika driving economic growth. China's economy has become an export-oriented economy, and the impact of the economic crisis on China has proved this, In 2007, the contribution rate of China's net exports to economic growth reached 21.5%, driving GDP growth by 2.5%. In the first three quarters of 2008, the contribution rate of net exports to economic growth was 12.5%, driving GDP by 1.2 percentage points, indicating that the contribution of exports to economic growth decreased significantly< Second, economic operation indicators and macroeconomic policies

macroeconomics has learned GDP, CPI and other indicators reflecting economic operation. GDP refers to the total market value of all final procts (goods and services) proced in a certain period of time (usually one year) economy (a country or region). CPI is a measure of the total cost of goods and services purchased by ordinary consumers, which reflects the level of living costs of consumers. Macroeconomic policy includes monetary policy and fiscal policy. Monetary policy tools include open market business, discount rate, legal reserve rate, etc. fiscal policy tools include tax, transfer payment, etc. in 2008, e to the rapid economic changes, these economic terms appeared in front of us from time to time. The Chinese government also used monetary policy and fiscal policy to adjust economic fluctuations, To promote stable economic development< In 2008, the monetary and fiscal policies corresponding to the economic operation were adjusted in the form of "roller coaster". First, "deceleration" (anti overheating and anti inflation), then "shifting" (one guarantee and one control), then "turning" (ensuring growth and expanding domestic demand), and finally almost "turning" (preventing recession and deflation). Both monetary policy and fiscal policy have been greatly adjusted< According to the monetary policy, the CPI reached 7.1% in January 2008, and the overheating phenomenon was obvious. In January 2008, the central bank decided to increase the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points. However, in February 2008, the CPI reached 8.7%, a new high for many years. After that, the CPI was above 8% for several consecutive months, indicating that China's economic development has been overheated. The central bank raised the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points three times in March, April and may. In June, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions was raised by 1 percentage point, and the payment was made by 0.5 percentage point on June 15 and 25, 2008, respectively. According to the CPI data of each month in 2008, as well as the frequent and increasing tightening monetary policy issued by the central bank, it shows that the inflation pressure in the first half of 2008 was so great that the economy was obviously overheated. In 2008, CPI began to decline in July, which indicates that China's macroeconomic policy began to achieve results. However, at the same time, China's economy began to show the impact of the international financial crisis. Domestic exports declined, consumption desire dropped sharply, and domestic demand was seriously insufficient. Monetary policy has been adjusted since July 2008. First, rece the impact of the open market, successively stop issuing three-year central bank bills, rece the issuance frequency of one-year and three-month central bank bills, and guide the interest rate of central bank bills to appropriately decline to ensure the supply of liquidity. Second, the benchmark interest rate was lowered for three consecutive times in September and October, and the deposit reserve ratio was lowered twice to release the signal of ensuring economic growth and stabilizing market expectations. Third, the restriction on the credit planning of commercial banks has been removed. Fourth, financial institutions should be encouraged to increase loans for reconstruction, agriculture, rural areas and small and medium-sized enterprises. Fifth, we will expand the downward range of commercial personal housing loan interest rates, and support residents to purchase ordinary self owned housing and improved ordinary housing for the first time< A simple analysis of the IS-LM curve of monetary policy in 2008 (assuming that the is curve remains unchanged)

in the first half of 2008, the central bank continuously increased the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions and implemented the tightening monetary policy, as shown in the figure from (1) to (2), so as to move the LM Curve to the upper left, so as to raise interest rates and restrain investment, Prevention and control of economic overheating

(1) (2)

in the second half of 2008, affected by the international economic crisis, foreign demand shrank sharply and domestic consumption was insufficient, so the central bank turned to implement active monetary policy, which is reflected in (2) to (1)< In 2008, the fiscal revenue increased by 35.5% in the first quarter, 31.4% in the second quarter, 10.5% in the third quarter, 0.3% in October, and 3.1% in November. In November, the growth rates of domestic value-added tax, enterprise income tax, import and export tax and stamp tax all decreased, and the fiscal revenue in November was in deficit of 146.2 billion yuan, It shows that under the influence of the international economic crisis, under the circumstances of the sharp decline of external demand and the serious shortage of domestic demand, China implements the expansionary fiscal policy. In the first half of 2008, e to investors' uncertainty about the prospects of economic development, China's stock market, as a barometer of China's economy, once fell. In order to boost investors' confidence, with the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation decided to adjust the stamp ty rate for securities (stock) trading from the current 3 ‰ to 1 ‰ from April 24, 2008, In the second half of the year, the State Council announced on November 10, 2008 a fiscal stimulus plan to invest 4 trillion yuan in the next two years (by the end of 2010). Studying macroeconomics, we know that in the expenditure method of calculating GDP, GDP = C + I + G, so increasing government investment can directly increase GDP. At the same time, we should also see that the policy has a time lag, and the 4 trillion investment is mostly used for infrastructure construction, so the impact on the economy cannot be immediate, But in the current economic downturn, it plays a very important role in boosting people's confidence< A simple analysis of the IS-LM curve of fiscal policy in 2008 (assuming that the LM Curve remains unchanged)

as shown in the figure, the state adjusts taxes through fiscal means and increases government expenditure, thus promoting the is curve to move up and to the right, thereby increasing national income

R

y

of course, the fiscal policy is implemented at the same time as the monetary policy. If we assume that LM Curve does not move and only consider the movement of is, we will find that the movement of is increases y and the interest rate also rises, which will affect investment, This is not feasible in the case of economic depression, but the fact is that, as mentioned above, China implemented an active monetary policy in the second half of 2008. The coordinated implementation of monetary policy and fiscal policy makes the interest rate not rise too much while the national income increases (as shown in the figure)

R

y y


Fourth, from the macroeconomic operation data in the first quarter of 2009, China implemented expansionary monetary policy and active fiscal policy in the second half of 2008 to cope with the international financial crisis and the recession of domestic economy, In view of the time lag of the policy, we use the macroeconomic data in the first quarter of 2009 to explore the effect of the policy< In the first quarter of 2009, GDP grew by 6.1%, CPI and PPI were still negative, but the decline rate narrowed. Some experts believe that China's economy has reached a low point, and China's economy may take the lead in recovery

business climate index the results of the national business climate survey released by the National Bureau of statistics in the first quarter of 2009 showed that the confidence of entrepreneurs picked up, and the decline of the national business climate index in the first quarter also showed signs of narrowing. The survey showed that the confidence index of entrepreneurs in the first quarter of this year was 101.1, an increase of 6.5 points over the previous quarter; The national business climate index was 105.6, which was 1.4 points lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year, but the decline was significantly narrower than that in the third quarter of last year, which was 21.6 points lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year“ Enterprises are the cells of the economy. The recovery of entrepreneurs' confidence index and the obvious narrowing of the decline of enterprise prosperity index show positive signs of China's economic operation from the perspective of procers. " Cai Zhizhou, a researcher at the national accounts research center of Peking University, said. Affected by the impact of the international financial crisis and the domestic economic cycle, China's entrepreneur confidence and business climate index once declined sharply: the entrepreneur confidence index dropped sharply from 123.8 in the third quarter of last year to 94.6 in the fourth quarter, and the business climate index dropped sharply from 128.6 in the third quarter of last year to 107.0 in the fourth quarter. Entrepreneur confidence index

7. 1000 won equals 8.33 yuan
since 1 US dollar equals 960 won and 8.0015 yuan, 1 won equals 0.008334 yuan and 1 yuan equals 119.9775 won.

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